aznbluff NHL with writeups

Baqu · 09-17-11, 02:28 PM

GL aznbluff

hope you won't go bankrupt, and will manage to play, and track your own plays all year,
couse, that's what the biggest concern for 90% of the cappers.

aznbluff · 09-17-11, 03:06 PM

yup.

Also, I have been working for some time on my own personal metric that determines player worth to winning hockey games. It doesnt have a name so far but I'm liking the results so far as it coincides with my previous opinion on the top players in the game. Defenders generally have more impact than FWs overall, and centers usually bring more value than wingers. Just for FWs:

My opinion for the top 5 centers Wingers
Crosby ........................ Ovechkin
Datsyuk........................ Nash
Toews ........................ Bobby Ryan
Malkin ........................ St. Louis
Kopitar........................ Backes

By my metric (in very very general simplification, a measure of how well your team does with the player vs without standardized to 60 minutes of ES, factoring in Quality of competition and Quality of teammates, as well as the role you were put in, i.e. given an easy sheltered offensive role vs a tough matchup assignment, and how well you fared at that role). Quite complicated as this is just very generally what it is. Anyway by my metric these are the top players in the league at ES (80% of the game)

Backes 2.470597 (surprisingly, among simply topping the list, beats out all the centers (although he was playing center for a majority of the later part of the year)). I'm definitely going to have to watch more Blues games this year and pay attention to Backes among others. Perhaps I'm (and the world) is severely underrating him.

Crosby 2.091974 (no surprise here, dominant player, he has the lowest Ozone% of all Penguins forwards, even Jordan Staal. Crosby is Selke caliber now, on top of being top 3, probably top 1 offensively in the league.)

Kopitar 1.99398 (also no surprise to me here, but will be to many. Not the sexy pick for a top 5 player in the league, as he'll be beat out by public opinions like Ovy and Stamkos, which is ironic become many value Doughty and Stamkos similarly, while Kopitar is far and away the more valuable player in L.A.) He is also Selke caliber, while being an absolute anchor on whatever line he gets put on (can make that line take power-on-power matchups), with a revolving door of wingers.

Toews 1.80737 (No surprise to most. (general G-A-PTS) statmongers will disagree but Toews crushes every advanced statistic there is basically. It's definitely not a coincidence he was the best player on a stacked Team Canada, by a fair margin, but also Conn Smythed and captained his team to a cup already. Another Selke level player, as witnessed by his nomination last year, the team just fails when he is not on the ice, and excells when he is. The times he is paired with players other than Kane, the Hawks still excell, while the vice versa is not true.

Datsyuk 1.436905 (My favorite player in the league and, in my opinion, has been the best player in the league post-lockout, finally being surpassed by Crosby last year) Anyone who watches hockey has to love this guy, he plays the game perfectly. There is not an aspect of the game that he doesn't play at an elite level, all the while not having any outstanding physical quality. Surprised that he was rated so low on this metric.

Getzlaf 1.37262 (Surprised to see Getzlaf this high. He's a great player but there are others that I would prefer over him)

Backstrom 1.306572 (Im glad my metric churned out Backstrom over Ovy. Backstrom is an absolutely complete player now. He is the best defensive player on the Caps, one of the best defensive teams in the league last year (with average goaltending). His offense is not as explosive as Ovechkin's but he is the better puck possesion player and the Caps do better with him on the ice compared to him off, than with Ovechkin on and off.

Wingers scoring highly on my metric are
Bobby Ryan (1.33093461, glad he scored above Perry. I feel its no question that B.Ryan is the better ES player, but Perry will get all the props now after his Hart season)
Ovechkin (1.1139699)
Daniel Sedin (0.9143307)
Nikolai Kulemin (0.9560038, in my opinion the best player on the Leafs)
Martin St. Louis (1.158351)

DennisGreen · 09-17-11, 03:17 PM

Damn you are one intellectual sir

Glad to see another true hockey fan venture into the world of sports betting.

GL this year

aznbluff · 09-17-11, 03:30 PM

Yea, you as well.

I'm, for the most part, going to be backing the St.Louis Blues for the start of the year quite often as I feel they will be underrated by everyone. On top of Backes (and an elite set of complimentary wingers), a slightly below average #1C in MacDonald (they are preferring to shift Backes here instead, which would definitely make their #1C position above average), I feel that Pietrangelo will be one of (if not the) premiere defenders in the league as early as next year. This guy could be the best dman since Lidstrom (a lot could still go wrong obviously, but the potential is there, not a weakness to his game).

