Yup. I do my calculations BEFORE I see the lines. I had the Pens at -140 and the Flyers at -125. I had the Ducks at -180 and the Blues at -155, so they cleared. I would prob lay -200 on the Ducks getting 3 tonight personally but my bankroll, risk management and other factors exclude me from endorsing heavily juiced plays unless I really, really believe in them. I'm pretty sure SBR's other good cappers do the same, they don't post a pick unless they think it's well outside their margin of error. Like I said, I typically have money on 10+ games a night, but only the plays I personally put 2 units on get posted here. If it's a two unit play for me, it's a 1 unit play here, more or less.
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Thank you sirComment -
Nice call on the flyers, o3.5
If you didn't post the lean I wouldn't even looked at it, thanks for sharing the wealth, FleaComment -
Ducks cashed with not even half the game overComment -
Nice win on the ducks, now just need the blues to not score.Comment -
well, Pitt crapped the bed.... 1 goal!? SMH. Inspired: I played Ducks TT / ML. Blues to sink and Kings to fly. With some Wild/M Over on the side, thank you Flea as said It's great to watch games with Score city in mind carless of a winner. - ReedComment -
nice
High Five FleaComment -
The Pens stunk, I was going to play them for .25 a unit but forgot, thank god. My model went 2-0 tonight but never came closing to having the Wild. Would have loved to have nailed that one. I also love the Habs getting drilled after yesterday. The Habs are so messed up, I'm a season ticket holder and go to almost all the games and some nights they really look good and other nights they look like crap. I try not be biased at all about teams but the Habs, they test my resolve. Anyone who had Minny TT, ML or PL, props and FU Habs.Comment -
I tailed you on the GSW over as well and cashed, this week I will not play any NFL games, I learned my lesson already, can't remember last time I won in NFL
Gonna spend it traveling with my girl, for the action I wagered 400 betpoints on the Texans ML, and if it cashes I promised I'd go pro trough the donation, let us seeComment -
The NFL games are so good this weekend, I don't even want to bet them. The only bet I have is the over in the GB/DAL game. I kind of like KC and the points, no clue in the Seattle game and too many points in the Patriots game, though I say that every week and they always cover. My girlfriend is going to NYC with her mom in about five minutes so I'm going to try to catch up on school and prob try to pick a few more NHL winners.
NBA was crazy last night. Denver and SAS going off!Comment -
Nice call Flea! I don't bet the NBA but it sounds like your model does pretty well with it, I know you mentioned you might start a thread, still thinking about doing so?
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Cool...thanks for all of your efforts, they are greatly appreciated.Comment -
No worries, the NBA TT is almost the same, it's just tedious to find all the variables. Until I get it going officially, I'll post any solid plays here, and people can tail if they want, like I did with the GS play last night. I also had the Spurs. Didn't have Denver though, jeez.Comment -
It's my one month anniversary picking winners on this site. I have two great picks for tonight. One has a lot of juice but if you track all my picks on plays at -145 or more, I don't think I've lost a single one. Pass on it if it's too much chalk but my models have NYR getting 3 or more goals 81% of the time in this contest. If it were just a bit cheaper, I'd make it a 2 unit play. The Jets play is also chalky but I have them beating Arizona 4-1.
(YTD, +20.91u)
New York Rangers OVER 2.5 (-165) 1.65u to win 1u
Winnipeg Jets OVER 2.5 (-145) 1.45u to win 1uComment -
Nice!
BookMaker has -150 and -135, respectively.Comment -
My off the record plays. In other words, I am playing these but they are not official picks. Play at your own risk.
Winnipeg Jets 1st 60 min +118
Arizona UNDER 2.5 -120
Toronto vs NYR OVER 5.5 -115Comment -
I'm pretty anti NBA betting, I feel vegas has their claws insanely accurate to the lines ... but I really like the TT idea. I played your GS TT last night (THANKS) and it felt too easy lol, Looking forward to more TT NBA. thanks Flea. -ReedComment -
Nice picks, who is the girl in your avatar?Comment -
It certainly seems like it at times, then you get Denver scoring 140. Where it seems really fishy is those lower tier D1 NCAAB games I tail from some of the guys in the NCAAB thread. I've never seen so many sketchy ref calls or foul shooting/outside shooting in my life in the last couple of minutes... I can't even watch them anymore, I just place the bet and check my balance later. The good thing about the TT's in NBA is I know I can be around 60% and the totals aren't juiced like NHL because they're not fixed. I don't have a TT for tonight but I do like the Celtics +2.5 and the Bucks -7 for small plays, personally.Comment -
Just a heads up. If you have accounts with 5Dimes and Pinnacle, double check to make sure that Pinnacle doesn't have a cheaper price, because they occasionally do. For Americans, I'd do the same with Betonline. All three offer TT's at the 2.5 (and occasionally 3.5 at plus money.)
It seems like for people from the UK, paddypower is the only site that has NHL TT's that accepts UK players. If anyone knows differently, that would be good to know. Also, make sure that whatever book you're using includes OT in their TT's. For example, 888 has o3 at -109 and o3.5 at +220 but that's in regulation time only, so if the Rangers win 4-3 in OT, your bet loses. You'd push on the o3. I'm sure most know this but just in case.
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Ok, my NBA totals thread is back in action. Mainly team totals but I will have some game totals and first half totals, depending on the data. Enjoy.Comment
