Scrivero's Hot Singles - Over/Under-system and more

Scrivero · 01-31-17, 02:49 PM

Today's bets, 1 unit each:

1. NJ-Detroit Over 5,5 +145
2. Ottawa-Florida Under 4,5 +125
3. Buffalo-Montreal Under 4,5 +120
4. Boston-TB Over 5,5 +115
5. LA-Arizona Under 4,5 +125
6. Minnesota-Edmonton Over 5,5 +130
7. Colorado-Anaheim Under 4,5 +130
8. Chicago-SJ Over 5,5 +125

No bets for the Early goal system as I wont be awake during the games tonight.

Good luck to all!

Scrivero · 01-31-17, 03:06 PM

Did not remember to mention that these odds are all for regular time/60 minutes. This affects the Under 4,5 in a positive way as 2-2 regular time will give us a win. No pushes in this system. I will see if I should move to Over/Under 5 at some point, but so far the Over 5,5 and the Under 4,5 (and occasional Under 5,5) have been very succesfull.

sedwards86 · 01-31-17, 04:02 PM

What sportsbook do you use? I have 5dimes and Bovada, but I don't think I can bet 60-min (REG) totals.

Scrivero · 02-01-17, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by sedwards86

What sportsbook do you use? I have 5dimes and Bovada, but I don't think I can bet 60-min (REG) totals.

I am using Coolbet. I might move to another one though, will compare the odds on Pinnacle, 5dimes and Bovada. If someone wants to tail and can not get the 60-min totals with their sportbook, they might as well just do the Under 5 instead. Whatever one loses in odds, one makes up with the many pushes. I still kinda like the win or lose with bigger odds though, and I would not get minimum +115 odds with O5 or U5 most likely. The systems is just about that. I will still look into other sportbooks and U5/O5 though.

We are so far 3/7 for the night, with one game still pending. Will post the final results and stats soon.

Scrivero · 02-01-17, 01:32 AM

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. NJ-Detroit Over 5,5 +145 WIN!!
2. Ottawa-Florida Under 4,5 +125 LOSS
3. Buffalo-Montreal Under 4,5 +120 LOSS
4. Boston-TB Over 5,5 +115 WIN!!
5. LA-Arizona Under 4,5 +125 LOSS
6. Minnesota-Edmonton Over 5,5 +130 WIN!!
7. Colorado-Anaheim Under 4,5 +130 LOSS
8. Chicago-SJ Over 5,5 +125 LOSS

3/8 right, loss of 1,1 units, quite ok.

The beauty with this system is that 4/8 would already give us a profit of ca +1 unit. 5/8 gives ca +3,2 units.

Basically we want to be able to play as many games as possible. The more games we play, the more we win in the long run because of the +odds. Our average odds are now close to +125. Meaning that if we hit half of our picks, we get a ROI of 11,25 % just with the singles. We get to play ca 600 games throughout the season, making us roughly 67,5 units in a season.

We want to make more money though. We will try to improve the system as we move forward. All suggestions of improvement are welcome. Small adjustments can mean big bucks. Maybe we will just play the +overs if it seems that the unders are losing us money. We will need to check our stats with Overs vs. Unders so far. I will post those stats later today.

Statistics for the systems:

1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+14,66 units (singles), +20,15 units (singles and parlays)

Record:
Singles hitting so far: 43-38: +14,66 units
Doubles hitting so far: 3-2 +4,51 units
Triples hitting so far: 1-2 +0,98 units

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 4-2 +9,75 units

Flea Hotel · 02-01-17, 05:33 AM

Use 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Sportsbet or Bet365, they all allow in regulation plays. In fact, almost every book allows them, their just tricky to find sometimes. 5Dimes and Pinnacle are easily the best. 5Dimes takes US players, if you can use Pinnacle, use Pinnacle for everything. I use 888 and Bet365 for some player prop bets.

Interesting system here Scrivero....

Originally posted by sedwards86

What sportsbook do you use? I have 5dimes and Bovada, but I don't think I can bet 60-min (REG) totals.

