Scrivero's Hot Singles - Over/Under-system and more

[Scrivero]

Ok, I put another 0,5 units on the Sabres-Penguins game as its the only Under game for the night and because we will immediately stop the 4th system. Hence we will play for 1 unit per game at least on nights that have just 1 game or maybe 2 playable games. I remember the start of the system when we were betting 8 units per night with the faulty Over/Under system Im happy we survived it with such good results.

[Scrivero]

Aaaand I just did the thing that I decided to do whenever I start trying a new system:
- Back test a little bit.
- Start doing the system or back test it more.
- Start using the system, however small at first.

So I just made 66 bets, 0,01 units each. I was supposed to make 70 bets (7x10) but when one has to do 70 bets individually, one apparently misses a bet here and there. And in the sportbook that allows them one can not just choose them all and check "single for all 70 bets" like on Pinnacle, one has to make each and every bet individually. One can check the bets that one has done, but one has to open all of them individually to see the bet, they are not just listed clearly like on Pinnacle. So I have no idea which ones I missed.

So, it took me 30 minutes to make all those bets. Lets say I would get faster at it and it would take me only 25 minutes in the future. Lets calculate some approximate amount of time it would take to make the bets for the whole seasin:
- 1316 games (lets say ca 1400 to just estimate the final minutes/hours).
- 25 minutes per 7 games. 50 minutes for 14 games. 5000 minutes for 1400 games.
- Thats 83 hours of just putting in the bets.... But the ROI, as I calculated it for starters... feels just huge. I could even hire someone to place those bets for me with that ROI, hypothetically speaking of course. The ROI will most likely come down a lot when I calculate it more.

So yes, this will probably be a +-0 evening for this system or then a loss of 0,66 units ora win of 0,33 units. Doesnt really matter. This showed a bit about how this system could work, how long it would take to place the bets etc.

See you tomorrow!

[Scrivero]

Ok, our record for yesterdays shutout system was 2-64 for a loss of 0.06 units. One could say that the record was 2-5, as we hit 2 out of 7 games. Thats the most common hit too, score 3-0 for both, both teams favorites, makes the odds 30 (+2900) each.

Thats about all I will reveal of this systems details. Maybe.

4th system one hit, miss on the Under system. I thinkbwe went like -0.36 units for the whole night.

Byebye 4th system! Welcome Shutoit system!

More stuff later

[Scrivero]

Yesterday was -0,535 units.

Total for all systems: +44,331 units.

Under system bets for tonight, 0,5 units each:
1. Stars-Caps U4,5
2. Rangers-TB U4,5
3. SJ-Jets U4,5

I will continue counting the Shutout system tonight. Lets see what we will test with it next.

[Scrivero]

Ok, analysed tons of different factors and scenarios. Found, yet again, pretty amazing results. Will not reveal them, they are too good. What I will do though, is that I will post the plays that I do. I think/hope that no one will have a chance to figure out the system just based on the plays I will post. They will not be consistent with each other at all, when one looks at them, too many variables that affect them, and there will be even more variables as I analyse more of them.

There is already some plays for tonight. I think I might play them. They are against some of my other bets but thats expected.

I got my possible bets down from max 40 to 25. So I will play those 25. Im ready to invest 0,5 units to this test. So I am doubling my bet size from yesterday from 0,01 units to 0,02 units. So 0,02 units x 25 is 0,5 units. Lets do this!

Should take me (and you, if you are doing it too) 10 minutes to put these bets in.

By the way, the bets are, 0,02 units each:
1. Stars-Caps: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5
2. Rangers-TB: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5
3. Bruins-Senators: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 0-1, 0-2
4. Sharks-Jets: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5

I applaud anyone that figures this system out. Even I am having a tough time understanding my own system lol

Good luck to us!

