1. #36
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
    why not max it at -120 w/o hedge and make more ev?
    Where do you see -120? has not it moved to -180?

  2. #37
    sayhey69
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    Quote Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
    since were stuck in the world of hypotheticals ill throw this one out. suppose we have a 100k roll. pinny is at -164/+140 and the book A is at -120/-110. limit is 500 and the line will move to -180/+120 after we bet it once at book A. how do we maximize ev? and how do you recommend betting this situation?
    ...

  3. #38
    hutennis
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    Oh, I see.

    We can bet whatever on pinny b/c it has very high limits and only 500 at book A.
    So your question is how can we get the max out of it before it moves to useless -180/+120 at book A
    Right?

    no it cannot be right.
    -120 is at book A.
    So 500 is the max we can put on it.
    And now you ask why we would not put 500on it without hedge.

    Let me ask you then.
    Did you read the thread?
    Last edited by hutennis; 09-23-12 at 11:12 PM.

  4. #39
    sayhey69
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    that is what this whole thread is about...

  5. #40
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
    that is what this whole thread is about...
    Right.

    So after I spend all this effort trying to explain why betting -120 without using an available hedging gift horse is a very dumb idea,
    you are asking

    why not max it at -120 w/o hedge and make more ev?
    I mean, common!

  6. #41
    hutennis
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    Oh thats where 100K BR comes in.

    Sure

    Obviously, if your BR allows you that bet (as per Kelly) then do it.
    I goes without saying.

  7. #42
    sayhey69
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    Right.

    So after I spend all this effort trying to explain why betting -120 without using an available hedging gift horse is a very dumb idea,
    you are asking



    I mean, common!

    your whole argument for hedging was that you could risk more and make more ev. that doesnt apply here.

  8. #43
    sayhey69
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    Oh thats where 100K BR comes in.

    Sure

    Obviously, if your BR allows you that bet (as per Kelly) then do it.
    I goes without saying.
    with or without hedge?

  9. #44
    hutennis
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    Without of course

  10. #45
    sayhey69
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    lol

  11. #46
    muffins
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    You are wrong.

    His bet will always have Kelly limitations.
    Arbitrage will not.





    All this risk of canceling business question you should address to OP.
    I'f fully aware of it and even pointed it out here.



    Apparently, OP has no problem with that as he also indicated


    Kelly limitations will not apply as book stake limits will occur first and/orthe portion of the bankroll you have at the particular book offering the surebet opportunity will be below the Kelly stake, the Kelly stake will be higher than the stake limit on the things you are surebetting (at the non Pinny books). His bets will not always have Kelly limitations, you will both have the same stake/deposited funds limit. Your bets at Pinny will have a -2.5% or more (for lesser vents) -EV. He will be better off.

    You are both aware of the risk of cancelling, the difference is it costs you 2.5% of your Pinny stake. It costs him nothing simply a void bet. Your returns are lower.

    To maximise your return on arbitrage you should have minimum 20 and up to 50 books, so that you can take opportunities as they arise. that means between 5% and as little as 2% of your funds at a book. You will also be betting minor leagues and markets a lot, therefore stake limits will be small and any larger stakes would get referred to traders and rejected anyway. Losing 2.5% of your stake at Pinny lowers your return. Spreading your bankroll over less books, so that you have a larger bankroll in each book and thus Kelly comes in to play (as the Kelly stake won't exceed your funds in that larger deposit case) lowers your return as you miss a lot of opportunities.

  12. #47
    Riceboi
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    Any US players do arbitrage? can you recommend the books you use for arbitrage since US players can't use pinnacle?

  13. #48
    chachi
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    Except for mistakes or getting palped/cancelled, arbitrage has zero drawdown and continual guaranteed profit every time

    Only taking the +EV leg can make one quite wealthy, but also can easily lead one down the road to ruin, especially given it'll be an overmark on the dog's price, and we've all seen multiple 0s in a row in roulette or 20 red or black in a row

    edit what a ******* bullshit trivia question #3 on origin of the phrase "march madness"
    Last edited by chachi; 09-24-12 at 09:05 AM.

