aznbluff NHL with writeups

[aznbluff]

Parlay

Boston -135
Flyers/Bruins UNDER 5.5 -125

This game is tough to call. I actually like Philly straight at ~+130 but if the Bruins win then its 80+% of the time going to be because Thomas was good and they played to their system and played stellar team defense. The odds for Bruins+Under is too sexy to pass up.

Philly comes into the season after a big whirlwind of an offseason and they are going to be juggling to try to find some chemistry early.

One (kinda key) roster move is sending Brayden Schenn (key piece of the Richards deal) down in order to save cap. By spending 1 day down at AHL level, the Flyers save over $1M in cap off Schenn's bonuses. So he will miss the first game of the year due to cap reasons.

This leaves 2011 draft pick Sean Couturier to center line 3. I like Couturier, actually, but he's not ready to take on third line center duties on a deep team. He has the tools but he needs the experience right now. Couple this with the fact that he is going to be flanked by 25-year old undrafted 5'10 rookie Matt Read, it could be a night where their 3rd line will be dominated puck-possesion-wise. This is especially true against teams that are not so top heavy, but rather balanced, as the Bruins are. Against top-heavy teams you can shelter a rookie line like this and break them in slowly, but that won't be possible against the Bruins, who can roll 3 (even 4) lines effectively. Philly is breaking up Hartnell-Briere in order to try to add some balance to this line, but Hartnell really isnt an anchor type player, he needs to be doing the ditry grinding and needs playmakers and shooters on his line.

Their first two lines are questions too (not neccessarily a bad thing). It will take some games to see how JVR-Giroux-Jagr compliment each other. Just looking at player types, they should work out very well. Ditto for Simm-Briere-Jake (this line needs more of a pure shooter).

Boston returns their Cup winning core with minimal turnover. They were not the best team last year, but it's a solid roster nonetheless. There are literally no weaknesses, which is their biggest strength. They are average-above average at most every position, with elite level goaltending. This team beat Philly convincingly in the playoffs and returns to face a revamped (for the better or not is the question) Flyers team. On paper, Boston has more depth at FW, outclasses Philly in goal still, but is outclassed on the backend.

Tough call on this game, but like I said, if Boston wins it's probably going UNDER the total of 5.5, so parlaying the two events is very solid for a return of 2.33-1.

Parlay
Boston -135
Flyers/Bruins UNDER 5.5 -125

Oh and the money bag will be 1 unit, will be 0.5 units.

[TomJSports]

bad start but hang in there. i was on the habs, too. reimer continues to prove me wrong, but i'm still a huge doubter. i love what i saw out of the flyers today, actually have a keeper, and are deep up front. i thought pronger looked terrible and should not be playing 25 min a game. chara and thomas will combine for a lot of wins this year. jagr hasn't lost a step.

[BetterBizness]

Nice write ups bro... GL this season....

[aznbluff]

Ya I was extremely impressed by Grabovski and Seguin. Grabo was clearly a class above everyone on the ice today.

[leafs_ducks]

boss. watcha think abt the early games tmr.. i'm leaning towards LA. opinion?

[aznbluff]

0-2-0 (-3.04)

Heavy juice
Detroit Red Wings -210

Wings are worth their price here. If this game is played mid-season, Detroit would be -260 to -280. I have the game at -250 myself, so I put 2 units on Wings at -210. Detroit should win this game 7/10 times.

I think we are getting a steal at -210 here, books are simply trying to gauge where the market is to start the season, which is why they have reduced limits on straights.

Ottawa begins the year trying to emulate a little bit of the Detroit style of game. Their new head coach is a former Wings Assist. and he will be looking to bring those elements of team play that has made Detroit successful for so long now. The Sens are going to try to play a little more puck possession with pinching, active dmen but, they don't really have the talent up front to play puck possesion. Especially when you match up against the #1 anti-possession team. When you play similar styles with Detroit, you usually get the worst of it.

Detroit outclasses Ottawa at every position. Their forward depth is outstanding and they have the ability to neutralize top end offensive talent as well, across all 3 of their top lines.

Detroit Red Wings -210



Dallas Stars +109

Chicago is coming in without (in my opinion) their arguably best dman from last year as well as their 2nd most effective forward. Their record without Campbell was something like a 75 point pace, compared to the 97 points they finished. Their record without Bolland was only slightly better. These are 2 critical pieces that the Hawks will be missing. Kane is trying a rare stint at 2C to start the year, and a rookie 18 year old will line up with Toews on 1LW. This is not the same team that won the cup. Chicago will have its ups and downs this year.

