Capping the election: a useful tool

[square1]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

I like this site for election probability analysis. It's a blog done at least in part by Nate Silver, of PECOTA fame. Love or hate PECOTA, I think you have to respect Silver's creativity and innovation in statistical analysis.

What this site attempts to do is incorporate various polls to estimate win probabilities in each state, and then use monte carlo methods to get national win probabilities. I didn't slog through all the details, but it appears to be pretty well done.

Obviously, the election's not for a while, and there's a lot more information to consider than just poll numbers. Still, they seem to be pretty diligent in updating their numbers, and it will be interesting to see if the site can accurately foreshadow price changes in the political futures markets. Definitely a site I'll be checking often.

Right now at matchbook, prices are McCain +200 / Obama -190. Silver has the win chances favoring Obama, but only 53/47. I think it's reasonable to assume that the closer we get to the election, the more predictive power the polls have, so the numbers should converge, implying either Obama's price will come down, or his poll numbers will go up.

Thoughts?

[RickySteve]

Markets >>>>> Polls

[Wheell]

I think so long as people still believe that a poll which is 51-48 with a MOE of 4 is a dead heat people will be unable to do accurate math as to how likely an event is.

You might find this useful:

http://electoralmap.net/index.php

[The HG]

Alls I know is, I gots Hillary on the "no" for VP at -375.

Yeah, that's right: +EV. Jealous?

[Wheell]

HG: Remind me what Red or Purple state she brings into the Blue column?

Webb was being floated as a possibility due to his turning Virginia blue. We'll see what happens.

[square1]

That's a very nice site as well Wheell.

[Wheell]

I think it gives a less volatile look at the election. It also shows that a landslide is out of the question.

[BuddyBear]

Model or no model, Obama wins in a landslide IMO......

Realistically he should carry approximately 40 states give or take 2...so somewhere between 38-42 states he should carry.

[Wheell]

BuddyBear: You are in dream land.

[BuddyBear]

BuddyBear: You are in dream land.

Bump it up after the election and you can owe me an apology too

[Wheell]

I'll apologize now, I should not have made an ad hominem attack. I'm sorry about that BuddyBear.

Having said that, there is no way for a Democrat to win in a land slide. Then again, land slide is a vague term. Obama wins fewer states than McCain.

[The HG]

I'll apologize now, I should not have made an ad hominem attack.

Why not? How many infractions do you have? You must have room for one more, don't you? I'd be surprised if you're maxed out.

But I agree, these days only Repubs can really win in a landslide, Reagan-style. I guess you could call Clinton in '96 a "landslide", he got about 2/3 of everything. But that was a special year. The dotcom thing was just starting to boom, Bill was rockin and rollin on that Pimpin' Prez type sh*t, and Dole really was a crotchety joke. And also, Clinton completely stole a lot of the Repubs' key shtick, which is why they hated him so much.

McCain is crotchety too, but way better at politics than the Dole people, and Obama is no Bill. Obama is primarily governed by integrity, and that's going to be a major thing he'll have to overcome, and it will keep him from winning by a landslide.

I do think Obama will win, because side by side with McCain, Obama will look like a star. McCain will look like a batty old dude spewing about loving his country and protecting us from evil and all that.

Mark my words, when the polls start coming out, Obama will be shown to have a modest lead that might seem like one McCain could overcome. But month after month, those numbers won't budge at all. Obama will win with a modest three length win, the same margin he will start with.

But as for me, I doubled up on my Hillary "no VP" bet. I need this one boys, root it home for me. I don't know how to root in a "no" political prop bet.

[betplom]

[BuddyBear]

Nothing personal Wheel or anything like that. I've looked at enough polling data to know that there is little if anything McCain has an advantage on Obama. Only natinal security issues is perceived stronger than Obama. That's it though. Obama holds distinct advantages in almost everything. Name any issue out there and the American public perceives the Democrats as better capable of then the Republicans. With an unpopular war, an unpopular president, a flat economy, economic uncertainty/pessissm among the American public, health care costs, gas prices, etc... Everything points to an Obama blow out. Throw in the fact that conservatives don't even like McCain all that much and it's almost impossible IMO to see how McCain wins this election. Every blue state will remain blue without a doubt and the hardcore red states like Alabama, Mississippi, etc.. will remain Republican strongholds but places like New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Arkansas, Colorado, New Hampshire will all be going Democrat. In the end, I really feel there is a political storm coming and Obama will be the beneficiary.

The VP selection for Obama is just an event. It won't do anything to help or hurt him IMO. Same holds true for McCain.

[pico]

Alls I know is, I gots Hillary on the "no" for VP at -375.

Yeah, that's right: +EV. Jealous?

that is a lock. obama has a death wish if he picked her to be the VP.

[Wheell]

Buddy Bear: We need to come up with terms for a gentlemen's bet. I feel you are vastly underestimating A: How Conservative the US is, B: How racist America is, and C: How hard it is for a national Democrat to win in a lot of GOP states.

I'm not saying Obama is a dog to be President, but I am saying he won't win big under any circumstance.

[Wheell]

HG: No infractions. This isn't about SBR, I'm just noting that what I did was morally wrong. Accusing someone of being in dream land implies they are an out of touch with reality.

[jdog121]

Obama will win.

[abacus30]

Just put 50 down on McCain +200. Hope I lose, as it will be the best bet I've ever lost in my life. However, I think the U.S. is very conservative overall, many of the polling places are fixed for Repubs (especially in Ohio) and there are many racists everywhere from sea to shining sea. I'd be shocked if I don't win 100.

[BuddyBear]

If you want, we can make a gentlemen's bet being that the loser has to wear the other candidates avitar if you want? I am debating Obama and Nader but a slight lean toward Nader as of now. I need to see more substance from Obama and quit pandering to right wing lobby groups like he's been doing lately.


Now, true Wheel, that is a pretty big concern of mine. A) The US is a really conservative country by almost any measure. In terms of religiosity, the US is amazing given its level of industrialized and educational advancement. It's amazing to think that so many people are so religiously fervent in this country given that. B) Agree again. The US is still a relatively racist country, but racism is much different now then it it was 30 years ago, 100 years ago, 200 years ago, etc... One thing is that Obama isn't your "stereotypical black." Being well educated, well-versed, and having a diverse background will help him out quite a bit. His VP will almost assurdely be white and that will negate some racist feelings no doubt. Moreover, Obama will make a concerted effort to distant himself from many controversial African-Americans and what not. The race card will be important and will be played, but I am not sure how effective it will be. C) It's real tough, but this is an extremely difficult political environment for Republicans and conservative candidates to be running an election in. Americans are looking for a change and well (sadly) you don't have many options in this country...you either vote R or D. Right now, Americans are pretty tired of conservative rule and feel quite a bit of hostitility. Given the current and perceived state of the economy and the current president's low approval ratings (two very strong predictors of which party is going to be next in office) it's very very difficult for me to see how McCain wins. He'll have to battle for voters in his own party which is a real bad sign IMO. Democrats are very united regardless of what is being said. The main agenda right now is to get a D elected and the forces are united.

Now, with that in mind, a lot can happen between now and November (i.e. big upswing in the economy, scandal, vp choices, etc...) but I just think when you look at the biggest issues voters are considering, Republicans are receiving very low marks. McCain has a lot of work to do but it's going to be an uphill battle for him IMO.

We'll see if my predictions are right, but all things being equal, it's hard for me to see a McCain victory.