128 Man R1- MonkeyF0cker vs rjt721

[ShamsWoof10]

If you can't comprehend the concepts and practices of probability, standard deviation, modelling, value, line shopping, sample size, and contest rules and practices including, but not limited to: limits on the amount of plays and playing from behind, then you are as square as they come. And there is absolutely no way that I would ever assist someone such as yourself in ever bringing that knowledge to fruition because quite frankly, it's beyond your intellect and you would never be worthy of such insight.

If you handicap better you won't be behind but then again look who I am talking to... If you go 2-5 line shopping isn't going to do sh*t for you.... The first thing is you got to be on the right side and that has NOTHING to do with anything you listed....

If there was no limits on plays then you would be even further in the hole...

probability, standard deviation, modelling, value, line shopping, sample size

Now how about explainning to me what any of these have to do with how solid a team is at each position..?

After all we are talking about handicapping teams aren't we..?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Oh man, you sure are good for a laugh. As I said, I'll continue to leave you in your state of cluelessness. Not only do I not feel like explaining these concepts to you numerous times before even a faint sense of comprehension comes to light, but I really don't care about you and there is no sense in trying to help an incompetent insignificant such as yourself.

[rjt721]

WHAT F*CKIN' BULLSH*T....

For all of you that think this I want you to tell me how chosing a game for this contest and chosing one you actually bet on is any differant as far as handicapping...?

Are you saying you bet games you handicap and just pick games out of the air for the contest..?

It's 7 games you fucking idiot.

Did you ride the little bus to school as a kid?

[ShamsWoof10]

It's 7 games you fucking idiot.

Did you ride the little bus to school as a kid?

You are the f*ckin' idiot... It's 7 games for the first round not the whole contest...

Oh man, you sure are good for a laugh. As I said, I'll continue to leave you in your state of cluelessness. Not only do I not feel like explaining these concepts to you numerous times before even a faint sense of comprehension comes to light, but I really don't care about you and there is no sense in trying to help an incompetent insignificant such as yourself.

As I figured NO EXPLANATION!!! This laughing at nothing to avoid providing an explanation is typical of someone with no answer to the question... That happens a lot around here...

[rjt721]

You are the f*ckin' idiot... It's 7 games for the first round not the whole contest...

Still not a large enough sample size to garner an accurate conclusion as to one's handicapping abilities. But that's beside the point considering you have (ridiculously) criticized MF for not advancing to the second round, as if betting stale lines for a sample size of 7 is an accurate measure of his ability (it's surely not).

[MonkeyF0cker]

You are the f*ckin' idiot... It's 7 games for the first round not the whole contest...



As I figured NO EXPLANATION!!! This laughing at nothing to avoid providing an explanation is typical of someone with no answer to the question... That happens a lot around here...

I don't owe you an explanation. I'll just let you think what you want and be wrong as usual. I really don't care.

[donjuan]

WHAT F*CKIN' BULLSH*T....

For all of you that think this I want you to tell me how chosing a game for this contest and chosing one you actually bet on is any differant as far as handicapping...?

Are you saying you bet games you handicap and just pick games out of the air for the contest..?

My picks in the contest are

a) not always realistic as the numbers are stale
b) rarely games I bet as I'm trying to bet plays that give me the best chance to beat my opponent rather than simply make +EG bets.

You should try actually thinking about these things rather than coming up with as many random conspiracy theories as possible hoping that one will stick.

[donjuan]

Now how about explainning to me what any of these have to do with how solid a team is at each position..?

After all we are talking about handicapping teams aren't we..?

Because modeling is how you handicap if you actually want to beat sports betting at widely available prices.

[ShamsWoof10]

My picks in the contest are

a) not always realistic as the numbers are stale.

A... BOTH players are betting the same "stale" numbers and it's not like people are getting beat by a half point on a regular basis...

[ShamsWoof10]

I don't owe you an explanation. I'll just let you think what you want and be wrong as usual. I really don't care.

More bullsh*t....

Here is a question for you... Let's see if you can actually provide an answer for this one...

Why do you keep responding if you don't care about this and that... as you claim..????

[rjt721]

A... BOTH players are betting the same "stale" numbers and it's not like people are getting beat by a half point on a regular basis...

Quit while you're behind.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I believe I already answered this question, genius. And you wonder why I don't want to waste my time explaining fundamental handicapping concepts to you. You can't even remember 8 posts ago...

[donjuan]

A... BOTH players are betting the same "stale" numbers and it's not like people are getting beat by a half point on a regular basis...

The potential range of outcomes of each sporting event can be shown by that event's probability distribution function. This is why getting the best number is important in normal betting and why you don't win 90% ATS. Winning sports betting is about finding small edges, not picking winners. This contest has an extremely limited sample size and the ability to vary the odds you bet at further diminishes the sample size and importance of handicapping ability. The only time handicapping actually comes into play in this contest is when choosing between 2 bets with similar odds offered, e.g. I bet Missouri -9 -110 rather than a baseball team -125 when needing to choose a bet at -129 or greater because I had the Missouri bet handicapped as a slightly higher win %.

[ShamsWoof10]

I believe I already answered this question, genius. And you wonder why I don't want to waste my time explaining fundamental handicapping concepts to you. You can't even remember 8 posts ago...