Troubling is that Perron (#2C is not going to start the year, and could miss heavy time), and the rest of the Dcore is either average or inexperienced. Jackman and Polak are solid, solid dmen, but limited in how much they can impact a game in all aspects. Good for 18-23 minutes though. The rest are boom or bust. Nikitin and Cole will be tested and I expect some roadbumps for the Blues this year. Shattenkirk will need to continue to be sheltered, so he can do what he does best, offense.
Throw in Halak, who is an average-slightly below average #1 goaltender and the Blues could have some defensive issues this year. This is why Backes is so valuable. He isn't going to (probably ever) surpass 80 points, but he is always going to collapse down low and take away pressure from his Dmen and even his wingers (and center when he isn't playing there), especially Stewart when they play together, who is a bit of a liability, despite all his goal scoring prowess.

They will probably make some strides next year but not really be a threat until 2012-2013 when both Vlad Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz should be ready to be (Vlad at least) impact players.

TomJSports · 09-17-11, 04:07 PM

Good luck this year!

The Oilers are actually one of my favourite teams to watch. They're a tonne of fun and (usually) have a high scoring game for or against. Hall was coming into form before he got injured in that fight, too. Putting on that weight will have him be even better this year. I'm shocked at how quickly he transitioned with the style game he plays. I liked Eberle's transition to the big leagues, too. I'm still waiting on Pääjärvi-Svensson to be that player I saw in juniors. I went to a couple of Oilers away games and Pääjärvi-Svensson created space and Omark made brilliant back-door passes to him. They just couldn't do it consistently.

But hey, I think the squad looks good this year. Hasn't been too long since your last Cup, so can't be too negative on your boys, yet. Not like my Flyers. But hey, at least they're not the Leafs

TomJSports · 09-17-11, 04:10 PM

I also think Halák becomes that player we saw two years ago in the playoffs. Big reason:

aznbluff · 09-17-11, 04:25 PM

True, I just hope that RNH doesn't make the team because he is not ready (I think he has a good shot to make it though). A guy who is really lighting up camp is Anton Lander, Paajarvi's teammate from Timra, as I'm sure you know. The plan was for him to play a full season in the AHL this year but he is making it extremely difficult for the Oilers to not keep him on the NHL club. Basically, he looks like he doesn't below right now in camp...in a good way. He is beasting. I would prefer to have him as 4C rather than RNH, as not only is he more suited for the role, he is the better player right now (RNH will probably put up bigger numbers though if he plays this year).

Our D is still worrying though, as I said. Most of our fanbase is convinced that Petry is going to be a saviour but I think he is going to be a marginal top 4 dman.
Whitney is completely overrated by our fans also. He put up nice layman stats but was average all year, using advanced stats and just from watching the games.
The rest, just suck. I love Laddy but his game has really regressed. He doesn't even transition-skate the puck up the ice anymore. He is trying to be a "tough, stay-at-home" dman

.
Peckham overperformed last year relative to his skillset and still was a bottom-pairing Dman. He should play himself off the roster in 3-4 years as we improve.
Gilbert needs to be sheltered so he can play a soft, offensive dman role, but we have no one who can shelter him at this point so he will be exposed once again.
Barker, using my metric was -1.094938, which basically means he was one of the worst dmen in the league last year. It wasn't a bad signing since it's only for 1 year, and he does have high draft pedigree, but I'm not expecting too much.
Sutton will continue to be what he is. A fringe bottom pairing dman who will get exposed if facing tough competition in the top 4. He will bring the toughness and grit that the Oilers were looking to add though (which I feel is overrated as hell and not necessary)
Finally, Jason Strudwick is, year in and year out, the worst defenseman in the league. However, I love the guy and most people in Edmonton do too. He's a great guy and great for the lockerroom but his hockey skills are non-existant. I don't really mind him as the 7th dman.

leafs_ducks · 09-17-11, 04:51 PM

It will be interesting to see ur write ups. Gl this yr!

