Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[calmeat]

Hi Mitch51, i'm reading Pitt is currently banged up and without certain players. Do you consider this info as well when making decisions on the picks?

Only Malkin and dupios are out but they got both defenders back

[Rumplebeanskin]

Alright finally done that.
Top Game win% - CHI
Top Game Consensus Win% = CHI
Highest Avg Lead = CHI (tied with Pit but higher game wint%)

So CHI is my B bet in my chases for all the cats.

GL all!

So 5% of the BR on CHI? Or 3% REG 2% ML?

[mitch51]

As much as I like the games that popped out at me and with checking
Calmeat's chart/consensus and the 5 categories. Chi line is too high and
I'm walking away today with no bet.
Mitch and I feel the game doesn't fall into our perimeters.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

So 5% of the BR on CHI? Or 3% REG 2% ML?

So this was my 2nd bet of 3game chase so it would end up being more. Depends on what you are gonna do if you are only gonna play my 3 plays then i would do say 2% of BR for each bet totaling 6%. If all 3 win then next night i would do the same. Otherwise i would chase the bets. If you want i can post my actual plays with money attached. Let me know. CHI looking good right now. I also played this one with my local for 50 i think this would be the most i was ever up on the local book

[jnsbanman]

Just realized I forgot to post my plays... I had All "B" bets today CHI was the main play (Win %, Cons, High Avg Lead) and BOS for High Odds. Made close to 10% tonite.

[calmeat]

and just to let you know ill be doing family things this weekend and traveling back home on sunday (2 hour drive from inlaws) so ill do my best to get the plays out. I may not have the time to post my plays but just know I am only playing
Top game win%
Top consensus game win%
Highest Avg Lead (for regulation)
Top 70% game (if there is one)

So Jason usually posts his plays and those teams will 99.9% of the time be the same as mine he just plays more categories then i do.

It also looks like i can finally up my Units. (im playing 2.5% of BR is a unit now)
Old unit size = 2.50
new unit size = 3.42

And just for record keeping on my end as well. with 2.50 a unit im +39.88u, I am going to keep track now with the new unit size until the next unit change.

[Rumplebeanskin]

So this was my 2nd bet of 3game chase so it would end up being more. Depends on what you are gonna do if you are only gonna play my 3 plays then i would do say 2% of BR for each bet totaling 6%. If all 3 win then next night i would do the same. Otherwise i would chase the bets. If you want i can post my actual plays with money attached.

That would be really useful yeah, for a short while at least until I see what it is you're doing. I'm not sure what the chase is that you're doing, so would be good to see how you're managing that.

Last night I put down 2% BR on CHI REG, and 4% on CHI ML. Both came off for a rough gain of 3%.

First night of the "new regime", trying to be disciplined! Chased a 3 team parlay for 4% lol Came off tho, BOS, PIT, DAL, but that isn't the point If it hadn't come off, i would have won 2/3 bets last night and lost 1% of my BR. Instead, I gained 13% of my BR, so I guess I got lucky.

MUST GAIN MORE PATIENCE!!!

[jnsbanman]

Hey guys what I got for today is

LAK 4% (win %, 70%+, top consensus, high avg lead)
LAK -0.5 in reg 1% (high avg lead)
ANA 1% (high odds between -140 and -199)

[mitch51]

This is what I have for games that pop out after crunching numbers; as always I'm waiting for Calmeat's chart/consensus/categories that would fall within our guidelines:

TB
BOS
CHI
ANA
LA

Be back later.

Ali & Mitch

Gr8 job to all of you yesterday.

[calmeat]

doing family things going to rerun system in 30-45 minutes with the latest updates then ill post.

[mitch51]

doing family things going to rerun system in 30-45 minutes with the latest updates then ill post.

No problem, we have family coming in today. Also trying to get things ready before they do.

Ali

[calmeat]

Alright here we go (little upset i was hoping for LAK to be Consensus but oh well)
Consensus
DET
TBL
BOS
NJD
ANA

[calmeat]

So today my plays
Top Game Win% = LAK $3.42(1u)
Top Consensus Game win% = ANA $3.42 (1u)
Highest Avg Lead = LAK $3.42 (1u)

[mitch51]

Kings it is - line a bit high -165

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[jnsbanman]

Crap... I assumed LAK would be consensus... Throws off my bets. Now do I throw another 1% on Ana???

