Scrivero's Hot Singles - Over/Under-system and more

[MikeyPicks1]

Wow, sounds like you're putting some real time and effort into bringing us these picks.
Good looking out.

[Scrivero]

Backtesting system number 5:
- AWESOME! Ca 150 playable games per season, win about 100 of them. Cant see the odds as my normal data could not be used to backtest this. Lets say with average -125 odds this system gives us +30 units per year.

Backtesting system number 6:
- Not good, not at all, +-0 basically. Might backtest it more, but probably am done with it even before it started.

[Scrivero]

Wow, sounds like you're putting some real time and effort into bringing us these picks.
Good looking out.

Yea it takes some time for sure. Im mostly doing it for myself, but then again, I dont think I would be doing this so carefully and putting so much time into to this if it werent for you all who read this stuff and can see my mistakes and results. Therefore I think its good to share

Honestly, I wish I could pick my picks like you do, analyzing a specific game but Im just terrible at that

Edit: Lets put our goal in here out loud:

1. Find 10 systems with +30 units each per year. Altogether +300 units per year.
2. Graduallye (within 5(?) years raise my unit size to 100 dollars.
3. Make 30k a year betting NHL (100 bucks x +300 units).
4. If one makes 30k per year betting... the unit size can be much bigger then 100 dollars.. which means one could potentually win much more.

Yes, that is a big goal, a HUGE goal. But there aint no results without goals. There are no huge results without huge goals.

Where we are at the moments, our systems so far:
1. Under-system: +60 units per year (only backtested, not proven)
2. The Early goal system: +30 units per year (not really possible to backtest, just an estimate when looking at how its gone so far)
3. The 4th system: +30 units per year (backtested only through one year, dont trust it at all yet)
4. The 5th system: +30 units with estimated -125 odds per game. (more backtesting needed, need odds-comparing too. With average odds of +100 this would be +50 units per year).

So I would say we are half way there, with 4 systems with altogether +150 units per year. The problem is that we might not be able to use these systems the whole year every year, they might stop working, we might not be able to play everything we want all the time, regulatory changes can affect a lot etc. Also, we have done these systems just ca 7 weeks, so we cant really say that any of this is proven BUT, I think our direction is the right one.

But, one thing is for sure. We need more systems. Its like demo songs for an album. There needs to be like 50 to make a good 10 track album. It works the same way with innovations and business ideas. Need to go through a lot of garbage (that sound good at first) to find the good ones. Some would say the same about finding their partner too.

Need time. Need more ways to backtest this stuff. Need to be fearless. Need to get through the inevitable slump. We can do this

[HockeyRocks]

S,

I'm sure you have talked this before, however as i only use 5Dimes and see no U 4.75 lines, could i ask what book you use?

Thanks in advance..

[MikeyPicks1]

This just got frightening. You're saying that the goal would be to maybe in 5 years build up to $100 per unit. This would suggest that you're playing less than that now, even despite all the back testing you're doing. If you're only playing half your goal, which would be 50, and some plays you play only half a unit, then you're currently playing $25 plays on your system. Not to say that bankroll and intelligence go hand in hand, but you seem to be fairly seasoned in this game, so to set a goal of $100 a unit seems very strange. It's no easy task finding what it is you're looking for in terms of winning formulas, so I give you all the credit you deserve for that. All said, though, something just doesn't seem right with your pitch. It's as though it's setting up to set something up. Either way, more power to you. Thanks for sharing and best of luck to you.

[Scrivero]

S,

I'm sure you have talked this before, however as i only use 5Dimes and see no U 4.75 lines, could i ask what book you use?

Thanks in advance..

Thanks for asking! I use Pinnacle for most bets, and they are the ones that offer also U4,75, U5,25 etc. I use Coolbet for my Regulation time bets.