Dallas D is fairly average, so not a weak spot on the roster. In fact I would say Dallas is fairly average in all positions, which is a pretty good NHL team.
Dallas, I feel will be the same as last year. Ribiero was made for soft 1st line offensive minutes. Flanking him with a good 2-way, defensive possesion winger in Morrow gives good balance to the line. I think this team is barely going to miss Richards. As effective as he is offensively, he is a liability defensively. At ES, they are probably better now without him. Eriksson (their best player in my opinion) drops to line 2 to make a very reliable and solid 2-way 2nd scoring/shutdown line (this should be their best line this year).

Dallas Stars +109

[sheffield77]

azn is this your first year doing write-ups? and if not how have you fared in the past years unit wise?

[jose21_us]

I really dont like dallas to much here tonight but gl...

[aznbluff]

2-2-0 (+0.05)
Saturday
Rangers -102

The Rangers have solid depth at forward, being able to roll 4 legit NHL lines the whole game. The Duck's main weakness is their forward depth. They have one elite level line (RPG) and another average line. The RPG line played waaay too many minutes today, especially for an opening night game. These guys are just getting back into game shape. The Rangers spread out the ice time decently, a product of their forward depth, which should keep their FWs fresher going into the end of tomorrows game.

Both teams are missing key defenders, but the Rangers, again, have the depth to mask some of those weaknesses. The Ducks D is very below average at ES. Fowler is very overrated right now because he is young and he is electric offensively. He is a liability every time he hits the ice at ES though. He is dynamite on the PP though. The Ducks are going to live and die by the powerplay for most of this season. On the bigger Euro rinks, there is less of a need for obstruction and closing space, which should result in fewer penalties on average. This plays in favor of the Rangers.

Hiller and Lundqvist are a wash, both are elite level goalies.

[aznbluff]

St. Louis Blues -115
To me, the Blues are set to take the next step this year into contender status. They have 4 legitimate above-average to good FW lines and an average D core (including an absolute mega-stud in Pie). Goaltending is average also.

People usually take average with a negative connotation but I see it as very positive. There are no weak spots on that roster. They will roll 4 lines similarly to the Preds, but I feel that St. Louis has an advantage on every single matchup at FW. So they will try to play similarly but the Blues will outclass Nashville, similar to Detroit-Ottawa today.

Of course, Nashville has a stud dcore and overall great team defense. However, their strength is probably that top pairing of Weber-Suter, which is great for shutting down and overcoming 1 line teams (like Anaheim in the playoffs) but they can't be on the ice all the time against teams that roll 4 lines of basically equivalent depth.

Couple this with the fact that we are probably going to see Lindback in this game instead of Rinne, I think the Blues are worthy of a price closer to -150 than the -115 we get it at.

I'm going to be betting the Blues often to start this year, as Im loving this team, while its still unknown to casual fans.

[aznbluff]

Adding
San Jose Sharks -180
I can't believe the line actually dropped overnight on this game. Repeating from an earlier post about Phx:
Phoenix got significantly worse this offseason. For a team built on team defense and goaltending, they downgraded the most important position into the worst tandem in the league.
They also dropped defensive stay at home dman Jovo and are going to be inserting some youthful offensive dmen into the fold. Ekman-Larsson will probably see top 4 minutes this year which is a lot of pressure to put on your dcore as a whole when you dont have the goaltending to back it up. OEL is going to be a good 1-2 offensive punch with Yandle but both of them are average at best reading the defensive game right now.
They were built to win games 3-1, 2-1 but now they will have to win some high scoring matches. They don't have the offensive firepower to keep up in these situations. Their two best FWs Doan and Hanzal both excel defensively, but will be looked at to bring more and more offense now, something that does not play to their strengths.

San Jose is loaded at every position now. They have one of the strongest 1st, 2nd, and 3rd lines in the game, and an average 4th line. Their top 4 D are loaded with talent and balance. Even their third pairing is above average. Their only weak spot is in goal, but Niemi is still a class above Mike Smith. This game will be priced over -300 by mid-season, as it should be.

