Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[mitch51]

The games that popped out are:

WAS
DET
CHI
VAN

After checking Calmeat's chart/top consensus/categories

VAN -135 1u

If DET becomes a dog again, I would bet 1u on that game.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

VAN REG 4% - highest win % and highest consensus
DET REG 2% - highest average lead

With short cards (4 or less) I usually like a parlay. i've gone 2% on DET, VAN, CHI, to win about 7%.

GL peeps!

[calmeat]

With Nsh goalie Mazanec in net DET drops to 62% game win Perc.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Is it unusual to lose 2 in 3 days? With me not paying attention to exactly who you have been betting on, I've not kept track of how you have got on with the bets. I know Calmeat said that he was up, so I'm guessing it's gone well. Kings losing and Detroit/Vancouver last night. Probably down about 12% over the last 3 days.

I guess I just wondered how the results usually go, and if you tend to go on runs of results that are positive. With us identifying the favourite(s) each night, the odds are usually unfavourable. Generally, it's a 4% bet to win 2%, so you generally need 2 wins for every 1 loss? Or am I just generalising too much from a 3 day span?

[jnsbanman]

Three days is not enough... Generally around Christmas/New Years things are a little strange. For the last half of the month of December my ROI is about 37% (Not including tonite). Which equates for being up a little over $300. Every system has it losses. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

November was similar. Win % was 69.12% for the month of November.

December we are at 66.67% with the potential of that going to just over 67% tonite.

[jnsbanman]

Numbers not quite locked up yet but so far has wagers on Boston -0.5 regulation 5% to win 4% (roughly. For High Avg Lead) and Phx 1.7% to win 1%(For High odds between -140 and -177)

Still pending is High Win% and High Consensus. Currently STL and BOS are tied but that will probably change.

[yoitsflash]

good luck

[Rumplebeanskin]

I must be missing something. Apologies for my stupidity

If you are saying the average for November and December was around 66%, or 2/3 wins, I'm not seeing how we turn a profit? Or is it just that the odds over the last few days have been pretty unfavourable? It just seems at the moment what I'm betting per game equates to the total I'd win for 2 games combined. Am I doing something wrong?

Betting say, 4% to win 2%, I'll need to win 75% of my bets to make a profit, 66% to break even. I must be missing something, I apologise

[calmeat]

12/31/13
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 35-32 +$59.50
Silver($5.00) = 61-68 -$73.75
Bronze($2.50) = 56-45 +$3.84

Game Win %
ML= 310-221 58.38%
ML(Regulation)= 241-69 77.74%
O/U= 70-59 54.26%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 60-55 52.17%
55-59%= 79-56 58.52%
60-64= 73-55 57.03%
65-69%= 58-43 57.43%
70+%= 42-10 80.77%

Consensus 156-100 60.94%
STL
BOS
MTL
WPG
ANA
PHX

[Rumplebeanskin]

I went 4% on BOS reg to win 2.5% and 5% on STL reg to win 6%.

Had a small side bet of 2% on STL ML, WIN ML, BOS reg, PHX reg to win about 28%. Long shot. I have no discipline

[calmeat]

Locked up stl ml and Bos reg also going to do a small parlay with them.

Gl!

[mitch51]

Late posting, we took MTL and got beat in OT and Mitch air bet ANA.

He's p'd he didn't put on the game.


Better luck next year.

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

So won both bets on STL but lost the BOS reg game. I dont know how boston can give up a 3-1 lead. Stupid penalties.... Lets get em next year.

Happy new year everyone

[Rumplebeanskin]

Happy New Year! What a mess from Boston, glad I didn't stay up and watch that one lol Montreal trying to match them for worst effort of the night tho!

