Looking at a US based site. Deal is, First bet is refunded with Free play if loss, max of 1000.
Optimal play would be to treat both sides as a free play:
Assuming you can play both legs at 200, hedging at -220.
If you win US based, lose at offshore:
US based account is now 3000, losing 1375 off shore, for a gain of 625
If you lose at US based (with gain of 625) already accounted for:
Second leg is the same
Win at US
Free play bet nets you 2000 at US, losing 1375 off shore (625) for a total of 1250 gained, with 1,000 lost for a net of 250.
Lose at US: Gain 625 offshore, for a net of 250 all around.
You are better of winning the Freeplay bet at the US sports book the first time.
So on this, you would expected to get roughly a 37.2 or so cash bonus.
Is there a more optimal way to do this? Take smaller odds on the First US bet?
Optimal play would be to treat both sides as a free play:
Assuming you can play both legs at 200, hedging at -220.
If you win US based, lose at offshore:
US based account is now 3000, losing 1375 off shore, for a gain of 625
If you lose at US based (with gain of 625) already accounted for:
Second leg is the same
Win at US
Free play bet nets you 2000 at US, losing 1375 off shore (625) for a total of 1250 gained, with 1,000 lost for a net of 250.
Lose at US: Gain 625 offshore, for a net of 250 all around.
You are better of winning the Freeplay bet at the US sports book the first time.
So on this, you would expected to get roughly a 37.2 or so cash bonus.
Is there a more optimal way to do this? Take smaller odds on the First US bet?
