Converting ML Odds into Spreads in Tennis

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  • nash13
    SBR MVP
    • 01-21-14
    • 1122

    #1
    Converting ML Odds into Spreads in Tennis
    Hi,
    is there a formula or table where I can convert ML Odds into Spreads for Tennis in WTA/ATP in best of 3 or 5 set matches?
    I am looking for something like this:
    1.01 to 1.05 --> -8.5
    1.06 to 1.08 --> -8
    etc.
    Any kind of help would be very nice.
  • nash13
    SBR MVP
    • 01-21-14
    • 1122

    #2
    Most bettors will have a portion of their volume of wagers placed on moneylines, but many don’t know when they're getting value. Knowing the corresponding

    something like this
    Comment
    • danshan11
      SBR MVP
      • 07-08-17
      • 4101

      #3
      just take the pinnacle spread for each AH
      Comment
      • nash13
        SBR MVP
        • 01-21-14
        • 1122

        #4
        Originally posted by danshan11
        just take the pinnacle spread for each AH
        i would, but rather looking up each odd manually there might be a place where they are listed as above.
        Comment
        • danshan11
          SBR MVP
          • 07-08-17
          • 4101

          #5
          you can make a list in 20 seconds
          just take a game and run down the spreads it will give you an avg value of each set or whatever and you go from there, its a one time thing not every time
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          • danshan11
            SBR MVP
            • 07-08-17
            • 4101

            #6
            guy is a -169 fave and +1.5 sets he is -408
            410-170=240 240/3 80 80 cents a half set
            guy is -169 fave and -1 game he is -145 so 25 cents a game more or less

            now the only issue is in different sports there is big break points like the NFL at 3 and 7 those could get tricky but this is the general idea of how it works! NOTHING Exact here and big faves you might see a different ratio but I bet its darn close!
            Comment
            • vampire assassin
              SBR Sharp
              • 03-09-18
              • 296

              #7
              It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

              You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
              For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.
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              • nash13
                SBR MVP
                • 01-21-14
                • 1122

                #8
                Originally posted by vampire assassin
                It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

                You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
                For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.
                Exactly. That is the main problem. My predicted pattern shows a significant rise for favs covering the spread once they win than any other sports
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                • danshan11
                  SBR MVP
                  • 07-08-17
                  • 4101

                  #9
                  Originally posted by nash13
                  Exactly. That is the main problem. My predicted pattern shows a significant rise for favs covering the spread once they win than any other sports
                  if there is any truth to what you are saying, I would assume that is in the line already
                  Comment
                  • nash13
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-21-14
                    • 1122

                    #10

                    here is the data compiled from tennis data co uk
                    Comment
                    • danshan11
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-08-17
                      • 4101

                      #11
                      if you took about 10-15 typical scenarios you could get fairly accurate estimates but nothing exact because the market plays into it as well
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                      • nash13
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-21-14
                        • 1122

                        #12
                        the problem here is: ONCE THEY WIN
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                        • danshan11
                          SBR MVP
                          • 07-08-17
                          • 4101

                          #13
                          Originally posted by vampire assassin
                          It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

                          You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
                          For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.
                          this sounds like it is not random data so the data is probably in the line, dont you agree?
                          Comment
                          • nash13
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-21-14
                            • 1122

                            #14
                            i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.
                            Comment
                            • danshan11
                              SBR MVP
                              • 07-08-17
                              • 4101

                              #15
                              Originally posted by nash13
                              i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.
                              win probability was what ?
                              odds implied probability minus juice was what?
                              and that sample is way too small even if it looked good! Could just be random
                              Comment
                              • nash13
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-21-14
                                • 1122

                                #16
                                Originally posted by danshan11
                                win probability was what ?
                                odds implied probability minus juice was what?
                                and that sample is way too small even if it looked good! Could just be random
                                avg odds were -185.19 for the favs. that's the reason why i want to have a deeper look into the ML odds.
                                Comment
                                • Optional
                                  Administrator
                                  • 06-10-10
                                  • 61234

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by nash13
                                  i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.
                                  Is that 304-79 covering the game spread when they win?
                                  .
                                  Comment
                                  • nash13
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-21-14
                                    • 1122

                                    #18
                                    To make it more accurate: the value of each game played in tennis is much higher in tennis than every basket/point covering the spread in any ATS Sport like Basketball/Football. My assumption is based on good ML prediction data you can find some loopholes predicting ATS winner too.
                                    I use Massey Rating, Tennis Abstract and TB365 who offer free prediction data. I converted them into a wighted formula.
                                    Comment
                                    • danshan11
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-08-17
                                      • 4101

                                      #19
                                      to be honest tennis always looks very promising on paper before you consider margin. tennis has huge pre game margins and some crazy high live odds, nearly impossible to beat and books know players quit, cheat and lie and because of this they cover their ass very good with HUGE margins.
                                      Comment
                                      • nash13
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-21-14
                                        • 1122

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Optional
                                        Is that 304-79 covering the game spread when they win?
                                        yes, but i fond it easier to predict a winner in Tennis than in any other sport.
                                        Comment
                                        • danshan11
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-08-17
                                          • 4101

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by nash13
                                          yes, but i fond it easier to predict a winner in Tennis than in any other sport.
                                          well that is great! I just want you to be fully aware of the margin and also remember tennis does some funny shit with where the margin goes, they know nobody plays the dogs and they move that margin heavy on the other side
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                                          • nash13
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-21-14
                                            • 1122

                                            #22
                                            the conversion rates for fav wins in other sports:
                                            NBA: 72.9%
                                            NFL: 74.1%
                                            CFL: 73.2%
                                            NCAA FB: 65.8%
                                            NCAA BB: 67.9%

                                            i had 79% in tennis.

