Show Me The Odds

**durito** · 02-24-10, 12:36 PM

Yes to both.

Also, I'd suggest just hitting one play per day per book. Grabbing 4-5 totals within 15 minutes for the max all of which moved 3pts 10 seconds later is gonna draw attention from any book. Spread it around a bit and try to stay under their radar. That's my best guess.

**smitch124** · 02-24-10, 12:41 PM

What about sacrificing a little EV by taking a middle on every 3 or 4 of the totals, betting the RAS side early at a book sometimes and against the RAS side late at that same book (while betting early at a different book on that bet) another time?

**statnerds** · 02-25-10, 10:27 AM

okay guys, i've been going over the data you posted showing which lines moved, the ones you played and the results

oh wait

you didn't post shit

**Thremp** · 02-25-10, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

okay guys, i've been going over the data you posted showing which lines moved, the ones you played and the results oh wait you didn't post shit

Can you respond to my questions?

**SRBI** · 03-11-10, 01:04 PM

Sweet little program IMO. I don't know much about it though - can anyone confirm the validity of this software?

**superjeff24** · 03-20-10, 11:29 PM

for the people that use these monthly services: 1) how much do you pay 2) what benefits are offered by the product used and 3) are there alternatives that are similar but free, and if so, what do the monthly pay sites offer that attracts you to them?

**jessetopolski** · 04-05-10, 01:58 AM

stay away they are all a joke

**JayTrotter** · 04-05-10, 03:26 AM

I believe that line moves are like everything else... they mean different things at different times.

For instance, take the line moves in NBA late season... Who cares about the 78th game of the season between Minnesota and Memphis??? a game you have to pay the players to even show up to.. smart money. Where there is little interest or knowledge smart money will be there pressing the advantage....

For contrast, the line moves in college football are a little cloudier, because people actually like to watch that sport, and more people bet on it.. This time some money could be from the new rich, and some could be from syndicates trying to push the line up so that they can play the other side, some could be from people tailing Dr. Bob, and some could just be good old fashion degenerates. Or the line could move, because someone that the bookie knows is sharp bet on one side or the other. They book to faces, aka the bookies know the 97% who lose and the 3% who win..

Just because some one has a lot of money on the game doesn't make him sharp.
and just because some one has a little money on the game doesn't mean he is a sucker..

The best way to make anyone do anything you want them to do is to complement their intelligence..

If you can decipher where the habitual losers and consistent winners are on a game, you will hit over 55%... without knowing the mascots..

**statnerds** · 04-05-10, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by JayTrotter

This time some money could be from the new rich, and some could be from syndicates trying to push the line up so that they can play the other side, some could be from people tailing Dr. Bob, and some could just be good old fashion degenerates. Or the line could move, because someone that the bookie knows is sharp bet on one side or the other. They book to faces, aka the bookies know the 97% who lose and the 3% who win..

Just because some one has a lot of money on the game doesn't make him sharp.
and just because some one has a little money on the game doesn't mean he is a sucker..

solid

i must warn you that one thing some folks on here will not tolerate is a well thought out, logical argument.

the people moving the lines aren't hitting 60%. if they were...limits!!!

**statnerds** · 04-05-10, 09:43 AM

7 months and not one shred of data

wow

**Thremp** · 04-05-10, 11:35 AM

Why do you keep ignoring what I'm saying?

Are you just that ****ing stupid?

**sam in so cal** · 04-06-10, 02:28 PM

is there any way of knowing what line service my book (a PPH) is using?

**HoulihansTX** · 05-22-10, 01:13 AM

Show me the Odds has recently updated their service. They added more books, and options.

Also they have added Las Vegas sportsbooks, which is nice not having the scurry the internet to find those lines.

Its worth a download for those looking to watch,see, and know the lines of potential bets.

Add the fact its free. So nothing to lose. Also they no longer are late on the lines moves. Up to date every time Pinny/ Greek/ Matchy etc move their lines.

**Hybris** · 07-05-10, 09:52 AM

Sorry to bump this but is this US only? I cant try out this service, I get stuck on login screen. I have turned my firewall off but it doesnt work. Anyone that can help me out? Sorry if its totaly OT.

**Hybris** · 07-06-10, 09:31 AM

Nvm my post, I´m stupid i put in in the win systems folder for some odd reason..works fine and I like it so far..

**SpiderMonkey** · 07-06-10, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Show me the Odds has recently updated their service. They added more books, and options.

Also they have added Las Vegas sportsbooks, which is nice not having the scurry the internet to find those lines.

Its worth a download for those looking to watch,see, and know the lines of potential bets.

Add the fact its free. So nothing to lose. Also they no longer are late on the lines moves. Up to date every time Pinny/ Greek/ Matchy etc move their lines.

Just set this up - I like it.

**rise** · 07-06-10, 08:45 PM

thanks for info will download and try it out allways like to compare

**tbaer** · 07-07-10, 12:02 PM

its going pay in a couple of weeks

**Jrod124** · 07-07-10, 12:48 PM

2 weeks

**empty** · 07-19-10, 10:00 AM

What is the differnce in color for lines? blue black red yellow purple green? they are called takeback colors but no explanation of what they mean.

**statnerds** · 07-19-10, 01:54 PM

An honest question for debate.

