No way it's a bad play. I sort of like the over too.
Originally posted by dcsbears
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Money on them since I got them at even money. Should be a good game. Originally posted by JayRowComment -
Was thinking Chicago too until Green and Abdelkator announced backCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
I don't think they'll be playing heavy minutes in their first games back, especially Abdelkator.. We'll see.Originally posted by Goat MilkComment -
Scared of the volume esp after a big winning day last night. I'm trying to implement a rule of keeping total risked down esp after a big plus day. Hard to implement with guys like you, doubledime and Heeluvaguy around. Good luck and thanks for sharing your picks.
Also, one quick note. The price difference on the O2.5 Chicago play varies widely price-wise. It's -165 at BetOnline and -130 at BookMaker. Also, I took the Chicago -2 (+255) b/c that's that BookMaker offers. BetOnline doesn't even offer that line.Comment -
I post my picks for people to tail, tail some, fade, pass, or help break a tie they might be having with themselves. This will be my last night of heavy volume if it's another red night.
I know, some of the lines are all over the place and each book has it's own ups and downs. I literally have funds in 5 books... Right now, Bet365 is my go-to but 5Dimes is close. Pinny, Heritage and 888 all serve certain purposes. I'm just posting the 5Dimes lines here since Americans can play there and I'm pretty sure SBR uses 5Dimes for their book.
-2? Cool, so if Chicago wins 5-3 it's a push?Originally posted by thekoreanmangComment -
I auto-tail all of doubledimes plays for a full unit but he's a proven winner. i've been liking HG's plays too.. Yeah, if tonight is a losing night I'm going back to one or two plays max a night, if that. I'll pick the best of the best since I don't want to implement a ranking system like donk touts do.
8* VIP GOTY SPECIAL!!!Originally posted by thekoreanmangComment -
Flea - your model seems to best select team total winners, maybe time to revive the team totals thread again and just focus on those? Regardless, appreciate your efforts!Comment -
Last night's results
-2.12u
Originally posted by Flea HotelComment -
(YTD, +21.14u)
I'll just say this once. I've had two consecutive losing nights. I've been picking NHL for 29 days now (on SBR) and I'm averaging, despite losing over 4u in the past two days, over 0.72u per DAY. I have said from the start that I am using a statistical model that is extremely dynamic and complex. Each day, I use the prior night's results to tweak the model. If you are betting massively and expecting to become rich, than you must be new to betting sports. Where I come from, a ten unit month is outstanding, a 20 unit month is ridiculous and despite losing over four units in the past two days, I'm still at over 21 units in less than a calendar month.
That being said, I am making two changes. I will reduce posted play volume. I can handle the swings, I don't want to feel bad for those who can't. I will continue to play my plays personally but I will only post the best of the best. If I don't have such a pick, I will pass. I will focus more on posting team totals since my model does seem to be most successful with those, at this time, though I'm killing in NBA totals of late. It does seem to be less effective with near pick-em sides but it's just a matter of time before it's hitting 60% of those too.
As usual, my picks are for educational purposes only. I personally use them to make cash money. I'm up over 20 units since Dec 13 which is a lot of cash money. You are more than welcomed to tail, fade or pass. There are other NHL cappers in this sub-forum. If two losing nights or even five losing nights is causing detriment to your bank roll, then you are betting too much per unit and must be very new to the game. Ask doubledime or SBR's other good cappers how many times they've run cold. I will speak for him and Jay Row and other's who profit and not the myriad of those who are in the negative, let some of you know that we are in this for the season, year and long term: not the night. If you need to action gamble, I suggest blackjack or roulette. 9 and 15 are my girlfriend's lucky numbers. I strive for a yearly ROI of 10% per year in my sportsbetting. I've gotten there every year but once since I started doing this in 2008.
This is the last time I'll say it. This is how most winning bettors manage their bankroll. First, take your entire bankroll and divide by 100. Now you have 100 units. Each week, or month, recount your bankroll, and divide by 100. That is your new unit size. If you exercise discipline and either cap profitably or tail the right people, most times, you'll find your new bankroll is higher than it was the last time. It's taken me five years to go from a $20/unit player to a $100/unit player.
Sometimes, encouraging gamblers to "exercise discipline" makes me laugh. My skepticism aside, for the sake of my own moral code, I'll indulge. If you want to make a lot of money, quick, entertain crime or games of chance.