[Scrivero]

Ok, I said that even I am having hard time understanding my own system. So some of the plays above were wrong, corrected ones here. I also added another factor already tonight so that also caused some changes:

The correct bets are, 0,02 units each:
1. Stars-Caps: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5
2. Rangers-TB: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5
3. Bruins-Senators: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3
4. Sharks-Jets: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5

So overall 27 bets, for 0,54 units. Hypothetical potential profit for tonight is +7,46 units. If we hit one shutout we are either -0,2 units or +-0 units or +0,2 units or +0,8 units or +1,46 units. If we hit none we get a loss of -0,54 units.

[Scrivero]

We had an overall loss of ca -0,2 units. One Under bet hit. The jets game had 2 goals in the last minute, too bad.

A 4th system bet wouldve hit but we dont want +-0 systems hence we should not worry about them.

Shutout system did not hit. Rangers game ended 0-0 reg I checked my analysis and that game fell ino two categories and neither had 0-0 playable. We have to strip even more of these lesser value shutout bets so we shouldnt worry about this either.

See you later!

[Scrivero]

Under bets for tonight, 0,5 units each:
1. Nashville-Anaheim U4,5
2. Islanders-Oilers U4,5

Shutout system bets coming later. Takes some time to calculate the picks.

[Scrivero]

Ok, back tested/analysed another season and got very similar results to the season I calculated yesterday.

Today would have 51 bets. The "Normal" maximum amount of bets for tonight would be 90. So we are down to ca 55 % of all possible bets. Would take ca 20 minutes to do the bets... Hmm, Im divided between doing the bets and actually just writing them down and seeing how it wouldve gone. I think will just do the bets. Yes, lets do them. Same bet sizing as yesterday, 0,02 units per bet.

So the bets are:
1. NJ-Columbus: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5
2. Rangers-Panthers: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4
3. Detroit-Toronto: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4
4. Blues-Wild: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4
5. Hurricanes-Avalanche: 0-1, 0-2
6. Islanders-Oilers: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4
7. Montreal-Vancouver: 0-1, 0-2
8. Nashville-Anaheim: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4
9. Flyers-Sabers: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-1, 0-2

We wont have time to do all this work each night. Lets spend some time on this in the beginning though.

[Scrivero]

The Islanders Under very close again, but those do not count. We should hit ca 1 out of 3,5 games so lets hit something tomorrow.

One Shutout bet hit, NJ-Col 0-2, odds of 30 (+2900). We made a loss of -0,42 units. The night was -1,42 for the systems. We made good money with ProfessorMJs picks like yesterday too, I highly recommend to check his thread.

Doesnt help our systems that we win money elsewhere, although it might help us in increasing our unit size for next season.

We will keep our bet size as 0,5 units indefinitely. We still like the Shutout system too but its just sooooo timetaking to make the bets. We will have to think whether we should decrease the best from ca 50/90 to around 10/90. To bet just the scores with the highest ROI. It will lead to us missing a lot of shutouts but we would just have to deal with it. Cant play all possible bets or games in any case.

Will today try to figure out a new system to test too.

Total for all systems: +42,711 units.

[Scrivero]

OK, I have simplified the Shutout system. I have cut it down to ca 75 games per season. I can easily bring it up by 10 or 20 or 50 or 100 games if I wish.

But lets calculate with 75 games first. We pick a side for 75 games based on a certain criteria. Our team wins ca 50 of those games. Of those 50 wins, according to our calculations, we should hit our shutout bet 7,5 times. Lets calculate if its profitable. Lets use an even odd of ca 50 (+4900). Lets assume its 1 unit bets per bet (it certainly wont be that in the beginning):

75 games, 5 bets per game = 375 units played
7,5 hits, odds of 50 per hit = 375 units won..

Hmm, did we just create another +-0 system? Im gonna calculate 3 seasons of this to see if my calculations were right or not. If this modification is +-0, then we need to find another that isnt. There is loads of value in there, just need to find where.

[Scrivero]

Ok, calculated the exact numbers of 3 seasons, recalculated the once I based my numbers on in the above post. I thought about revealing all numbers, and I always do when the numbers are bad or +-0. This time though they are neither, hence I am not revealing everything. I have discussed before the reasoning behind not revealing everything. I would reveal all numbers if this new edition was as impossible/difficult to guess as the original. But its not.

