@tsty why dont you chat with me, you like literally avoid my questions and posts, did I offend you somehow? do we have history or something that I dont remember? I know I have pissed off lots of bettors over the years with my "lets call it persistant style"
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Man, I just keep getting lucky every day don't I? Why did I pick the draw and a dog ML instead of handicaps? I guess I just felt like gambling, there was no good reasoning behind those bets. And the fact that the dog scored 2 goals in 35 minutes despite having a red card is just a coincidence. It's almost as if the fav was a bad pick or something.
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give me the past 10 bets you made and let me see if you are lucky or goodComment -
Here's my plan for christmas time. I'll be ok with the red line.
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Read a post about "Trap Line" in here....
Yes, there are trap lines. What is a trap line? It's basically a ridiculous line that baits you into taking a particular side... that you believe has an extraordinary edge. Or definition #2... No fu#$ing way this wager loses.
Example?
Detroit Lions At New England Patriots -4.5
You look at this line... and you say to yourself... no fu#$ing way New England doesn't cover this... I'm laying 10X my regular size wager on this one.... and you take New England -4.5 at Home.
Detroit is leading in the game with 2 minutes to go.... 24-20. Brady marches down the field and scores the winning TD with 0:00 on the clock.... and they don't even kick the PAT anymore... New England wins 26-24. That's a TRAP LINE. If you bought it to -4 you lost. If you bought it to -3.5 you lost. If you even wasted heavy juice and bought it to -3. YOU LOST. TRAP CITY.Comment -
I agree with both definitions. I know what the average square looks for and thus I can identify the traps.Comment -
20,555 posts and still has no fking idea what he is talking aboutComment -
You mean to say the bookie KNEW the pats wouldn't cover? Think about it for 5 seconds man. Just THINK. Maybe, the reason the line is that low is because...the actual probability of the pats covering that spread is simply low and it could be for various reasons like "they always perform worse VS the Lions when it's a dreary Sunday". The line was right. You just believe it's a trap. If you look for it, you can probably find a "trap" that won for every "trap" that lost, you just don't remember those.
The reason the line stands where it is and does not just sprint the other way (sharps and syndicates can easily identify traps, no?) is because it's actually correct! The weight of money would move the line to the correct number if it was that wrong! If there is that much value on the other side, it would be pounded with sharp money at Pinnacle and the line would move. The fairly small amounts of square money on the "wrong" side would actually be welcomed by the sharps because they'd be able to place more money on the value side!Last edited by Alfa1234; 08-24-18, 03:13 AM.Comment -
Sadly, this is a classic example of calculating yourself rich. I hope it works out for you...but logic and math says it won't. Please post your last 50 picks or so and I'll also be able to give you and idea if your edge is real, though the sample size would still be way too small.
Also: you forgot the betting limits in your graph.Last edited by Alfa1234; 08-24-18, 03:16 AM.Comment -
I did not think about taking the pats either...I bet numbers only, not teams or anything that may or may not look good.
My only point is, there is no such thing as a trap. The market corrects wrong lines, even if bookies were to somehow place a trap for squares they would be way too overexposed on the other side (where the smart money comes in) so it would not make any sense for them to even attempt doing anything of the sort.Comment -
this has been a great topic and I hope someone reading this is learning something.
Trap line is a vague thing so I guess technically trap lines could exist in the sense that some faves don't cover, it happens everyday.
I think what happens in that instance is
Pats are known to be great so you assume super high spread
but say the pats are 11 point faves normal conditions
11 seems fair so why is it 5
usually something like
on the road -3ish now 8
2 big value lineman are out might be -3 now -5
1 strong corner is out -1 now -4
so you say man -4 the Pats are way better than the Lions and Brady is playing but in reality because of the situation they are -4 and -4 is fairComment -
If i make my lines at pats -8 and they come out -5 I bet the Pats
if I make the pats -2 and they come out -5 I bet the Lions
the only trap for me is if it closes at -5 and I lose the juice because I missed something or the market at 5 was sharper than my model and 5 was the line, I was wrong and over time I will lose the juice on this bet.Comment -
Gaze you have the tout infection, you do not know what winning is and you will maybe win, maybe lose, but eventually you will do like all people who don't know, you will pay the juice UNTIL you smarten up, make fair lines and track the value of those bets and if you don't have line value then you got to do something else or pay the juice.Comment -
Bsims one of the first things that turned on the light to heaven for me was a simple coin flipper, if you do a 1000 simulated flips 20 times you will be shocked at how many times heads is a good bet.
