Home PL Trend

[fjordo]

In their first game of at least a 3 game homestand, the Home team has won 19 of 24 times. Of those 19 wins, 14 have come by 2 or more goals. With the odds that you get on the puckline, and this trend hitting at over 50%, I think its worth tracking.

Here is a list of completed games so far this year. I wasn't able to find all the odds of games thus far, so lets say +150 for those I couldn't find, which is undervalued. If you know the missing lines feel free to post them.

OCT 9: BUFFALO -1.5 @
OCT 9: WASHINGTON -1.5 @
OCT 10: CALGARY -1.5 @
OCT 11: PHILADELPHIA -1.5 @ +190
OCT 12: LOS ANGELES -1.5 @
OCT 13: ANAHEIM -1.5 @
OCT 14: NASHVILLE -1.5 @
OCT 14: MINNESOTA -1.5 @ +200
OCT 16: FLORIDA -1.5 @ +265
OCT 16: CHICAGO -1.5 @ +170
OCT 21: BOSTON -1.5 @ +250
OCT 21: DETROIT -1.5 @
OCT 22: VANCOUVER -1.5 @ +150
OCT 23: OTTAWA -1.5 @
OCT 23: CHICAGO -1.5 @ +150
OCT 23: DALLAS -1.5 @
OCT 24: NY RANGERS -1.5 @ +270
OCT 24: CALGARY -1.5 @ +250
OCT 25: MINNESOTA -1.5 @ +260
OCT 30: PHILADELPHIA -1.5 @ +160
OCT 30: LOS ANGELES -1.5 @ +200
OCT 30: COLORADO -1.5 @ +200
NOV 3: WASHINGTON -1.5 @ +135
NOV 3: ANAHEIM -1.5 @ +250

Assuming a risk off 100 on each game, you would be sitting at:

14-10: +1735

There is one game tonight, New Jersey, but no line yet.

[rickbo528]

Nice work fjordo. This looks like something worth pursuing. Will follow your thread.

[fjordo]

Nov 5: New jersey -1.5 @ +250

14-10: +1735

[EricZ116]

I think I would skip today, Brodeur is out and so is Parise.

[Bluenote]

Brodeur is the confirmed starter tonight..... Leftwinglock(dot)com

[Bluenote]

wow they just changed it to hedberg.....

[JW Cash]

Good job......This might be a good stat to set up a labby line with......

Would be interesting to see how many times the home team covers the
puckline at least 1 time during the 3 game homestand.....

[fjordo]

16 of 22 have covered the puckline in 1 of the first 3 games of a homestand, for series that are completed. The two series that opened Nov 3 are still pending.

[fjordo]

Nov 5: New jersey -1.5 @ +250

1st game PL wins: 14-11 (56%) +1635

PL within 3 games: 17-6 (74%) 2 pending

[fjordo]

Nov 6: Columbus -1.5 @ +185
Nov 6: Carolina -1.5 @ +210
Nov 6: San Jose -1.5 @ +190

1st game PL wins: 14-11 (56%) +1635

PL within 3 games: 17-6 (74%) 2 pending

[Jones10]

I like this tread will be intresting to see how this goes

[JW Cash]

Nov 6: Columbus -1.5 @ +185
Nov 6: Carolina -1.5 @ +210
Nov 6: San Jose -1.5 @ +190

1st game PL wins: 14-11 (56%) +1635

PL within 3 games: 17-6 (74%) 2 pending

THAT is more than enough to be hugely profitable with Labourchere....


The more I see this system.....the more I like it.....


Good Job....,

[fjordo]

Nov 6: Columbus -1.5 @ +185
Nov 6: Carolina -1.5 @ +210
Nov 6: San Jose -1.5 @ +190

1st game PL wins: 15-13 (54%) +1625

PL within 3 games: 18-6 (75%) 4 pending

[fjordo]

Nov 7: NY Rangers -1.5 @ +230

1st game PL wins: 15-13 (54%) +1625

PL within 3 games: 18-6 (75%) 4 pending

[fjordo]

Nov 7: NY Rangers -1.5 @ +230

1st game PL wins: 15-14 (52%) +1525

PL within 3 games: 18-7 (72%) 4 pending

[fjordo]

Nov 8:Detroit -1.5 @ +165

1st game PL wins: 15-14 (52%) +1525

PL within 3 games: 18-7 (72%) 4 pending

[eastvan09]

Very nice thread fjordo. I will keep tracking it.

[fjordo]

No plays here for a couple days. A few loses in a row, but still very profitable at 50%. Think about it, you could lose the next 14, and you would still be on the plus side. I think I'm going to jump on the 1st game PL games when they start again on the 11th.


Nov 8:Detroit -1.5 @ +165

1st game PL wins: 15-15 (50%) +1425

PL within 3 games: 18-7 (72%) 5 pending

THAT is more than enough to be hugely profitable with Labourchere....

I have heard of this before but am not sure exactly how it works. If you can explain it, and it makes sense to me with this home PL system, I may start it as well come the next round of series.

[scarface2738]

Nice work with a bigger sample size you could really be on to something.

[16johnnymac]

U must be retarded !! You don't know what PL is !! It means puck line ! Idiot get off the site if u don't know your crap!! Holy F%#k dam

[16johnnymac]

He really is

[fjordo]

Nice work with a bigger sample size you could really be on to something.

If anybody wants to do a little backtesting to last season or beyond, would be greatly appreciated, and would give us a better idea as to weather this may work long term or not.

