Flea Hotel's NHL Legend's Club

**Cordoba25** · 01-13-17, 04:19 PM

I take it rest doesn't factor into NHL as much as it does in other sports like NBA as Arizona coming off of 5 day lay off and your model still Winnipeg at +EV to score >2 goals. Interesting. Don't know anything about hockey analytics (or capping NHL for that matter) but would have guessed rest plays some sort of factor. I guess not.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-13-17, 04:46 PM

Rest is a pretty significant variable in round one of my model. What I've found is rest isn't as big of an influence as it is in the NBA. I don't have the exact stat here (I'm on a bus) but I think last year teams with 3+ days of rest actually unperformed teams with 1 day of rest by something small, but significant in it contradicting logic. In the NBA, I find rest is a much bigger factor and its variable is weighted higher in my NBA totals model than my NHL one. I personally don't think a 5 day lay off is statically an advantage in either sport. What's funny is there is a site somewhere where some guy has all this logged going back to 1995 or 1996 with both sports, how teams perform rested vs unrested vs super rested. I know his conclusions were ideally, a team plays best with 1 day rest than 2 but 3 days better than 5 but not 4. Something annoying, but yeah, it is considered in my model but whatever data I took from his site last year is formulated in that model. If I find the site I'll post it here. I know it's pretty easy to find sites that show NFL teams don't perform better statistically after their bye week, I think it's freakishly close to being statistically insignificant, big rests can break momentum and many coaches in all leagues don't like long rest breaks. Many coaches opposed the old Super Bowl 2 week delay due to this and some NFL coaches aren't fans of getting the bye week, especially when they're playing well at the end of the season. I personally think this will show in the GB vs DAL game on Sunday.

Originally posted by Cordoba25

I take it rest doesn't factor into NHL as much as it does in other sports like NBA as Arizona coming off of 5 day lay off and your model still Winnipeg at +EV to score >2 goals. Interesting. Don't know anything about hockey analytics (or capping NHL for that matter) but would have guessed rest plays some sort of factor. I guess not.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-13-17, 04:49 PM

LOL, why not bet some winning games and get the points instead of throwing them away. The Patriots are going to beat Houston by 20+

Originally posted by knicksrulez

I tailed you on the GSW over as well and cashed, this week I will not play any NFL games, I learned my lesson already, can't remember last time I won in NFL

Gonna spend it traveling with my girl, for the action I wagered 400 betpoints on the Texans ML, and if it cashes I promised I'd go pro trough the donation, let us see

**thekoreanmang** · 01-13-17, 04:59 PM

Since we're headed back to TTs for a little while thought I'd share this:

Flea Hotel's Iconic Team Totals Thread - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-betting/3344180-flea-hotels-iconic-team-totals-thread-p8.html

NHL handicapping, hockey betting, picks, matchups and the latest game results in the NHL forum.

(YTD 22-8, 73%, +14.38)

TT Performance in Current Thread
1/9: 0-2 (-2.3u)
1/10: 1-0 (+1u)
1/12: 2-0 (+2u)
Total: 3-2 (+0.7u)

Combined Threads' TT Performance
YTD Overall: 25-10 (+15.08u; 71.4%)

Let me know if I'm off anywhere. Also, keep in mind this is only for TT performance and not other types of picks.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-13-17, 05:07 PM

I assume you forgot the stats from my TT Thread since most of the units won for TT's were from there or am I totally lost?

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Since we're headed back to TTs for a little while thought I'd share this:

Flea Hotel's Legendary Chalk Free Plays - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-betting/3343732-flea-hotels-legendary-chalk-free-plays-p9.html

NHL handicapping, hockey betting, picks, matchups and the latest game results in the NHL forum.

(YTD 22-8, 73%, +14.38)

TT Performance in Current Thread
1/9: 0-2 (-2.3u)
1/10: 1-0 (+1u)
1/12: 2-0 (+2u)
Total: 3-2 (+0.7u)

Combined Threads' TT Performance
YTD Overall: 25-10 (+15.08u; 71.4%)

Let me know if I'm off anywhere. Also, keep in mind this is only for TT performance and not other types of picks.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-13-17, 05:08 PM

I mean, forgot to mention that thread, the stats are there in the Combined Thread's TT Perfomance...