Games per season that fit the criteria: 47
Average % of my picked side winning those games: X %
Average % of all games ending with a shutout of 1-0 to 5-0: Y %
Average % of winning games ending with a shutout of 1-0 to 5-0: Z %

So with these numbers, lets recalculate what we calculated in the previous post:
47 games, 5 bets per game = 235 units played
X games hit, odds of ca 50 = Y units
Let's see what happens if the odds are as low as 45:
X2 games hit, odds of ca 45 = Z units

So we make a profit of +X to +Y units,thats ROI of +X % to +Y %, depending on what the odds are. I will have to calculate the exact odds after I have followed the odds some more, to be able to see what the average odds of a certain score in this category of games is.

But like I said before, the variance in this system is HUGE. We can easily go 10 games without winning. Thats -50 units. We could take out the 1-0 score and reduce the variance a bit, it might not even influence our ROI negatively, might be even a positive effect. I have to calculate it.

Sounds good, needs more tweaking but sounds good. Sorry for not revealing everything. I will just try to keep the system specifics a bit of a secret when needed. I will post all plays here though.

We will start the new edition of the shutout system with 0,2 unit bets, thats a 900% increase to my yesterday's bet size with the old very very timetaking edition of the system.

First game of the new edition is already today, Detroit-Boston. Our plays will be 0-1 to 0-5. We will have the 0-1 in today too as we just start the new edition and because our bet size is smaller than our goal of 1 unit. You can play these correct scores at least on Coolbet and on Bet365.

[Scrivero]

Under bet tonight, 0,5 units:
1. Ottawa-Dallas U4,75

[Scrivero]

Average odds for the Shutout system with 1-0 to 5-0: 49,1 (+4810). With 6-0 included: 56,4 (+5540).

Calculated the ROI for this version and its just way too good to not add the 6-0 too. 1-0 is ok to keep too.

Im afraid of the variance with this system but I will do it. Expect my total to fluctuate more than usual. Im pretty sure I will keep my bet size at 0,2 units in this system at least until we hit our first bet.

So the Shutout system bets for tonight:
Detroit-Boston, 0,2 units each score:
- 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6

Good luck to us! Could not think of another new system yet.

[Scrivero]

A fairly "good" start to the new system. Ended 1-6. 0-6 had odds of +9900. I should maybe think about an additional system that uses the fact that I am able pick the right winner X amount of time based on my category. Maybe PL. Under did not hit. Overall loss of 1.7 units. More stuff later!

[Scrivero]

Total for all systems: +41,011 units.

No Shutout system bets available tonight. Hence I will not yet calculate the "side" system for it either.

Under system bets tonight, 0,5 units each:
1. Flyers-Leafs U4,5
2. Minnesota-TB U4,5
3. Rangers-Hurricanes U4,5
4. Ottawa-Arizona

More Under bets than we would normally have. The odds for some are a bit lower than our normal criteria. I have explained this previously but not revealed the details of why some games can be chosen with lower odds.

Good luck to us!

[Scrivero]

Having a tough time with the unders right now. None hit.

We are most likely still over EV with the unders, maybe I will calculate it one day.

We will keep going.

Total for all systems: +39.011 units.

[Scrivero]

Tonight's bets:

Under system, 0,5 units each:
1. Pitts-Edmonton U4,75
2. Wild-Panthers U4,5

Shutout system, 0,2 bets each score for Buffalo-Columbus for scores:
- 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6

Near shutout system, 0,2 bets each score for Buffalo-Columbus for scores:
- 1-5, 1-6

That system above is an addition to the Shutout system. I have not calculated it yet, but it feels like it would be at least + in ROI as the odds are high. Easy to back test when I have the time.

Winning category PL system, 1 unit bet:
1. Columbus PL (-1,5)

This system has not been tested either, but my mind says that it should be + ROI as well, based on how many of the bets in my category picks for the shutout system end in a win for the chosen team. Fairly easy to back test when I have the time.