TomJSports · 09-17-11, 06:36 PM

Yeah, I didn't mention that defense for a reason, when Whitney's your top D...well... Have to hope Khabby is good, or the squad has enough goals in them to win a bunch of 6-5 games. Lander's definitely mid first round talent. He and Pääjärvi-Svensson matched well at Timrå. I also think RNH may take a year back to juniors; he doesn't have much to prove in juniors, but damn is he tiny. As a non-Oilers fan, they're still one of my top teams to watch simply due to pure offensive talent.

bigboydan · 09-17-11, 08:28 PM

I am oh so ready for pucks to start.

TheLonePair · 09-18-11, 03:53 PM

Fellow Oilers fan as well. Looking forward to your picks!

roymunson · 09-18-11, 05:33 PM

NHL Preseason is MONEY! I just want to know where do we get the teams as early as possible before the odds drops too much? Last year many games was between A-team against reserves, it was almost NHL-teams against AHL-teams. Many times it was the awayteams who came with the reserves.

aznbluff · 09-18-11, 06:47 PM

Yea, depends on the market and how active they were in the offseason/any prospects etc...

For example, Toronto tomorrow should play a strong lineup and have a really good chance to win. They picked up a (in their mind) number one center for Kessel finally and they want to establish chemistry fast. They will do everything they can to get those two clicking. Their coach, Wilson, said that he wants to skip all the bullshit this year and cut to 26-27 players quickly...he just wants to look at the NHL caliber talent basically. Their 2nd line (and best) from last year remains intact and they should be playing in front of the home crowd. Leafs want to show off for their first preseason game at home. Their fanbases crown jewel is fighting for a spot on the team on the third line and has tweeted that he is loving the chemistry between him and Armstrong and Bozak (take with a grain of salt, everyone would say the same, doesnt really mean anything); but he's feeling good in camp and looking faster than last season (although this isnt his most problematic weakness).

Then you have their D, which I believe to have 7 NHL caliber defenders and there will be stiff competition, so expect some decent performances from (Komisarek, Franson, Gunnarsson) as they try to win a job in the top 6. All three are NHL level but there are only 2 open spots. Aulie apprently is getting pencilled in already after playing alongside Phaneuf to end the year (although I believe he's the worst of the 4).

Riemer has a lot to prove, although Leaf Nation is annointing him the savior already. I, personally, think he's overrated and should stablize out as a .910-915 goalie.

On the other hand, Ottawa is loaded with NHL ready talent, particularlly on the backend. However, I don't expect too many of them to play in this game. I think they will wait for their first home preseason game to debut Rundblad on North American ice. This guy is legit..Karlsson but bigger and more skilled, every bit the skater, but not quite the passer that Karlsson is. Both struggle defensively and will be liabilities for much of the year. Anyway, doesnt matter, he probably wont play.

Alfredsson is still not 100%, he's all but certainly not going to be in. Spezza likely won't play either.

I'm going to wait until lineups are out to do a writeup. Line is Ottawa +140 / Toronto -170. Definitely leaning Toronto here, even with heavy juice, as they really are going to cut down and treat the preseason as a warmup to the regular season compared to Ottawa who will use it as a tryout tool. Again, no play yet, I want to see the rosters for the game.

roymunson · 09-18-11, 07:33 PM

Thank you very much aznbluff for the very good insight! It was a very good angle you have there! When do the lineups use to come out and where first? I will post as soon I hear anything.
I will bet 3-way in regulation time, think we get better value there with lesser juice!

I am from Europe so I use the decimal odds.
The odds is 2,00 (+100) instead of 1,60 (-167) (of course we will hit maybe som lesser bets but many times the team with a-teams will win the most times with a little bit of margin.

TomJSports · 09-18-11, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by aznbluff

Riemer has a lot to prove, although Leaf Nation is annointing him the savior already. I, personally, think he's overrated and should stablize out as a .910-915 goalie.

Leafs Nation

I typically don't do anything until the second or third week of the season, and avoid preseason. With NFL and football friendlies, you have an adequate gauge of what should happen with playing time and rosters. NHL preseason is thought for me because the rosters are so fluid. But, Woody Harrelson, you definitely are right typically teams let their marquee players play the home matches and have essentially an AHL team on the road. I remember I few years back the Phantoms beat the Flyers, though. I'm very interested in the Blue Jackets/Jets home and away on the same night. You have to bet they're each looking to win their home matches.

vitalyo · 09-19-11, 12:34 AM

aznbluff TNX for the write ups

. I back Toronto before i read your trend . I feel much better now .