[sheffield77]

damn the prices are like 40 cents worse now? wheere you play that you got those prices

[aznbluff]

Pinnacle, those were last nights prices at time of my post

[Deol]

I like the St. Louis and SJ plays. Thoughts on Philadelphia over NJ in regulation? Also Hiller is good, not elite, Lundqvist > Hiller

[aznbluff]

No thoughts on that game so far. I havnt seen Larsson play a game yet and know only what everyone else knows from the hype. Critical knowledge for someone who is going to be playing a key role on that team. Probably will see 20 minutes including PP1 time.

Lundqvist is my favorite goalie but Hiller is right there at his level. I agree its a slight slight edge to Lundqvist, he is a little more mobile side to side and a little quicker to his feet.

[Deol]

kk thx, I put a small play on PHI and DET in regulation. Whats wierd for me is, I follow the NHL religously, then the NFL, and finally the NBA. But my success is the exact opposite. Usually make money on NBA, usually break-even or down slightly on NFL, and almost always down on the NHL. Do you follow certain people? (on this forum or elsewhere). I'm thinking of tailing this guy who I followed last year and ke killed it. But I don't like paying for picks. Also what sites do you use for your research. Thx in advance!!

[aznbluff]

No I dont follow people, and I dont research...
I just go off my knowledge of the game and individual players
I have my own metric that values players which I pay some attention to but I mostly just value players differently that most people. For example I value a Patrick Sharp similarly to a Pascal Dupuis but people are going to be busting their nuts at Sharps offensive numbers.

[815Sox]

2-2-0 (+0.05)
Saturday
Rangers -102

The Rangers have solid depth at forward, being able to roll 4 legit NHL lines the whole game. The Duck's main weakness is their forward depth. They have one elite level line (RPG) and another average line. The RPG line played waaay too many minutes today, especially for an opening night game. These guys are just getting back into game shape. The Rangers spread out the ice time decently, a product of their forward depth, which should keep their FWs fresher going into the end of tomorrows game.

Both teams are missing key defenders, but the Rangers, again, have the depth to mask some of those weaknesses. The Ducks D is very below average at ES. Fowler is very overrated right now because he is young and he is electric offensively. He is a liability every time he hits the ice at ES though. He is dynamite on the PP though. The Ducks are going to live and die by the powerplay for most of this season. On the bigger Euro rinks, there is less of a need for obstruction and closing space, which should result in fewer penalties on average. This plays in favor of the Rangers.

Hiller and Lundqvist are a wash, both are elite level goalies.

Gotta disagree with you on the Ducks lack of depth. You didn't mention Selanne and Koivu, that is a pretty decent threat behind the first line. I don't think the Rangers are all that great and being New York are gonna get a little more public money. I am on the Ducks here for a small play. BOL

[aznbluff]

Selanne Koivu Blake are an average 2nd line. Their 3rd and 4th are both below average

[aznbluff]

3-4-0 (-1.27)

Pittsburgh Penguins -132

Alright, finally my Oilers look to kick off the new season! Unfortunately, we suck, potentially worse than last year. Our Dcore is atrocious. We somehow managed to downgrade it over the offseason.
We are starting the year with
Peckham - Gilbert
Sutton - Petry
Barker - Potter

This is, bar-none, the worst defense in the league. Two of our only legit NHL D are injured to start the year in Whitney and Smid. Potter should never touch NHL ice. Barker was arguably the worst Dman in the league last year. Gilbert needs to be sheltered with soft minutes but we have no one capable of doing that.

Compare this to the Penguins D-core, which I feel is top 3-5 in the league and was utterly dominant last night in Calgary. If anyone watched that game, Calgary could not sustain anything at all in the Pittsburgh zone. They couldn't hold it in for more than 10 seconds at a time. A couple brainfarts from Fleury are the only reason they scored 3 goals.

Finally, players like RNH and Hall/Eberle (love em all) are going to be overrated during the first few weeks of the year until people begin to realize how badly we suck still. Hemsky is still our best player bar none, followed probably by Horcoff as much as it sucks to say that. Our center depth is probably bottom 5 again this year and we are without our scoring soft minute center in Gagner. Its tough to line up an 18yr old physically unready center against Malkin-Staal.