[Scrivero]

This just got frightening. You're saying that the goal would be to maybe in 5 years build up to $100 per unit. This would suggest that you're playing less than that now, even despite all the back testing you're doing. If you're only playing half your goal, which would be 50, and some plays you play only half a unit, then you're currently playing $25 plays on your system. Not to say that bankroll and intelligence go hand in hand, but you seem to be fairly seasoned in this game, so to set a goal of $100 a unit seems very strange. It's no easy task finding what it is you're looking for in terms of winning formulas, so I give you all the credit you deserve for that. All said, though, something just doesn't seem right with your pitch. It's as though it's setting up to set something up. Either way, more power to you. Thanks for sharing and best of luck to you.

Thanks for the thoughts! Well, I had to read through your text a few times to understand whether you actually think that 100 dollars per unit is too little or too much. But I do think that you think that the unit size right now should be at least that.

I do see what you mean with your comments but I must clarify a few things about "why" we dont play 100 dollars per unit right not, why are we aiming where we are aiming and with the time frame we wrote.

Before that: Yes, we are setting up to set something up. Hence the smaller unit size. We are nowhere near "done" with developing our systems. And the unit size will most likely "never" go above 100 bucks. We will much rather just have more systems to spread our risk. nstead of betting like 1k on 3 bets, we'd rather bet 1k on 20 bets. Kind of like an investment portfolio, doesnt make sense to "bet" on only one share, its better to bet on 100. Read more about my thoughts below:

First of all, I am a "former" business man and entrepreneur. I have a steady day job now because I did not feel like that is for me right now, or ever. I am, well, rather decent in all things related to business, with statistics and using data being a sort of a love/hate relationship of mine. I treat my betting as a business. I use Lean Innovation models to my betting systems. Hence I do not start with backtesting everything, and making sure that everything works and then go to the market big and either win or lose. Instead I start small, I start testing things, if they work, I back test them, I modify them, I search for more things, preferably get feedback from you guys, modify more, change more thngs, search for more factors etc etc etc.

My current systems are like entry products. I dont think I will have most of them anymore after 5 years. New and improved systems will come and replace them.

By the way, there are people here who know business and lean innovation/management much better than I do. To those people I say: Give me tips! and: Dont worry if this is not exactly lean, this is something that I try to bring to sports betting and I see it fitting with most parts.

What my hockey betting "business" does NOT have is: Warehousing, inventory, procurement, sales, marketing... And I can say that I dont miss them Basically we are using our brain functions and time to create these systems. We then test them and see if they work. Whata good with not having any inventory or needing one, is that we have an endless amount of "products", but we can change the product line instantly, we can end a product line without needing to get rid of the inventory etc. This would be perfect for any company but its not possible with physical products. Even with services its not that easy.

Why we dont have 100 bucks per unit right now? That is because of the stuff we wrote above. We dont know if this stuff works. We have some idea about its possibilities but we really dont know. We have used the systems for only 7 weeks. I have been betting on sports since I was like 7 or 8, BUT, this is totally different. I used to cap games, now I dont. So creating these systems is now 9 weeks of experience for me (I started with a puck line system in December, you can find it with some google search). When we get more experience and whenever we can trust that the systems work we can make the unit size like 1k if we want (we never will, I explained this in the second paragraph), its not like we have to do it right now, there is no visible time frame to use our products, we dont see them going somehow old. We dont need to fear competition. We dont have any competition. We might need to adjust the systems according to market changes but we can utilize them in the future as well, if they work. So we grow our unit size slowly. I have said before that people dont need to know how much I win or lose in money, but yes, our unit size is not 100 bucks right now. We have the BR to do that, but that would be taking unneeded risks. We dont need to take risks right now. We can do it when/if we have made like 10k with these systems first. We are running so much over EV that its not even funny. Our ROI right now is probably at +25 %, which is nuts. So that will come down to ca +12,5 % if our calculations have been correct.

To make it short: I treat my betting like a business. My products/services are my systems and there is no need for customers. If the products/services are good, then we make money. We can end a system any time. All human resources we need are in our brain. We dont need to buy anything to make this "business" work. We only need time and endurance. Thanks for reading!

[Scrivero]

There could be a lot of plays tonight. Will post them as the lines for Unders become available.

There wont be any Early goal system bets.

There wont be any 4th system bets.

There COULD be 5th system bets! YES!