Originally posted by roymunson

The odds is 2,00 (+100) instead of 1,60 (-167) (of course we will hit maybe som lesser bets but many times the team with a-teams will win the most times with a little bit of margin.

You are talking about 3 way betting and aznbluff is on pick em 0

youwin odds
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators 2.00 3.80 3.10

5dimes odds
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs - Preseason
Mon 9/19 5 Ottawa Senators 2.400
7:00PM 6 Toronto Maple Leafs 1.588

With 3 way betting you are getting better value .
I think 5dimes know better then UK books .

GL.

roymunson · 09-19-11, 05:16 AM

OTTAWA SENATORS ROSTER:

F:
Michalek
Regin
Greening
Smith
Butler
Filatov
Da Costa
Neil
Parrish
Konopka
Lessard
Stone
Hoffman
Foligno
Zibanejad

D:
Rundblad
Cowen
Karlsson
Kuba
Wiercioch
Borowiecki
Gryba
Conboy

G:
Anderson
Auld
Lehner

roymunson · 09-19-11, 05:33 AM

Florida match 2

Upshall-Santorelli-Dadonov

Booth-Kennedy-Repik

Huberdeau-Goc-Hazen

Selleck-Matthias-Skille

Garrison-Gudbranson

Campbell-Yonkman

Robak-Kostka

Clemmenson/Markstrom

Nashville match 2

D 8 Kevin Klein
D 2 Teemu Laakso
D 38 Jack Hillen
D 42 Mattias Ekholm
D 75 Taylor Aronson
D 64 Victor Bartley

C 5 Blake Geoffrion
C 11 David Legwand
C/RW 15 Craig Smith
C 16 Cal O’Reilly
RW 18 Niclas Bergfors
RW 24 Matt Halischuk
RW 27 Patric Hornqvist
RW 45 Ryan Flynn
C 55 Michael Latta
LW 57 Gabriel Bourque
LW 65 Ryan Thang
C/RW 72 Austin Watson

36 Atte Engren
39 Anders Lindback

What do you say people so far...

TomJSports · 09-19-11, 06:19 AM

Can't say I see that Florida lineup scoring on Lindbäck, despite that ugly defense Nashville is fielding. Engren was a solid keeper during his time at TPS, too. Florida's defense is not as ugly, but still bad, though I'm eager to see what Gudbranson can do. Markström, feels like I've been following him for a decade, should be decent. I could also see something crazy like Bergfors scoring an 'eff you Florida' hat trick. Likely I'd say Lindbäck lets in zero, Engren lets in two, Clemmensen lets in two, Markström lets in one. But with those defenses, anything goes.

aznbluff · 09-20-11, 01:23 PM

Oilers vs Hawks in Saskatoon

Smyth - RNH - Eberle
Petrell - Brule - Tremblay
Hamilton - O'Marra - Green
Martindale - Vande Velde - Hartikainen

Smid - Peckham
Chorney - Petry
Potter - Davidson

Dubnyk
Roy

vs

Stalberg-J Toews-Olesz
Beach-Kruger-Smith
Saad-Mayers-Hayes
Danault-McNeill-D Toews

Lepisto-Montador
Lavin-Leddy
Scott-Stanton
Fahey

Salak
Emery

This is a matchup nightmare for the Oilers. Petry is the only dman capable of bringing offense from the backend, it will make it too easy for Toews to simply focus on the forwards down low if he doesnt have to worry about any threats from a high man. Also, the Oilers forwards in this game have literally no ability to shoot ouside of Brule's snap (average) and Eberle's wrist (slightly above average). RNH has a good release on his wrister too but he is just far too raw in the other aspects of the game. I think tonight's game is going to really be an enlightening moment for him in his career, lining up opposite, and shadowed by, J.Toews all night. It'll show him just what he needs to work on to make it to the NHL and succeed.

Leddy and Lepisto are both adequate puck movers for Chicago in this game, and its a great balance to split them apart in the top 4. Montador is the type of Dman that you want to compliment a puckmoving type. I have no idea why the Oilers would pair Smid-Peckham together and leave Petry-Chorney together. Its actually just a ******* retarded idea. I expect the pairings to be Smid-Chorney and Peckham-Petry by the end of the game. Potter and Davidson, I've literally never even heard of, and I probably can name our top 20 prospects by heart. These guys are actually nobodys. I have no idea what they bring but it can't be much.

