To give him more credit, though, the college injury info is very good.
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To give him more credit, though, the college injury info is very good.Comment -
I think what this all comes down to is "will bookmaker really **** with me by delaying my wagers in any way?" If yes, I'm screwed. If no, I'll make around 40k between cbb and football totals. I respect your opinion PokerJoe and in an odd way I want to believe you, but how could I tell if RAS's edge is gone? Would the books not move their lines as much? Would they move them back after all tge heavy action settles?Comment -
Nobody can answer this question there is only 1 way to find out and that is to see what Bookmaker does.
I would not count on winning 40k nothing is for sure when gambling.
Easiest way to know if they have lost their edge will be when you lose 40k instead of winning 40k.Comment -
Nothing in sports betting should be referred to as printing money, and as is stated on our order page, the service is not for everyone. A good deal of time (being around for releases) and/or resources (outs, etc) must be dedicated to optimize results, and you must wager a minimum amount per game ($250+) to justify the cost of the service. For the right people, it has and can be a great opportunity, but for others it has and can be more of a challenge.
Also stated on our order page is that past results are no guarantee of future results. This is true as markets can change drastically from year to year. With that said, we have hit 60.80% over 620 CBB total plays the past 3 seasons, and last year we had our highest win rate yet (62.74% on 204 plays) despite releasing the bulk of our totals after January 1st.
We've focused a lot more on CFB totals in recent seasons and have gone 50-24 (67.56%) with an average CLV of +2.94 the past 3 years, but that is obviously a much smaller sample size as we end coverage after the first 8 weeks.
The cost of the service remains fairly competitive for industry standards and we started a second half thread at the top of our forum in May of 2009 that has gone 112-76 (59.57%) for no extra charge. This is a great way for smaller players to get involved with the service without absorbing a subscription fee.
Hope that helps.
EdwardOther than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
Hey thanks for posting Edward. Do you have any insight about this whole Bookmaker thing? Has anyone ever told you that they delayed their bets on your games?Comment -
I would not recommend using Bookmaker for RAS plays.
Everyone has an account there so it is always going to be very competitive to get the best line and they are known for using countermeasures (game has already started, etc.)
I have heard of people having success there from time to time, but I would guess that the level of difficulty is high and results would not be consistent.Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
Dr. Bob had a problem years ago where the books were subscribing to his service and moving lines as soon as he released his plays making it nearly impossible for his subscribers to get down on his plays.
I do not follow RAS but I do hear good things about them and if books are not already counter acting against them it is only a matter of time before they do and you may end up paying for 200 plays that you can only get down on 60. If the books don't counteract you may have a successful season but I would not bank on it.
Jumping on the band wagon of a service that has been very successful over 3 years and is attracting a lot of followers is a gamble itself.Comment -
Another thing in Edward's favor: he keeps a decent forum presence, LOL.
I'm not knocking him; he's never given anyone reason to do that, afaik.
I do think his release's effect on the market is getting increasingly problematic for his followers. But to each his own. Because I bet into the overnights, his line moves don't affect me, so I can wish you guys well.Comment -
Edward, where should I bet?TheGreek makes you phone in wagers so there's no way that will work, I can't use pinnacle because I'm in the US, and all other books will ban me for betting your games because they are rec books. Advice?Comment -
This is a question I get asked quite often. Unfortunately, if I recommended a specific sportsbook and/or method on a public forum or even privately to individual clients, that sportsbook/method would not be good for long. Ultimately, you have to do your own investigating and experimenting with different sportsbooks and methods to find a solution that works for you.
We make no effort to hide the fact that it is difficult to bet RAS plays before line movement, but there is a big difference between difficult and impossible. Based on customer feedback I have received, it certainly is not impossible.Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
Bookmaker/CRIS is pretty fast at giving out "warnings" for betting steam. One of the people with whom I frequently collaborate was subscribed to Stanford Wong's tout site years ago and got one of those warnings for betting overnight CBB sides, and Wong's site didn't even have that great of a record at the time.Comment -
Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
Jesus Christ! So basically rec books will kick you out and so called pro action books will ummmm....also kick you out or at least limit you or delay your wagers purposefully. So, it's impossible to win.Comment -
There is a big difference between difficult and impossible. Most would agree that it is difficult to win betting sports in general, but few would say it is impossible. The same goes for following RAS.Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
But my point is that I CAN NOT get RAS bets down anywhere. That means $0.Comment -
As I said in a previous post, everyone's situation is different. You have to do your own investigating and experimenting with different sportsbooks and methods to find a solution that works for you. If you are not willing to do that, then the service probably is not for you.
No one is going to give away too much on a public forum.Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
RAS is not impressive in WNBA.