We lost yesterday's game, -1 unit. Will post the statistics again tomorrow. See you later tonight!

Edit. Lets check the 5th system bets for tonight right now:
1. Rangers ML -134
2. Islanders ML +130
3. Philadelphia not available
4. Colorado +121

WOW! Didnt think we'd get so many on the first day! We start with 0,5 units per game. We already bet the games with the odds above. We will follow a bit on how the lines evolve to be able to get the best odds in the future rounds.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Thanks for the thoughts! Well, I had to read through your text a few times to understand whether you actually think that 100 dollars per unit is too little or too much. But I do think that you think that the unit size right now should be at least that.

I'm pretty sure he was questioning your trustworthiness. He's implying that once you recommend increasing unit size, your systems will start to shit the bed.

[Scrivero]

I'm pretty sure he was questioning your trustworthiness. He's implying that once you recommend increasing unit size, your systems will start to shit the bed.

Haha maybe I have a hard time interpreting (written) things at time and even more of a hard time giving a short answer to anything. Some say that one should not trust anyone on the Internet. I sometimes agree. Sometimes trusting makes money tough. I kinda tried the trusting thing wit the Tail system but that bombed (even if it was +units). But yes, with this said, I will hence never ever tell anyone to increase their unit size. I might tell when Ive increased mine though, I hope that doesnt count as jinxing it.

[Scrivero]

Letting you guys know in advance that the plays for tonight's Under system will be the Columbus-game, the Toronto-game and the Pittsbugh-game. They just dont have high enough odds for me to play them yet and the Pittsburgh line is not available. Play them if you get ca +300 for each. I will try to get them too.

[Scrivero]

TONIGHT'S PLAYS:
5th system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Rangers ML -134 (is now -126)
2. Islanders ML +130 (is now +132)
3. Philadelphia +164 (is now +162)
4. Colorado +121 (is now +113)

Under-system bets:
1. Islanders-Columbus U4,5, +278, 1 unit
2. Philly-Pittsburgh U4,5, +270, 0,5 units
3. Philly-Pittsburgh U4,5Reg, +190, 0,5 units

The Toronto-game never became playable, I dont think it will... It has 8% ROI on Coolbet and 4% on Pinnacle... I might still play it for 0,5 units, we will see. I will check it again in a few hours.

Good luck to us!

[Scrivero]

The Washington-game is slowly becoming playable as U4,5. Still some way to go though.

We will have an Early goal system possibility tonight: The play will be Anaheim/LA, if there is a goal in 10 minutes.

I just made a realization: There are 1230 games in an NHL-season. If we play 1 unit per game and we want to make 300 units per year, and we have ROI goal of 12,5 %...Well, we need to make 2400 bets during the season, if we are talking only about the Regular season. Most likely we can play the Playoffs in in the same but lets just imagine that we would only have the regular season.

That would mean that we'd have to play every game of the season, and basically have almost two bets per game (e.g. ML + U4,5). Lets see how we'd do tonight (lets imagine that all bets are 1 unit bets):
1. Under-system: 2-4 bets.
2. 5th system: 4 bets
3. Early goal system: 0-1 bets.

So we have ca 7 bets tonight. There are 8 games tonight. If we played 7bets per 8 games all season, we'd end up placing 1076 bets during the season. With a 12,5 % ROI that would give us a profit of +134,5 units. Even if we are now at ca +25% ROI, I dont think that its sustainable so we have that +134,5 units as base for our calculations.

So we'd have +134,5 units when using the 4 systems that are currently active. We have 40 % of our systems "ready". Lets say that we get the same amount of games with the remaining 6 systems. We would end up at +336 units for the whole year.

Haha Im not saying that the calculations above have any truth in them besides that they are mathematically correct. Its just a calculcation based on the amount of bets we are placing tonight when compared to the available games and calculated for the whole year and added the still hopefully coming 6 new systems which hopefully are as good as the current ones of which probably all are still very unproven in many ways. Still, fun to see a calculation like that.