  14. #49
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by chachi View Post
    Except for mistakes or getting palped/cancelled, arbitrage has zero drawdown and continual guaranteed profit every time
    That's true. Arbitrage means zero drawdown and continual guarenteed profit everytime.

    What I'm saying here is, if the other side you bet is clearly the value side with a good value (in surebets with %4 or higher), your pinnacle bankroll decreases over long haul. (While other accounts increase of course) Therefore, if you have an obivious edge, covering other side in pinnacle is not necessary.

    Quote Originally Posted by chachi View Post
    Only taking the +EV leg can make one quite wealthy, but also can easily lead one down the road to ruin, especially given it'll be an overmark on the dog's price, and we've all seen multiple 0s in a row in roulette or 20 red or black in a row
    Don't compare apples with bananas. Roulette is a game of chance. Pinnacle oddsmakers are smart. If you're picking other side in another book with a good advantage, it means you're laying (betting against) other side even at a better price then Pinnacle.

    Huuuuutennis is talking theorotical. My opinion is based on experience I had since April. Road to ruin? Not even in close, only my pinnacle account was down the road to ruin, lol. Of course, I made nice profit overall and my overall bankroll increased but I feel like I left a fortune on table by covering my bets at Pinnacle.

    Another thing I observed is, this case is not happening much in low surebets I made such as %1-1.50. But on high value surebets such as %4, it happens too often and betting the other side in Pinnacle is clearly, definetely a negative proposition.
    Last edited by Sawyer; 09-24-12 at 11:01 AM.

  15. #50
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post

    Huuuuutennis is talking theorotical. My opinion is based on experience I had since April. Road to ruin? Not even in close, only my pinnacle account was down the road to ruin, lol. Of course, I made nice profit overall and my overall bankroll increased but I feel like I left a fortune on table by covering my bets at Pinnacle.

    Another thing I observed is, this case is not happening much in low surebets I made such as %1-1.50. But on high value surebets such as %4, it happens too often and betting the other side in Pinnacle is clearly, definetely a negative proposition.
    You simply refuse to understand.

    This is not about the way you feel, not about the way you interpret your personal experiences,
    not about the way it seams to be. It is about number. Number that supersedes anything that you brain, gut or imagination can create. And it is very simple too.

    If we are under assumption that risk of canceling is not an issue, then there are no more unknown factors.
    You know limits, stakes, Kelly, win probability, odds, everything. You simply put it together in 2 elementary formulas, get 2 numbers and go with a higher one. Betting the other side on Pinnacle is only clearly and definitely a negative proposition if EV numbers say it is. Not b/c you feel like it is. And guess what, you know it ahead of time so you simply don't do it.

    There is nothing theoretical about it. It is as practical as it gets. That's what engineers do. They don't argue with numbers b/c they may have some personal feelings about the problem they evaluate.
    Iron clad numbers always win. Not to accept this simple notion is a pure insanity.
    I don't even understand why anyone older than 10 years old needs to be convinced.

  16. #51
    Sawyer
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    It's you who refuses to understand. I'm really tried of this. I don't care if you don't understand, lol.

    It's about the numbers man, it's all about fukkin' numbers and my bank details/betting history proves it so I'm not interested in your "theorotical" opinions.

    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    Betting the other side on Pinnacle is only clearly and definitely a negative proposition if EV numbers say it is. Not b/c you feel like it is. And guess what, you know it ahead of time so you simply don't do it.
    Of course, it's EV+. If something is -200 at pinnacle and you're taking it at -125. It's fukkin' EV man, lol. No need to be a rocket scientist to understand it.

    When I look my bank details in last 6 months, I see betting other side at pinnacle in a surebet with a edge of %4 or higher, is clearly negative proposition. So why bet it?

    Huuutenis,

    I have a question for you.

    Huuuuutetris,

    Did you made arbitrage bets (with %4-5 return) between other books and Pinnacle consistently for last 6 months?
    Last edited by Sawyer; 09-24-12 at 01:15 PM.

  17. #52
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Huuuuutetris,

    Did you made arbitrage bets (with %4-5 return) between other books and Pinnacle consistently in last 6 months?
    Jesus!