Good luck!

[Scrivero]

It aint easy having this tough strech right now. Gotta just keep on trying.

One under lost, one under was half Push. Our side of the category pick won again but not with PL. Our shutout and near shutout bets did not hit either. Loss of -3,15 units.

All systems total: +35,861 units.

We have to be patient especially with the shutout bets. Theyre not gonna hit very often, they dont have to with the average odds of ca +5000. We could go the rest of the season without winning any of our bets though, it happens. We hope to keep/start hitting our bets but one never knows.

There might be a shutout system bet tonight (+ near shutout + PL). There will be one or two Under bets. There can be an early goal bet as well. Posting the bets later.

[Scrivero]

Ok, did some back testing and analysis for some of the stuff I talked about above:

Back testing ML bets for my category picks: ROI of +3%, ca 4 units per season.
Back testing PL bets for my category picks: ROU of +5% ca 6 units per season.

Even though profit is always good, we will not do those systems. First of all because we are aiming for higher ROI systems and higher +units per season per system. Probably most importantly we will not do them beause they just increase our variance tremendously. We also have much higher ROI systems to use. We might use these systems in the future.

Analysing/back testing correct scores: We will add these scores to our near shutout system: 5-2 and 6-2.

Hence shutout system/near shutout system bets are: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 6-0, 5-1, 5-2, 6-1, 6-2.

With additions of 5-1, 6-1, 5-2 and 6-2 we almost double our bets hit for a full season. The average odds come down a bit but are still ca +5000. Our ROI comes down 3 % but we will allow it as our is ROI rather huge anyways. Also, I like to win more often, it just feels good.

This system is sick, so sick. We really want to play it 1 unit per bet but we have no way to do it right now. It would mean playing for 10 units per game. Losing 5 straight would be -50 units, way way way too much variance right now. With 0,2 unit bets we could lose 10 units in a row. I think we want to take the bet size to 0,1 units right now, especially if we play some border line games in the beginning, such as Boston-Philadelphia today. We will see. We dont want to go broke now that we have seemingly found a very awesome system.

[Scrivero]

We played the Philadelphia-Boston with our Shutout and Near shutout systems. I guess we could and should put these two systems together and call it like Shutout+ system.

Shutout+ (beta name) system bets, 0,1 units per bet:
- Philadelphia-Boston 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 1-5, 1-6, 2-5, 2-6.

Under system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Toronto-Carolina U4,5
2. Calgary-Winnipeg U4,5

Early goal system bet, 0,5 units:
- Philadelphia or Boston to win ML if the team gives up an early goal.

To me its starting to seem like some teams are starting to play some weird I-dont-care-at-all hockey. Meaning that they have lost their chances to playoffs, they hate their coach, the defence especially seems to suck back etc. Im looking at Winnnipeg for tonight for example. This leads to pretty wild scores.

I will have to see whether we will pull the plug for the Under system for this season (and continue next season) and concentrate on creating new systems and to the Shutout+ system.

[Scrivero]

Philly-Boston ended 1-2. We have now a record of 3-0 with ML (and REG bets) and 1-2 with PL bets. 0-3 with Shutdown+ bets. We have of course not bet the ML or REG or PL (just once) as our calculations showed just small profit. We have not calculated the Reg bets for this category yet, we will do it!

Under bets: Winnipeg-game hit,Toronto-game did not. Good.

There was no Early goal bet as there was no goal during the first 10 minutes.

Overall tonight was just about exactly +-0 units. I will no more have the exact decimal results as it just takes unnecessary time. Have loads of stuff going on in my "normal" life, hence I dont want to waste time on unnecessary details. Most important is to test the systems and figure out new ones.

ALSO, I have said before that I am no capper... Well, thats what I thought but lately I have been able to pretty well pick the right winners and/or overs in my mind. I think I will start capping games too. I dont know if I can justify it as a system in any way. I might still follow the results here.

