Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

calmeat · 10-31-13, 01:58 PM

Tough one last night I figured it was gonna happen soon just glad it was bronze plays and not many games.

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	17	8	68.00%	$100.5	ML	85	51	62.50%
Silver	15	11	57.69%	$4.5	O/U	25	22	53.19%
Bronze	14	12	53.85%	$1.99	ML reg	72	14	83.72%

Game win %

	W	L	%
50	14	7	66.67%
55	22	17	56.41%
60	20	15	57.14%
65	14	9	60.87%
70	16	2	88.89%

calmeat · 11-01-13, 12:00 PM

2-1 not bad

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	17	8	68.00%	$100.5	ML	87	52	62.59%
Silver	16	12	57.14%	$4.5	O/U	25	22	53.19%
Bronze	14	12	53.85%	$1.99	ML reg	73	15	82.95%

Game win %

	W	L	%
50	14	8	63.64%
55	22	17	56.41%
60	20	15	57.14%
65	16	9	64.00%
70	16	2	88.89%

Gold = COL
Silver= WSH TBL
Bronze= NYI MTL

Consensus 6-3
PIT
TBL
STL
COL

calmeat · 11-01-13, 10:45 PM

nice night tonight 6-2 overall and 4-0 on Picks hope tomorrow is good as well with a big card.

imarkp · 11-01-13, 11:18 PM

outstanding calmeat! looks like clean sweep to me.

calmeat · 11-02-13, 11:46 AM

Posting now but will update later hopefully after i run some errands with the fam.

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	18	8	69.23%	$110.5	ML	93	54	63.27%
Silver	18	12	60.00%	$15.75	O/U	29	23	55.77%
Bronze	15	13	53.57%	$2.49	ML reg	78	16	82.98%

Game win %

	W	L	%
50	16	10	61.54%
55	22	17	56.41%
60	21	15	58.33%
65	18	9	66.67%
70	17	2	89.47%

Gold = None
Silver = STL ANA FLA MTL DET
Bronze= CHI NJD NYR PIT

Consensus 10-3
CHI
ANA
NJD
BOS
DET
SJS
LAK

calmeat · 11-03-13, 12:05 PM

...

calmeat · 11-04-13, 01:23 PM

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	18	8	69.23%	$110.5	ML	101	62	61.96%
Silver	20	15	57.14%	$9.25	O/U	31	24	56.36%
Bronze	18	15	54.55%	$3.86	ML reg	85	17	83.33%

Game Win %

	14	9	60.87%
	W	L	%
50	16	11	59.26%
55	27	18	60.00%
60	21	17	55.26%
65	20	13	60.61%
70	18	2	90.00%

Consensus 14-9
ANA
DET

Ser Pucks · 11-04-13, 02:10 PM

Thanks for these charts Calmeat. Read these everyday... much appreciated!

calmeat · 11-04-13, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by Ser Pucks

Thanks for these charts Calmeat. Read these everyday... much appreciated!

Cool, Hope they help you out.

If you ever wanna be generous with some SBR pts for the charts they would be greatly appreciated trying to renew to get to PRO.

Thanks and good luck

calmeat · 11-05-13, 03:17 PM

Ah sweet thanks guys for the pts!!!!!

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	19	8	70.37%	$121	ML	102	63	61.82%
Silver	20	16	55.56%	$2.25	O/U	31	25	55.36%
Bronze	18	15	54.55%	$3.86	ML reg	86	17	83.50%

Game Win %

	W	L	%
50	16	11	59.26%
55	27	18	60.00%
60	22	18	55.00%
65	20	13	60.61%
70	18	2	90.00%

Consensus 15-10
NYI
STL
PHI
MIN
SJS

calmeat · 11-06-13, 02:27 PM

hope today is better

calmeat · 11-06-13, 09:13 PM

Thanks Ser! was busy at work today so only had time to post this. Ill post records tomorrow.

calmeat · 11-07-13, 02:07 PM

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	19	9	67.86%	$111	ML	106	72	59.55%
Silver	21	16	56.76%	$7.25	O/U	32	27	54.24%
Bronze	18	18	50.00%	-$6.52	ML reg	89	19	82.41%

