spread vs. ML chart?

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  • LVHerbie
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-15-05
    • 6344

    #1
    spread vs. ML chart?
    Anyone know where I could find a chart that gives what a fair ML would be given a specific spread for game? NFL and college football is what I'm looking for right now...
  • donjuan
    SBR MVP
    • 08-29-07
    • 3993

    #2
    It depends on the total but this is a rough approximation:

    Comment
    • LVHerbie
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-15-05
      • 6344

      #3
      thanks... I didn't realize that calculator existed here... Anyone care to explain (share ideas) about how one would go about added the impact of the total into the conversion...
      Comment
      • Peep
        SBR MVP
        • 06-23-08
        • 2295

        #4
        High total increases variant IMO.

        So that would make a seven point dog a bit better ML bet with a high total.

        I don't think that a very high total would affect the ML more than 15% up or down.

        Suppose I could check it with a DB, but my experience is that bookmakers generally get this sort of number correct, as in there would be no player edge on ML vs. spread number.
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          Originally posted by Peep
          High total increases variant IMO.

          So that would make a seven point dog a bit better ML bet with a high total.

          I don't think that a very high total would affect the ML more than 15% up or down.

          Suppose I could check it with a DB, but my experience is that bookmakers generally get this sort of number correct, as in there would be no player edge on ML vs. spread number.
          Actually I think it is the exact opposite. The seven-point underdog would have a higher ML with a LOWER total because the value of a point is so much more in that case.
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          • Peep
            SBR MVP
            • 06-23-08
            • 2295

            #6
            Thanks LT.

            I wasn't sure either, didn't know if I was talking through my ass or not. I know in baseball alternates, the high total helps the alternate runline.

            Glad you posted that, makes me go check it. (Which I should have done first lol).
            Comment
            • Peep
              SBR MVP
              • 06-23-08
              • 2295

              #7
              Here is some proof of my answer that it is better for the dog.

              I have 416 NFL games lined at HD of more than 7 pts.
              115 of these won, 27.6%.

              If I only do Home Dogs of 7 pts or more totaled at 44 or more, the numbers are

              125 total games.
              40 won.

              32%.

              If anyone else has DB numbers, I'll do a bit more. I am a lazy querier......
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Actually you just helped proved my case.

                Bigger dogs at bigger totals won at a higher rate than the overall big dog population. Thus, the bigger the total, the better the chance of an upset , so the ML should be lower at high totals relative to the same spread at lower totals.
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                • Peep
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-23-08
                  • 2295

                  #9
                  so the ML should be lower at high totals relative to the same spread at lower totals.
                  Well.... that is what I was trying to say at first!

                  This communications business is scarey!
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Peep
                    So that would make a seven point dog a bit better ML bet with a high total.
                    I'm sorry, I inexplicably read that as BIGGER ML with high total. So in addiiton to being senile, I am also going blind.
                    Comment
                    • LVHerbie
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-15-05
                      • 6344

                      #11
                      Any suggestions on how one might quantify this?
                      Comment
                      • Ganchrow
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-28-05
                        • 5011

                        #12
                        Originally posted by LVHerbie
                        Any suggestions on how one might quantify this?
                        Ryan Parker gives a simple example of how one might attempt to derive a fair MLB run from the ML+Total here. Reading this may give you some ideas.
                        Comment
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