MLB moneyline correlation w/ final score disparity

[princecharles]

I'm surprised there isn't a stronger nexus between a heavy MLB fav ML, and thier 'runs won by'.
Conversely, there seems to be little linkage between two similar priced teams playing each other and an expected close game.

Can anyone shed some light on what I must be missing, either in my supposition and/or expectation please?

[evo34]

what exactly are you asking?

[mathdotcom]

I'm surprised there isn't a stronger nexus between a heavy MLB fav ML, and thier 'runs won by'.
Conversely, there seems to be little linkage between two similar priced teams playing each other and an expected close game.

Can anyone shed some light on what I must be missing, either in my supposition and/or expectation please?

A close game between Giants and Dodgers is 2-1

A close game between Yankees and Rangers is 10-6

[tto827]

Any given game, especially in baseball, can have a huge disparity from the expected. If you look at 500 games with similar priced teams,I would expect home/away total runs to be relatively even. I would expect the heavy favorites to outscore their opponents by a maybe a run a game on average.

Tough to explain, but what I am trying to say is for a series between two evenly matched opponents, the likelihood of games being 4-3, 3-2, and 4-5 are rather unlikely, but 6-2, 4-6, and 4-7 are more common with the same total run differential.