Saad has had a phenomenal camp with the Hawks (but has almost no chance to make the actual squad), but he is showing why he was a projected top 5 pick, right there with RNH in this draft at the start of the year. He protects the puck and can hold it going down wing and driving the net very similar to Hossa in appearance. On the Oilers side, Hartikainen is a player that I love and think is legit NHL talent. Very similar to Saad in that he's a big body winger who can protect the puck and also grind it down low.

Other than Harty, Brule, Smyth, and Eberle, none of the Oilers forwards are NHL talent at this point, not even 1st overall pick RNH. Hamilton is close. On D, Smid, Peckham with Petry close, are NHL caliber, but all lower end NHL talent. Chorney is just dreadful. And the way the pairings are set up is just a recipe for disaster. Petry-Chorney will absolutely get mauled by any type of power or puck-possesion line, and Smid-Peckham can be exposed by outside speed.

Expect both goalies to play in this game for both sides, and the advantage goes to the Hawks duo. Dubnyk is going to be a good backup in this league, but the Oilers are fruitlessly hoping that he can be their starter in the future. I dont think he has that potential. Roy is nothing NHL level and has finally been surpassed by other prospects in the system. Salak is also going to be a decent backup in the league. Very quick side to side goaltender, havnt seen much of him though. Emery is the most proven of the four. But all he's proven is that he is a good backup goaltender or a poor starter <.910 sv%.

I expect the 2nd line of the Hawks (power line) to have an easy time with the small, slow Oilers forwards. And expect the 1st to outplay the Oilers top line power on power.

5dimes/pinny are my books and they dont have lines up, so no play for me but I'd play this game anything up to -140 for the Hawks. And although basically everything I've said is negative about the Oilers so far, Smyth is probably the best winger in this game, followed by Eberle, but I still expect that line to get outplayed power on power by Stalberg-Toews-Olesz

aznbluff · 09-21-11, 02:46 PM

My first play of the year
Buffalo +100 @ Montreal

0-0-0 +0.00
1.00 to win 1.00

Vanek-Roy-Pominville
Ennis-Leino-Stafford
Gerbe-Adam-Boyes
Foligno-Ellis-Kassian

Ehrhoff-Regehr
Myers-Gragnani
Schiestel-Persson

Miller
Enroth

vs

Gionta-Desharnais-Pacioretty
Darche-Dumont-Avtsin
Gallagher-Engqvist-Moen
Palushaj-Bishop-DeSimone.

Henry - Subban
Beaulieu - Gorges
Spacek - St-Denis

Budaj
Mayer

This is essentially Buffalo's NHL roster. They want to test out all their new toys tonight and try to establish chemistry going forward. Things that they are hoping to see include: how does Leino do at center, a position he has not played yet in the NHL, despite playing it for much of his career. He has been sheltered his whole NHL career by deep deep forward rosters and with established, solid two-way centers in both Detroit and Philly. Buffalo will be feeding him prime offensive minutes on their soft-minute 2nd line.

On D, they are pairing their 2 big acquisitions, which makes sense as they compliment each other well. Ehrhoff is an above average puck moving defenceman with a good first pass and slighty above average transition puck carrying. Regehr lacks mobility so Ehrhoff can cover his weaknesses in that regard. Regehr does excel down lown in the cycle game though, which is Ehrhoff's worst aspect. So a nice little balance of weaknesses, it will interesting to see how well they mesh early. No doubt they want this to be a heavy minute eating combo.

Basically, this is above average NHL talent vs AHL talent, and getting it at even odds is a steal.

a4u2fear · 09-21-11, 04:26 PM

On it too, lets get this!

pagodo · 09-22-11, 10:34 AM

Great pick and write-up, thanks

aznbluff · 09-22-11, 03:19 PM

Game of interest
Wings at Flyers

Valtteri Filppula-Henrik Zetterberg-Johan Franzen
Justin Abdelkader-Darren Helm-Todd Bertuzzi
Gustav Nyqvist-Joakim Andersson-Willie Coetzee
Tomas Jurco-Brent Raedeke-Francis Pare

Nicklas Lidstrom-Ian White
Jonathan Ericsson-Jakub Kindl
Brian Lashoff-Doug Janik

Ty Conklin
Jordan Pearce

vs

TBD

Just strictly looking at the Red Wing roster for this game, this is quite possibly the softest lineup the Red Wings could ice both at the forward position and on defense.

