Help with Teasers

[statictheory]

so what do you guys think about tomorrow games???...any oportunities...I see just 2 so far

well, add 2 more to the btc method. kc, seattle to 49ers

[tomcowley]

You think you understand the process, but you don't. I suggested that the subset in question may be so successful because of prevent defense. After all, if one of these dogs were behind 17 points with a few minutes left, they could easily play against a disinterested defense, and themselves only be interested in a TD (foregoing the FG). That is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis.

Do you think somebody is texting the opposing coaches the closing CRIS line, so that they can massively alter strategy if the game closes +4/+6 instead of +4.5/+5.5? It isn't sufficient to make up an explanation for why +4.5 covers- you also need an explanation for why +4 and +6 and +3.5 and +6.5 don't. Your fairy tale is not consistent with the data. At all.

Even if you went back and found that these had backdoor covered an inordinate amount in the past (their distribution is abnormal, and so it has to get to that point in one or more abnormal ways), what mechanism are you proposing that would cause that to be predictive of the future? What on-field mechanism are you proposing that translates back to future games with a spread of exactly 4.5-5.5, but not +4/+6? You're literally reduced to positing that coaches/players know the spread and make significant strategy adjustments at exactly +4.5-+5.5 that they don't make anywhere else, which is prettty much absurd. Your hypothesis doesn't even explain why you would expect this to continue going forward.

[dimon]

all right guys, we MIGHT have some betting opportunities comming weekend....I think that we need to stop arguing and share the thoughts regarding the plays

[tomcowley]

Bet the alts at pinnacle. Be sure to maxbet it when it reaches -260.

[Dark Horse]

Do you think somebody is texting the opposing coaches the closing CRIS line, so that they can massively alter strategy if the game closes +4/+6 instead of +4.5/+5.5? It isn't sufficient to make up an explanation for why +4.5 covers- you also need an explanation for why +4 and +6 and +3.5 and +6.5 don't. Your fairy tale is not consistent with the data. At all.

Even if you went back and found that these had backdoor covered an inordinate amount in the past (their distribution is abnormal, and so it has to get to that point in one or more abnormal ways), what mechanism are you proposing that would cause that to be predictive of the future? What on-field mechanism are you proposing that translates back to future games with a spread of exactly 4.5-5.5, but not +4/+6? You're literally reduced to positing that coaches/players know the spread and make significant strategy adjustments at exactly +4.5-+5.5 that they don't make anywhere else, which is prettty much absurd. Your hypothesis doesn't even explain why you would expect this to continue going forward.

Be so kind and compile the backdoor numbers for me first. We can go from there. Please include the halftime numbers as well.

As to the spread. I can assure you that of the approximately 1500 players on and around the field every NFL Sunday, the vast majority are aware of the spread, and certainly that number would play a far greater role in their minds than your prized push frequencies. You blindly (again) assume that subtleties could make no difference, so let's avoid the subtlety and ask a simple question: do you think a 21 pt HF would have the same respect for an opponent as a 1 pt HF? Would both inspire the same level of intensity? If your answer is no, then, whether you like it or not, the door is open to greater subtlety. To what extent, I don't presume to know. It is an interesting question. The power of thought...

Do I think that athletes would concern themselves with 0.5 pt? No. But I have certainly seen 'rounding off' on the basketball court. It is rather common for NBA teams to try to protect a 10 point lead. The mental barrier in such instances is 10 pts; not 8, not 12. If you doubt this, try to remember how often you've heard coaches tell their players to get the deficit down to single digits...

A little further out on the limb. Let's say players use the spread to categorize teams by strength. If you were a player, how would you do that? Is it unrealistic to use 3, 7, 10, and 14? So the whole week you're preparing myself, as a player, to face either a 3, 7, 10, or 14 opponent. If indeed there is such a basic mental framework, without the small nuances, where would the 4 go? Where would the 6 go?

But first things first. Ball is in your court.

[tomcowley]

LOL, try postulating something that can explain 3.5/4 71%, 4.5-5.5 75%, 6/6.5 66% in a way that's predictive of the future, and if it doesn't sound completely retarded, I'll do your dirty work for you.

I don't even care if they DID backdoor cover a lot- I care if they will in the future, and if your theory can't explain why it would be predictive, it's of no use.

[Dark Horse]

I don't even care if they DID backdoor cover a lot- I care if they will in the future, and if your theory can't explain why it would be predictive, it's of no use.

I have no theory. I've been trying to help solve an interesting mystery with a hypothesis. Two very different things. But you don't care, because you already know everything. So I'm done wasting my time with you.

Back to reality. I don't give a rat's ass that your 7 pt teaser for 3.5 and 4 pt RD's doesn't work. I'll contend myself with the working subset, 16 years in the making, and let the blind luck work for me.

[tomcowley]

For the love of god, slam the alts on pinny next week then. Please.

[Dark Horse]

Your arrogance will not help you. But, please, don't take my word for it. Try it out to the max.

[NickTheGrip]

So I'm done wasting my time with you.