Winning betting sports is a slow, grind with more subtle highs and lows than selling cocaine or robbing banks. Most do not have the discipline to win long term because of bad bankroll management leading to loss chasing. Go do a search on doubledimes MLB totals thread from last year. I tailed him and did very well. He had many nights in the red. But he had more in the black. If you had tailed his entire season, his NCAAB season thus far, my picks, Helluvaguy and JayRow, you'd be up nearly 100 units right now. So, if you bet 100 a game, you should be up 10,000 dollars of cash money. Go ask an investment broker if they could offer such ROI and you'll get laughed out of the bank.
Ok, that's it from me. I will reduce the volume of posts I pick and mainly focus on team totals and value plays. 0-2 picks per day. I'll still end up with 50 units by the time the cup is hoisted. I would also suggest you do your own research and implement your own models and juxtapose that intel with winning SBR cappers to solidify which plays you think are your most apt.
New pick time: All picks will be posted here by 2PM EST due to school. Now would be an ironic time to fade or pass because I'm about to go on a heater.
BOLComment -
I'm way up on sides, just not the past two days. But for a while, I'll focus on posting TT's because I agree, my model, currently, does seem to work better for totals, specifically team totals. I'm 12-3 on my last NBA first half TT's, I might have to start a thread.Originally posted by DU46Comment -
One other thing about the bankroll management because some one DM'd me. When recalculating your bankroll each month, assuming you're a winning player, you MUST take a percentage (I take 10%) and put it right in the bank. If you're just winning to up your unit size, what really is the point, unless you have a finite goal of some sort. Also, recalculations of unit sizes can be done at your discretion. Some of my peers do it at the start of the MLB season, the NFL season and the NBA season. I prefer to do it more often so I can get money out of books and into my bank account which has some interest, albeit not much. Just my thoughts. One common mistake I find amateurs making is they go on a heater, then cash out everything and blow it on god knows what. This is where the opportunity of sports investing ends and the degeneration of gambling begins. They save whatever the started with and this time, they don't go on a heater and end up bust.
I go to Vegas quite a bit but I have very good friends there. I've heard stories. I've seen my hipster university friends get in the hole for a couple of grand and had their parents bail them out, but if even half the stories I've heard about people owing the wrong people money in Vegas are true. I'll stop there.
Off to school. I guarantee a winner today or I won't talk about hot Asian girls for a week.Comment -
Only two plays today.
(YTD, +21.14u)
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals u5.5 (-121) 1.21u to win 1u
Winnipeg Jets ML (-102) 1.02u to win 1uComment -
I'm pretty sure that total opened at 5 last night, so it looks like they had to move it to 5.5 based off early betting. I like u5.5 at -121. I think the books might be taking the money of all those early bettors.Comment -
Slow and steady wins the race. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on bankroll management. I've been trying to rectify my methods.Comment -
Does your model like any team totals tonight?
22-8, +14 units on them in your other thread, hopefully you'll consider bring that thread back.Comment -
Hey Flea, I know you said you would only be posting your best plays. Would the Winnipeg M/L still be a play at it's current -145? I missed the better line. Thanks and G/L tonight!
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Well I'm holding myself to two plays or less a night posted here. Not official picks, but I do like the Flames ML and Winnipeg TT o2.5. And I'd hesitate to question my system due to two iffy nights. I'm up 20+ units in less than a month. I can't win every night. I'm playing almost every game tonight and expect to profit but I'm just posting what I consider are the top plays. My TT thread was on a heater that can't be sustained. This thread will experience more heaters and more coolers. That's the game. I make about 10-15 bets a night, some for half a unit, some for a full unit. Many are my own, the rest I tail from winning cappers. If you like the TT's, just tail those, I'll try to get one out a day. I wanted to play Winnipeg o2.5 but 5Dimes didn't get a line out in time. Not an official pick but I like that play a lot.Originally posted by DU46Comment -
I wouldn't play the -145 myself. I think there's more value in the Flames at -120 or Calgary TT o2.5 (the Sharks are tired af) at -125 or the Jets TT o2.5 @ -135. -145 vs the Habs, even without Price is getting too chalky. The -½ could be a play at +125...Originally posted by azsportswinHey Flea, I know you said you would only be posting your best plays. Would the Winnipeg M/L still be a play at it's current -145? I missed the better line. Thanks and G/L tonight!Comment -
No worries. No capper can win every night. I've had winning years that had consecutive losing months in them. I'm not capping short term, I hope to win 4/7 days a week and 20/30 days a month. Anything more than that is unsustainable. People blow their rolls on a couple of games and that's not my style. I like making and winning a lot of small plays, consistently, than going for some big win. What's the point? I don't know anyone who put a few dimes on one game and then quit betting sports. This is income supplement to me. Without bankroll management and discipline, you end up bust and owing people money. I tell my friends who want to bet half their savings account on one game to go see a therapist because that mentality is inanity.
