However, this is not the point I came here to make. This is rather a rare occurrence of a fallacy that exists in many fields and I feel I can help some of the younger smart guns as I feel I have been there. This post is somewhat of a cross over to the Politics forum I used to post to. Here is a little reference. When I was young, I was a hard core Marxist (and I am a numbers guy as well). I was studying a lot of books on economics and at first I was fascinated how good and beautiful the Marxist theory was. That was until I realized that the theory is inapplicable to the reality and therefore must fail (what it did) and as such it is just false and must be abandoned.
Here is the point. When I was young I used to think more within a theoretical frame as my life experience was not that big and I lived in the world of ideas. Once I get older I realized how some of those ideas were plain wrong. Likely, if I was in my early twenties, I would be making a similar argument as you did. While you numbers are wrong your sentiment is "right", there are billions to make in sportsbetting. The only problem with sportsbetting is that the market is not deep enough to oblige. Similar to liberal beliefs, you are going to run out of other people's money.
I am sorry about a long and not a very coherent rant. I am drunk and, if you have not noticed, english is not even my second language. I just want to help some of the younger guys who hang out here and have brains to get some perspective and hopefully grow up sooner than later.