Show Me The Odds

[lasker]

Yes, well, I happen to think that ShowMeTheOdds is a great service. Great bang for your buck, especially because it's free!

[rise]

my home computer is down what odds do they show from Vegas thanks ?

[statnerds]

?? what's with the edits? did Statnerds report Thremp for abusive language? I realize Justin is probably subscribed to this thread, but I read the post, laughed, and moved on. I don't even remember it being that abusive... just a lot of *******.

What's even more puzzling is the edit on TomCowley. Justin edits out the sacastic reference that Thremp doesn't know what he's talking about? Is this a preemptive move in case Thremp takes Cowley literally and gets offended?

What's the point of a forum if you can't have free speech?

i have never, nor will i ever, report any poster. i will never be offended by language or insults. big boy and all of that.

i have received one infraction and one warning during my short stay at SBR, so still learning where the line is.

just trying to ask some honest questions and get honest replies.

why is asking questions met with such hostility?

[HoulihansTX]

my home computer is down what odds do they show from Vegas thanks ?

All major sportbooks.

The main one is the Hilton, which has odds comparable to offshore.

[losturmarbles]

why is asking questions met with such hostility?

probably because you keep rejecting the answers with your own unproven assumptions.

[HoulihansTX]

This thread looks like it belongs in Players Talk.

[Justin7]

What's the point of a forum if you can't have free speech?

If you want to freely attack or insult other posters, keep it in PZ. If you want to softly attack other posers, you can use PT. I'd like to keep the Think Tank focused on serious topics, and insulting other posters detracts from that.

[losturmarbles]

If you want to freely attack or insult other posters, keep it in PZ. If you want to softly attack other posers, you can use PT. I'd like to keep the Think Tank focused on serious topics, and insulting other posters detracts from that.

If it's about keeping within the subjective bounds of one forum to another, then wouldn't the best approach as a moderator be to move the errant content to the appropriate forum instead of editing individual posts?

[Justin7]

If it's about keeping within the subjective bounds of one forum to another, then wouldn't the best approach as a moderator be to move the errant content to the appropriate forum instead of editing individual posts?

Sometimes I move content, sometimes I delete it. Moderating threads is ancillary though -- my primary focus at SBR is getting players paid, policing sportsbooks, and helping players understand sport betting concepts better.

[Data]

If you want to softly attack other posers, you can use PT.

I'd rather stay here...

[Justin7]

Thanks, Data. I needed that.

[wrongturn]

The odds service certainly gets free publicity in this thread. I may try it.

[HoulihansTX]

Just posting to get my free daily points

[statnerds]

Yes, well, I happen to think that ShowMeTheOdds is a great service. Great bang for your buck, especially because it's free!

got it about 2 weeks ago. first time that chick's voice said 'final' scared the crap out of me. was unawares of the speech enabled software thing.

as for it being free, the market sets the price.

[statnerds]

probably because you keep rejecting the answers with your own unproven assumptions.

i apologize if unorthodox approaches led discussions down untrodden paths.

but "because i said so" should never be an acceptable answer. there are fundamentals that build a gambling strategy.

my most basic are:

1. the market is efficient. nearly every shred of information about a contest that exists is factored into the line by the 1,000s upon 1,000s of bettors as well as the historical data the book operates under. so someone telling me the market is wrong 12 times a day runs counter to that.

2. regardless of the sport, a line moving against you represents lost value.

that is the crux of my problem here. thread after thread on SBR talks about players getting limits or booted, or the importance of a half point move on a line, or how quickly books move lines, but then we have a strategy hyped by many that would somehow circumvent limits, bootings, line movements.

one final question that will go unanswered:

if the posted record for Don Best steam is accurate, what would be the variance (estimated) for the average subscriber, and how much would this adversely affect sub's profit margin?

[Thremp]

Do you even realize Donbest is just a repository of data (which you refused to look at for months despite my indications it wa there) that has arbitrary standards for what is "steam"? Virtually no one who utilizes this strategy uses Donbest.

[bztips]

It's obvious that statsnerd must have an academic econ background (so do I), which has taught him the mantra that "the market is efficient". While I generally agree with that, one problem with that view (as others have already stated) as it applies to sports betting is that each contest each day is its own little market (in fact there are multiple markets for each contest given the number of betting options); moreover, there are multiple prices out there (not just a single price) via different books. So it's not surprising (to me, anyway) that some of those markets are probably pretty thin and not always instantaneously efficient -- why is that so hard for SN to grasp?

Brings to mind the old joke where someone says "Look, there's a $20 bill on the ground!" And the economist's response is "That's impossible; if there was, someone would have picked it up by now." While I agree that it's very difficult to systematically make money looking for these $20 bills, the opportunities do exist -- it's just hard to find them.

My 2 cents.

[Thremp]

There are also structures in place to prevent efficiency. Limits/selective clientele/etc etc

So while something can be true in general, it does not have to exist in the specific.

[Raleigh77]

this thread has run its course

[CrimsonQueen]

I'll be checking out Show Me The Odds... thanks for the free heads up

[dinaro7]

if u dont like it go some where else yesterday i fuked up and put over and they would not let me change it ii would have hit for about 80 ptss

[That Foreign Guy]

Betting markets are at their best (in terms of efficiency, worst for the smart gambler) weak form efficient. The most efficient markets tend to be the most liquid ones.