Scrivero · 02-01-17, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Use 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Sportsbet or Bet365, they all allow in regulation plays. In fact, almost every book allows them, their just tricky to find sometimes. 5Dimes and Pinnacle are easily the best. 5Dimes takes US players, if you can use Pinnacle, use Pinnacle for everything. I use 888 and Bet365 for some player prop bets.

Interesting system here Scrivero....

Thanks for the tip. I think I will try get Pinnacle going, as I can use it from my country. Thanks for the comment on the system too! I wish I could use the early goal system more too, sucks to sleep when the games are on. Gotta get up for work at 7am so cant really watch the games that often at 3am. And I am anxious about revealing my third system. I think I will try it for the first time tonight. I think it will become the most profitable one too.

As pomised, here is my Over/under record so far divided to Overs and Unders:
- Over 5,5: 30-21, ca +15,00 units
- Under 4,5: 13-15, ca +1,90 units
- Under 5,5: 0-2, -2 units

The +units in total differs from the actual +total, because I had to estimate the average odds for Overs and Unders, as I dont have the exact odds tracked. I estimated U4,5 to be ca +130 odds and O5,5 to be ca +120 odds. The average odds of the playable games are ca +125 but the ones that hit will make the average (and our ROI) either higher or lower than the +125 (or our estimated ROI of 11,25 %).

At least the Unders are not hurting us, at least yet. And we lost 4 unders during last night so we gotta give them a bit (much) more time to see whether we want to keep them or not.

sedwards86 · 02-01-17, 06:42 AM

The Unders are still above water, so I would stick with them. I have a suggestion. Break down the Unders into games on East Conf. ice compared to how they perform on West Conf. ice. Games played on West Conf. ice tend to be low-scoring, especially when both teams are in the West Conference.

You may find that the East Conf. games are hurting, or even vice versa.

Scrivero · 02-01-17, 06:45 AM

Today's bets, 1 unit each:

1. Boston-Washington Over 5,5 +125
2. Minnesota-Calgary Over 5,5 +128
3. Colorado-LA Under 4,5 +130

0,2 units for a triple of all three with odds +1080

I might post the first bets of my third system later if I start it.

Scrivero · 02-01-17, 07:18 AM

Originally posted by sedwards86

The Unders are still above water, so I would stick with them. I have a suggestion. Break down the Unders into games on East Conf. ice compared to how they perform on West Conf. ice. Games played on West Conf. ice tend to be low-scoring, especially when both teams are in the West Conference.

You may find that the East Conf. games are hurting, or even vice versa.

Good suggestion! I will do that when I have the next longer free moment. It wont take that long to do it but still. Better to cut out the weeds early if they can be found.

Scrivero · 02-01-17, 11:20 AM

Alright, compared different sportbooks and I am going with 5dimes for now, starting in a couple of days there. Much better odds expecially for O/U than what I get from my current book. I will have to see if the live betting option is as good.

I also noticed something interesting with the O/U odds, might tweak my system a little bit.

No Early goal -system bets tonight, wont be awake during the games. No bets in the new Third system yet, didnt have time to finalize it.

Will look at the East conf. ice vs. West conf. ice -matter when I have finished the Third system, started at 5dimes, and tweaked the O/U system a bit. Would be much faster without a full time job, full time wife and full time small baby

sedwards86 · 02-01-17, 05:38 PM

Damn, we are on opposite sides in the first two games. I hate when this happens. I'd be cool if we each went
1-1 because both bets are + odds.

Mike Huntertz · 02-01-17, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by sedwards86

The Unders are still above water, so I would stick with them. I have a suggestion. Break down the Unders into games on East Conf. ice compared to how they perform on West Conf. ice. Games played on West Conf. ice tend to be low-scoring, especially when both teams are in the West Conference.

You may find that the East Conf. games are hurting, or even vice versa.

I agree unless a bottom feeder is in there. GL

HoleCamels · 02-01-17, 06:17 PM

Dont do under 4.5's youll lose long term

Scrivero · 02-02-17, 03:02 PM

Thanks for the comments guys!