One thing is that can we really expect to be able to play ca 17 bets on a 8 game evening? That would mean four 4th system bets (ML), two Under system bets, one early goal system bet (on average) and then what? We cant expect to do a ML bet for all games... or an Under bet or an Over bet... I believe that we must use the Playoffs in a huge way. Or then start using the regular season games so that if our 4th system tells a team X ML, then we also do that match TT Over for that same team etc. Not sure if we want to though. Anyways, enough rambling, lets try to win at least 1-2 of our bets tonight. Im excited to see how the 5th systems bets start.

[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
5th system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Rangers ML -134 (is now -126) WIN!!
2. Islanders ML +130 (is now +132) LOSS
3. Philadelphia +164 (is now +162) LOSS
4. Colorado +121 (is now +113) WIN!!
Total: 2-2, -0,22 units

Under-system bets:
1. Islanders-Columbus U4,5, +278, 1 unit LOSS
2. Philly-Pittsburgh U4,5, +270, 0,5 units LOSS
3. Philly-Pittsburgh U4,5Reg, +190, 0,5 units LOSS
4. Montreal-Toronto U4,5Reg +160, 0,5 units WIN!! (was 2-2 after Regulation)
Total: -1,2 units

Total for the night: -1,44 units


Totals so far (including the previous night's Arizona-loss):
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+23,45 units (singles), +26,74 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 7-8, +11,05 units

3. The tail -system (stopped, might not start again, started 1st of February 2017):
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased but you can guess them, active, no more plays before backtesting, started 16th of February 2017):
Record: 4-4 (4-6 with the -1,5 trials), +3,285 units

5. The 5th system (active, started 25th of February 2017, needs more backtesting):
Record: 2-2, -0,22 units

6. The 6th system (not started yet, backtesting showed +-0 results, might never start, might backtest more):

All systems total (started 7th of January 2017): +43,371 units

There will be 1-2 Under system bets tonight. Will be no 4th system bets, might be some 5th system bets. Will be 1-2 possible Early goal system bets. Will post the plays later. Will post the Under system bets only when I've played them myself.

[Scrivero]

Only one 5th system bet tonight, 0,5 units:
1. Chicago ML -164
- Well, we calculated that there would be 150 games for this system per year, so one game is what we are gonna get most evenings.

Early goal system bets will be, 0,5 units each (if a team lets in a goal in first 10 minutes):
1. Boston or Dallas
2. Calgary or Carolina
- We will raise the bets to 1 unit each in the near future if the systems continues to do well.

So no 4th system bets, again. Then again, we calculated that we would get ca 40 of those per year, so yea, every 5th night should give us one. Will post the Under system bets when Ive played them myself.

Overall we will get 4-5 bets tonight on a 7 game round... I guess its ok, we should get 6/7 on average.

We need to come up with more systems. Any suggestions? Preferably such ideas that will give as many bets as possible and with as high odds as possible. I will backtest any idea you throw at me. I will even name the system after you.

We will probably have a 7th system that will be based on the 5th system. The 7th system would bet the 5th system pick to go over 2,5 goals. Maybe an 8th system too to bet the winner of first period to be the 5th system pick. Those are very incremental innovation systems though, nothing very exciting. We might still do them, even starting tonight.

[Scrivero]

Under system bet, 1 unit:
1. Bruins-Stars U4,5, +354
- Whats the deal with this game anyways? Didnt expect the odds to be this high already, they might get even higher.

The 7th system and 8th system bets I talked about in the last post: Well, we did also 9th system and 10th system and 11th system but we combined these all into a big 7th system. Basically we are just testing how it works to broaden our portfolio even with just one game, instead of betting e.g. 2,5 units just Chicago Reg we will make 5 different bets and spread/reduce the risk while still trying to win the max amount of cash. We could add many more of these too.

7th system bets (based on the 5th system ML pick) for tonight, 0,5 units each:
1. Chicago O2,5 goals
2. Chicago -1,5
3. Chicago Reg
4. Chicago 1st period ML
5. Chicago 1st period -0,5

Not posting the odds, just dont have the time.

Thats all for tonight! The Early goal bets will come if they come, I wrote them already in the previous post.

Good luck to us!

[Scrivero]

Ok, exact stats later but I think we made some units of profit.

