ElCapitan's 2011-2012 NHL Thread

[ElCapitan]

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 San Jose Sharks (B) ML +122 (1.68 to win 2.05) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 25(A)-13(B)-5(C) (+0.55) SERIES: 22-3
V1 PL: 25(A)-10(B)-2(C) (-52.22) SERIES: 23-2

V2 ML: 31(A)-14(B)-6(C) (+16.35) SERIES: 27-2 (2 pending)
V2 PL: 31(A)-8(B)-4(C) (+9.68) SERIES: 29-1 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

No plays for Monday, 12/12.

[jcygts6]

Thanks

[ElCapitan]

12/13 Plays

V1 Calgary Flames(A) ML +130 (1 to win 1.3) (5Dimes)
V1 Calgary Flames(A) PL -240 (2.4 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V1 Los Angeles Kings(A) ML +165 (1 to win 1.65) (5Dimes)
V1 Los Angeles Kings(A) PL -210 (2.1 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 San Jose Sharks (C) ML -145 (5.41 to win 3.73) (5Dimes)

[jcygts6]

I believe sharks are a c bet

[djluvr]

Thanks for all the work elcapitan, here's hoping for a good day

[Snoopdonk]

So I went and backed tested the Version 1 ML of this system and I noticed that no team has ever had a system loss twice in one season, (since the lockout of 2004-2005 with the rule changes for ties, etc.) That means that if a team such as the NY Rangers has already had a system loss, then chances are that they won't have another system loss for the rest of the season. This is literally undefeated! Again this is only for the Version 1 ML system. On second thought I guess this would be true for the PL as well but in this case the ML is a much better bet. Below is a list of teams that already have a system loss this season and have remaining system plays left on their schedule.

NY Rangers
NY Islanders
New Jersey Devils
Washington Capitals

By the way, I would like to thank ElCapitan for all of his work. I would have never stumbled upon this trend if it wasn't for his posts.

[cubfan2121]

does anyone have a current W-L spreadsheet for both versions?
Id like to calculate results if we had started a labby line instead of using current 3 game chase system

[ElCapitan]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgGIgBnkVenPdE5ydTRHa3luTXJJME1RcnBQMUZGbEE

[cmdyrds]

So I went and backed tested the Version 1 ML of this system and I noticed that no team has ever had a system loss twice in one season, (since the lockout of 2004-2005 with the rule changes for ties, etc.) That means that if a team such as the NY Rangers has already had a system loss, then chances are that they won't have another system loss for the rest of the season. This is literally undefeated! Again this is only for the Version 1 ML system. On second thought I guess this would be true for the PL as well but in this case the ML is a much better bet. Below is a list of teams that already have a system loss this season and have remaining system plays left on their schedule.

NY Rangers
NY Islanders
New Jersey Devils
Washington Capitals

By the way, I would like to thank ElCapitan for all of his work. I would have never stumbled upon this trend if it wasn't for his posts.

great post including the praise to the cap.

[cmdyrds]

snoop,

just figured i'd throw it out there.

rangers wouldn't have been a v1 play as they lost three in a row to start the season, but they would have won on the PL
islanders would have won on the PL
devils would have lost on the PL
caps would have lost on the PL

[Snoopdonk]

Yes You are right. I forgot about the first three games of the season filter. I am only referring to the ML. If any team lost there first three games of a road trip with an OOC opponent in any of those games, the next time time that occurrence happens the team that previously lost will win at least one of those three games. No need for the PL. For instance the Islanders upcoming road trip this Saturday on 12/17/2011. To my unserstanding that is the Vesion ML system. If not my apologies for confusion.

[cubfan2121]

Thank you el capitan

For those who are using a labby line, can someone explain how to distribute a loss when there are multiple games on the same night?

going back to the start of the season when nashville went to game C and won.
My labby line would have looked like this 13-13-13-13-26-39-52
after the win it now looks like this 13-13-13-26-39 for a total of +$65
Am i supposed to divide and distribute?
Now what do i do?

This is the part that has confused me from the start

Any suggestions would help out

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...E1RcnBQMUZGbEE

[play4win]

i don't think labby works for 3 game chase bets like nhl! especially for v2 where you have enough series to win back for serie losses!!!!

[Spartacuss]

Ive been following the FREE NHL bets from covers.com for the last 13 days and so far im 9-3. I dont know how long it will last for. I followed there Free NFL and CFB about 2 years ago and i think i lost.

Just saying.........

As of today its now 20-12

[ElCapitan]

12/13 Results

V1 Calgary Flames(A) ML +130 (1 to win 1.3) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Calgary Flames(A) PL -240 (2.4 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V1 Los Angeles Kings(A) ML +165 (1 to win 1.65) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Los Angeles Kings(A) PL -210 (2.1 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 San Jose Sharks (C) ML -145 (5.41 to win 3.73) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 27(A)-13(B)-5(C) (-1.45) SERIES: 22-3 (2 pending)
V1 PL: 27(A)-10(B)-2(C) (-53.32) SERIES: 24-2 (1 pending)

V2 ML: 31(A)-14(B)-7(C) (+10.94) SERIES: 27-3 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 31(A)-8(B)-4(C) (+9.68) SERIES: 29-1 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

No plays for 12/14.

[thelimit0310]

System has just been total shit this year. Another losing night for V1.