About NCAA, don't think RAS Totals are like printing money. Many times, you won't be able to pick best line since lines move very fast.Last edited by Sawyer; 08-13-10, 11:43 AM.Comment -
I'd stick to sawyer's NBA system's total. Plays of 7* and over Lol. Can't wait for NBA!Comment -
Nothing is guaranteed...even the best have losing seasons....proceed with caution
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Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
+18 units in 2008 is good but -2.6 Units in 2009 and +3.3 Units in 2010 is not very impressive in my opinion..Comment -
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I can't say this enough: no one can say Edward is guilty of scam tout tactics like cold-calling, sales pitches, or fudging his record. His behaviour in this biz has been exemplary.
BUT:
You have to subtract, from the units his service has won in the past:
1) the cost of the service, in units. Especially considering that in small markets like CBB totals and WNBA, your max bet might be pretty damn small.
2) the cost, in units, of the difference between the line when his plays are given out and the line you actually get down at. This could really be substantial, more this year than even last BECAUSE last year was so successful for him.
3) the cost, in the long run, of irritating your books to the point of possibly being booted or limited, because you're using the service. IOW, you need to consider all the money you WON'T be allowed to win in the future from certain books in other sports BECAUSE of the money you win using RAS in this sport.
Good books don't mind too much if you beat them if YOU beat them. But if you're chasing steam, then you are, in effect if not in fact, part of a group of guys who are essentially circumventing limits. That latter point is the big problem books have with steam players: if a book is willing to take a dime hit on a CBB total, but gets, say, 20 guys betting that dime at once, then the book essentially is suffering 20x it's desired limit risk, and this makes them miserable, and they start booting or stalling those 20 guys. And they aren't going to care (because they aren't going to be able to tell) if those 20 guys are really one guy betting through 20 accounts, 20 guys merely reacting to the DB screen, 20 guys working together, or whatever. All you need to know is that you don't want to be identified with that 20 if you plan on making money off this book in the long run.
4) the potential, if not probability, of the cost of the regression to the mean most likely waiting to bite RAS on the ass (no offense, Edward). The CBB totals win rate is TOO high. Think that doesn't make sense, to say that a win rate is too high?
If his edge really is as high as his win rate has been, then he's betting wrong. He's leaving way too much money on the table by not betting the smaller edge wagers that the same system should be spitting out. Edges come on a continuum.
If his edge isn't as high as his win rate has been, then, yeah, there's some serious regression to the mean waiting in the dark here.
But it's so true that I can't say this enough, that I'm going to say it again: no one can say Edward is guilty of scam tout tactics like cold-calling, sales pitches, or fudging his record. His behaviour in this biz has been exemplary.
I'm just saying that there are a lot of variables to plug into the calculation of whether using his service is going to be +EV for you in the long run. It's far more complicated than "Yee haw, look at that record!"Comment -
What about how he frontruns his clients and says he's free to this at any point? He also claims his past record is not indicative of his future record (nor would he back this claim with dollars).
If I release plays to someone else who gives me a cut of net wins, am I "betting my own plays" or did I just steal from my tout customers by selling touts on a tiered scale?
You decide.Comment -
Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
I definitely agree with points #2 and #3 as fair criticisms of the service. Finding a sustainable solution that enables you to place wagers before line movement is the biggest challenge of using the service, and the biggest challenge for us as to how/if we structure and run the service in the future.
As for point 1, you do have to wager a minimum amount per wager ($250 or more) to justify the cost of the service, but no one should have an issue finding limits of at least $500 on anything we release, and our pricing has remained relatively fair.
As for point 4, we actually increased our win rate and volume last year despite releasing the majority of our CBB total plays post January 1st when it is much more difficult to win than in Nov-Dec. We have plenty of quality opinions on games that are not released, but when running a public service that is catering to a large audience of many different types of bettors, releasing 10-20 games per day is probably not the best idea. Of course past results are no guarantee of future results, we state this right on our order page, but we have clearly demonstrated edges in the markets we participate in.Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
No one outside of our team of three knows our plays before they are released.
Every play that is released is graded with a conservative widely available line at release time. By conservative, I mean that if a line has an average of -5.25, we will use -5.5 on the favorite, and +5.0 on the dog.
All of our records reflect this standard. There isn't anyone in the industry who has a higher standard.Other than RAS, I know of no way to just "join" a syndicate (and yes, obv, I'm labelling RAS a kind of a syndicate; it's a publicly available one). -PokerJoe Oct 2010Comment -
Thremp, give it up and don't re-hash this garbage... Would you rather pay for a service that doesn't have the confidence to bet their own releases?
Don't buy RAS if you don't want it... but don't clutter up a thread with your obvious bias either.
I'm sure there are plenty of subscribers who were happy with RAS's performance over the past twelve months.Comment