A "skill" 1st, 3rd and 4th lines are a recipe for disaster, especially when the 2nd line cannot eat up more than 15+ hard minutes like they will be playing in this game. Basically, there is not enough sheltered ice time to go around. The saving grace for them is Helm who is (in my opinion) the Wings 2nd most valuable forward at his role, behind only Datsyuk now. However, he has to carry a liability in Bertuzzi, who just doesnt fit on this line. Both Helm and Abby are going to be using their speed and bodies in a chip and chase forechecking game, which leaves Bertuzzi in no-mans-land. He is one of the slowest players in the league and needs a player like Zetterberg who plays more of a slow, controlled enter the zone and set up the cycle kind of game. Bertuzzi's best assets are probably his hands and size but he won't be able to utilize either on this line. Neither Abby nor Helm are snipers, nor do they have much puck skill, so it seems like just a bad mix of personnel.
The 3rd and 4th lines are going to be liabilities defensively every time they touch the ice. Gustav Nyqvist is the closest to NHL ready, but it's very difficult to anchor a line from the wing position. There just won't be enough center presence down low in the defensive zone, which is something the D look like they will need this game.
Finally, I'm probably one of the few who are down on Henrik Zetterberg. I love the guy, he's one of my favorite players but injuries have really hampered him. He has lost 2 steps over the last year and he can't shoot the puck anymore. His best shot is now his backhand, which is still decent, but only so many goals can be scored on your backhand. He used to be a threat on the rush and in transition, but now he is extremely easy to neutralize. A combination of being slow and not having a shot threat means defenders can just angle him to the outside and force him to pass it off. This is the reason that Hank's goalscoring has dropped the last 2 years. His back is really killing his shot and speed. I would dare say that Hank would be in tough to score 20 goals this year (and last year) if not for Pavel Datsyuk. Hank can't play power on power anymore, unlike what some people think after watching him match up with Crosby back to back in the SCF. He needs good winger support now, and good support from the D to be effective. Thankfully, it looks like he'll have that this game. Filpulla, in particular, is a player who has the tools to take his game to the next level. He really needs to step up this year and probably become the Wing's 2nd best forward, but I've been waiting for him to do that for 2 seasons now.

On D, sure it probably looks strong for a preseason game on paper, but I expect them to be exposed tonight by a big, depth Flyers team. In my opinion, Detroit is missing it's two best ES and PK defenders this game, which are exactly the types of players that you want to have against a team like Philly. Couple this with the fact that this will be the first game that Nick and newly acquired Ian White play together, it will take some time for them to get on the same page. I expect White to be deferring to Lidstrom frequently tonight, even in situations where there is a better play to be made.
And quite frankly, Nick has declined. Last season was the first season in a long time that I didn't think he was at least a top 5 defender in the league. Honestly, I feel Kronwall is ready to surpass him and take over the Wings #1. This is coming from Lidstrom's biggest fan since the lockout. He was my model-defender, the gold standard that I measured others up to. Ironic, he won another Norris last year, but strictly off reputation and PP effectiveness, which he should still excell at this season. He is still a valuable player as a top 4 Dman obviously.
Kindl is going to be no more than a bottom pairing Dman in the league, and very mediocre at ES. Ericsson has shown flashes of being worth his new contract but needs to bring it consistently (I believe that he will take a stride forward this year). Of the top 4 dressing tonight, no one is really able to contain a cycle down low, which is the kind of game that Philly thrives at. It's really just a bad matchup.

Conklin is one of the better backups in the league, though. He should be better than the Flyer's goalie tonight.

