Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[calmeat]

Got my NHL system up and running again. Hope it turns out ok.
Plays are graded as Gold Silver Bronze plays

Gold = 1u
Silver= .5u
Bronze= .25u

[calmeat]

Here was todays plays

[calmeat]

Short Card
Gold= OTT
Silver= MTL

[calmeat]

damn forgot to post

[calmeat]

So PIT game and CHI has some errors so be carefull with them eventhough i like both of them. And i hate to have PHX a gold since they are playing my fly guys but oh well. GL

[calmeat]

record so far
Gold $10
Silver $5
Bronze $2.50

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	7	3	70.00%	$50	ML	13	8	61.90%
Silver	0	3	0.00%	-$19.5	O/U	5	6	45.45%
Bronze	4	1	80.00%	$7.5	REG	17	3	85.00%

[USAF K9]

I like the flyers tonight u need to read hucks thread about b2b and u will feel better bout ur fly guys tonight !

[calmeat]

Yeah i read that thread. The system im running takes all that into account including travel and simulates the game based on each players stats. its a monster of a spreadsheet.

[USAF K9]

care to share it with me lol

[USAF K9]

I think im just gonna go with the over 5.5 in the flyers game

[calmeat]

ha its a little tough to share. So each player has stats for the last 82 games they have played, the most recent games are weighted higher then say games from last year. each night i strip the stats from each game report and enter them into my spreadsheet. Other factors are say b2b and travel through timezones. This system was given to me by someone who just didnt have the time to do it anymore since he is moving on with other projects. If you really want more info i can always have him chime in to expand on it.

[calmeat]

Todays Card. Lots of gold on there today

[calmeat]

nothing real good today

[calmeat]

8-1 yesterday so that was def a good sat.
Record updated
Gold $10
Silver $5
Bronze $2.50

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	12	3	80.00%	$103.5	ML	26	10	72.22%
Silver	2	4	33.33%	-$14.5	O/U	10	9	52.63%
Bronze	6	1	85.71%	$12.5	REG	30	5	85.71%

[calmeat]

Early looks 10/14/13

[calmeat]

updated with Goalies

[calmeat]

another Gold win!!

WSH MIN and the MIN Under all hit. too bad boston couldnt win for the sweep

[Alien Lanes]

another Gold win!!

WSH MIN and the MIN Under all hit. too bad boston couldnt win for the sweep

calmeat, your stats are fantastic.

Keep up the good work buddy! Looking forward to your picks tonight

I'm thinking Toronto ML, Penguins -1.5, and Avs ML

[calmeat]

So ran the system. Just waiting for Goalies and ill post.

@ Alien. Sheet is on MIN (dont like that pick) i lean TOR on that as well. Also PIT is high % and so is COL CHI NYI

So with the sheet. I mainly go by GAME WIN %. The Gold silver bronze picks are based on WIN% and value with the line. SO PIT Tonight is not a gold silver or bronze because of the high ML but the Game Win % is high so its kind of a at your own risk.

[calmeat]

GL Today. Not all goalies are confirmed but figured id get this out there now.

[rainman416]

Love the chart, already made my plays for the day, but will def be looking over the chart before hand next time. Good info

SJS at + money stood out to me as the play of the day.. Would be betting with the STL side if they were the ones at +money.. hard not to take the odds there on two undefeated teams.

[calmeat]

Thanks glad its helpful. Yeah i just stayed away from that game Im tracking the Game win% as well to see how those games turn up and here is what i got and you can see from 55%-65% records not great.

	W	L	%
50	2	0	100.00%
55	12	6	66.67%
60	5	4	55.56%
65	3	0	100.00%
70	8	1	88.89%

and record to date

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	13	3	81.25%	$113.5	ML	30	13	69.77%
Silver	2	5	28.57%	-$19.5	O/U	12	10	54.55%
Bronze	6	1	85.71%	$12.5	REG	37	5	88.10%

[potlimit]

Love the charts, great tool... keep em coming.

[calmeat]

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	15	4	78.95%	$124.5	ML	37	18	67.27%
Silver	4	6	40.00%	-$16.5	O/U	14	12	53.85%
Bronze	6	3	66.67%	$5.12	REG	46	8	85.19%

Game Win %

	W	L	%
50	2	0	100.00%
55	13	9	59.09%
60	7	4	63.64%
65	4	2	66.67%
70	11	1	91.67%

[racer43]

a couple questions for you, if you dont mind.... what do the arrows in the totals column signify? Also in the odds column, the odds posted, are they the odds the spread sheet comes up with? They differ from closing odds

[calmeat]

@racer43
Arrows are the play for the total. Straight down RED is a play on the under. UP green is the play Over and the yellow arrow are leans. As for the lines they are the lines when i run the system.

[calmeat]

Updated goalies

[racer43]

ok thanks, thats what I thought, but wasnt sure. I mainly bet totals on NHL so will be following along here...

[calmeat]

GL today !

[calmeat]

and with these #s for Gold and

	W	L	%
Gold	15	4	78.95%
Silver	4	7	36.36%
Bronze	6	3	66.67%

70% and above Game Win%

	W	L	%
50	2	0	100.00%
55	13	9	59.09%
60	7	4	63.64%
65	5	3	62.50%
70	11	1	91.67%

ill be playing SJS -.5

[calmeat]

Goin to a wedding so wont be updating Goalies. GL!

[calmeat]

Posting early got a concert today and tomorrow so goalies may not get updated.

[calmeat]

[btd]

Can u explain what the circles in the first column represent and also how can i tell which plays are gold, silver , and bronze ? Thanx

[imarkp]

Can u explain what the circles in the first column represent and also how can i tell which plays are gold, silver , and bronze ? Thanx

look at circles boxed, 1 gold 1 silver 3 bronze. not sure what moon shapes are.