    I really don't see how that can effect the number, but if you insist...

    I've done all kinds of arbitrage trades on a regular basis for last 20+ years and I made money doing it.

    In sports, I arbitrage in one form or another on a daily basis almost since I found out how to read odds tables.
    Admittedly, it's no more than 2 years. Maybe it is not a lot, but I'm kinda fast learner, lol.

    Now, after I think I answered your question, please tell me what difference does it make for EV calculations?

  18. #53
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post

    When I look my bank details in last 6 months, I see betting other side at pinnacle in a surebet with a edge of %4 or higher, is clearly negative proposition. So why bet it?
    Because you simply were getting lucky for a while with your value bets on favorite.
    You won more than your fair share and naturally, as most people do, got confuse by results.
    Now you don't see any need for covering. Why through money away? Right.

    Yeah. Wait a little. As soon as you stop hedging you will see 6 month when you won't be able to buy a win with your favorite no matter how great your odds are. Then come back and will talk.
    Last edited by hutennis; 09-24-12 at 01:42 PM.

  19. #54
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    Admittedly, it's no more than 2 years. Maybe it is not a lot, but I'm kinda fast learner, lol.

    Okay, end of discussion you can leave now Well, according to your posts, I doubt you're a fast learner

    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    please tell me what difference does it make for EV calculations?
    Jesus! Please tell me it's a joke. Please read carefull my post(s) above!

    But since you said you're a slow..I mean fast-learner, let me tell you again. This is my last post to you cause I'm really get bored.

    What difference does it make EV+?

    This month, I withdrawed 11,200€ from other books but I deposited 8000€ to my pinnacle account.

    Previos month wasn't different either.

    It's happening since the start of baseball season as I said 19198998141 million times in this thread.

    If the value side I bet at other book wasn't value, how my net profit at these books is so high? To each book, I only deposited once.

    Or we can ask the question in reverse,

    If the other side I bet at pinnacle wasn't negative, then my Pinnacle account would go up, isn't it? But the other side I bet is EV- so my pinnacle account keep decreasing.

    However, the x side I bet in other books were strong EV+ bets,

    There's 2 evidence for this,

    1- My net profit in other books is very high but my net profit in pinnacle is extremely negative. There's a huge loss there.

    2- X side is -164 at Pinnacle, Y side is +140. You bet X side at -110 in another book. If you don't think it's a EV+ bet, then I'm afraid we don't have anything to talk anymore

    PS: The bookie you cover the other side must be Pinnacle. Things can change if it's another bookie since Pinnacle lines are very sharp.
    Last edited by Sawyer; 09-24-12 at 01:55 PM.

  20. #55
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    Yeah. Wait a little. As soon as you stop hedging you will see 6 month when you won't be able to buy a win with your favorite no matter how great your odds are. Then come back and will talk.
    Favourite? Sometimes, I bet the dog on other side. It's me who lived this, so I know what's happening. I'm confident with my opinion. I'm really tired of depositing pinnacle over and over again. However, If I have a negative experience, I will write it here.
    Last edited by Sawyer; 09-24-12 at 01:54 PM.

  21. #56
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    [/B]

    If the value side I bet at other book wasn't value, how my net profit at these books is so high? To each book, I only deposited once.

    Or we can ask the question in reverse,

    If the other side I bet at pinnacle wasn't negative, then my Pinnacle account would go up, isn't it? But the other side I bet is EV- so my pinnacle account keep decreasing.
    Yeah, looks like it's pretty hopeless, but I'll try one more time.
    The answer is simple. I quote from above.

    Because you simply were getting lucky for a while with your value bets on favorite.
    You won more than your fair share and naturally, as most people do, got confused by results.
    Now you don't see any need for covering. Why through money away? Right.

    Yeah. Wait a little. As soon as you stop hedging you will see 6 month when you won't be able to buy a win with your favorite no matter how great your odds are. Then come back and will talk.
    Account balances and bank statements are worst places to look for answers to EV questions.

  22. #57
    Sawyer
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    Let me talk in units then. Hold on a second.