Game Win %

	W	L	%
50	16	13	55.17%
55	27	21	56.25%
60	24	20	54.55%
65	21	14	60.00%
70	19	3	86.36%

Consensus 19-14
BOS
MTL
NJD
NYI
TBL
STL
SJS
LAK

Zeb · 11-07-13, 08:32 PM

appreciate what you do here Calmeat, thanks for the work you put in. BOL to you

calmeat · 11-07-13, 11:02 PM

No prob Zeb hope it helps.

got robbed on a couple games tonight (by robbed i mean went into OT) I really thought MIN was gonna pull that off. oh well lost a little playing the picks but the consensus plays might turn out well.

Zeb · 11-08-13, 01:44 PM

yeah that was tough luck, but today is another day my friend! You'll get em back

calmeat · 11-08-13, 02:02 PM

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	20	10	66.67%	$111.5	ML	112	77	59.26%
Silver	22	20	52.38%	-$9.75	O/U	34	27	55.74%
Bronze	19	18	51.35%	-$4.02	ML reg	95	19	83.33%

Game Win %

	W	L	%
50	17	13	56.67%
55	27	22	55.10%
60	25	23	52.08%
65	21	15	58.33%
70	23	3	88.46%

Gold= NJD CGY
Silver=NSH
Bronze= ANA

Consensus = 24-16
TOR
NSH
COL
ANA

calmeat · 11-09-13, 11:56 AM

Consensus Picks 27-16
OTT
MIN
CHI
PHX
LAK

Gold = MIN CHI
Silver= None
Bronze=EDM TBL PIT

calmeat · 11-10-13, 12:10 AM

Thanks again Ser. Im a little pissed right now. Of course the one night i only do 3 plays instead of the whole card its goes 7-1 with LAK game still playing and they are up 5-1 at the end of 2. Possible 8-1 night and i only play 3, and other nights i play the whole card and end up either winning a little or losing a little.

Manel88 · 11-10-13, 12:21 AM

Consensus was 24-16 and went 3-1 yesterday so its 27-17 and not 27-16 i guess

imarkp · 11-10-13, 09:32 AM

nice bounce back. consensus 5-0. loved gold plays a lot more than fri when nj ang cgy were on road bb nights. is that factored in?

Ser Pucks · 11-10-13, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by calmeat

Thanks again Ser. Im a little pissed right now. Of course the one night i only do 3 plays instead of the whole card its goes 7-1 with LAK game still playing and they are up 5-1 at the end of 2. Possible 8-1 night and i only play 3, and other nights i play the whole card and end up either winning a little or losing a little.

So typical eh? Woulda coulda shoulda. Gotta start pounding those gold plays over 70%. They're...well.....GOLD!

Thanks again for your effort, much appreciated.

calmeat · 11-10-13, 10:10 AM

Yeah 70 % is def an auto play for me as long as i can get at least a decent Reg line on it. For the medal plays (gold etc.) I am only going to play them if thier game winning % is also higher (or even) If its lower by a lot say like CGY on friday night its a no play for me. But if its a 50 50 game win % like TB last night then ill play that game.

Yeah Ser very typical it just always blows my mind when that happens cause it happens often. rarely is it the other way around where i lay off games and end up losing it seems its always they win when i lay of them. I just ran system for today. I wont have much time to update rosters and goalies so ill post what i have and if i get time to update ill post the update. GL today!

Oh and imarkp yeah it takes them into consideration. I was surprised those plays got gold im guessing because the line was so bad on them that it makes it a value play. i am going to look into that and see exactly why though.