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

I assume you forgot the stats from my TT Thread since most of the units won for TT's were from there or am I totally lost?

**thekoreanmang** · 01-13-17, 05:20 PM

Not sure what happened. I was certain I posted your TT thread in there but in any event, I just fixed it.

I took the record/unit performance from your TT thread. I just wanted to see what your combined TT performance was since this thread is only accounting for overall unit performance across pick types. Thought you and others might be curious in seeing TT-specific performance since the focus is being shifted back to TTs only for a little while. I didn't know if you're already doing this privately.

Good luck, Flea.

PS. I just checked out JayRow's thread for the first time today and was sad to see that he's taking a hiatus. Maybe it's for the best.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-13-17, 05:38 PM

Yeah now it's accurate. Thx.

Yeah JR is taking a LoA. Sometimes that's a good thing. He just might be busy af. I know in March I probably won't have any time to bet on sports while I finish school. Who am I kidding, I'm always betting on sports. It's that cash money; I'm a junkie. I want my last words to be "take the over".

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Not sure what happened. I was certain I posted your TT thread in there but in any event, I just fixed it.

I took the record/unit performance from your TT thread. I just wanted to see what your combined TT performance was since this thread is only accounting for overall unit performance across pick types. Thought you and others might be curious in seeing TT-specific performance since the focus is being shifted back to TTs only for a little while. I didn't know if you're already doing this privately.

Good luck, Flea.

PS. I just checked out JayRow's thread for the first time today and was sad to see that he's taking a hiatus. Maybe it's for the best.

**Cordoba25** · 01-13-17, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Rest is a pretty significant variable in round one of my model. What I've found is rest isn't as big of an influence as it is in the NBA. I don't have the exact stat here (I'm on a bus) but I think last year teams with 3+ days of rest actually unperformed teams with 1 day of rest by something small, but significant in it contradicting logic. In the NBA, I find rest is a much bigger factor and its variable is weighted higher in my NBA totals model than my NHL one. I personally don't think a 5 day lay off is statically an advantage in either sport. What's funny is there is a site somewhere where some guy has all this logged going back to 1995 or 1996 with both sports, how teams perform rested vs unrested vs super rested. I know his conclusions were ideally, a team plays best with 1 day rest than 2 but 3 days better than 5 but not 4. Something annoying, but yeah, it is considered in my model but whatever data I took from his site last year is formulated in that model. If I find the site I'll post it here. I know it's pretty easy to find sites that show NFL teams don't perform better statistically after their bye week, I think it's freakishly close to being statistically insignificant, big rests can break momentum and many coaches in all leagues don't like long rest breaks. Many coaches opposed the old Super Bowl 2 week delay due to this and some NFL coaches aren't fans of getting the bye week, especially when they're playing well at the end of the season. I personally think this will show in the GB vs DAL game on Sunday.

Thx for your detailed insight on that. It definitley is, as you noted, contradictory logic as it relates it NHL. I would have never guessed it. As to the NBA site.. please share it. It'd be interesting to see... If you can't find it.. no biggie.

Interesting take on the GB game. Just don't know how they'll be able to stop the run considering how their first meeting went. Couple that with J. Nelson being out and butterfingers Devonte Adamds being AR main guy on recieving.. it's going to be tough. But AR is playing at MVP level again so who knows.. maybe they pull it off

GL tonight. Will be tailing.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-13-17, 06:27 PM

I certainly won't be shocked if Dallas wins but the age old question, what happens if GB goes up 7-0 always plays in my head. And while I think Dak is legit, I think he benefited quite a bit from Dallas's OL. How would Prescott's QB rating be if he started for the Browns. Rodgers, despite having all that money and that ridiculously hot woman is still playing like a nut (talk about being competitive, imagine if I put 50 mill USD in your bank account and sent Olivia Munn to your house tonight, would you even make it to the game?) and if the Zeke and Dak get into problems trailing, I see GB cruising to an easy win, even with Nelson out and Devonte being... at times inconsistent. Rodgers can move around in the pocket, not just to buy time for his receivers but he can scramble for net yardage that leave them 3rd and 3 instead of 3rd and 10. Dak tries to run a bit but every time he does it looks you know every Cowboy fan is holding their breath. The Cowboys remind me a lot of the 81-82 oilers: not quite there yet. Daz has been underwhelming and I just say if both teams are playing well, the lean may be on Dallas, but if both teams are playing meh, give me Rodgers. Gonna be a great game. So are the other two. The Pats game is OTB in my mind.