We hit our 5th system bet and ALL of our five 7th system bets

We also hit 1/2 of our Early goal system bets. We hit none of our three Under system bets. We got altogether three (I posted only one) because suddenly there were two more available just as I was about to fall asleep.

Exact stats later!

[Scrivero]

Quick calculation shows a profit of +2.8 units for yesterday. +4.8 units for you if you did not play those two unders that I was too tired to post More later and today's plays too, if there are any.

[Scrivero]

Not probably going to post all games and their results (WIN/LOSS) from now on. Not even all odds for each play. Not even all plays, I will just tell you what to play and you can see whats available on your sportsbook. Its just so much work type and add everything. I will see how I will do in the future. If its easier to just post the results, I will.

Yesterday's results:
Under-system: 0-3, -3 units
Early goal system: 1-1, +2,5 units
5th system: 1-0, +0,305 units
7th system: 5-0, +2,948

Total for the night: 7-4, +2,753 units

Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+20,45 units (singles), +23,74 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 8-9, +13,55 units

3. The tail -system (stopped, might not start again, started 1st of February 2017):
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased but you can guess them, active, no more plays before backtesting, started 16th of February 2017):
Record: 4-4 (4-6 with the -1,5 trials), +3,285 units

5. The 5th system (active, started 25th of February 2017, needs more backtesting):
Record: 3-2, +0,085 units

6. The 6th system (not started yet, backtesting showed +-0 results, might never start, might backtest more):

7. The 7th system (active, started 26th of February, can not be easily backtested, based on the 5th system):
Record: 5-0, +2,948

All systems total (started 7th of January 2017): +46,124 units

P.S. Vio says "hi". Dont even ask.

[Scrivero]

Today's plays:

Under-system: Maybe Ottawa-TB U4,5 if the odds rise more. At least to +260.
Early goal: No plays
5th system: Ottawa ML (0,5 units), LA ML (0,5 units) Also a double of both (0,2 units).
7th system:
- Ottawa: EVERYTHING you can find (0,2 units each). E.g. -1,5, O2,5, first period ML, reg, and everything that is about Ottawa winning.
- LA: EVERYTHING you can find (0,2 units each). E.g. -1,5, O2,5, first period ML, reg, and everything that is about LA winning.

I will increase the 5th system bets to 1 unit when I trust it more. I will increase the 7th system bets first back to 0,5 units and then to 1 units when I trust it more. There's no hurry.

Good luck to us!

[xdodger19]

Ottawa vs tampa bay looks like a 3-2 game wouldnt touch that over under if anything over is more likely but at
those odds no value
Value on Ottawa

Capitals game tuesday looks like it will go over

[Scrivero]

Ottawa vs tampa bay looks like a 3-2 game wouldnt touch that over under if anything over is more likely but at
those odds no value
Value on Ottawa

Capitals game tuesday looks like it will go over

You got it, Im glad I didnt touch the under.

Ok, we got some wins, some push, mostly losses though. I think -1,2 units in total. A good result considering that both of our matches lost and we bet ca 3 units overall. The 7th system does exactly what its supposed to, spreads the risk.

Not posting the exact stats tonight, just gonna post the new plays. Will be one 4th system bet, one or two 5th system bets sprinkled with bunch of 7th system bets, also will be 1-4 Under system bets.

See you in ca 12 hours!

[Scrivero]

Not exact stat totals but stats for follow up from yesterday:

Under-system: No plays
Early goal: No plays
5th system: 0-2, -1,2 units
7th system: 3-4-1, -0,06 units

Total: -1,26 units.

Tonight's plays:

Under-system, 0,5 units each:
1. Caps-Rangers U4,5
2. Nashville-Buffalo U4,5
3. Wild-Jets U4,5
4. Pittsburgh-Dallas U4,75
5. Toronto-San Jose U4,5
Early goal: No plays
4th system: Arizona ML, 0,5 units
5th system, 0,5 units each:
1. Vancouver ML
2. Minnesota ML
7th system 0,2 units each:
1. Vancouver: EVERYTHING you can find. E.g. -1,5, O2,5, first period ML, first period -0,5, reg, opponent U2,5 and everything that is about Vancouver winning.
2. Minnesota: EVERYTHING you can find. E.g. -1,5, O2,5, first period ML, first period -0,5, reg, opponent U2,5 and everything that is about Minnesota winning.

