Show Me The Odds

[Thremp]

So that was a long way of saying, "No. I'm talking out of my ass."?

[LT Profits]

So that was a long way of saying, "No. I'm talking out of my ass."?

A little harsh there Thremp, roasthawg is a sharp handicapper with good numbers. I assume he beats the closing line often given his success, he just doesn't know it () because he doesn't track his stats in that manner. The fact that he has a +EV bet at some point of the day though should indicate that he beats closers fairly regularly. I think the volume he mentions lessens the chance that he has just been lucky.

[roasthawg]

So that was a long way of saying, "No. I'm talking out of my ass."?

Why, cause I don't track my success in beating closers? Like I said I've never had to as I'm not trying to beat the closer... only trying to pick a winner. I'm often forced to play closers or near-closers due to bankroll management... during football season I regularly have my whole roll out on early cfb games and gotta play near-closers on the late games and the NFL games. Nbd as far as I'm concerned... tracking the price I get vs the closer would obviously be easy to do, I'm just not interested since it will have zero impact on which games I play or when I play them. My winning percentage is far more important to me so that's all I track.

[Thremp]

A little harsh there Thremp, roasthawg is a sharp handicapper with good numbers. I assume he beats the closing line often given his success, he just doesn't know it () because he doesn't track his stats in that manner. The fact that he has a +EV bet at some point of the day though should indicate that he beats closers fairly regularly. I think the volume he mentions lessens the chance that he has just been lucky.

My whole point is that he can't really offer an opinion on the matter using his own anecdotal experience because he's unaware of what his anecdotal experience is. He's talking about his accuracy skeet shooting for the last 3 years when he's been wearing a blindfold.

He may actually be tracking right at EV based on closing price as efficient. Which would then render his arguments completely null and void, he may be several SDs from that estimate, which would bolster his argument. Regardless, he has no clue. So how can he draw ANY conclusions based on this?

[roasthawg]

A little harsh there Thremp, roasthawg is a sharp handicapper with good numbers. I assume he beats the closing line often given his success, he just doesn't know it () because he doesn't track his stats in that manner. The fact that he has a +EV bet at some point of the day though should indicate that he beats closers fairly regularly. I think the volume he mentions lessens the chance that he has just been lucky.

Thanks LT... I've posted enough picks on this site since I've been here to show that I'm not completely full of it I think. Nbd though... I'm not trying to build myself up, only trying to read responses as to why books set off numbers. I just don't buy the theory that they put out there best attempt at a 50% number from the gate... some of these numbers are pretty far off from what I can tell. There has to be another reason for this... the only two I can come up with is that they're more concerned with balanced action or they're trying to elicit bad bets from the public. The fact that books like bodog have separate lines for sharps and squares makes me think it's the latter.

[roasthawg]

My whole point is that he can't really offer an opinion on the matter using his own anecdotal experience because he's unaware of what his anecdotal experience is. He's talking about his accuracy skeet shooting for the last 3 years when he's been wearing a blindfold.

He may actually be tracking right at EV based on closing price as efficient. Which would then render his arguments completely null and void, he may be several SDs from that estimate, which would bolster his argument. Regardless, he has no clue. So how can he draw ANY conclusions based on this?

I'm basing it on win rate vs the line I get... not ability to beat the closer. I can play only closers and turn a profit... you obviously won't believe this though as you think the closing line is a true 50/50 or whatever. I prefer to play earlier lines but I play closers too.

Anyways, I guess your answer to my question is that the books try to set a 50/50 line in the beginning but they can't... the market can and does adjust it to a true 50/50 or at least closer to it. I disagree with the books not being able to set a more accurate line in the beginning but appreciate your input anyways.

[Thremp]

But you have literally NOTHING to support your viewpoint.

[FreeFall]

if you just give fools enough rope they will eventually hang themselves. i got bashed for suggesting the value of selling points on NFL games by several of the same posters bashing me in this thread. that thread the bashing was based on my lack of knowledge on the extreme value of a half point.

but yet here we have the same people saying how wonderful it is to chase line movements?

hmmm. seems those two ideas are contradictory in nature. you are reacting after the line has moved. by definition you have already lost value. the further the line moves from the number, the more value you are losing while still laying -110. you cannot have it both ways. either it is wise and profitable to beat the closing line or it is more profitable to bet after the line has been steamed and you miss out on the value left behind. you can't preach the importance of a half point on a line and then turn around and say it is okay to place a bet after the line has moved 1 or 2 points. please take a position and stand by it. furthermore, in this scenario, to maximize value you would need to get the bet in as quickly as possible once the line begins to move. how are you going to determine the source of the move in a limited amount of time? sharp money? whale? injury report? sharps starting a small move to get a better line on the other side?

there is no easy recipe for success. there are no shortcuts.

i can save you tons of money and time. watch the CBB Totals between 5:30 and 6:30 cause RAS is going to move those fukkers.

this argument will never end because your side will NEVER produce DATA.