[aznbluff]

Habs/Jets UNDER 5.5 -114

Lean Habs at plus money here, I feel they have the advantage at every position, but I think under 5.5 is the better play. If the Habs take the lead, expect them to play lockdown hockey. They are one of the best teams in the league at playing safe with leads. The Jets are spreading out their best dmen onto each of their 3 pairings (including Enstrom-Byfuglien) to try to have more defensive balance rather than offensive firepower. Habs always look to minimalize mistakes and play defensive, possesion hockey, on the backbone of elite goaltending.

You know the Jets are going to come out rocking for their first game of their new franchise. I expect them to come out and treat it like a playoff game. They'll play very physical and in-your-face grinding hockey, something that Montreal preaches to its players also, which usually leads to low scoring games.

[Deol]

GL, I agree with you on MTL-WPG Under, but even with our atrocious D-core, I think "we" pull the upset. Took EDM winning margin by 1 and also by 2. Not sure if you care but hit a nice parlay last night (PHI + DET in reg, + SJ ML). Up for now, will probably be down in a few weeks.

[TheLonePair]

Have to disagree with you on the Edmonton play.

[jose21_us]

I love the penguins tonight. GL.

[kobstopa]

good threat, gl for the season

[TomJSports]

Hey bud, hope you're still around. Like talking hockey with you.

[815Sox]

It has been a weird start that is for sure, I had a few good days, but the last two have been rough. Hope a few loses didn't scare this guy away. Its a grind. I am cutting back on my plays a little bit and the amount I am playing until I get back in the grove. This guy had good insight into the league, he obviously has the knowledge, just has to tweak the way he looks at certain things.

[Yoinkerz]

no plays for a long time. any plays tonite?

[lolguy999]

祝你好运，兄弟

[aznbluff]

Actually, I'm killing it now by not posting in this thread haha. The weekly NHL contest, for example,

http://contests.sbrforum.com/nhl-weekly-handicapping-contest-10-10-contest-2879/

as well as on Pinny.

Im not going to fix whats not broken, so I probably wont be posting plays. But I'll gladly talk hockey and matchups and discussions and stuff. No plays or anything anymore...starting to get superstitious lol

For example, I like the Blues again tomorrow. 1/3 of Ducks 2nd line is out for months now and their top line has been solid and good, but also not scoring. They need to beat the Blues with top end tomorrow because they can't match St. Louis depth, so they need RPG to put points on the board (mostly they need their PP to start clicking). Blues should roll at ES though.

[TomJSports]

Wow, you're doing excellent, bud. Keep doing what you're doing!

[aznbluff]

To quote another thread
I think the Blues are the superior team at FW and D. Ducks have a big edge in goal (about 10 sv% points I'd say). The Blues, however have been dominating opponents in 3/4 of their games. Only last night did they not dominate the play against SJ, because SJ is simply one of the strongest teams, if not the strongest, in the league. Don't let the Blues record fool you, they've outshot their opponents almost 2-1 in their first 3 games and received (statistically unsustainably) terrible goaltending (.850). At anything even at bad quality goaltending the Blues would be 4-0-0 on the year. And again, Halak's numbers are almost statistically impossibly low so expect a turnaround soon.

The Ducks top line similarly has actually been decent to start the year, but has no points to show that. Expect them to start scoring soon, mostly as their PP starts getting more opportunities. However, the Blues have the advantage on lines 2,3,4, which is about 65% of the game. Remember that the top line only plays about 18 minutes of ES, depending on number of PPs. And that top line doesnt outplay the Blues top line as much as (in my opinion) all three of lines 2,3,4 get outplayed by the Blue's bottom 3 lines.

I'd expect the RPG line to produce about 2 goals today but also for the Blues depth to chip away and grind out a win. I think today's best bets are Blues at +129 and the Over at + money also. Parlay the 2 dogs and u get a little over 3-1.

[aznbluff]

Doing very well for myself recently, 2nd straight week of over +15 real units.

http://contests.sbrforum.com/nhl-weekly-handicapping-contest-10-17-contest-2902/

Just been looking at tomorrows card and the only 2 games that jump out at me are San Jose +125 and NYR -123

There are very few teams, if any, that SJS should be a dog against, even on the road. I've stated already that I feel they are the strongest team in the league this season. They dominated the Devils tonight from start to finish but only barely escaped with a 4-3 SO win. As variance evens out and some bounces start going their way, expect some very lopsided results in their favor in the near future. They are much better than 2-3-0 indicated, again I think they are the class of the league.