Good luck to us!

By the way, we got altogether 22 bets in tonight, for 7,1 units. Thats why we only had 0,5 and 0,2 unit bets tonight. In the future it would be 22 bets for 22 units with this type of night with 4 working systems. Probably ca 55 units with 10 working systems. We "should" win ca 0,8 units tonight with these bet sizes. With 1 unit bet sizes it "should" be ca 2,7 units of profit. Not sure if we will actually get to playing for 22 units per night, let alone for 55 units Well, playing 0,5 units for each bet would be 11 units with 4 systems and ca 27,5 units with 10 systems. Most likely we will continue having different bet sizes for different systems. Lets continue slow and steady, this is certainly a marathon, not a sprint.

[Scrivero]

Better stats and all system totals later but quick stats for the night:

Record: 5-15-1: -2,148 units.

Having a bit of a dry spell with the unders. Should also very soon backtest the 5th system more, to be able to trust it and the 7th system more. Will have a bet free holiday after tonight (Wednesday) because of a holiday trip. Back on Saturday after that.

Still plays coming for tonight with the exact stats.

[Scrivero]

No plays on any of our systems tonight unless Pittsburgh-Chicago U4,5 would suddenly be playable. 1 unit for that if it is.

So see you next time on Saturday! Here are the stats before our break, including the 2 previous nights:

Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+20,045 units (singles), +23,335 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 8-9, +13,55 units

3. The tail -system (stopped, might not start again, started 1st of February 2017):
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased but you can guess them, active, started 16th of February 2017):
Record: 4-5, +2,585 units

5. The 5th system (active, started 25th of February 2017, needs more backtesting):
Record: 4-5, +1,065 units

6. The 6th system (not started yet, backtesting showed +-0 results, might never start, might backtest more):

7. The 7th system (active, started 26th of February, can not be easily backtested, based on the 5th system):
Record: 11-12, +1,894

All systems total (started 7th of January 2017): +42,716 units

See you on Saturday! No plays until then due to a holiday trip. BOL if you play any of the systems!

[Scrivero]

Pittsburgh-Chicago became playable as an U4,5 for sure.

I did not feel like back testing the 5th system yet, BUT, I made two new systems and made some statistical analysis on them.

8. The Shutout-system:
- Basically betting both teams to shutout the other team with score 1-0 to 4-0. Lots of easy stats available on shutouts. Just needed to compare with the odds and was evident that this system is not profitable. Will not start it. Will add to a list of failed/tested systems, will make such a list later.

9. The low score-system:
- Guessing the exact score of a game, a low score on regulation, from 0-0 to 4-1. 15 alternatives. Easy to calculate and noticed that with our U4,5 system games this low score system loses a lot compared to it. With other games its closer but not gonna be started at least now. Might calculate it again with a most likely very low scoring game later.

Gotta stop being this lazy and just back test the whole 5th system. Gonna use our proven-to-be-average season 2011-2012. Results soon. Not telling the rules of the systems but will reveal the results.

[Scrivero]

Backtested the 5th system with the 2011-2012 season. Results:

66-57. The original testing showed 100-50. Hmm, lets calculate if its worth it to play this system:

Betting 123 units (1 unit per game). With +100 average odds (just an estimate) we would have a profit of: +9 units. With our original estimate of -125 odds we would get a profit of: -4,2 units.

STOP THE PRESS! Well, at least stop the 5th and the 7th systems straight away. I might back test it more but getting ca +-0 units for the whole year is not worth it. Especially because in the 5th system it wasnt about the odds or just getting the plays just like that. One had to look at the history too, which takes a bit of time. Also, our goal is to create ten +30 units systems. We dont want to be selling our services/products with a 0% margin (doing a system with 0 or close to it profit). It just takes our resources (time, brains) and creates more variance. We cant even market our other products through that 0 margin product, cant put flyers with the packages, cant use it to create money fast short term by selling our inventory etc. Its useless as a system if it does not make us money.