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Boston-Washington Over 5,5 +125 WIN!!
2. Minnesota-Calgary Over 5,5 +128 WIN!!
3. Colorado-LA Under 4,5 +130 LOSS

0,2 units for a triple of all three with odds +1080 LOSS

2/3 right, profit of +1,33 units, good.

Statistics for the systems:

1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+16,19 units (singles), +21,48 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 4-2, +9,75 units

3. Unannounced new system (test start 1st of February 2017)
Record: 3-0, +3,2 units

We are most likely moving to just Overs with the Over/Under system, as we are now getting better odds as we have moved to Pinnacle. Hence we have more games with good enough odds for overs. Also, the Unders seem to be more difficult to hit with the 4,5 line. I will still check the West vs East at some point but I think you guys are right about the unders.

I said at latest 3pm EST I will post my pics. Im gonna fail that today by 5 minutes because I was at a hockey game. Posting my picks in 3 minutes.

Scrivero · 02-02-17, 03:06 PM

Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Montreal-Philadelphia Over 5,5 +120
2. Oilers-Predators Over 5,5 +125
3. Chicago-Arizona Over 5,5 +130

0,2 units on a triple of all three +1039

By the way, this is the last day with just Coolbet. Moving most of the bets to Pinnacle tomorrow.

sedwards86 · 02-02-17, 04:34 PM

Still trying to figure it all out. What disqualifies Sharks-Canucks o5.5 +170 from being bet?

Scrivero · 02-02-17, 04:46 PM

Basically nothing would disqualify it. BUT, I have been going only and solely on the basis of what Coolbet provides as odds for the Over/Under categories in their "main market", so what they have as the main O/U-option. Basically, for that game, they have -147 for O4,5. They have +130 for O5,5 though, when I check the extra betting options. I did not even notice those options before yesterday.

When I move to Pinnacle tomorrow it will be much more straight forward. Just loads of O5,5 bets with good odds. I might have to pull up my minimum of +115 for the O5,5 bets. As I think I will get much much better odds and much more games than so far. Your example is just perfect for that, I should probably bet it too but I will keep the system as it was meant to be on Coolbet and make the tweaks tomorrow.

scsports · 02-02-17, 06:06 PM

Hi Schrivero,

If you use Pinnacle odds from now on, I think it's still very profitable to play the Unders in your system. Most of the lines on the ones you have posted previously were at least +160 or higher when you have been posting +120 to +130 odds. Your record of 13-16 at the Pinnacle odds make it much more profitable. Obviously it's your call but I was playing them previously using Pinnacle odds for the prior two weeks and they have been rather good.

Originally posted by Scrivero

Thanks for the comments guys!

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Boston-Washington Over 5,5 +125 WIN!!
2. Minnesota-Calgary Over 5,5 +128 WIN!!
3. Colorado-LA Under 4,5 +130 LOSS

0,2 units for a triple of all three with odds +1080 LOSS

2/3 right, profit of +1,33 units, good.

Statistics for the systems:

1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+16,19 units (singles), +21,48 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 4-2, +9,75 units

3. Unannounced new system (test start 1st of February 2017)
Record: 3-0, +3,2 units

We are most likely moving to just Overs with the Over/Under system, as we are now getting better odds as we have moved to Pinnacle. Hence we have more games with good enough odds for overs. Also, the Unders seem to be more difficult to hit with the 4,5 line. I will still check the West vs East at some point but I think you guys are right about the unders.

I said at latest 3pm EST I will post my pics. Im gonna fail that today by 5 minutes because I was at a hockey game. Posting my picks in 3 minutes.

Scrivero · 02-03-17, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by scsports

Hi Schrivero,

If you use Pinnacle odds from now on, I think it's still very profitable to play the Unders in your system. Most of the lines on the ones you have posted previously were at least +160 or higher when you have been posting +120 to +130 odds. Your record of 13-16 at the Pinnacle odds make it much more profitable. Obviously it's your call but I was playing them previously using Pinnacle odds for the prior two weeks and they have been rather good.