I might get down to 10 units for all I know, I'm still up 21 units. I know I'll be up more than that at the end of the season, no matter how the graph looks when the dust settles.
Originally posted by thekoreanmangComment -
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GL bro I'm on the same side for the jets, Montoya in was icing on the cake.
Don't really play totals much but kinda loving the under in the FLA/NYI game +120 under 5 I'm onComment -
I'll go w/the Calgary TT......your TT plays are straight $$!! Thanks!Originally posted by Flea HotelComment -
Jets should win. Then again, Chicago shouldn't have needed OT last night. Every night has at least one odd-ball game. Next thing will be the Avs go on a 13 game winning streak lol.Originally posted by GzaTheGeniusComment -
I guarantee they have at least 2 after 2.Originally posted by azsportswinComment -
Definitely not questioning your system, just seemed like it was having the most success with team totals. If that was more pure coincidence and over time your model will churn out ~60% winners on a variety of hockey wagers (game totals, sides, TTs, etc.) then great, looking forward to it.Originally posted by Flea Hotel
How do you decipher what to post and not post, I assume your model has a probability indicator built in and you're posting those games with the highest probabilities?Comment -
Exactly, I was only posting plays that offset the lines implied probability by 12.5% or more before. I raised it to 15% when I started this thread. Had two nights were my model was wrong. I'm always tweaking my model and sticking with it until I have a reason not to. Being up 21+ units in 28 days is not a reason to abandon anything. I started posting more plays because of many DM's asking me to. I'd rather just post one or two but all of the plays I've posted were in my opinion, good plays. The NHL is hard to cap and hard to win in. If I were up 5 units on the month I'd be content. 7.5 is my goal. 21 is... not sustainable.
I will see how the next few days go and adapt accordingly. I'm not a percentage guy, I'm an ROI guy and I'm around 10 for the month. My effective winning percentage is nearly 57% with an AOP of +101. I don't expect to maintain that, I'm just trucking along. I could have gone 0-10 on the next 10 TT's. It's sports, if your ROI is over 0.1, you're a winner in my book. Obviously we strive for higher but for every better whose in the black, even if just, there's probably 100 who are in the red. Or dead.Originally posted by DU46Comment -
Jets o2.5 getting juiced... -150 in some spots. Would you take the Jets to win in 60 at +115?Comment -
I don't think almost even money for the in 60 is a good play. NYI ML at -134 is better IMO. I try to get my stuff out by noon EST, 1 at the latest to protect against the sharps. They screwed me today on that Jets TT o2.5 because they didn't release a line on it until after that. They had TT's for every other game except that one. I got it at -135. It's not like there was a late chance Price was playing... annoying.Comment -
One would think that if you were posting anything over 12.5% or now 15%, I'd post any that qualify, which it sounds like you're doing and not just cherry picking which ones that qualify to post.Comment -
Well the last two nights I had a lot of strong plays, they just shit the bed. When the Sabres beat the Flyers by 3 and the Blues play crappy, no model can predict that. I've bumped up plays I'm posting to 20% now. For example, I have NYI scoring 3 or more 64% of the time, the line is -125 (or 55.6%), so I'll play it myself for .25 a unit or maybe half but I won't post it.
Originally posted by DU46Comment -
Cool, and please don't interpret my questions as negative b/c that's certainly not the case at all, more just curious than anything.Comment -
No no, not at all. Just trying to be concise. I always think my profs are angry with me because their emails are so concise and usually abrupt.
How many hot Asian girls have we all broken up with or been broken up by due to the lack of tone of email and texting? Originally posted by DU46Comment -
HAAAA, I'll take your word for it!Comment -
Are they playing the all star game in Winnipeg tonight? They're on pace for 16 goals scored...lolComment