I guess if I hadn't put that 4 team parlay on, I would have made 30p last night, which is about 1% of my BR. So I'll just go back to not asking questions, as that has answered my own

[calmeat]

No bets for me today
Consensus
VAN

[calmeat]

*BOS no play goalie debut
1/2/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 35-32 +$59.50
Silver($5.00) = 61-70 -$85.50
Bronze($2.50) = 58-45 +$8.84

Game Win %
ML= 316-228 58.09%
ML(Regulation)= 245-71 77.53%
O/U= 74-60 55.22%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 60-58 50.85%
55-59%= 83-58 58.87%
60-64= 74-56 56.92%
65-69%= 59-44 57.28%
70+%= 42-10 80.77%

Consensus 160-103 60.84%
CHI
OTT
MIN
STL
DAL
PHX
SJS

[calmeat]

My plays
TGW = Top Game Win %
TCGW = Top Consensus Game Win %
AVL = Highest Avg Lead

TGW - CHI(-170) (A) $3.42
TCGW - CHI (-170) (A) $3.42
AVL - CHI regulation (-110) (B) $8.82

[Rumplebeanskin]

Just so you're all aware, I've put a little but more cash on CHI than usual because they satisfy so many criteria. 70%, highest win, highest win consensus, biggest lead.

As always, because I've put a bit more money on, fade me immediately

[calmeat]

haha Rumple yeah i know what you mean as soon as i change the unit size we get a bunch of losses thinking of dropping back to my 2.50 bets.

[mitch51]

Line too high on CHI, like STL Blues...no bet though.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

As a dawg I like CLB...

Ali

[Rumplebeanskin]

Every time, without fail.

[calmeat]

Every time, without fail.

uhhhhh i know i actually really liked that one. go Fn figure

[Rumplebeanskin]

Still not sure how you boys make any money I feel like my BR will just slowly ebb away, but hopefully it will give me enough entertainment until the end of the season

[calmeat]

Still not sure how you boys make any money I feel like my BR will just slowly ebb away, but hopefully it will give me enough entertainment until the end of the season

Yeah i can see it doesnt look like we are making money and right now we are not. We were making money until this real bad spot right now. Seems we cant really get a winner. This is where you have to stay disciplined. If you dont then you will end up losing it all. Its much easier to stay disciplined when you are winning but when you lose and then lose another its easy to just keep chasing that loss. Its the ebb and flow of pro sports and it will turn around. I am still up on the season so im still moving forward.

[calmeat]

1/3/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 36-33 +$59.50
Silver($5.00) = 63-72 -$82.25
Bronze($2.50) = 58-45 +$1.96

Game Win %
ML= 319-233 57.79%
ML(Regulation)= 247-71 77.67%
O/U= 74-60 55.22%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 60-61 49.59%
55-59%= 85-59 59.03%
60-64= 74-56 56.92%
65-69%= 59-44 57.28%
70+%= 42-11 79.25%

Consensus 162-106 60.45%
CHI
PIT
ANA

[mitch51]

Not sure there is a bet today in the categories/guidelines, a couple of the lines are high. I'm looking possibly at the under in Calg and as a dawg NJ.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Yeah i can see it doesnt look like we are making money and right now we are not. We were making money until this real bad spot right now. Seems we cant really get a winner. This is where you have to stay disciplined. If you dont then you will end up losing it all. Its much easier to stay disciplined when you are winning but when you lose and then lose another its easy to just keep chasing that loss. Its the ebb and flow of pro sports and it will turn around. I am still up on the season so im still moving forward.

Good advice, I just got going at a funny time I guess. I'll stick with it

Short slate of games again, so I'll go PIT ML, CHI ML, ANA REG, 3 team parlay

[calmeat]

really hoping it hits for you rumple. I actually held off today i really wanted to bet both PIT and CHI i felt good about them just like i felt good about my last 3 bets so i laid off. DEF need ANA to hit tonight.

[calmeat]

Good advice, I just got going at a funny time I guess. I'll stick with it

Short slate of games again, so I'll go PIT ML, CHI ML, ANA REG, 3 team parlay

Nice hit Rumple!

[mitch51]

Rumple


Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

shit you could have done a 4 teamer.. Card swept!

[Rumplebeanskin]

I was tempted, but there's a few teams that still scare me from various stages of the season. Don't like betting against Ottawa in Ottawa, they burned me earlier in the year. Calgary at home burned me when they took STL to OT before xmas, they scored with about 5 seconds left in that game then won in a shootout. I wanted Tampa, just bottled it

I also thought about all 3 games in regulation, but didn't want to get greedy. A win is a win, for once lol

[Yoinkerz]

Ty for plays. Last night was good. I shoulda dropped more ~~ lookin for good day today. Big card.
Waiting on calmeat for plays tonight

[calmeat]

Consensus
BOS
CAR
NSH
NJD
PHX
STL
MIN
DET
LAK
MTL