                                            since i got these numbers i started to look for ATS data for tennis games.
                                            Comment
                                            • danshan11
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 07-08-17
                                              • 4101

                                              #23
                                              its all about ATS, what percentage wins ATS or the moneyline

                                              79% winners at -390 avg line is not good when you consider a huge margin
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                                              • nash13
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-21-14
                                                • 1122

                                                #24
                                                Not ML winners my post might mislead you.
                                                the percentages cover the ATS Wins of pre game Favs if they actually win the game.
                                                So like the old saying: good teams win, great teams cover.
                                                Comment
                                                • danshan11
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-08-17
                                                  • 4101

                                                  #25
                                                  Im getting confused what you need to answer is 2 questions
                                                  what is the line they are winning on when you our could bet it?
                                                  what is the % they are winning
                                                  then break that into a few chunks to avoid randomness
                                                  chunk 1 all of them
                                                  chunk 2 huge faves
                                                  chunk 3 slight faves
                                                  chunk 4 name starts with A-J
                                                  chunk 5 name starts with J -Z
                                                  and see what the results look like
                                                  Comment
                                                  • danshan11
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 07-08-17
                                                    • 4101

                                                    #26
                                                    if the line is say -200 (66%) and they are winning -400 (80% you might have something here depending on the margin if 2 conditions are met
                                                    HUGE HUGE SAMPLE SIZE over 3000 records minimum
                                                    and the real gap is bigger than the margin on Tennis cause the tennis margin is NUTS!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • nash13
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-21-14
                                                      • 1122

                                                      #27
                                                      that is the point. i am looking at this because tennis is nuts.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HeeeHAWWWW
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 06-13-08
                                                        • 5487

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by nash13
                                                        i had 79% in tennis.
                                                        The long-term figure is 71.63% for men, 71.56% for women. That's pinnacle odds last 15 years, including challengers (and women's equivalent, itfs of $25k).

                                                        Not terribly useful though.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • nash13
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-21-14
                                                          • 1122

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW
                                                          The long-term figure is 71.63% for men, 71.56% for women. That's pinnacle odds last 15 years, including challengers (and women's equivalent, itfs of $25k).

                                                          Not terribly useful though.
                                                          thank you. that was what i am looking for.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • danshan11
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 07-08-17
                                                            • 4101

                                                            #30
                                                            i am just curious obviously I have no clue but what good is that info?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • HeeeHAWWWW
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 06-13-08
                                                              • 5487

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by danshan11
                                                              i am just curious obviously I have no clue but what good is that info?
                                                              None imo. However, OP said he only had the figure for last month or whatever, just thought I'd put a longer term average out there.

                                                              The problem here is that it first requires you to know the moneyline winning % - for reference, favs win at something like 68% in tennis (can't be bothered looking up, but somewhere in that ballpark). 0.716*0.68 = 0.49 spread wins.
                                                              Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 10-01-18, 05:13 PM.
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                                                              • nash13
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-21-14
                                                                • 1122

                                                                #32
                                                                I guess it's more of a theoretical discussion for me. Once you have an edge at ML Odds, does this transfer to ATS betting as well.
                                                                I am testing these things on paper so no harm done.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • danshan11
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-08-17
                                                                  • 4101

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by nash13
                                                                  I guess it's more of a theoretical discussion for me. Once you have an edge at ML Odds, does this transfer to ATS betting as well.
                                                                  I am testing these things on paper so no harm done.
                                                                  usually if you find a ML edge on a team or player it rolls over to most handicaps BUT a little less because of the prop margin increase on most smaller things
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • tsty
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 04-27-16
                                                                    • 510

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by danshan11
                                                                    usually if you find a ML edge on a team or player it rolls over to most handicaps BUT a little less because of the prop margin increase on most smaller things
                                                                    not true at all
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • danshan11
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 07-08-17
                                                                      • 4101

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by tsty
                                                                      not true at all
                                                                      thanks tsty for the insight but can you elaborate
                                                                      my opinion is
                                                                      Frank ML +120 currently you got him at -110 so that is an edge assuming he will close closer to -110 and you bet at +120
                                                                      I think in turn the other bets involving this player are going to be based largely on the current +120 and will move accordingly

                                                                      example Browns O/U 43
                                                                      so 1st half is probably 21
                                                                      1st quarter is 10.5
                                                                      if it moves to 40
                                                                      1st half moves to 19
                                                                      qtr moves to 9

                                                                      if the moneyline is +120 the spread might be +1.5
                                                                      if the moneyline moves to -110 the spread will probably be PICK
                                                                      something like that, you dont agree or how is that wrong, thanks for the input!
                                                                      Comment
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