I think you could be right as well. Having e.g. +150 odds would require hitting 2 out of 5 games to be at +-0. 3/5 would give a profit of 2,5 units. I will see what to do.I can also look at the odds that I get with U5.

Scrivero · 02-03-17, 10:23 AM

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Montreal-Philadelphia Over 5,5 +120 LOSS
2. Oilers-Predators Over 5,5 +125 LOSS
3. Chicago-Arizona Over 5,5 +130 WIN!!

0,2 units on a triple of all three +1039 LOSS

1/3, loss of 0,9 units with the triple included.

Statistics for the systems:

1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+15,49 units (singles), +20,58 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 4-2, +9,75 units

3. Unannounced new system (test start 1st of February 2017)
Record: 5-1, +4,13 units

All systems total: +34,46 units

I will unveil the new system tonight! I will start a new thread for it, as I think people will get good money from it and it will otherwise be buried in this thread.

at396 · 02-03-17, 10:27 AM

I saw on the other forum you would be moving to "another similar forum" (or whatever your words were). Glad to see you ended up here. Been following the system for a week. I like it so far and can't wait for the new system too.

Scrivero · 02-03-17, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by at396

I saw on the other forum you would be moving to "another similar forum" (or whatever your words were). Glad to see you ended up here. Been following the system for a week. I like it so far and can't wait for the new system too.

Yea I didnt want to advertise another forum there either, I'm happy that you found your way to this thread just from that tip

Much more action going on here. More comments means more development and more success. Thanks for the comments man!

Scrivero · 02-03-17, 03:14 PM

Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Flames-Devils Over 5,5 +182
2. Ducks-Panthers Over 5,5 +156

0,5 units on a double of both +608 (they seem to "punish" parlays or "multiples" as they call them on Pinnacle, meaning that the odds are smaller for the matches when played together, hence the double odds are smaller than it should be without the decrease in odds).

The odds sure look a bit different on Pinnacle than on Coolbet. Will be interesting to see how our system adjusts to this change. Both of these games would have been Under 4,5 (in regulation) in the old system with odds +120 each.

By the way, scsports, the difference in the odds for unders when comparing Pinnacle and Coolbet seems to be mostly from the fact that on Coolbet they are all Regulation bets. So 2-2 would be a win on Coolbet whereas on Pinnacle it would be a loss. Does not explain the diffrence in odds for the Over 5,5 though, as OT doesnt matter when it ends 3-3 or 2-3 etc. The bet is hence decided in regulation even if its an OT bet.

I have not seen regulation Under 4,5s anywhere else than Coolbet. I will see wehther I could somehow profitably continue them. Or I will just take the much much bigger odds with the Pinnace OT-bets. We will see.

scsports · 02-03-17, 05:59 PM

Yeah, I understand what you are saying. Sounds good.

Originally posted by Scrivero

Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Flames-Devils Over 5,5 +182
2. Ducks-Panthers Over 5,5 +156

0,5 units on a double of both +608 (they seem to "punish" parlays or "multiples" as they call them on Pinnacle, meaning that the odds are smaller for the matches when played together, hence the double odds are smaller than it should be without the decrease in odds).

The odds sure look a bit different on Pinnacle than on Coolbet. Will be interesting to see how our system adjusts to this change. Both of these games would have been Under 4,5 (in regulation) in the old system with odds +120 each.

By the way, scsports, the difference in the odds for unders when comparing Pinnacle and Coolbet seems to be mostly from the fact that on Coolbet they are all Regulation bets. So 2-2 would be a win on Coolbet whereas on Pinnacle it would be a loss. Does not explain the diffrence in odds for the Over 5,5 though, as OT doesnt matter when it ends 3-3 or 2-3 etc. The bet is hence decided in regulation even if its an OT bet.