They match up tomorrow against Boston, who is a very similarly built team to them but with a much superior goaltender. However, SJ has better players in every position except arguably at 2C and 3RW. Team defense also goes to the Sharks, as well as top end FW ability. For a team that is superior in so many categories, getting +125 is a steal tomorrow.

The edge of Thomas over Greiss (likely starter tomorrow) is about 0.6 goals/30 shots. However, expect SJ to dictate pace and gameflow again (42-19 today), so the goaltending advantage does not overcome the difference in skater ability as long as the Sharks outshoot the Bruins by (big math equation involved here) about at most 7 shots. Something in the 33-25 range is very reasonable for tomorrows game at the high end of variance. As fewer and fewer shots are taken, the goaltending advantage is reduced as more variance is introduced. In a 26-21 game (for the Sharks), the skater advantage overcomes the goaltending advantage for example. Only a difference of >4 shots now. This means the Sharks should be close to even money tomorrow with the B's, since these shot frequencies ranges are about 60% for tomorrows game.

Sharks (along with Wings and Blues) are one of the most consistent teams at dictating even strength play and outshooting opponents like this. This is why they can (and the Wings have been) getting by with below average-average goaltenders for a while now. Because once you hit a critical level of shots for-against, your skater advantage overcomes goaltending disadvantages. The better your team defense (hold them to fewer shots) reduces the goaltending disadvantage further than a super high powered offense.

Rangers, I could do a write up for as well but basically...my Oilers suck...we've been outplayed every game (for anyone who's not a homer can see that) and have been riding basically the peak of the good side of variance from a terrible goaltender (Khabby) and a mediocre one (Dubnyk).

[aznbluff]

Both lines moved the right way so far, only other game that is interesting now at the price is Blues +171 against Philly.

I think the Blues have the deeper FW core here, with the Flyers having more top end. I'd give a slight edge to the Blues. I also think the Blues boast the best defender in this game in Pietrangelo, but the Flyers have more quality depth at this position. Skater-wise I think these teams are just about a wash, but again the edge is in net for Philly. Halak is about a 910-912 goaltender and Bryz is one tier below elite (around 918).

Blues are +110 here if they outshoot Philly in the range of {22-20 to 29-26**. So about 2-3 shots. There are a ton of variables and statistics that allow you to calculate puck possision/team defense etc to estimate a good shot range frequency for this game that I won't bother to write out here cause it would fill pages, but the Blues outshooting the Flyers this game by >3 (giving cushion for the high end of variance) happens at over 50% this game. This means that we are getting immense value at +171 here.

The reason people are so down on the Blues as of right now is Halak is rocking a 835 SV%, which would require a shot differential of like {29-20 to 38-25**. Flyers get 25 shots in this game at a frequency >50%, so this (13 point shot range) happens quite frequently too and is very unlikely for the Blues to overcome, thus justifying a bet on the Flyers. Halak isnt a .835 goalie though, no one in the league is that bad.

[aznbluff]

A game I am liking on Monday's card is Montreal Canadiens -135 against Florida. These are two teams with similar systems and styles, locking it down at ES and looking to the PP for offensive production.

Habs have the top end FWs and also the FW depth advantage at both C and W.

Defense, I give the advantage to Florida. They have some of the best defenders that you've never heard of. Jason Garrison and Mike Weaver are actually very good NHL defenseman. I would take these two over a pairing like say Pronger-Carle in Philly. No one even knows that these two play in the NHL though...shows how much exposure Florida gets and how much "knowledgable fans" actually pay attention to them. Picking up Campbell has given them a high level puck-moving defenseman that they were sorely lacking the last few years, as well as a PP quarterback. This is exactly who they needed to get to compliment the more defensive, solid type defenders in Weaver and Garrison. Anyways, that's enough Florida nuthugging, as I'm probably betting against them here.

Price is an elite level goaltender who's been getting shelled early this year. I think he's got the best fundamentals in not only the game today, but the best ever (not saying much since I think there are at least 15 goalies today who are better technically than any goalie pre-lockout). Florida has the next big thing in net, Jacob Markstrom, on the rise, but expect Theodore to get this start. You get about a .006 cushion by taking Montreal this game and I expect it to be a close, tight checking game so that cushion will be huge. Not too much of an edge here at the price of -135, only about 10 cents, but it's the only action on the board next 2 days that I think there is an edge to be found.