Ok so first you don't "OWE" me an explanation and now you are saying you did provide one which is pathetic....

This is why getting the best number is important in normal betting and why you don't win 90% ATS.

You're an idiot... You have absolutely NO DATA on my betting percentage but you just pull it out of the air as if it's fact.... What little you do have is above .500 ...what a joke you are...

Winning sports betting is about finding small edges, not picking winners.

TOTAL GARBAGE!!!!

You explain how you can pick losers and still make money..?

F*ck all this pulling out of the air sh*t (which you have shown that you do) I want some proof...

[donjuan]

You're an idiot... You have absolutely NO DATA on my betting percentage but you just pull it out of the air as if it's fact.... What little you do have is above .500 ...what a joke you are...

My use of "you" was in the general sense, not specifically relating to you, Shamswoof.

Care to tell us what your winning percentage is ATS. I'm sure we could all use a good chuckle. Outside of props, game lines simply aren't wildly inefficient.

TOTAL GARBAGE!!!!

You explain how you can pick losers and still make money..?

F*ck all this pulling out of the air sh*t (which you have shown that you do) I want some proof...

I don't picking losers and winners, tard. I place bets with +EV and +EG. Obviously these basic ideas are all over your head so that explains why you would never bother in the Think Tank.

[ShamsWoof10]

Care to tell us what your winning percentage is ATS. I'm sure we could all use a good chuckle. Outside of props, game lines simply aren't wildly inefficient.
.

Can you tell us yours... TARD..?

[MonkeyF0cker]

See, donjuan, that's exactly why I won't waste my time. Shams is as square as they come. He can't even comprehend the correlation between win % and linesmaking. The funny thing is he'll actually sit and argue about it. It's math! But he'll still argue. Waste of time.

[donjuan]

Can you tell us yours... TARD..?

~54% for NCAAF.

[ShamsWoof10]

See, donjuan, that's exactly why I won't waste my time. Shams is as square as they come. He can't even comprehend the correlation between win % and linesmaking. The funny thing is he'll actually sit and argue about it. It's math! But he'll still argue. Waste of time.

OH GOD FORBID I ASK FOR PROOF.... What is your percentage...? If this is math then show me all your plays for the last month and let's see how it worked out..

Show me the plays... show me the math.... The show me state wants you to SHOW not just SAY it...

[donjuan]

See, donjuan, that's exactly why I won't waste my time. Shams is as square as they come. He can't even comprehend the correlation between win % and linesmaking. The funny thing is he'll actually sit and argue about it. It's math! But he'll still argue. Waste of time.

Looks like it. Hadn't really seen him talk sports much but now I understand why he doesn't venture into the Think Tank. He'd be laughed out of there rather quickly.

[donjuan]

OH GOD FORBID I ASK FOR PROOF.... What is your percentage...? If this is math then show me all your plays for the last month and let's see how it worked out..

Show me the plays... show me the math.... The show me state wants you to SHOW not just SAY it...

There is very little incentive to post plays on a forum unless you plan on going tout. Those who are +EV and do are simply very giving and nice.

[ShamsWoof10]

~54% for NCAAF.

Which is one week old... Big f*ckin' deal for one week... There are not many I know who didn't do good the first week...

This jerkoff is talking about sample size and he gives me one week of games...

[donjuan]

Which is one week old... Big f*ckin' deal for one week... There are not many I know who didn't do good the first week...

This jerkoff is talking about sample size and he gives me one week of games...

Er, no. As if I would quote a one week sample size as representative of anything. That is my lifetime NCAAF win rate over a decent sample size, although certainly not a huge sample size like you get with years of baseball.

[ShamsWoof10]

Er, no. As if I would quote a one week sample size as representative of anything. That is my lifetime NCAAF win rate over a decent sample size, although certainly not a huge sample size like you get with years of baseball.

I"m 57.9732% over last years college hoops season with 3/4 being second half bets...

[donjuan]

Lovely. I'd actually much rather have a 54% winning percentage than a 58% winning percentage as at 58% you simply aren't betting enough games and are thus leaving money on the table with small +EV bets. Seeing as my goal in sports betting is to make money, not to have the highest winning percentage, I'll take mine. Now tell me a few things:

1. Do you accept that sporting events have an inherent partial randomness to them?
2. Do you accept that the potential range of outcomes of sporting events follows a probability distribution function that is unique for each event?
3. Do you accept that you can gain an edge by line shopping if the market is efficient?
4. Do you accept that the sports betting market is reasonably efficient, i.e. 70% chances at -110 on bets with high limits don't exist with publicly available info or are anomalies like the Super Bowl moneyline each year?
5. Do you see why this contest has little to do with handicapping ability yet?

[MonkeyF0cker]

OH GOD FORBID I ASK FOR PROOF.... What is your percentage...? If this is math then show me all your plays for the last month and let's see how it worked out..

Show me the plays... show me the math.... The show me state wants you to SHOW not just SAY it...

I wasn't talking about MY winning percentage. I was talking about a team's probability of winning and how that determines the line set by linesmakers, genius. It is impossible to teach an ignoramous like you anything since you THINK you know everything already. Worthless.