An Manel88 good catch i didnt add the loss in my spreadsheet on the consensus.

calmeat · 11-10-13, 12:11 PM

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	22	12	64.71%	$111.5	ML	123	79	60.89%
Silver	22	21	51.16%	-$15	O/U	35	28	55.56%
Bronze	21	20	51.22%	-$3.77	ML reg	104	21	83.20%

Game Win %

	W	L	%
50	21	14	60.00%
55	28	23	54.90%
60	26	23	53.06%
65	24	15	61.54%
70	25	3	89.29%

Consensus 32-17
MTL
NYR
NJD
COL
ANA

calmeat · 11-11-13, 12:46 PM

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	22	13	62.86%	$96.5	ML	129	80	61.72%
Silver	22	22	50.00%	-$15	O/U	35	29	54.69%
Bronze	22	20	52.38%	-$1.27	ML reg	110	21	83.97%

Game Win %

	W	L	%
50	23	14	62.16%
55	29	24	54.72%
60	27	23	54.00%
65	24	15	61.54%
70	27	3	90.00%

Consensus

37

17

68.52%

calmeat · 11-11-13, 08:56 PM

Early look for tomorrow

Also if you do props on player shots or anything like that just ask and i can let you know what their sim stats are.

Consensus as of right now
COL
WSH
NYI
NYR
MTL
ANA
DET
OTT
STL

livan33 · 11-12-13, 07:44 AM

Great job, Calmeat. Love this thread. Did you strip Stamkos out of the model for the Tampa numbers?

calmeat · 11-12-13, 08:34 AM

Yes stamkos is not in the lineup for TBL. I will check later today to make sure i have the correct lineup for them and also update goalies.

One thing that seems good is only playing the medal plays (gold silver bronze) if thier game win% is higher then the opponent unless its only by a couple pts (51% to 49%). But if its like 73% and 27% and the 27% is gold or another play then i would not play that.

Remember those "medal" plays are plays based on value. Although they are a +300 sometimes and a great longshot i wouldnt put the money on that dog or if i did it would be a smaller play just in case it did hit.

calmeat · 11-12-13, 01:50 PM

	W	L	%	$		W	L	%
Gold	22	13	62.86%	$96.5	ML	130	80	61.90%
Silver	22	22	50.00%	-$15	O/U	35	29	54.69%
Bronze	22	20	52.38%	-$1.27	ML reg	111	21	84.09%

Game win%

	W	L	%
50	23	14	62.16%
55	29	24	54.72%
60	28	23	54.90%
65	24	15	61.54%
70	27	3	90.00%

*note NSH goalie first start so that game is an error since no stats for him yet

Consensus 37-17 68.52%
COL
WSH
NYR
MTL
ANA
DET
OTT
STL
NYI (lean other system has them to win and before goalie change this system did as well)

Gold= ANA
Silver= LAK NJD TBL OTT

Grease King · 11-12-13, 03:16 PM

How do you decide whether to pick a team for ML vs picking it for a regulation win? Do you just do that when a team is heavily favored?

calmeat · 11-12-13, 03:30 PM

Grease King,
Yeah i usually try to stick with the ML but in cases where the juice is to high ill go with the REG. Also i look to the Large lead column if its close there ill stick with the ML but if there is a sig difference ill go with REG or -1.5, usually REG.

LARGE LEAD is actually the average largest lead which is predicted for this game. For example, if we ran 100 simulations for this game, and Team A never led in 25 of them, led by a max of 1 in 25 of them, and led by a max of 2 in 50 of them, then the average largest lead would be 1.25

Joe05ca · 11-12-13, 05:36 PM

So we have some underdogs tonight cal??
I beleive they all ml??

calmeat · 11-12-13, 05:49 PM

trying something here this is more to track to see how it would do

(COL @ CAR) - Total shots on goal in the game - Nathan Gerbe (CAR)
2½
(-130)over

(LA @ BUF) - Total shots on goal in the game - Anze Kopitar (LA)
3½
(-115)under

(LA @ BUF) - Total shots on goal in the game - Drew Stafford (BUF)
2½
(+110)over

(ANA @ FLA) - Total shots on goal in the game - Corey Perry (ANA)
4
(-115)under

Joe05ca · 11-12-13, 06:15 PM

Cal are u picks all ml for today ?

TankHankerous · 11-12-13, 06:27 PM

I like NYR in reg (-110)