What factors do you take into account when determining which direction the line....

[Jcoz]

is likely to go? As in when you get the early lines, which ones do you jump on and why? Plz site examples if possible.....

I ask because this is the first year I have had early access to NCAA lines and I have been incorrect at least a few times....

[donjuan]

The line is most likely to move towards fair value.

[Peep]

Look at the way Pinnacle is leaning early.

[jtuck]

I dont cap football as seriously as i cap baseball but with bases overnights i'd cap all of the next days games in the afternoon and decide what i thought was fair odds on the game and when overnights came out i would hit the ones with the most value. Same idea with all other sports early lines.

[Jcoz]

I dont cap football as seriously as i cap baseball but with bases overnights i'd cap all of the next days games in the afternoon and decide what i thought was fair odds on the game and when overnights came out i would hit the ones with the most value. Same idea with all other sports early lines.

So if you cap a game and it moves the opposite of what you would call fair value based on how you capped the game, do you start to worry?

For the record this has happened twice this year (NCAA FB) and one time I pushed, the other I lost. (UGA South Carolina Push, Wisconsin at Michigan lost...and that one moved a point and a half by game time!!!! )

I hopped on 2 games this week on monday morning...they were small favs.....they promptly moved down a half point later in the day. It wasn't a critical half point per say, (-2.5 to -2) but I was a bit upset once that happened again.

[Jcoz]

The line is most likely to move towards fair value.

And actually as I give this more thought, what do you mean exactly when you say "fair value"?

Do you mean what splits the crowd? Is that fair value? Because in that case it shouldn't worry me as much as it has.

[jtuck]

So if you cap a game and it moves the opposite of what you would call fair value based on how you capped the game, do you start to worry?

I don't really worry, no one will be on the right side of the line move all of the time. I will look deeper into the game and see if there is anything i missed. If i missed something important i'll see if i can get a decent number on the other side so i'm only out the juice, but if i didnt miss anything then then its not a big deal to me.

[reno cool]

And actually as I give this more thought, what do you mean exactly when you say "fair value"?

Do you mean what splits the crowd? Is that fair value? Because in that case it shouldn't worry me as much as it has.

I'm guessing he's talking about 50/50 split as in probability of winning (on a point spread), although some have argued against.

[Jcoz]

I'm guessing he's talking about 50/50 split as in probability of winning (on a point spread), although some have argued against.

So then under that assumption, if you bet games Saturday morning (NCAA), you would only have a 50/50 chance of winning no matter how good a 'capper you are?

EDIT: or no matter how BAD a 'capper you are!

[reno cool]

no

handicapping is a strange thing.

depending on information available the same thing can have two different probabilities and both be correct. I know it sounds strange.

If you throw a dart for picking your probability would be 50%. But if you have more info you can beat that #.


But any way closer to 50/50 does not mean 50-50.

[TLD]

So then under that assumption, if you bet games Saturday morning (NCAA), you would only have a 50/50 chance of winning no matter how good a 'capper you are?

EDIT: or no matter how BAD a 'capper you are!

From the claim that lines are more likely to move toward fair value, it does not follow that every line will move toward fair value and will in fact reach it precisely Saturday morning.

[reno cool]

Interesting idea here is assuming lines tend to move towards fair value,( and its not due to changes taking place during the week that affect outcome) a linesmaker type of handicapper would find more value early.

[Peep]

a linesmaker type of handicapper would find more value early.

I would say that is definitely true.

[BuddyBear]

is likely to go? As in when you get the early lines, which ones do you jump on and why? Plz site examples if possible.....

I ask because this is the first year I have had early access to NCAA lines and I have been incorrect at least a few times....

If you know nothing else about NCAAF, and are forced to guess which way the line will move, your best guess is always that the line will move in favor of the underdog. Generally speaking, money tends to show on the underdog so based strictly on that you could anticipate a line move on the underdog.

Of course, money does show on the favorite too so don't think 100% of the time the line will move in favor of the underdog.

Predicting line movement is something of an art and science. After you've been betting a while, you'll begin to notice certain aspects of the way in which the line moves (i.e. a qualitative/unscientific approach). For example, you start to notice that money usually tends to show on home dogs is a qualitative assessment. But you could also collect your own data and begin to note when the lines moves, what type of movement occurs, how much the line moves by, etc... (i.e. a more quantitative approach). More advanced techniques would require data modeling in order to try to predict with a higher degree of accuracy about where the money will show.

It's not easy and requires quite a bit of work.....

Good luck....

[pico]

no

handicapping is a strange thing.

depending on information available the same thing can have two different probabilities and both be correct. I know it sounds strange.

If you throw a dart for picking your probability would be 50%. But if you have more info you can beat that #.


But any way closer to 50/50 does not mean 50-50.

all the information avaliable before the game is reflected in the line. but things could change in a hurry after the kick-off/first pitch.

my understanding is the opening line reflect the bookie's concept's 50-50 chance. closing line is the market's concept. if you think of it like a stock market, the movement before the closing line is like the pre-market trading.

take a look at live trading odds, the line keeps moving until the last few minutes/seconds. so using pre-game line movement to predict how will the game end like using pre-market stock price to predict the daily closing price. come to think about it, the odds does reflect everyone's concensus on the game before it starts, so if you don't know anything at all, it is one clue that you can use, but it is not accurate at all.

but if the line movement is due to new information, such as injury, line up change, weather etc...it does improve one team's change to win, so by following that line movement early, you do increase your change of making a profit. but most of the time, we gotten info way too late. for example, cleveland brown line moved from +3 to +1...then we found out palmer is not starting, so we know why it moved, but it was too late. now you can take the new line and hope it cover, but you already gave up at least 30 cents in the line move, so over the long term, you might be worse off. also sometimes people overreact for some non-impact news...sometimes it is hard for you to tell whether something is relevant, so if you follow the line movement blindly you might catch bunch of false info moves, then you end up taking the line with worse odds and no improvement in the win%.

in conclusion. betting aint easy.