The reason different bookies have different prices can be partially explained by lag in reacting to information (since closing lines tend to be more uniform than openers from what I see), and partially explained by different utility curves (that's the difference between a traditional balanced book or a side taking one and their reactions to the risk they've already accepted).

Does anyone believe in strong form efficiency outside of econ departments?

[slickeddie]

It keeps telling me "Your account has expired". What could be the problem here? Thanks.

[rise]

it just went to a pay service you have to make a deposit at a sportsbooks of there choice

[statnerds]

Post #18: DonBest has a feature that does this IIRC. Its a massive winner.
Statnerds is absurdly wrong here on virtually every point.

Post #30: DonBest has a service that basically just tracks "steam plays", which has won at a steady clip for many moons back when it was last discussed.
Post #61: You deny I provided data. Which part do I not suffice that 1) DonBest does not put out steam bets or 2) that they do not win?

Post #152: Sigh. You still refuse the existence of DonBest. Awesome.

Post #155: What do you want data wise? And why would I have any incentive to provide it? I know I'm correct, everyone else knows I'm correct. Yet you magically want evidence that chasing steam (Despite the litany of logical arguments on why its successful) works. Again, did you track the win percentage of betting "steam plays" at Donbest? Or are you denying that these have ever existed...?

Do you even realize Donbest is just a repository of data (which you refused to look at for months despite my indications it wa there) that has arbitrary standards for what is "steam"? Virtually no one who utilizes this strategy uses Donbest.

so from Feb 14th, 2010 until July 23rd, 2010, Donbest was the gold standard?



and now they are not?

and quickly, the market sets the price for DB Service. if no one paid $5K/yr, it would cost $5K. if people refused $4K or $3K per year, the price would drop to a level that consumers agree is a fair price to pay for such a service. anyway, point of that is this: even if the people that utilize this strategy don't use this strategy, the 1,000s of DB subs do. that just adds to the people tryin to get that stale number. like a 10 lane highway stacked with cars fast approaching a 2 lane tunnel, a shit load of motorists are getting left behind.

[djiddish98]

that just adds to the people tryin to get that stale number. like a 10 lane highway stacked with cars fast approaching a 2 lane tunnel, a shit load of motorists are getting left behind.

Can anyone more involved than I am confirm or deny the claim that most slow moving sportsbooks do not automatically update their lines based on the incoming money?

Can anyone confirm or deny the claim that most slow moving sportsbooks have an employee that is responsible for managing the lines?

[HoulihansTX]

It keeps telling me "Your account has expired". What could be the problem here? Thanks.

it just went to a pay service you have to make a deposit at a sportsbooks of there choice

Use the password SMTO

username SMTO

[slickeddie]

Thanks Rise and Houlihans.

[Thremp]

so from Feb 14th, 2010 until July 23rd, 2010, Donbest was the gold standard? and now they are not? and quickly, the market sets the price for DB Service. if no one paid $5K/yr, it would cost $5K. if people refused $4K or $3K per year, the price would drop to a level that consumers agree is a fair price to pay for such a service. anyway, point of that is this: even if the people that utilize this strategy don't use this strategy, the 1,000s of DB subs do. that just adds to the people tryin to get that stale number. like a 10 lane highway stacked with cars fast approaching a 2 lane tunnel, a shit load of motorists are getting left behind.

Please stop the strawmen. I never said they were the "gold standard". They have a wealth of data and evidence that you denied for months and months because you're a troll. Now you seem to understand they exist.

You don't understand who subscribes to Donbest or how quickly lines move.

[That Foreign Guy]

Can anyone more involved than I am confirm or deny the claim that most slow moving sportsbooks do not automatically update their lines based on the incoming money? Can anyone confirm or deny the claim that most slow moving sportsbooks have an employee that is responsible for managing the lines?

Even if they have software that automatically updates lines based on incoming money if the site is small they might not have had any money coming in yet so the only way they'd know to move their lines would be to monitor their rivals.

[statnerds]

Please stop the strawmen. I never said they were the "gold standard". They have a wealth of data and evidence that you denied for months and months because you're a troll. Now you seem to understand they exist.

You don't understand who subscribes to Donbest or how quickly lines move.

do the insults really help make your case?

for months and months you held up DB as proof of chasing steam and that it works, but then suddenly after numbers were posted with questions about variance, you changed to DB is unreliable and no one uses it.

i just can't understand why you would advise everyone reading this thread to refer to DB but then tell them not to do it.

[ForgetWallStreet]

i just can't understand why you would advise everyone reading this thread to refer to DB but then tell them not to do it.

Because not everyone needs to pay 5K to chase steam effectively.

[CrimsonQueen]

I don't know what Show Me can do that SBR can't do, other then perhaps check out the lines in vegas casinos... but I don't really care about vegas casinos...

[Thremp]

I've given out so much free information in this thread to people entirely undeserving. Thankfully I can rest easy that they'll never connect the dots so I won't be saddened that I helped someone I find distasteful enrich themselves.

[Thremp]

do the insults really help make your case? for months and months you held up DB as proof of chasing steam and that it works, but then suddenly after numbers were posted with questions about variance, you changed to DB is unreliable and no one uses it. i just can't understand why you would advise everyone reading this thread to refer to DB but then tell them not to do it.

I have never once taken this position. Please stop with the straw men.