It's official, the 5th and the 7th systems are now on an indefinite break. I might test them more but maybe not. We will see.

List of working systems as of now:
1. Under-system: +23,335 units
2. Early goal system: +13,55 units
4. The 4th system: +2,585 units

List of systems on a break/ended/not starting:
3. The Tail system: +2,536 units
5. The 5th system: -1,065 units (there was a mistake in the previous total stats)
6. The 6th system: Did not start/will not start
7. The 7th system: +1,894 units
8. The Shutout system: Not gonna start
9. The Low scores system: Did not start/will not start

Ok, no more new systems or back testing tonight, I think.

[Scrivero]

Again the under was close, we will start hitting them soon again. I'm off to a holiday trip, no bets during it. See you on Saturday!

[Scrivero]

No bets during the trip, thats what I said... Did you believe me? Maybe... Did I believe it? I think so.. Did it actually go as planned? NO!

So I made the system bets during the holiday too. Took ca 5 minutes each night. Was great to notice how fast it is.

It went like this:

Under-system (0,5 unit bets):
4-2, +4,735 units

The 4th system (0,5 unit bets):
1-4, -0,95 units

Total: +3,785

I apologize if anyone missed the winning picks with the Under system, I recommend right now to bet everything above +260. So you dont really need me to post them anymore. I will though, but just as a simple rule.

Totals so far (including the Pittsburgh-loss from 3 nights ago):

Working systems:
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+23,78 units (singles), +27,07 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 8-9, +13,55 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased but you can guess them, active, started 16th of February 2017):
Record: 5-9, +1,635 units

Possible starting systems/under back testing:
8. The shutout system (this might be started, I think I miscalculated this system's chances):

List of systems on a break/ended/not starting:
3. The tail -system (stopped, might not start again, started 1st of February 2017):
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

5. The 5th system (inactive/stopped, started 25th of February 2017):
Record: 4-5, -1,065 units

6. The 6th system (not started yet, backtesting showed +-0 results, might never start, might backtest more):

7. The 7th system (inactive/stopped, started 26th of February):
Record: 11-12, +1,894

9. The low scores system (might never start, needs more backtesting in one part):

All systems total (started 7th of January 2017): +45,501 units

[Scrivero]

Today's bets:

The 4th system, all ML, 0,5 units each:
- Detroit, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Colorado, New Jersey

There was a small adjustment to this system. This night shows a lot, for me. This system does not feel that good. I will need to back test it after the minor adjustment in any case.

Under system, 0,5 units each:
1. Chicago-Nashville U4,5
2. Stars-Panthers U4,75

This system now only has 0,5 unit bets for a while. I dont want to "push" it too much when Im not 100 % comfortable with it, I also want to concentrate more on creating more systems and hence leaving more space (more units) to bet on the new systems/test them. We will have many more systems in the future with hopefully all soon with 1 unit bets and hopefully then increasing the unit size already for next season.

Good luck to us!

[Scrivero]

Added the Winnipeg-game to unders, so here are the final plays for tonight:

The 4th system, all ML, 0,5 units each:
- Detroit, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Colorado, New Jersey

Under system, 0,5 units each:
1. Chicago-Nashville U4,5
2. Stars-Panthers U4,75
3. Colorado-Winnipeg U4,5 Reg (This was +205, you can take the U4,75 on Pinnacle at +229, they are pretty much equal in value, I dont even know which one is better. Both are equal to about +290 in normal U4,5)

[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
The 4th system, all ML, 0,5 units each:
- Detroit, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Colorado, New Jersey -> 4 losses, 1 win (Vancouver)
- Total -0,845 units

Under system, 0,5 units each:
1. Chicago-Nashville U4,5 LOSS
2. Stars-Panthers U4,75 WIN!!
3. Colorado-Winnipeg U4,5 Reg LOSS
- Total +0,21 units

Total of all systems (since the first one started 7th of January 2017): +44,866 units.