1st game PL wins: 15-15 (50%) +1425

Something else I was looking at, if you did not play the 1st game PL when that 1st game at home was the 1st one back from a 3 or more game roadtrip, you could eliminate 4 losses. You would also eliminate 4 wins though, to a record of 11-11. I know that teams coming home off a long roadtrip can play sluggish their first game back, so maybe laying off these can help us out in the long run.

[fjordo]

U must be retarded !! You don't know what PL is !! It means puck line ! Idiot get off the site if u don't know your crap!! Holy F%#k dam

U must be retarded!!!! Hmmm, I don't know what PL is??? Why would I start this thread then moron! Idiot get out of my thread if u don't know whats going on here! Holy F%#k dam

[fjordo]

Got someone tracking last seasons results, so hopefully we will have a little insight as to how this has done in the past.

For anyone interested, here is a chart for this season, completed, and upcoming home series.

[beavers33]

2009-2010

Home Team Record -1.5 in 1st Game of 3+ Game Home Stand

61-104

Home Team Record -1.5 in 1st Game of 3+ Game Home Stand When Returning From 3+ Game Road Trip

24-35

Home Team Record -1.5 in 1st 3 Games of 3+ Game Home Stand

163-332

[fjordo]

2009-2010

Home Team Record -1.5 in 1st Game of 3+ Game Home Stand

61-104

Home Team Record -1.5 in 1st Game of 3+ Game Home Stand When Returning From 3+ Game Road Trip

24-35

Home Team Record -1.5 in 1st 3 Games of 3+ Game Home Stand

166-341

Thanks for looking into that.

You wouldn't happen to know, of the 165 homestands, how many times the team covered the PL at least once in the series, instead of just the overall record?

What does anyone think we should do in the case of an Underdog at home? ML? Skip the play? Reverse PL?

[beavers33]

Just to clear something up, I miscounted the 3rd number. The record should actually be 163-332.

As for the question you asked, the home team covered the PL at least once in the three game home stand 117/165 (70.9%).

[beavers33]

I think if the home team is a dog, we should skip.

[fjordo]

2009-2010

Home Team Record -1.5 in 1st Game of 3+ Game Home Stand

61-104

This number scares me a bit, maybe I'll wait until the end of the month, and see how things go until then.

Just to clear something up, I miscounted the 3rd number. The record should actually be 163-332.

As for the question you asked, the home team covered the PL at least once in the three game home stand 117/165 (70.9%).

That record makes more sense, and this is about what it's been hitting at this year so far. JW mentioned using this with a Laborouche system, but I'm not exactly sure how that works. If I have some time tomorrow I'll try to get 08-09 records to see if this still hit around 70%.

[beavers33]

yeah, i'm new here. i don't know any thing about anybody's systems. i've just used my own hockey knowledge to make picks over the years. if i could be pointed to the laborouche system, i'd really be interested in learning about it.

[JW Cash]

This number scares me a bit, maybe I'll wait until the end of the month, and see how things go until then.



That record makes more sense, and this is about what it's been hitting at this year so far. JW mentioned using this with a Laborouche system, but I'm not exactly sure how that works. If I have some time tomorrow I'll try to get 08-09 records to see if this still hit around 70%.

For more info on the " labby " just type labby in the search
engine here and click it....there are many threads on Labourchere...

Here is an example of one I use...

-------------------

I like the 2 line labby when you are using the conventional 3 game chase
sequence such as Sports Betting Professor, John Morrison, Football Bets
Direct or any of the Crusher plays...

Heres why..


On those 3 game chases...we know we do NOT get a lot of
C Bet losses....

So if our labby is set up as

10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10


..and we lose Bet A for $20.....we already know that Bet B and Bet C
are higher pct to win.....

so we take advantage of that in this case by putting more of what
we just loss on line 2 of the labby cause its a higher pct pick

10-10-10-15
10-10-10-25

Now if Bet B losses.....you can adjust your lines as you feel
most comfortable with but I would divide a Bet B loss equally
between Line 2 and Line 1 of the labby cause I know a C Bet
has a huge pct to win....I play C Bets with Line 1

you can do ...whichever one your risk tolerance allows...

10-10-10-15-18
10-10-10-18-25

or

10-10-10-33
10-10-10-43


Hope this helps...........

[eastvan09]

Thanks for the spreadsheet! I had a look at upcoming games.

Nov 10
Buf @ NJ - I will skip this as NJ is stuggling to score. Both teams have injuries in goal.
STL & Columbus - I will skip this as St Louis is red hot and has conceeded 6 goals in 7 games!

Nov 11 - Remembrance Day in Canada
Mon @ Bos - Huge rivalry game, I might pass. Although Mon has struggled scoring goals.
Edm @ Det - I will bet Det -1.5! Edm is an inconsistent young team, conceeding lots of goals.
Phil @ Car - I might pass on this.
Dal @ LA - I might bet LA in this. Though Dallas is playing well, LA is perfect at home.
Buf @ NYR - I will likely bet NYR. Buffalo is struggling.

When I make of these picks. I will try to post it here.

[fjordo]

Just an update on the record with Carolina covering last night.


1st game PL wins: 15-15 (50%) +1425

PL within 3 games: 19-7 (73%) 4 pending

[eastvan09]

Columbus is beating St Louis 4-0 and Buff/NJ tied 2-2.

[fjordo]

With Columbus covering easily tonight, I'll update the record. Boston is on the schedule tomorrow as a 1st gamer, and a few other games later on in series'.

One thing I did notice today, so far this season, if a team has failed to cover the PL in game 1 and 2, they are 0-7 on the the PL in game 3. Maybe a 2 game 'chase'/'labby' system is the way to go.

1st game PL wins: 15-15 (50%) +1425

PL within 3 games: 20-7 (74%) 3 pending