[Thremp]

I appreciate the feedback. I understand that some here must defend at all cost what it is they think they know. As to your semi-sect of enlightened minds. In light of your readily tossed insults and arrogance, it is amusing that you so willingly expose the limitations of your 'genius' by tossing 16 years of data you can't explain on the 'blind luck' pile. Is that the best you've got? To others. Please realize that the weakness of this math clan is that they all think the same way (with very few exceptions). This makes them entirely predictable. By exploring the questions they refuse to ask, they can be beaten rather easily. Obviously not every investigation is going to produce results, but some will. Do not let your thought processes be limited by these self-proclaimed experts.

wtf are you talking about? None of the comments you made apply to me in the least as I didn't talk about 16 years of data, my genius or anything else. You came up with a story that you could test. You didn't and instead posted some word vomit. Now you're pretending your story cannot be verified/unverified/proved wrong/etc etc. There is nothing wrong with being a free thinker. There is something wrong with being an idiot. You're confusing the two at a rapid speed.

[Dark Horse]

first post


Can always count on the math geeks to show up in numbers.

[Dark Horse]

wtf are you talking about? None of the comments you made apply to me in the least as I didn't talk about 16 years of data, my genius or anything else. You came up with a story that you could test. You didn't and instead posted some word vomit. Now you're pretending your story cannot be verified/unverified/proved wrong/etc etc. There is nothing wrong with being a free thinker. There is something wrong with being an idiot. You're confusing the two at a rapid speed.

The first part is true. I can test the 'story'. And perhaps I will indeed, in the future. At present it is not a priority. Obviously, it would be an extremely time consuming project. You test it. lol

I never said the hypothesis could not be verified. No idea where you get that. As to the word vomit, reread the thread. Including your own earlier comment.

Now, if you all don't mind, I'll go focus on things that are more interesting.

[tomcowley]

Your arrogance will not help you. But, please, don't take my word for it. Try it out to the max.

Believe me, I'd try it to the max more than once if anybody would take the other side.

[Pancho sanza]

What was KC +10.5 on pinnacles alternate high?

On a 3 team teaser paying 1.8, you are laying -244 so I assume Dark Horse is betting the piss out of these at pinnacle if they are less than -244?

[tomcowley]

It was -242 and never moved. Maybe next week, somebody can mortgage their mom's basement and create a market.

[Dark Horse]

What was KC +10.5 on pinnacles alternate high?

On a 3 team teaser paying 1.8, you are laying -244 so I assume Dark Horse is betting the piss out of these at pinnacle if they are less than -244?

I would very much welcome a betting exchange where we can all bet straight against each other, knowing exactly not only what but also who we are betting against. Why take from JJ when you can nail DJ? A question of honor among thieves.

[subs]

you guys are obviously smart and reading what you say is very interesting. its a shame/funny that things often get personal. DH is clearly smart enough to make money and is no statnerds.

i'm sure granchow has helped us all and is a shining light on how to behave on a public forum. how you treat others affects your own happiness. i can not prove this hypothesis but it seems to have been taught, by some of the very smartest people, throughout history.

[Dark Horse]

nm.

[wrongturn]

I am sure everybody here are winner in their own ways. Appreciate all constructive posts here. No need to bash each other.

[dimon]

guys, I will not get into the personal disussion here, I started the new thread about the upcomming weekend possible plays...come on in and share your insights

Teasers Discussion. Week of Oct. 24

[LegitBet]

Between dark horse and btc I have found a huge +EV in approach and wisdom
Thanks

[gameday10]

I see this discussion has got off course a little and I have read every page and have been will informed, but I see this is talking about NFL. What there be any value in using the 4.5-6 or 7-9 in cfb also?

[dimon]

I see this discussion has got off course a little and I have read every page and have been will informed, but I see this is talking about NFL. What there be any value in using the 4.5-6 or 7-9 in cfb also?

no...try not to tease a side in college ever....not a god idea

[subs]

only if the total is really really low - i think.

[Peregrine Stoop]

many thanks to shipit for the chart on betsizing on teasers and subs for bringing it over from 2p2

[subs]

^^^ my bad should have given him credit - can believe i did not.

sorry shipit. awesome chart and Well.

[PerpetualCzech]

In 2004 I did research on how the RD+4.5 to +6 had done historically.
I was interested in back testing this subset ... The analysis of the in-sample was encouraging. From 1994 to 2004 the subset
went 235-83-1 for 73.9%. ...

Fast forward to 2010 and the out-of-sample results for the last 5 years.
From 2005 to 2010 this subset has went 112-36-1 for 75.7%, or even better
than the in-sample study.

You are lying through your teeth. As you acknowledge here:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forum/messageview.cfm?catid=36&threadid=284484&FTVAR_MSGDBTABLE=&STARTPAGE=2

(bottom of page 2) you started betting these in 2003, not 2005.

Oh look, the teaser record in 03-04 sucked ass (56-37, 60.2%) What a shock.

[PerpetualCzech]

TomCowley is my hero

way to point out the alt spread stuff

This is probably annoying of me but I jsut can't help myself:

http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forum/messageview.cfm?catid=36&threadid=284484&FTVAR_MSGDBTABLE=

[RickySteve]

Okay, just like the GodFather2 (YOU DREW ME BACK IN) to answer your post.

The quote you mangled was from Godfather Part III,

[durito]

Tenn +10.5 -234
Minn +10.5 -220

[tomcowley]

So I'm a slow pony beating a dead horse?

[PerpetualCzech]

Tenn +10.5 -234
Minn +10.5 -220

Value.

[notsosharp]

this interesting stuff

[Peregrine Stoop]

no amount of help to teasers today