Back later tonight! By the way, Minnesota-Chicago will be an early goal game tonight. Not enough odds available to determine the other bets yet.

[Scrivero]

Damn, missed the start of the Minnesota-Chicago so I missed the early goal bet too. Oh well.

Shutout+ bets tonight, 0,1 units per bet:
- Dallas-SJ: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 1-5, 1-6, 2-5, 2-6.

Category pick Reg bet, 0,5 units (not back tested yet):
- SJ Reg (1x2-bet, tie is a loss).

No Under bets for tonight available, yet. Might come one later. Also I might cap one game tonight.

Total for all systems: +35,8 units.

[Scrivero]

Nice, we hit our very first Shutout+ system bet! Ended 1-5 with odds +3400. We also hit our Reg category pick. We also capped our first game and hit it with Montreal. We did not hit our Under bet.

Total ca +3 units.

All systems total +38.8 units.

[Scrivero]

No Shutout+ system bets tonight.

No Category reg system bets tonight.

No Early goal system bets tonight.

Could be a Capping system bet, if there is one, will post it later.

Under system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. TB-Rangers, U4,5
2. Hurricanes-Islanders, U4,5
3. Jets-Predators, U4,75
4. Pitts-Calgary, U4,75

Good luck! Cap system pick coming later, if there will be one.

[Scrivero]

Capping system pick, 0,5 units:
1. Colorado-Arizona O5,5

[Stackzilla]

In this thread I will post all my picks for my Over/Under-system which is +21,25 units for singles and parlays and +15,76 units for singles only. This system started on the 10th of January 2017, we bet 1 unit per game. We play also parlays with 0,2-0,5 units per parlay.

I will post all picks at latest 3pm EST. I will post all of them at the same time. I post every round of NHL. I will also at the same time tell which games I will play in my Early goal -system, which started on the 7th of January 2017 and is +9,75 units after betting on 6 matches for 0,5-1 unit per game.

This can't be real right..."I have ran these systems in another place until today. Will not mention where as to not break the forum rules."....So you gifted yourself almost 50u but it's ok because this guy vouched for you..

at396
Become A Pro!Join Date: 01-19-17
Posts: 3
Betpoints: 60
I saw on the other forum you would be moving to "another similar forum" (or whatever your words were). Glad to see you ended up here. Been following the system for a week. I like it so far and can't wait for the new system too.

[Scrivero]

This can't be real right..."I have ran these systems in another place until today. Will not mention where as to not break the forum rules."....So you gifted yourself almost 50u but it's ok because this guy vouched for you..

Just search with my name, Scrivero, and keywords of "NHL betting system HOTS" and you will find all my bets with my system leading to that point, still not gonna break the forum rules by posting a link to it And to correct you: the systems were only +30 units at that point (the +15 units of singles are included in the singles and doubles of +20 units). We did go up to +47 units a week ago, now up only + 36,3 units.

Thw answer was to the bit hidden comment of "So you gifted yourself almost 50u but it's ok because this guy vouched for you.." from Stackzilla.

We lost all our system bets yesterday for a total of -2,5 units.

With that said, our Under system is over for this season, we might return to it for the playoffs, need to back test them separately. Teams are way too loosy loosy right now for the Under system, will tighten up in the playoffs. The odds might not be enough there but we will see.

We will continue the other systems still.

Total for all systems since starting them on January 7th 2017: +36,3 units.

[Stackzilla]

Apologizes and BOL.

[Scrivero]

Apologizes and BOL.

No worries. And thanks, we need it!

[Scrivero]

Ok, so we put the Under system on pause at least until the playoffs. Will back test few years of playoffs and then see the odds when the playoffs start to see if the Unders are playable.

We will also end the Capping system before we even got it really started. Record was 1-1. Im like, come one, I still cant cap games, its like a coin toss and those never end up well. I will try capping again next season, maybe.