Need to save my time, so going to start posting the full totals of all systems just one or maybe two times per week. At least not every day like now. Just gonna post the grand total of all systems after every day.

Trying to back test the Shutout system today. Trying to back test the 4th system again today with the minor adjustment that I made. Not sure if I like the 4th system but even today with big odds 4 of the 5 games were 1-goal-games, so it could still be ok. Original back testing had good results but we will see.

[Scrivero]

Ok, time to (read: no free time to do it before this today) back test the 4th system a bit better and to back test the Shutout system. Back with results later.

Today's plays:

Under-system:
1. Sabres-Penguins U4,5: 0,5 units

4th system:
1. Canucks ML: 0,5 units
2. Sabres ML: 0,5 units

Good luck to us!

[Scrivero]

Ok, I recalculated the 4th systems and got AMAZING results. TOO amazing, way too amazing, I did not trust it at all. This is what I got:

75 wins, 63 losses with average odds of +225. That would mean, with 1 unit bets: +105 units So you can see why I am doubting that?

Ok, so I tried to understand whats going on. I noticed that in my stats (where I have each game twice, as every teams' every game is separately in the stats. So instead of ca 1300 games there are ca 2600 games. I take that into account with all my back tests and remove the dublicaes but with this one there were no dublicates. If a game had ended to a dog winning and the odds were +225, it did not have a dublicate of that. And when I checked the same game from the opposing team's stats, it suddenly showed a -250.

So I dug deeper and noticed that all games that have a row of "Win" and a negative number was a game where the favorite won. A row with a Win and a positive number was a game where the Dog won. Simple, right? Well, it wasnt that simple when the stats where also showing a "Loss" and a negative or a positive number.

So I finally was able to calculate the actual reality, and the results were:

20 wins, 45 losses. Sounds reasonable when the odds are ca +225. So lets calculate a full season with 1 unit bets: +-0 units. Exactly +-0 units So are we gonna continue this system? NO WAY! We already did the 2 plays for tonight, so lets hope we hit 1 of them to keep the system with a positive results in the end. If not, then the system took ca 0,2 units from us. Not a bad loss.

Ok, next up back testing the Shutout system. I hope I did a miscalculation on that system when I first calculated it. And I hope that mistake was a good one, meaning that we could actually start playing that system already tonight!

[Scrivero]

Ok, back tested around 70 % of the shutout system (at least I thought so, read until the end of the post)... Oh man... I gotta say that this is VERY interesting. I dont know if all sportbooks offer an option where the team is shut down, or option for even scores. I have a sportbook that has it, but I have not seen it for example on Pinnacle. Anyone know if they offer it?

In any case... There are so many possible scenarios that its difficult to calculate average odds for the entire system. I already calculated the % of times that a game ends up 1-0, 2-0, 0-5, 0-3 etc. I do have the odds for every game. But its gonna take forever to group and calculate those. I have instead made average odds for scenarios such as "an even game, and even O/U" or "home team is favorite, an O-game" etc. etc. There are probably around.. well, there are exactly 12 of those exact scenarios. And then around 24 notable ones falling in between.

I will not calculate all. I am seeing the trend of the odds already now. And I can say that... we should play each game for 1 unit for all possible shutout scores besides 0-0, 6-0, 7-0, 0-6 and 0-7. That leaves 1-0 to 5-0 and 0-1 to 0-5. We could also leave out 5-0 and 0-5. Lets say that we would play all of those even with just 0,1 units per results for each game. Tonight 7 games. That would be 7 units in play. This sounds like a very high variance system.

I think what I have to do is to try to exclude as many as possible of such shut out bets which are happening less often than 1/100 times (my sportbook has a max odds of 100 (+9900). I think I can eliminate a lot of possible bets, maybe to get the bets for a 7 game evening down to like 3,5 units.

And when I look at previous nights' scores, there are roughly 1 shutout each night, on average. I think we are onto something. This just takes like 20 hours more to back test and calculate before it can be started. Unless I start it with like 0,01 unit bets That could be done to see how it works, how much time it takes to make all the bets (70 bets for tonight only). We will see.