  23. #58
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    Let me talk in units then. Hold on a second.
    Its not about units either. Units are the same as money.
    You need implied probability of winning vs actual results.

  24. #59
    Sawyer
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    This month, (based on risking 1 unit each bet)

    Bets I placed in other books produced +11.2 Units.
    Bets I placed in pinnacle, resulted in a -8.3 Units loss.

    Since April,

    Bets I placed other books produced +72.41 Units.
    Bets I placed in pinnacle resulted in a -52.32 Units loss.

    So my overall profit by surebet was approximately +20 Units. While I won +72.41 Units in other books, I left a fortune on the table, -52.32 Units.

    I'm talking about facts here, numbers. You still say implied probability blah blah.

  25. #60
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    This month, (based on risking 1 unit each bet)

    Bets I placed in other books produced +11.2 Units.
    Bets I placed in pinnacle, resulted in a -8.3 Units loss.

    Since April,

    Bets I placed other books produced +72.41 Units.
    Bets I placed in pinnacle resulted in a -52.32 Units loss.

    So my overall profit by surebet was approximately +20 Units. While I won +72.41 Units in other books, I left a fortune on the table, -52.32 Units.

    I'm talking about facts here, numbers. You still say implied probability blah blah.
    Here are two facts.

    1. Implied probability is not blah, blah.
    2. You are hopeless.

  26. #61
    Inspirited
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    From the information I've gotten from this thread at the moment, it just seems that it all depends on your bankroll size and how it's spread out. With the straight bets you're taking on risk. With arbitrage your bets are ~ risk free. Your ev is higher with the straight bet, but because arbitrage is ~ risk free you can bet larger amounts than you would bet on a straight bet. Once your bankroll is large enough that your tapping the limits then the advantage of betting more on arbitrage goes away and you return to straight betting. ???

    Also, hutennis probably thinks sawyer is just getting lucky because hutennis thinks only rare people can beat the books and none of these people currently inhabit SBR. Everyone he meets who beats the books he refers them to binomial distribution of winners and says that it 's expected that some person will get lucky by chance. For hutennis arbing is the only way for the rest of us to make any money. ???

  27. #62
    sayhey69
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    also depends on cost of transferring money between books. both monetary and opportunity if it takes time for the transfer and you are missing other +ev spots.

  28. #63
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Inspirited View Post
    From the information I've gotten from this thread at the moment, it just seems that it all depends on your bankroll size and how it's spread out.
    Only if you live in US. If you don't live in a freest country in a world that does not allow its citizens to do whatever they want to do with their own money in a privacy of their own homes, then you have excess to online wallets and can make transfers and deposits instantaneously and free. OP does have this option.

    With the straight bets you're taking on risk. With arbitrage your bets are ~ risk free. Your ev is higher with the straight bet, but because arbitrage is ~ risk free you can bet larger amounts than you would bet on a straight bet. Once your bankroll is large enough that your tapping the limits then the advantage of betting more on arbitrage goes away and you return to straight betting. ???
    The whole point is that arbitrage EV, depending on calculations, can be much higher than EV of a straight bet and larger BR does not necessarily takes it away. It depends.

    Also, hutennis probably thinks sawyer is just getting lucky because hutennis thinks only rare people can beat the books and none of these people currently inhabit SBR.
    This point you totally misunderstood.
    I tried to explain the reason why his hedging side was depleting so fast and why the way he approached this phenomena is totally wrong.

    Everyone he meets who beats the books he refers them to binomial distribution of winners and says that it 's expected that some person will get lucky by chance. For hutennis arbing is the only way for the rest of us to make any money. ???
    Not for the rest of us. For 99% of us. And this is not my number. It's an industry statistic.
    If you are smart or brave or ignorant or reckless enough to disregard it and still want to fight these horrible odds, please, go right ahead. I could not care less.
    Last edited by hutennis; 09-24-12 at 04:10 PM.

  29. #64
    u21c3f6
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    ...The whole point is that arbitrage EV, depending on calculations, can be much higher than EV of a straight bet and larger BR does not necessarily takes it away. It depends. ...
    I think you mean EG.

    Joe.