I labby, and I'm doing a lot better than the chasers here. That is I'm nowhere near down -53 units. I'm only down about -3 units at the moment. I've been dividing my lines. So 13-13-13-26-39 for me would be 20.8-20.8-20.8-20.8-20.8. All it is is exchanging risk. Your taking a set risk for the entire line instead of risking higher at the beginning and risking back to normal when your back at your original numbers.

I also have my labby on 2 lines instead of 1.

[jcygts6]

Really tough night last night

[knugen]

yees, im sure this system will end in plus, but its too high juice on this PL bets..BOL

[Valand]

I no longer bet on the A bets yesterday I betted against king and calgary instead. I just follow B-C. I think the pl is much harder here then at baseball. When i did my bets I played favs on -1 1/2 and dogs on ml. Does that work on NBA? Never played that thx

[thelimit0310]

I no longer bet on the A bets yesterday I betted against king and calgary instead. I just follow B-C. I think the pl is much harder here then at baseball. When i did my bets I played favs on -1 1/2 and dogs on ml. Does that work on NBA? Never played that thx

I may consider doing the same. It will probably cut the amount of plays left in half if not more, but I would be willing to do that. This system requires a big roll and use small bets with that big roll, because you have to lay down almost 3 times your to win amount practically every bet. I just don't have that right now.

[ElCapitan]

12/15 Plays

V1 Calgary Flames (B) ML +105 (1.9 to win 2) (5Dimes)

V1 Los Angeles Kings (B) ML -120 (2.4 to win 2) (5Dimes)
V1 Los Angeles Kings (B) PL (fav, play ML) (3.72 to win 3.1) (5Dimes)

V1 New York Rangers (A) ML +118 (1 to win 1.18) (5Dimes)
V1 New York Rangers (A) PL -255 (2.55 to win 1) (5Dimes)


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) ML +115 (1.74 to win 2) (5Dimes)
V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) PL -265 (9.01 to win 3.4) (5Dimes)

[Win89]

Couldn't be more right about the PL. I ran a backtest over the past two seasons two see If there could be any tweaks to improve things and came to find out that if you played V1 ML plays on teams that had an overall record of .500 or above you would have ended 44-2 for 2010-2011 and 41-3 for 2009-2010. Keep in mind these losses if for example were at even odds would amount to about 7 units.

Currently 13-2 this season.

[thelimit0310]

Win89,

Your saying play the V1 ML exactly how it is with the exception of only playing teams that are .500 or greater when the start the trip? Sounds like a winning strategy, if it plays out well by this seasons end I would rather play that system any day over this current PL system. The risk is just too much to earn so little.

Is there a place to check the record in terms of a ratio? Does NHL.com do that?

[Win89]

I guess you could use NHL.com I just go to covers. And yea just the normal V1 plays only on the teams that are .500 or above. I'm tired of the juice as well, too much risk and work put in just to be wiped clean by a 3 game PL loss. That method is less riskier and more profitable. I gonna keep going back to earlier seasons to get a good sample and I'm playing that way starting tonight.... NYR qualified

[thelimit0310]

Christ, another A loss. A bets are just terrible this year. Another loss at -280, another losing night for V1.

Win89, Would love to see your sample when you finish. I think, because basketball is right around the corner, that I am going to follow your method or at least just the V1 ML. If you could post the sample as soon as possible I would appreciate it. Thanks!

[ElCapitan]

12/15 Results

V1 Calgary Flames (B) ML +105 (1.9 to win 2) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V1 Los Angeles Kings (B) ML -120 (2.4 to win 2) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V1 Los Angeles Kings (B) PL (fav, play ML) (3.72 to win 3.1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V1 New York Rangers (A) ML +118 (1 to win 1.18) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 New York Rangers (A) PL -255 (2.55 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*


V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) ML +115 (1.74 to win 2) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Edmonton Oilers (B) PL -265 (9.01 to win 3.4) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 28(A)-15(B)-5(C) (-2.35) SERIES: 23-3 (2 pending)
V1 PL: 28(A)-11(B)-2(C) (-52.77) SERIES: 25-2 (1 pending)

V2 ML: 31(A)-15(B)-7(C) (+9.20) SERIES: 27-3 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 31(A)-9(B)-4(C) (+0.67) SERIES: 29-1 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

12/16 Plays

V1 Anaheim Ducks (A) ML +178 (1 to win 1.78) (5Dimes)
V1 Anaheim Ducks (A) PL -165 (1.65 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V1 Calgary Flames (C) ML +145 (2.69 to win 3.9) (5Dimes)

[Kev the Brit]

The Ducks A Bet doesn't look promising.

[thelimit0310]

Nope. Probably looking at another A bet loss. The way those bets have been this season I wouldn't be surprised.

Can't wait to see Win89s sample results for his trend. It looks better and better by the minute.

[Win89]

It takes a lil time time go back through every team but I got another year of backtest for V1 .500 and above.

2008-2009: 32-3
Few less plays than the previous two seasons but In the plus either way you look it at.

[Valand]

How do I know that teams have .500? That sounds great! So NYR passed and the lost last time so the look good.

[Win89]

V1 ML .500 and above was horrible in 2007-2008 going 13-6.... Surely other versions weren't any better but there just wasn't many OOC road trips at all in addition to the majority of teams that season being downright awful.

[thelimit0310]

Thats fine Win89, see if that is a recurring theme, I doubt it is. All systems go sour every once in a while (this years JM NHL is the perfect example), as long as that doesn't consistently happen every season or two your still in good shape!