There are a lot of "name NHLers" playing for the Wings tonight, but it is a bad matchup against Philly. This play will hinge on the roster that Philly dresses for this game as, obviously, they could put out garbage and the Wings take handily. Key players that I'm looking for:
1. Coburn, big physical defender with a good first pass and can transition nicely. He matches up well with every one of Detroits lines.
2. JVR, again a big body winger with speed, something that the Detroit D really lack this game. He will basically be free to put perimeter pressure on the Wing's defenders and drive them back deep in their zone, allowing the Flyers to set up possesion.
3. Nylander, for opposite reasons. If Nylander dresses, it makes me like Detroit a little more in this game. He will play the same game as Detroit's 1,3,4 Lines, which allows Detroit to match and beat with superior players.
4. Carle/Meszaros/Giroux/Briere - Obviously, just above average NHL talents.
5. Goaltender (Bobrovsky is a +, Leighton sucks. Bryz won't play back to backs in the preseason)

Again, no play until I see the Flyers roster but I think -120 at home is good value here with a lot of roster combos

TomJSports · 09-22-11, 03:25 PM

Thanks for the write up. Just a reminder, the game is in London, which is more Wings country than Flyers country.

aznbluff · 09-22-11, 03:26 PM

Oh ok thanks

Looks like the Flyers are dressing a very strong lineup. Basically their NHL team without Jagr (work V I S A issues), Voracek, and Schenn up front. Pronger is out with injury still obviously on D

FWs include
JVR - Giroux - Wellwood
Hartnell - Briere - Rinaldo
Talbot - Couturier - Simmonds
Holmstrom - Zolnierczyk/Testwuide/Brown - Nodl

D
Carle - Meszaros
Coburn - Timonen
Lilja - Kessel
Bourdon - Lauridsen

G
Leighton (boo)
Bobrovsky

Ok playing Philly tonight -120

1-0-0 +1.00
1.20 to win 1.00

TomJSports · 09-22-11, 04:09 PM

Shocked when I saw that lineup. I was leaning toward the Wings, but that is a very solid lineup, and like you said virtually their NHL lineup, minus Jágr, Voráček, Schenn, and Pronger. I was also initially thinking the over, but this one may not see six if the Flyers actually play D.

TomJSports · 09-22-11, 04:11 PM

Bill Meltzer via hockeybuzz:

Flyers roster for tonight (they will have to scratch one goalie, one forward, and one defenseman but these are the available players who made the trip).

GOALTENDING
Michael Leighton - starter
Sergei Bobrovsky
Jason Bacashihua

FORWARDS
James van Riemsdyk, Harry Zolnierczyk, Zac Rinaldo, Eric Wellwood, Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Max Talbot, Ben Holmstrom, Wayne Simmonds, Danny Briere, Andreas Nodl, Scott Hartnell, Mike Testwuide, Tyler Brown

DEFENSE
Matt Carle, Marc-Andre Bourdon, Oliver Lauridsen, Blake Kessel, Andrej Meszaros, Kimmo Timonen, Andreas Lilja, Braydon Coburn .

aznbluff · 09-22-11, 04:28 PM

Yea, thing with the over though is that Detroit's 2nd line is not a scoring line. Its a shutdown/grind/forecheck/zone advancer line. They dont really have much offensive firepower, I think people will be shocked to see how average Detroit is offensively without Datsyuk (especially) and Cleary (not so much offensively but puck dominance-wise). If Detroit wins I think it'll be a low scoring win 3-1, 2-1, but I could see a 4-1 4-2 Philly win happening much more often here.
Wings have some nice natural talent/skill in their bottom 6, but they are too raw, not ready yet. Jurco and Nyqvist have great puck skills (I'll even go so far as to say that Nyqvist could be the next generation of Red Wings superstars, after Pav and Hank, if developed properly, and put into good situations) but they just are not ready yet in the other aspects of the game. Don't expect much offense from them despite their skill level. If it goes over the total, I think its because Philly has scored 4+.

TomJSports · 09-22-11, 04:48 PM

Yeah, like you said, that second line is their 3rd/4th line grind line guys. Sans Datsyu, you have less explosiveness and puck possession. (Same with Cleary, like you said. Still can't believe how he's turned his career around.) I haven't followed Nyqvist too much after he left Malmö. He was great U20s though, and his NCAA number looks great, too. After seeing lineups, I'm not playing the o/u, like you said, if it's over, the Flyers have scored 4+. And even though it is Michael Leighton, I don't know how that Det team piles on the goals.

TomJSports · 09-22-11, 07:04 PM

This damn Philadelphia team is ugly. Hope they pull it out for your chequebook and my sanity.

aznbluff · 09-29-11, 05:20 PM

Pinny just put up their Regular Season Wins Props, I jumped on some early.