We have a new system folks! I call it the BigOver system. Basically it uses the fact that we are now seeing with the end of the season, games are having loads and loads of goals as teams are either playing very badly or just seemingly taking risks to get wins, or sparing some players for the playoffs or whatever it may be. The scores seem to be filled with games that have 7 or 8 or 9 or even 12 goals (those are all from yesterday).

The way the system works (at least now that we start it) is that we take the matches which are the most likely to go over 5,5. Then we choose an even higher line for the matches, such as 6,5 or 7,5 and choose the game to go Over.

BigOver bets for tonight, 0,5 units each:
1. Islanders-Carolina, O7,5 goals
2. Toronto-Florida, O7,5 goals
3. Dallas-Edmonton, O7,5 goals

I know I know, Im probably just throwing money away but I want to see how it works and how it feels. The odds are huuuuge. Well, only like +330 but still. Similar to our U4,5 bets. Have not backtested this, which I should do.

Reg category bets for tonight, 0,5 units each:
1. San Jose Reg -0,5
2. LA Kings Reg -0,5

Shutout+ system bets for tonight, 0,1 units per score:
1. Arizona-LA: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 1-5, 1-6, 2-5, 2-6.
2. Buffalo-SJ: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 1-5, 1-6, 2-5, 2-6.

Good luck!

[Scrivero]

Alright, we already hit 2 BigOver bets! The Dallas game ended 1-7 and the Toronto game 2-7. That gives +units for the night.

The Shutout+ games are still on and of course also the Reg bets. The Kings game after 38 minutes is 0-1. Lets hope it stays there. 0-2 or 0-3 would give less cash. Any win is good though, as the odds are minimum ca +1900. These bets hit rarely too but lets hope for the best!

[Scrivero]

Ok we hit one reg bet but missed the Shutout+ bets. Total ca +1 unit. Will calculate exact totals tonight.

[Scrivero]

Total for last night was +0.6 units.

Total for all systems is +36.9 units.

Tonight:
No Under bets.
No Shutout+ bets.
No Reg bets.
No Early goal bets.

Probably will be one or two BigOver bets, will post them later.

[Scrivero]

Alright, we like action and as there are no other bets available tonight, we will bet the BigOver bets with 1 unit per game. We have not backtested it at all so thats why I should bet less, but nahhhhh, lets just see how this goes. I will add the odds too so that we see what they normally are.

BigOver system bets:
1. Pitts-Philly: O6,5 (0,4 units, +170), O7,5 (0,4 units, +285), O8,5 (0,2 units, +530)
2. Boston-Calgary: O6,5 (0,4 units, +200), O7,5 (0,4 units, +425), O8,5 (0,2 units, +800)

Potential loss: -2 units (if none hit)
Potential profit: +6,98 units (if all hit for both games)
Potential profit: +3,92 units (if all but the O8,5 hit for both games)
Potential profit: +0,28 units (if O6,5 hit for both games)

And hitting only the other game or parts of the other game gives different profit/loss, not gonna post all options, you get the idea. Lets see how this goes

By the way, all these are Reg bets. Meaning that if the match is 3-3 after Reg time, then we lose the O6,5 bet. If its 4-4 after Reg time, then we lose the O8,5 bet.

Good luck!

Edit: Lets still calculate what we'd get when betting just O6,5 or just O7,5 or just O8,5:

Betting 1 unit each game just O6,5: +3,7 units
Betting 1 unit each game just O7,5: +7,1 units
Betting 1 unit each game just O8,5: +13,3 units

Ok, hmm, I think I prefer just betting the O6,5 in the future. Doesnt make much sense to bet the way I did (the 0,4-0,4-0,2 model). All games have to hit hard for it to be beneficial compared to just betting O6,5.

I got a feeling that these games will go big with the goals. Just a feelinn in addition to some facts. Im bad with facts (besides some stats) but Im gonna go hard on this. Adding more bets:

BigOver system additional bets, 1 unit each:
1. Pitts-Philly: O6,5, +170
2. Boston-Calgary: O6,5, +200

Good luck again