I may be getting off topic here but;

1. Are you say that if we took every spread on the board for the day and did this for 30 days, You'd give me a whole point off assuming it moved from the opener? Thus allowing me to bet a point cheaper on every game for the same market price, because after all it doesn't matter according to you.

2. Don't tell us we don't produce DATA when you yourself have blabbered the most in this entire thread with zero Data.


Yes I'm grumpy

[roasthawg]

But you have literally NOTHING to support your viewpoint.

Ask yourself this... why are exchange lines sharper than any of the big books? The amateur lines makers at the exchanges can clearly spot which side of the line the value is on. Maybe that's at least SOMETHING to support my viewpoint... if amateurs can figure out where the value is no doubt the books can to with all of their resources.

[donjuan]

Ask yourself this... why are exchange lines sharper than any of the big books? The amateur lines makers at the exchanges can clearly spot which side of the line the value is on. Maybe that's at least SOMETHING to support my viewpoint... if amateurs can figure out where the value is no doubt the books can to with all of their resources.

Um, what? They're sharper, and only when there is decent liquidity, because the juice on the markets is lower. Also your assumption that "amateurs" are making the markets at the exchanges is LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

[roasthawg]

Um, what? They're sharper, and only when there is decent liquidity, because the juice on the markets is lower. Also your assumption that "amateurs" are making the markets at the exchanges is LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

Lol at your interpretation of the word "sharper"... I'm not talking about the juice, I'm talking about the "true line"... the no-vig line. The exchanges outperform the big books.

[Thremp]

Could you point out any examples where Pinnacle/Matchbook differ significantly? (More than a few cents or for a few minutes)

[roasthawg]

Could you point out any examples where Pinnacle/Matchbook differ significantly? (More than a few cents or for a few minutes)

It doesn't have to be a significant difference... just chart the no-vig lines on each and over time you'll see that MB is "sharper" than Pinny.

[donjuan]

Lol at your interpretation of the word "sharper"... I'm not talking about the juice, I'm talking about the "true line"... the no-vig line. The exchanges outperform the big books.

LOL at your reading comprehension. The sharpest lines are always going to be the ones with the best combination of low vig and high limits.

[roasthawg]

LOL at your reading comprehension. The sharpest lines are always going to be the ones with the best combination of low vig and high limits.

I'm talking about comparing the no-vig lines of the different books to see who's are the sharpest... using the actual results of the game to judge. Not worried about limits/vig... only the end result.

[Thremp]

I'm talking about comparing the no-vig lines of the different books to see who's are the sharpest... using the actual results of the game to judge. Not worried about limits/vig... only the end result.

How would you know this, do you chart closers?

[donjuan]

I'm talking about comparing the no-vig lines of the different books to see who's are the sharpest... using the actual results of the game to judge. Not worried about limits/vig... only the end result.

I'm explaining to you why this is. I realize you have no respect for any market forces or the reasons behind anything. However, if tomorrow Pinny went to -101/-101 with 100k limits on everything, do you think Matchbook would be sharper with the same level of liquidity and fees?

[roasthawg]

How would you know this, do you chart closers?

You can get closers from anywhere... the only charting you might have to do is matchbook's closers. I don't actively chart this but I did some stuff with market prices awhile back and found that matchbook's lines were far and away the sharpest. I'm obviously assuming that they still are.

[roasthawg]

I'm explaining to you why this is. I realize you have no respect for any market forces or the reasons behind anything. However, if tomorrow Pinny went to -101/-101 with 100k limits on everything, do you think Matchbook would be sharper with the same level of liquidity and fees?

I understand your point that MB has to be sharper because of lower vig but that doesn't really explain away what I'm talking about here. Here's a quick example... Atl/Pho tomorrow is +3.5 -106/-111 (no-vig = +/-102.2) at MB and +3.5 -103/-107 (no-vig = +/-101.9) at Pinny. Pinny has the lower vig but MB's is the sharper line imo.

[Thremp]

Are you insane?

[durito]

Huh.

Matchbook prices are complete worthless in this context 24 hours before a game.

[roasthawg]

Huh.

Matchbook prices are complete worthless in this context 24 hours before a game.

Even early matchbook lines are pretty sharp from what I've seen. I'm not gonna argue this too much because I haven't done a bunch of research on it but when I followed it mb was the sharpest.