So we have several posts in this thread alone referring to Books imposing severe limits or even booting people. Why are there no limits placed on the bettors causing the line moves?

**Thremp** · 07-19-10, 02:39 PM

First establish that there aren't limits placed on them.

**statnerds** · 07-19-10, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

First establish that there aren't limits placed on them.

fine, let's proceed with the theory that there are not limits placed on them.

that begs the question, just questions for debate you mind you, why would they limit small time squares like myself to $50 (as 5Dimes did), but not limit players that bet in the $$$thousands$$$$ per game?

who has the edge on -105, -110 and so on?

**Thremp** · 07-19-10, 04:08 PM

Do you watch line movements? Do they move like when normal folks place bets or do they move across the board in one fell swoop?

Why do you think this is?

**statnerds** · 07-19-10, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

Do you watch line movements? Do they move like when normal folks place bets or do they move across the board in one fell swoop?

Why do you think this is?

if it were a move across the board i would assume 1 of 2 things.

a respected book that is rumored to be steep in Sharp Players adjusted a line and then all the other books moved to mitigate exposure

or

a well respected Capper with a devout following, a la Dr Bob or RAS, released a play and books moved the number ahead of the wagers.

i have read Alan Boston and he has admitted to head feints, placing a smaller wager on one side to get the public moving the line and he would bet 3X the original wager on the other side with the added value he wanted. so sometimes i guess the amount is less important than the source.

**Thremp** · 07-19-10, 05:59 PM

So there are no syndicates?

**statnerds** · 07-19-10, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

So there are no syndicates?

most certainly are, but the fukkers are never hiring.

**durito** · 07-19-10, 06:01 PM

They aren't hiring idiots that's for sure.

**Thremp** · 07-19-10, 11:55 PM

So you believe most across the board moves are... tout releases? Does the name Walters mean anything to you?

**statnerds** · 07-20-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by Thremp

So you believe most across the board moves are... tout releases? Does the name Walters mean anything to you?

i believe my first statement was a book with respected clientele moves a line (which leaves the reader to assume a syndicate or an established Sharp bettor, i should have been more clear) and the market reacts.

Billy is an awesome example to explain to people how amazing 58% is and how many millions of dollars can be made hitting at such a high rate. but people still think 60% long term is attainable, which it is not. anything at 55% is amazing. anyone claiming they can hit 60% or higher over the course of thousands of plays is lying.

of course the word variance would have no meaning on a discussion involving long term betting.

so now if we are crediting line moves to syndicate, we must determine which books have higher limits? the logic being that these syndicates will make their biggest plays at books with the highest limits?

my only problem with following that line of logic again goes back to books limiting smaller players, but allowing syndicates and others to enjoy higher limits. i could be wrong, as i usually am, but seems the number one guiding principle for Sportsbooks is to limit risk and exposure. (actually that should be number two and number one should be providing a marketplace for the informed and uninformed to exchange funds by speculating on the outcome of specific events.) so i can't see why books would happily keep large limits open to certain players unless the book felt they had the edge long-term, which they do. i was up $234 the week 5Dimes put limits on my 5 cent MLB lines. so if my monthly wagers equal one bet of a syndicate, it makes no sense for books to accept those large wagers from people that could break the book.

i do not deny the existence of syndicates, far from it. nor do i doubt certain players and/or touts move lines. however, my only question on this matter comes back to if all this is true and there are some people/syndicates murdering the books, how come they never go out of business?

i attempted to write this as unassuming and neutral as possible. it has been enjoyable having a near-civil discussion with you.

**Thremp** · 07-21-10, 06:08 AM

How exactly does a sportsbook know who places a wager? (Hint: They don't.)

**statnerds** · 07-21-10, 07:18 AM

Originally posted by Thremp

How exactly does a sportsbook know who places a wager? (Hint: They don't.)

are we going cloak and dagger stuff now?

so syndicates have adapted and now use "electronic runners"? i can't imagine the software tracking capabilities of a sportsbook. but it would take weeks if not months before they could determine collusion, i would think. although a simple IP check might do it, depending on the source of the plays.

do books stick with their posted limits? i wonder how long it would take before a book determines a player wins too much and limit their wagers.

the main problem here is the secrecy with which syndicates are forced to operate. makes it impossible to know certain things.

**statnerds** · 07-21-10, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by durito

Said data is easy to be had. Compare the mean square error of the opening lines versus the closing lines.

alright then. before i collect this data, in an unbiased fashion, i will let you set the rules.

so go ahead, set the rules....

every game?

source for the opening line?

source for the closing line?

any preferred methodology?

please be precise in your laying down of the rules. i am giving you complete control over how i set up collection and utilization of the data.

**Thremp** · 07-21-10, 10:26 AM

Is betting a specific tout collusion then?

You do realize people do work for syndicates and/or speak with them? Its not like we just sit around all day complaining about getting limited and posting rampant conjecture on how we imagine the game works. Though it is fun to do that as well.

**Justin7** · 07-21-10, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

are we going cloak and dagger stuff now?

so syndicates have adapted and now use "electronic runners"?

Sportsbooks frequently get smashed by syndicates, and have no idea who hit them. They only know they were hit, and can ID accounts that hit them. When they limit those accounts (or start moving too quickly on bets from those accounts), the syndicates just create new accounts.