  30. #65
    RonPaul2008
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    An arb or hedge should generally be only be done if the hedging side is +ev (this happens all the time, though not so much at pinnacle). Of course, this is only true to the extent that you want to risk the full amount you have on the original side and you should hedge off whatever you don't want to risk.

  31. #66
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by u21c3f6 View Post
    I think you mean EG.

    Joe.

    That too. EV and EG.

  32. #67
    Avskum
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    It is not very smart to bet 50% of your bankroll on a single arbitrage since theres a chance that the winning bet gets voied.

    I agree with sawyer that the Pinnacle bet can be skipped, but then you have to be sure that the other bet is +ev, you are betting +ev why throw money some where else? you will save money on voied bets. They only reason to keep betting at pinnacle depends on your BR, as said in this thread.

    Your theory that you would save all your net losses at your pinnacle account is not true. you will only save the money you pay in jucie to pinnacle. Which can be quite some.....

  33. #68
    easyliving
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    what is this square bookie that posts these line that allow you to arbitrate? Also if you were able to conclude that pinnacle's lines are sharper and they are usually correct on their odds don't you think people would compare these lines to pinnacle and bet the side pinnacle thought had the upper hand.

    for example

    Let's say odds are like this at Pinnacle,

    Jack to win -164
    Mike to win +140


    You find "Jack to win" bet at -120 in another bookie.

    according to your logic more often than not Jack would win in this situation as Pinnacle's lines are sharper. With this logic you can conclude that you can find such situations where a bookie offers better odds than pinnacle on a favorite and bet them continously and make a nice profit in the long run.

  34. #69
    chachi
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    and when 6-7 in a row don't come in, 'not hedging the arb' doesn't seem as smart as before

  35. #70
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by chachi View Post
    and when 6-7 in a row don't come in, 'not hedging the arb' doesn't seem as smart as before
    6-7 in a row can happen one day bu it's meaningless. You must look over long haul. Even losing 6 in a row didn't happen yet but even if it happens, as I said you must look over long haul. Don't think on short term.

    Quote Originally Posted by Avskum View Post
    It is not very smart to bet 50% of your bankroll on a single arbitrage since theres a chance that the winning bet gets voied.
    Definetely. It's a huge risk. Even in arbitrage,there's some risks. Odds can change while you're placing your bet etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Avskum View Post
    I agree with sawyer that the Pinnacle bet can be skipped, but then you have to be sure that the other bet is +ev, you are betting +ev why throw money some where else? you will save money on voied bets. They only reason to keep betting at pinnacle depends on your BR, as said in this thread.
    Agreed. That's true. It's EXTREMELY important to be sure that other bet is +EV. You concluded the situation with a golden sentence: You are betting +EV, why throw money some where else?

    By the way, let me add something. "Arbitrage/surebet is waste of money if you're betting other side at pinnacle" is more strong in +%4 or better surebets. Maybe we can add %3 surebets too but definetely, %4-%5 surebets are losing more often then %1-2 surebets at Pinnacle. There isn't anything extremely significiant for %1-2 surebets but seriously, I strongly suggest to skip other side at Pinnacle if you found a %4-5 surebet.

    Just 1 week ago. Galatasararay-Banvit game. Gala was 1,45 at (-222) Pinnacle and I found Galatasaray 1,70 (-142 approximately) at a cyprus bookie. Banvit was priced 2,20 (+120) at cyprus bookie and +180 at Pinnacle. 2,80 & 1,70 (+180 and -142) means a %5.78 golden surebet. Result? Of course, Galatasaray won, lol. Even if Gala had lost, it wouldn't matter..picking a bet at -142 while it's -222 at Pinnacle is a fukkin' EV+ wager and you will make profit over long haul. No need to be a rocket scientist to understand it. However, if you have a short arbitrage, say like -125 and +130, (%0.98) you better cover Pinnacle side too. As long as you find a %4+ (and maybe +%3.5 and above) surebet, you must seriously consider (the bet you spotted is a really value bet?) skipping other side at Pinnacle.

    Regards,

    Sawyer
    Last edited by Sawyer; 09-26-12 at 09:19 AM.

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