I have not seen regulation Under 4,5s anywhere else than Coolbet. I will see wehther I could somehow profitably continue them. Or I will just take the much much bigger odds with the Pinnace OT-bets. We will see.

scsports · 02-03-17, 11:34 PM

Good work today Scrivero

Scrivero · 02-04-17, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by scsports

Good work today Scrivero

Thanks!

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Flames-Devils Over 5,5 +182 WIN!!
2. Ducks-Panthers Over 5,5 +156 LOSS

0,5 units on a double of both +608 LOSS

1/2 singles, profit of +0,32 units (including the double's loss).

Profit of +0,91 units in the new system.

Statistics for the systems:

1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+16,31 units (singles), +20,90 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 4-2, +9,75 units

3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
Record: 6-1, +5,04 units

4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

All systems total: +35,69 units.

Early games today! Early goal system will be implemented. I will post my Overs and Early goals to this thread and the tails to my new Tail-thread here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-betting/3360397-finding-best-tail-hockey-betting-sbr-i-do-work-we-all-take-cash.html

Scrivero · 02-04-17, 07:46 AM

Cant post any overs today because pinnacle does not work properly on mobile at least for me. I am the spa and dont have my laptop with me. I can not change the overs from 5 to 5.5 so i get only minusodds. Not gonna play overs on Coolbet anymore. 5dimes had problems with card deposits so cant try there either.

Will however do the Early goal system on all the following games:
1. Washington-Montreal
2. Kings-Flyers
3. Winnipeg-Colorado

0.5 units for the team that gives up a goal during the first 10 minutes.

Will post my tail picks to the tail thread if I find good tails. Tough on a small screen.

sedwards86 · 02-04-17, 08:52 AM

I can help you out with posting your overs. I just need to look for o5.5's that are +115 or higher, right?

sedwards86 · 02-04-17, 10:43 AM

Caps/Canadiens o5.5 (+160)
Kings/Flyers o5.5 (+140)

I just got these on 5Dimes

Scrivero · 02-04-17, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by sedwards86

Caps/Canadiens o5.5 (+160)
Kings/Flyers o5.5 (+140)

I just got these on 5Dimes

Nice! Glad to see thay the O5.5s are so good each night. I wish I could bet them. I will check if Pinnacle works for me on the tablet. If not, then I will not include them in the system stats as I want to track my actual winnings/losses at the same time.

But yes, you got it, thats exactlt what I look for.

A note about the early goal system: I bet the team that gives th early goal (in first 10 minutes) BUT I bet it 3way/1X2/reg as the odds are very good. I might move to moneyline but not tonight.

sedwards86 · 02-04-17, 12:31 PM

Senators/Sabres o5.5 (+130)
Devils/Jackets o5.5 (+110)
Ducks/Lightning o5.5 (+125)
Red Wings/Predators o5.5 (+125)
Wild/Canucks o5.5 (+140)
Coyotes/Sharks o5.5 (+125)

Those are all plays for the system. I wasn't sure about moving Penguins/Blues to o6.5 for +110...

Scrivero · 02-04-17, 12:43 PM

Got em! Caps with +175 and Kings with +144. 1 unit each. And 0.5 units on double with ca +560. Thans for inspiring me to try to get pinnacle workin again man!

Scrivero · 02-04-17, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by sedwards86

Senators/Sabres o5.5 (+130)
Devils/Jackets o5.5 (+110)
Ducks/Lightning o5.5 (+125)
Red Wings/Predators o5.5 (+125)
Wild/Canucks o5.5 (+140)
Coyotes/Sharks o5.5 (+125)

Those are all plays for the system. I wasn't sure about moving Penguins/Blues to o6.5 for +110...

Thanks for the heads up man! Pinnacle is real pain on the tablet. I did not even see those matches, maybe it was showing me just the early games. I will check those again later.

By the way, I might want to move the playable line higher, to like +125. That is because with better odds I could potentially get like 10 or more games per night. Add my other systems and I could be playing for 15 units a night. I dont really like the sound of that. I have had 8 units nights before and that was ok but... I have to see what I will do.