Handicapping NFL 1st quarters

RickySteve · 10-13-08, 07:13 PM

Sounds like someone needs to spend an afternoon with databasefootball.com.

$$POOLCRAZY$$$$ · 10-13-08, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Igetp2s

I was wondering if any can provide an educated guess as to how much advantage is gained in 1st quarter wagering depending on who gets the ball first.

Suppose Team A is +0.5 -110, and Team B is -0.5 -110 and that the lines accurately reflect a 50% chance of winning on each side.

What I would like to know is about how much the chances of winning increase if you know they are getting the ball first. My guess (without any supporting data) would be around a 10% increase to 60% for the team getting the ball first.

This is based on a 50% probability of the team getting the ball first having an extra COMPLETED drive by the end of the quarter.

Does my number sound reasonable, or do you think it's too high or too low? Does anyone have any actual data to support their number? Of course, this also applies to 3rd quarter betting.

bro,jus bet flat bets...You aint got a clue..walke up bro!!

Peep · 10-14-08, 09:00 AM

I think it is an interesting question.

If you can find where to get the data, I am willing to compile it and check it. We would need at least five and preferably ten years of data to get any sort of decent sample.

Easy to check the value IF you know who gets the ball first in each half. Simplest way, just do an average and/or median of the score differential with the ball first and without for all games.

And if you are Justin, you can even do a standard deviation (or two).

Art Vandeleigh · 10-14-08, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by Igetp2s

I was wondering if any can provide an educated guess ....

.... Of course, this also applies to 3rd quarter betting.

My educated guess is that it wouldn't apply to 3rd quarter betting as much as 1st quarter. There are still many coaches out there who believe in establishing the running game early on to set up the passing game, and so opening drives where a couple of grind it out first downs are made can eat up half the 1st quarter before you know it. Also, the game plan may be to play ball control as much as possible, and I doubt you can find a better example than the NY Giants opening drive in the Super Bowl last year which took and incredible 10 minutes off the clock.

3rd quarter aggressivness (or lack thereof) may depend more on the game situation as a result of the halftime score.

Igetp2s · 10-16-08, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by Peep

I think it is an interesting question.

If you can find where to get the data, I am willing to compile it and check it. We would need at least five and preferably ten years of data to get any sort of decent sample.

Easy to check the value IF you know who gets the ball first in each half. Simplest way, just do an average and/or median of the score differential with the ball first and without for all games.

And if you are Justin, you can even do a standard deviation (or two).

I am not sure where to get data from, other than going through each boxscore 1 by 1.

The way I estimated 60% win percentage is that half the time it doesn't matter, since both teams will have equal number of finished drives.

The other 50% of the time, the team getting the ball first will have either a 2-1 or 3-2 drive advantage (most of the time), with 2-1 a little more likely.

I don't think tempo and establishing the running game has much to do with it, I think number of completed drives and opportunities to score are the key variable.