Chicago Under 48.5 -105 1 unit
Only 2 teams had over 48.5 wins last season - Vancouver and Pittsburgh. Chicago had 44 (38 in regulation). I think last years Hawks team underachieved and were better than their record shows but I also feel that this years Hawks team is worse than last years.
The Central is the toughest division in the league now. I've already mentioned how high I am on St. Louis this year. Detroit is a perennial powerhouse. Nashville is always a tough out. Columbus is improving. Playing that division 6x per, I think Chicago is going to have an up and down year. They have lost high end defensive depth in Campbell, hoping that Leddy can progress to fill some of that role. They are starting the year experimenting Kane at 2C with unproven wingers at 1RW and 1LW. Early indications are that Saad could be 1RW to start the year. That's a lot of pressure to put on Toews for him to carry a raw rookie against some tough competition. Overall, they should be a little more balanced by midseason than last year but I think it'll cost them 2-3 wins early.

Phoenix Under 41.5 -105 2 units
Phoenix got significantly worse this offseason. For a team built on team defense and goaltending, they downgraded the most important position into the worst tandem in the league.
They also dropped defensive stay at home dman Jovo and are going to be inserting some youthful offensive dmen into the fold. Ekman-Larsson will probably see top 4 minutes this year which is a lot of pressure to put on your dcore as a whole when you dont have the goaltending to back it up. OEL is going to be a good 1-2 offensive punch with Yandle but both of them are average at best reading the defensive game right now.
They were built to win games 3-1, 2-1 but now they will have to win some high scoring matches. They don't have the offensive firepower to keep up in these situations. Their two best FWs Doan and Hanzal both excel defensively, but will be looked at to bring more and more offense now, something that does not play to their strengths.

Columbus Over 33.5 -105 2 units
I thought this was the best bet on the board. Last year Columbus reaches 34 wins but also had the most OTL in the league (13). With average luck thats another 2-3 wins on its own. Columbus finally added a number 1C at the cost of some future, but this bet is for this year only. This lets Brassard slide down into a more suitable soft 2C role, which should help the team immensely. I think Columbus improved slightly this offseason. They shouldn't be the worst team in the West for sure. I think they will be a 32-40 win team next year.

TomJSports · 09-29-11, 05:39 PM

All three plays on wins are very solid and should be 100% for you barring anything too out of the ordinary.

aznbluff · 10-06-11, 11:43 AM

First play of the year

Montreal Canadiens -102

Toronto is missing parts of all three of their top 3 lines today. MacArthur is suspended, so a rookie will be joining Grabo and Kulemin on their best line. Especially considering that this line will be getting the toughest minutes in the game, I expect for him to get exposed at points in the game. Luckily for the Leafs, Grabo and Kulemin are lights out and approaching elite level of play at both ends of the rink, however Grabo is nursing a foot injury, which could effect his cuts and skating.
Their newly acquired "#1C" is also out, having been put on the IR already, which leaves Bozak to work with Kessel and Lupul again. This line got eaten alive last year to the tune of around -20 goals and is clearly a liability, despite Kessel's explosive offensive abilities.
Their third line is missing Kadri who was working all preseason with Armstrong and Bozak. In fact, none of these lines have worked together much at all so far this year, and a tight checking system in Montreal should be able to capitalize on the chaos.
This plays right into Montreal's system, as they are not built with supreme skill, but rather with defensive patience and speed upfront. They look for mistakes and try to capitalize on them, while relying on Price to keep them in the game. With Toronto icing weakness down the middle and (a below average) rookie on their top line wing, I expect Toronto to really bleed chances against.

Montreal returns with its top 2 lines intact, including a healthy MaxPac. Their big FA signing starts anchoring line 3, which gives them very solid balance throughout the FW lines. The only questions here are on defense, however they have spread out their depth and I think the pairings compliment each other well. They have a solid stay-at-home paired with a puck-moving pincher on every pair. Im unfamiliar with Diaz, so it's a little bit of an uncertainty there. Look for the Leafs to try to expose him.

Toronto does hold the advantage on defense in my opinion. They also have their pairs balanced very well and I think they outclass Montreal on talent there. There's a reason this game is close to a pickem, but I have it pegged at Habs -120.

Goaltending isn't very close. Price has all the tools (probably the best technical goaltender in the NHL, +size) to become literally the #1 goalie the league, at least top 3. Reimer will stabilize out at about 911-916, a lower-middle of the pack starter.

Montreal Canadiens -102