Originally posted by Cordoba25

Thx for your detailed insight on that. It definitley is, as you noted, contradictory logic as it relates it NHL. I would have never guessed it. As to the NBA site.. please share it. It'd be interesting to see... If you can't find it.. no biggie.

Interesting take on the GB game. Just don't know how they'll be able to stop the run considering how their first meeting went. Couple that with J. Nelson being out and butterfingers Devonte Adamds being AR main guy on recieving.. it's going to be tough. But AR is playing at MVP level again so who knows.. maybe they pull it off

GL tonight. Will be tailing.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-13-17, 06:34 PM

This isn't the site I had (still looking) but his this is another one. Interesting but sort of leads to a conclusion that rest doesn't factor too much, and I'd like to see rest pre-All star break vs post. I'm tracking all this myself for this and last season. I'm pretty sure it doesn't weigh much. site is here. and an interesting article here. this sort of goes along with your main query yet is terribly written and just leaves the reader confused in my opinion.

Originally posted by Cordoba25

Thx for your detailed insight on that. It definitley is, as you noted, contradictory logic as it relates it NHL. I would have never guessed it. As to the NBA site.. please share it. It'd be interesting to see... If you can't find it.. no biggie.

Interesting take on the GB game. Just don't know how they'll be able to stop the run considering how their first meeting went. Couple that with J. Nelson being out and butterfingers Devonte Adamds being AR main guy on recieving.. it's going to be tough. But AR is playing at MVP level again so who knows.. maybe they pull it off

GL tonight. Will be tailing.

**i70/i25 kid** · 01-13-17, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

It's my one month anniversary picking winners on this site. I have two great picks for tonight. One has a lot of juice but if you track all my picks on plays at -145 or more, I don't think I've lost a single one. Pass on it if it's too much chalk but my models have NYR getting 3 or more goals 81% of the time in this contest. If it were just a bit cheaper, I'd make it a 2 unit play. The Jets play is also chalky but I have them beating Arizona 4-1.
(YTD, +20.91u)

New York Rangers OVER 2.5 (-165) 1.65u to win 1u
Winnipeg Jets OVER 2.5 (-145) 1.45u to win 1u

It's at -190 now!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-13-17, 07:13 PM

I know, I'm surprised they didn't switch it to an o3.5 at plus money to try to settle that side. I'd hate to be an actual bookie right now if you took big bets at -165.

Originally posted by i70/i25 kid

It's at -190 now!

**goldust** · 01-13-17, 08:57 PM

Any chance we can still get to 3?

**BankrollMafia** · 01-13-17, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by goldust

Any chance we can still get to 3?

Leafs are really bad in 3rd period. We can pray, only need 2 more.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 03:31 AM

1-1, -0.65u
(YTD, +20.26u)

The Rangers looked horrid. This night will influence how I weigh certain variables, but honestly, Toronto simply was the better team. I also took it quite hard on my other picks including my own and the ones I tailed. Meh, today's a new day.

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

It's my one month anniversary picking winners on this site. I have two great picks for tonight. One has a lot of juice but if you track all my picks on plays at -145 or more, I don't think I've lost a single one. Pass on it if it's too much chalk but my models have NYR getting 3 or more goals 81% of the time in this contest. If it were just a bit cheaper, I'd make it a 2 unit play. The Jets play is also chalky but I have them beating Arizona 4-1.
(YTD, +20.91u)

New York Rangers OVER 2.5 (-165) 1.65u to win 1u
Winnipeg Jets OVER 2.5 (-145) 1.45u to win 1u

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 08:54 AM

Have plays... waiting for lines.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 09:34 AM

LOL @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle. No lines yet.

