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Will be back to strictly Team Totals since I was 3-0 on them last night personally and my system seems to work best with them. I will continue to play sides on my own but until I get the kinks worked out, strictly Team Totals, where I was almost 73% (see Team Totals thread in post 1 of this thread). The good thing about TT's is you don't have to worry about ridiculous games like last night in Winnipeg and Washington. Posts will be up by 2PM EST.
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Money won on team totals spends the same as money won on sides. Your model has found an edge with team totals, looking forward to today's plays.Comment -
I got my Wash TT, Cal TT and WPG TT last night, but lost my Wash Total, WPG ML. I took NYI and they sucked. I went 5-1 on NBA team totals too. I'm still in shock from that Habs game.Comment -
Maybe one idea for you is to post every play you're making and then the unit size, whether it is 1 unit, 1/2 unit, etc., and people can decide what to play from that list. Totally up to you but maybe something to consider.Comment -
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I don't disagree, I was merely suggesting as it seems Flea is being asked by multiple people via DMs for all of his plays. Maybe I'm wrong and he isn't, just seems like he is trying to appeal to the masses and that is one way of doing it. For me personally, his TT are killing it and those are the only things I want to play, I prefer lower volume.Comment -
I think the main reason he does not do that is that many people here choose to ignore bankroll mgmt and bet way over their heads..
However, I do think we are adults here, and can chose whether to tail or not, anyway it's his choice, the TT's are doing great, just post the TT's...
Flea, what I don't think it helps your case (and I don't mean that in an offensive way, since you are up almost 20 units in posted plays and helped me a lot), is that every time a losing streak happens, you insist to mention you did great on the plays that weren't posted (this is not the first time), I just think that if you choose not to post the plays for whatever reason, don't even mention that they were played, it doesn't matter anymore, then again, it's your thread, do as you like
Again, only my opinion, either post everything and let it roll, or keep posting low volume and no need to justify the losses with not-posted plays (hope this doesn't sound offensive, it's not meant to be). People know here I speak my mind most of the times even for capers I have respect for, but at any moment I will never shout anyone, just think about what I said, because this is probably the third time you do that and I don't think it's something the followers appreciate, there might be many PM's of people being suckers, but this above is the true
BOL man, I'll keep tailing whatever you decide to post, thanksComment -
Just on a side cheering note, the TT's plays were averaging .5 unit/day over a month period, which is pretty good, this might be it... The angle we were all looking for in NHL, $100 player would be $1500 up, with just 30 plays...
Kind of reminds me of the reliever plays DD was posting during MLB season, they alone went 100 units or so in a 3 or 4 months period, really don't know the reason of picking a ton of stuff, game totals, sides, if there's a winning system going on, with the TT's there wasn't a major losing streak, maybe 2 days and them right back up, this might be one the best stuff we are going to see this year on SBR
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This is what I have been trying to say but not with as much clarity as you have done. Kudos sir!Just on a side cheering note, the TT's plays were averaging .5 unit/day over a month period, which is pretty good, this might be it... The angle we were all looking for in NHL, $100 player would be $1500 up, with just 30 plays...
Kind of reminds me of the reliever plays DD was posting during MLB season, they alone went 100 units or so in a 3 or 4 months period, really don't know the reason of picking a ton of stuff, game totals, sides, if there's a winning system going on, with the TT's there wasn't a major losing streak, maybe 2 days and them right back up, this might be one the best stuff we are going to see this year on SBR
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Woah.. Lots of interesting stuff. First, to knicksrulez, the reason I mention the winning plays I didn't post isn't for some dickish reason, it's because I'm torn between posting either 1) the plays I bet on in my real life and 2) the plays I feel are the best of the plays I bet in real life. It's really, really frustrating waking up, checking your sportsbook and seeing your balance way up, and then see the picks you posted didn't window. I will keep it to myself in the future. I personally haven't had a losing day in 2017. This isn't strictly due to me, I had a few losing NHL/NBA days but was saved by Helluvaguy, Doubledime and some other people I tail.
I will post only NHL Team Totals until I get back to 25 units. At that point I will reevaluate the way I present my system. Most people seem to be fans of the NHL TT's. The unit size thing is controversial. I think I will put the units down the way I personally play them. There are plays that I put 2 units on, and some that I put half a unit on. All half unit plays won't make the cut of what I post here (I played 23 games last night, from NHL, NBA and NCAAB, from bet sizes ranging from 0.2 units to 2 units). The one and two unit plays will be posted. Anyone tailing can decide if they want to bet two units or not, but that is under the assumption that they are following a similar bankroll strategy as I. For example, if your total bank roll is 2000, your unit size is 20 a pick, so a two unit play is 40. Not 60. 40. Other's use different bankroll systems as far as measurement, some divide by 50 instead of 100, which is more aggressive and possibly more profitable but also more prone to short term variance.
So, in conclusion.
1. I am only posting NHL Team Totals until I get back to 25units.
2. Most plays will be 1 unit plays. Ones with extreme confidence (25%+ model vs IP of line) will be posted as two unit plays but it's to the discretion of whomever tails whether to bet two units or not. I can only attempt to post picks that have a higher chance of winning than losing. I certainly can't teach prudent bankroll management, though it is imperative to winning long term. Google has a plethora of good articles about bankroll management pertaining to betting sports. It's very similar to poker.