[mitch51]

Family back on the road, I've crunched my numbers. A couple of games the lines are too high and one team hasn't played for nine days.

MON
PIT
TB
CO
ANA

Just waiting for Calmeat now.

Be back later.

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

Just got home and rushing to get the plays out hopefully soon

[calmeat]

will update in a bit
AVG lead bet going to MTL

[calmeat]

Consensus
MTL
WSH
STL
TBL
TOR
COL
MIN

[calmeat]

So unfortunately MTL would have been the Top Con Game win% bet
I was able to get the MTL Regulation bet in for Highest Avg lead but nothing else.

VAN will be B bet for Top Win%

Sorry about that 2 hour drive turned into 3.5 hour drive on the PA Turnpike today

[mitch51]

One question Calmeat, what is Form %?

Thanks
Ali

[mitch51]

The games are not falling into our guidelines. I think no play today unless I do a dog:

ANA

GLTA


Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

I've had my 4% on VAN ML. I got lucky that I didn't get the picks until after Montreal had started or I'd have chucked some money on them, caught a break I guess as they got stuffed.

Won some nice cash on the NFL tonight, so put a cheeky extra 4% on Isles and Ducks 2 team parlay. Pays out 6/1. Crazy!

[calmeat]

Yeah u lucked out on the MTL game. I was in a rush and played it. I actually really dont like the AVG Lead unless its 7 or above but went with MTL and that sucked. Oh well hopefully VAN can pull it out.

[mitch51]

I've had my 4% on VAN ML. I got lucky that I didn't get the picks until after Montreal had started or I'd have chucked some money on them, caught a break I guess as they got stuffed.

Won some nice cash on the NFL tonight, so put a cheeky extra 4% on Isles and Ducks 2 team parlay. Pays out 6/1. Crazy!

Wow, someone else betting dogs too.

Go man go!

Ali & Mitch

[jnsbanman]

Hey guys.. Totally missed today. Was out and about. I missed MTL thankfully. And put it all on VAN so nice big win today. Also have some on SJS as well so far so good.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Ha, as if it was the Ducks that cost me and not the Isles!

Still, good day yesterday! 5 game parlay on the NFL made £3 into £11, in game live bet of Penguins in reg at 1-1 made £1 into £2, Canucks won and made £1 into £1.70, and so close to having that 2 team ANA/NYI bet come off!

Gives me a bit more bank roll to work with, so that's always good.

[jnsbanman]

Nice work rumple

[jnsbanman]

Well another short card... He is what I go so far

Van ML 2.68% to win 2%
Det ML 1% to win 1.03%
Det Regulation ML 1% to win 1.03%

And possibly Chi 1.4% to Win 1% if the odds stay over -140 (Looking for movement in our favor)

[calmeat]

Going to be running system at 2:30 should have picks around 3.

And always know Jason is going by my preliminary numbers so sometimes they do change.

[mitch51]

Going to be running system at 2:30 should have picks around 3.

And always know Jason is going by my preliminary numbers so sometimes they do change.

Calmeat uhhm is 2:30pm Eastern your time? Just double checking.
Also could you explain the Form %

Thanks

Ali

[calmeat]

mitch yeah EST.

Form Factor is Goals For and Goals against last 4 games. So if in the past 4 games a team has been blowing other teams away then their form factor will be high. A way to see if a team is hot or not.

[mitch51]

mitch yeah EST.

Form Factor is Goals For and Goals against last 4 games. So if in the past 4 games a team has been blowing other teams away then their form factor will be high. A way to see if a team is hot or not.

Thanks

Ali

[calmeat]

12/30/13
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 35-31 +$70
Silver($5.00) = 61-67 -$66.75
Bronze($2.50) = 56-45 +$3.84

Game Win %
ML= 309-218 58.63%
ML(Regulation)= 240-69 77.67%
O/U= 70-59 54.26%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 60-54 52.63%
55-59%= 78-56 58.21%
60-64= 73-54 57.48%
65-69%= 58-42 58%
70+%= 42-10 80.77%

Consensus 155-98 61.26%
DET
CHI
VAN

[calmeat]

My plays
TGW = Top Game Win %
TCGW = Top Consensus Game Win %
AVL = Highest Avg Lead

TGW - VAN (-140) (A) $3.42
TCGW - VAN (-140) (A) $3.42
AVL - DET (+155) (C) $7.87(risking)