I'll be playing Philly TT u2.5 if Rask is in, unless it's super juiced. Have other plays, waiting for lines, very annoying because I wanna go to the gym.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 11:42 AM

Maybe more later, super busy. Tuuka should play. Pens & Detroit are averaging 8+ goals in their past 5 games.
(YTD, +20.26u)

Philadelphia Flyers UNDER 2.5 (-120) 1.2u to win 1u
Pittsburgh vs Detroit OVER 5.5 (-115) 1.15u to win 1u
Ottawa Senators OVER 2.5 (-140) 1.4u to win 1u
Dallas Stars UNDER 2.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u

**Bedard** · 01-14-17, 11:52 AM

Love the Pit vs DET Over, BOL!

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 11:59 AM

They've gone over in their past 5, averaging over 8. Hard not to bet it, especially at -115. I like Crosby to score prop bet if your book allows it, maybe 0.25 - 0.5u.

Originally posted by Bedard

Love the Pit vs DET Over, BOL!

**Joe'Dad** · 01-14-17, 12:05 PM

Food for thought. Toronto playing a Friday then back to Saturday. The other team has scored more then 3 goals then year. I believe Ottawa will score more then 3 goals on either goalie.

**HoleCamels** · 01-14-17, 12:13 PM

Yup I'm on the pit/det over as well

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 12:38 PM

Just back home. Agreed. Will add. Might have more later, uber busy with really lame shite.

Originally posted by Joe'Dad

Food for thought. Toronto playing a Friday then back to Saturday. The other team has scored more then 3 goals then year. I believe Ottawa will score more then 3 goals on either goalie.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 12:45 PM

There, added the Ottawa TT over and the Stars TT under. That's all for today, BOL to all on all their picks. Back tomorrow.

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 12:52 PM

Small chance I could be back with one more if I get time to crunch numberz.

**reed_barrington** · 01-14-17, 02:47 PM

since you like,
Dallas Stars UNDER 2.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u

I will slam WILD ML. Thanks - Reed

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 11:18 PM

1-3, -2.65 (Knew I should have 2united that Pens over, that was free money)
(YTD, +17.61u)

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

Maybe more later, super busy. Tuuka should play. Pens & Detroit are averaging 8+ goals in their past 5 games.
(YTD, +20.26u)

Philadelphia Flyers UNDER 2.5 (-120) 1.2u to win 1u
Pittsburgh vs Detroit OVER 5.5 (-115) 1.15u to win 1u
Ottawa Senators OVER 2.5 (-140) 1.4u to win 1u
Dallas Stars UNDER 2.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u

**Flea Hotel** · 01-14-17, 11:19 PM

Booya

Originally posted by reed_barrington

since you like,
Dallas Stars UNDER 2.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u

I will slam WILD ML. Thanks - Reed

**Flea Hotel** · 01-15-17, 10:58 AM

Bad last few days for everyone except the book. The Pats not covering (for most) easily made up for Stafford's TD vs GB, and no winning capper did well in NCAAB yesterday. Prob only two plays for today. Got big action on the football games, honestly don't care about the late games. I also have two winning picks in my MMA thread for tonight's shittiest card of all time nominee. BOL
(YTD, +17.61u)

Washington Capitals OVER 3.5 (+135) 1u to win 1.35u
Washington Capitals (1st 60 min) (-133) 1.33 to win 1u

**thekoreanmang** · 01-15-17, 11:13 AM

Good luck. What are you on for NFL?

**playr101** · 01-15-17, 12:09 PM

Gl today flea

**Flea Hotel** · 01-15-17, 12:12 PM

Taking the Packers ML, but I'm a homer. I don't want the points, if they cover, they win. I think Dak and Zeke are going to have a rough day. Have a non-monetary wager with the girlfriend on the KC/PIT game. You?

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Good luck. What are you on for NFL?

**reed_barrington** · 01-15-17, 01:33 PM

Lets go CAPS!

**wazsx** · 01-15-17, 01:35 PM

hey flea did u try betting on mise o jeu quebec? should be easy for since ur a good capper