3. I will NOT post about any other plays I personally played but didn't post, because that could be misconstrued. In fairness, I did say yesterday, after my self-imposed cut-off time that Winnipeg and Calgary were solid TT plays. They both cashed. See post 95, where I basically picked the Calgary o2.5 and post 99.
4. All posts will be in by 2PM EST. If I have very strong leads after that, I'm not mentioning it to keep statistical accuracy in my results. Moreover, I'd rather not be asked my opinion on other plays as I have an opinion on EVERY game but for the sake of time and pragmatism, I will only be posting one or two NHL TT's until I reach 25 units. At that time, I will reevaluate.
BOL to all!Last edited by Flea Hotel; 01-12-17, 11:21 AM.Comment -
That's good stuff boss, and personally I wasn't thinking you were being dickish bragging about winners not posted, I was actually thinking you were trying to justify yourself to the followers, more like a: "Hey guys, we lost again, but I'm a good capper, I picked such and such"
I was just thinking to myself, we know that you are a good capper, you are 20 units in a month, man, no need to justify, have some confidence, I don't wanna make another huge write-up, just saying, that's probably the best approach, the TT's system is the best system going on, like I said, comparable to DD's reliever plays on bases
Another suggestion, and that's entirely up to you as well, the games only start at usually 7PM, so if that means having more info, refs, injuries and such, you might consider postpone the cutoff time a little bitComment -
Once you get to 25 units again, why the need to reevaluate? It almost seems like you're mad that the team totals are winning and you're trying to prove that sides and game totals will hit with your model. Again, not being a jerk, but to put in your terms, the team totals are "cash money" so for purely selfish reasons, I hope those get posted daily if there is a play(s) to be made on them.
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It wasn't to show I'm a good capper, it was to show that the prior day's complaints about posting volume backfired in a way because I was all over that WPG and CGY TT but I didn't want to add them because some people posted or DM'd me about posting too many plays. It really bummed me out because I didn't get a chance to bet on those two plays until after my cut off time but I did suggest them.
That being said, I agree knickz, I will change my cutoff time to 5PM EST for your aforementioned reasons (though I can get the ref info early and I like to beat the sharps so most of my picks will be in by 2PM EST, but I want to have the buffer zone of the extra three hours in case line movement is working for me instead of against me, which is rare, or if I'm simply delayed by school or, personal reasons) and I may list "near-misses" like DD, though I'm still hesitant about that.
Ok, enough talk, more rock. Let me go find us a winner or two. It's really all about cash money and something else I can't talk about for a week.
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Because I'm winning with sides, just not the ones I've posted the past 3 days. I've been betting on sports for 3000+ days, so 3 days isn't really enough of a cooler to mean anything to me. With respect, it's my system and I'll post what I want to. Everyone is losing it and I'm still up almost 20 units in under a month. Come on. Almost half those units came from in regs, dogs and pucklines.
Once you get to 25 units again, why the need to reevaluate? It almost seems like you're mad that the team totals are winning and you're trying to prove that sides and game totals will hit with your model. Again, not being a jerk, but to put in your terms, the team totals are "cash money" so for purely selfish reasons, I hope those get posted daily if there is a play(s) to be made on them.
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I still reminisce on the Wild RPL in Montreal. It was a thing of beauty. Congrats on that one again, man. Just stay true to yourself. Bet what you want to bet. Come on here and type what you want to type. Tell others as much or as little as you wish. You are good at this, Flea. Don't get inside of your head. It's a bad neighborhood.Comment -
Correct, it is your system, your thread, post what you want. Most in this thread just hope you continue to post the team totals, because those have been great the last month.Comment -
Today's action.
(YTD, +18.91u)
Anaheim Ducks OVER 2.5 (-155) 1.55u to win 1u
St. Louis Blues UNDER 2.5 (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
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In case anyone wants to know, close to making the cut were the Flyers o2.5 (-150) and the Pens o2.5 (-160). Just a bit too much juice on them to clear my models. BOL.Comment -
Good luck today. Hopefully the return to TTs only will help.
Any thought to releasing your NBA? Seems to be doing well.Comment -
flea i watched the caps-penguins game last nite you know ovechkin is only 31 yrs, old and has 544 goals just incredibleComment -
What is the average juice (give or take) on these TT? I'm new to this thread.
I'm primarily a football/ BBall bettor so come from a -110 world. The juice on these TT seems so high! -155 and -135? Other posted leans at -150 and -160. That's an incredibly high amount of juice! At least to someone like me who is averse to paying anything greater than -115 in other sports. But perhaps this is just the norm in the NHL? You seem to be doing very well on these however I would like to know the average vig on these TT bets you wager on so that I can calculate the break even point and profitability point on theseComment -
Sometimes is at +money, but it can go all the way to -160, average I think is -120/-130, I've been following since the beginning and didn't realized how juiced they were since they were hitting at 70%+Comment -
yeah, like knickz said, prob avg -125 to -130 ish. most people who claim near 60% are well over that. what was crazy is I was 50% for a while with odds pushing +150 in the other thread. i don't like playing the heavily juiced plays unless they clear my model's IP by 25%. i prefer a -115 or -120 but I won't stay away from -160 if it's 75% to cash.Comment