[20Four7]

Um, what? They're sharper, and only when there is decent liquidity, because the juice on the markets is lower. Also your assumption that "amateurs" are making the markets at the exchanges is LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

The amateurs are accepting the offers. The sharper players are making the markets.

I may find 2 or 3 NCAAB that I feel are off...... but it's funny because if I max bet them int he middle of the night (like right now) pinny will move them for a stupid 250 dollar bet.... I can bet 2K on an NFL game 3 days before and nothing will move. The market makes the number and the market is smarter than the 1 or 2 guys that makes the opening number.

[20Four7]

Huh.

Matchbook prices are complete worthless in this context 24 hours before a game.

Not completely because there are the few and the unworthy that will post a stupid price on a game and go to sleep. you need to scoop them up. Unfortunately they are rarely more than 200.

[Thremp]

Happy meals of EV are "completely useless". It isn't meant literally.

[statnerds]

But you have literally NOTHING to support your viewpoint.

would this statement make you the pot or the kettle?

man you guys are exhausting.

[donjuan]

would this statement make you the pot or the kettle?

man you guys are exhausting.

It must get exhausting when you literally have no idea what you are talking about.

[Thremp]

would this statement make you the pot or the kettle? man you guys are exhausting.

Could you explain which part you disagree with again: 1) the existence of said bets 2) the fact they win.

Thanks!

[Peep]

I would take up poor beleaguard statnerds position to give him a break here, since I don't bother chasing steam either. But I think it I would find it to be a position as difficult to defend as he is, since I don't know either. Just because I don't do something doesn't even barely suggest it can't be done.

One thing that will piss a book off even faster than chasing steam is hitting a number just before it steams on Don Best. They REALLY don't like that!

[Edward-RAS]

Bet them before the move and you will do quite well. You will also get kicked out of every book there is.

This is not an entirely fair statement. It is true that playing RAS totals can risk you getting limited (more likely) or even booted (less likely) at certain sportsbooks, but there are many, many people who exist just fine playing RAS totals at various books.

[Thremp]

Delayed is the infinitely more likely scenario and the same as booted wrt playing RAS totals.

[durito]

This is not an entirely fair statement. It is true that playing RAS totals can risk you getting limited (more likely) or even booted (less likely) at certain sportsbooks, but there are many, many people who exist just fine playing RAS totals at various books.

This is not an entirely fair statement. It is true that playing RAS totals can risk you getting limited (more likely) or even booted (less likely) at certain sportsbooks, but there are many, many people who exist just fine playing RAS totals at various books.

Delayed is the infinitely more likely scenario and the same as booted wrt playing RAS totals.

This is true. I exaggerate a bit with saying they boot you completely. But, it is the same as far your plays are concerned.

Once you get a delay, you can't get the bets in before they move. Every A rated book will delay you (some after one bet) (except pinnacle but good luck getting in there before they move), even bookmaker who doesn't allegedly doesn't delay people has implemented a delay for RAS players. It will say you can't bet the game you want because it's already started. Ah, no it hasn't assholes. It will do this for 20 seconds until they move the line 3pts.

The only option is clueless locals, or to bet small enough that no one cares.

[Edward-RAS]

Yes, delayed is the other common occurence that I failed to mention. I still don't think the situation is that dire, or at least I haven't heard as many negative reports from clients as I did last season. So I assume that some people are still having success. I hate to mention any books by name, but if you are creative and experiment with enough different sportsbooks on your own, you can have a fair amount of success playing them.

[durito]

I've played with pretty much every book there is. None of them are gonna let you beat them playing your plays for very long.

You can surely bounce around and make a nice profit but you are gonna get yourself profiled quickly everywhere. For me, that is -ev. I got kicked out of a book up about 5k for playing your bets, when otherwise I probably could have made 30k first. Many books actually look at these plays as worse than regular steam.

However, if someone is not an ap on their own, or otherwise not interested in finding other ways to exploit books your service would a great way to make some money. Nice run recently by the way.

[Edward-RAS]

I've played with pretty much every book there is. None of them are gonna let you beat them playing your plays for very long.

You can surely bounce around and make a nice profit but you are gonna get yourself profiled quickly everywhere. For me, that is -ev. I got kicked out of a book up about 5k for playing your bets, when otherwise I probably could have made 30k first. Many books actually look at these plays as worse than regular steam.

However, if someone is not an ap on their own, or otherwise not interested in finding other ways to exploit books your service would a great way to make some money. Nice run recently by the way.

Interesting take, so what would you say helps last longer? Playing other stuff to mask it a bit? Not betting the max?