Anyone know where I could find a chart that gives what a fair ML would be given a specific spread for game? NFL and college football is what I'm looking for right now...
spread vs. ML chart?
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LVHerbieSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-15-05
- 6344
#1spread vs. ML chart?
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donjuanSBR MVP
- 08-29-07
- 3993
#2It depends on the total but this is a rough approximation:
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LVHerbieSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-15-05
- 6344
#3thanks... I didn't realize that calculator existed here... Anyone care to explain (share ideas) about how one would go about added the impact of the total into the conversion...Comment -
PeepSBR MVP
- 06-23-08
- 2295
#4High total increases variant IMO.
So that would make a seven point dog a bit better ML bet with a high total.
I don't think that a very high total would affect the ML more than 15% up or down.
Suppose I could check it with a DB, but my experience is that bookmakers generally get this sort of number correct, as in there would be no player edge on ML vs. spread number.Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#5High total increases variant IMO.
So that would make a seven point dog a bit better ML bet with a high total.
I don't think that a very high total would affect the ML more than 15% up or down.
Suppose I could check it with a DB, but my experience is that bookmakers generally get this sort of number correct, as in there would be no player edge on ML vs. spread number.Comment -
PeepSBR MVP
- 06-23-08
- 2295
#6Thanks LT.
I wasn't sure either, didn't know if I was talking through my ass or not. I know in baseball alternates, the high total helps the alternate runline.
Glad you posted that, makes me go check it. (Which I should have done first lol).Comment -
PeepSBR MVP
- 06-23-08
- 2295
#7Here is some proof of my answer that it is better for the dog.
I have 416 NFL games lined at HD of more than 7 pts.
115 of these won, 27.6%.
If I only do Home Dogs of 7 pts or more totaled at 44 or more, the numbers are
125 total games.
40 won.
32%.
If anyone else has DB numbers, I'll do a bit more. I am a lazy querier......Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#8Actually you just helped proved my case.
Bigger dogs at bigger totals won at a higher rate than the overall big dog population. Thus, the bigger the total, the better the chance of an upset , so the ML should be lower at high totals relative to the same spread at lower totals.Comment -
PeepSBR MVP
- 06-23-08
- 2295
#9so the ML should be lower at high totals relative to the same spread at lower totals.
This communications business is scarey!Comment -
LVHerbieSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-15-05
- 6344
#11Any suggestions on how one might quantify this?Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#12Ryan Parker gives a simple example of how one might attempt to derive a fair MLB run from the ML+Total here. Reading this may give you some ideas.Comment
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