it is the same as a system its just an anomaly that a "system" shows ROI or whatever
Team A > hits than team B on tuesdays or if they scored more than 4 last game they win the next game at 55% or whatever "system" it is just one of those coin flip simulators where heads came way out ahead and it is insignificant for future results even though it has 1000 proven sample size. I hope that makes sense I know I ramble on like a 4 year old at the toy store.Comment -
this one is really cool one
set it to 2 sectors and set to 1000 flips do it 10 20 times and see how many times it looks like blue is smart or red is smart.
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I set the total to over 6.5 means it is probably not 2 really good pitchers
opponent is losing a few in a row, means they are probably struggling
set month to greater than 4 so we got good season data already
put the line at more favorite than -150 so its not teams that are barely favorites
this looks great long term winner, a few conditions that kinda make sense but reality its not dude its just an anomaly and by squeezing a few things together looks like something but its not even though it "kinda" makes sense. each game is individual of each other and the the chances of the dbacks or dodgers winning today is the same as any other game where they have this same line, this system means nothingComment -
Having some fun with that spinner. By the way, I think you may have to hit "new experiment" each time or not sure what its doing because when I didn't do that it had pink come out as winner 20 times in a row. Anyway, when I clicked "new experiment" after running each simulation it appeared to be working properly.
With a sample size of 1000, it took 25 times to see one side break 52.4% (which it did by .3% only). Shows how truly difficult it is to beat sports over the long haul when one has no positive expectation. Of course we all know that but to see it reinforced this way is illuminating.
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amen it also shows you that if you put 100 guys and let them choose 50 50 games some will win big and some will lose bigComment -
Yes- over a small sample exactly. And as they continue the large numbers even things out. I was curious how long it would take to get a 54% by either side over a 1000-sample spin. It took me 75 experiments! So even when someone without any skill hits that 54% mark over a nice sample, there's still that doubt!Comment -
there will always be doubt if you dont have line value, please I beg this tells you that winning record means nothingComment -
Preaching to the choir Danshan. I do love me some line value!Comment -
I had absolute shit luck yesterday, 30% of my bankroll depended on a couple of minutes. The worst offender was this game, my second worst beat ever. I had Chaves +0.5, Under 2.5 and Draw for 10% of my BR total.
I was sickened and disheartened after that day. But with my last breath I capped the american games and justice prevailed. Nice favs bros, they just got unlucky I'm sure. The edge is real boyos. The riches await!
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How can 30% of your roll depend on a few minutes if you are using Kelly 0.25?Comment -
Who said I'm using kelly 0.25? I'm betting 3-5% of the bankroll depending on odds. On that game above I bet 4% on handicap, 4% on under and 2% on draw and instead of winning all 3 I lost all 3 so that's a 20% bankroll difference. I also had a fav that went from 2-0 to 2:2 in 88' and a draw bet that went 1-0 in 91' so that's 30% total.Comment -
Your graph said you were using Kelly 0.25. According to your own graph, you can expect a max drawdown of 55% with 0.25 Kelly. If you are at 10% of your roll with just 1 game...you can expect to go bankrupt several times over even if your ROI was 30%. Trust me on this.
Also, if you get disheartened after 1 game...you are doing something wrong. What will happen if you lose 15 in a row (that WILL happen with 10% ROI, trust me again on that)? Will you quit the system? What will happen if you bust out 3x in a row?Comment -
Most games I bet only 3-5% but in that one I had 3 value bets which is extremely uncommon. In that graph I used 4% staking, don't mind the kelly number. I wasn't diseheartened just because of 1 game, the entire day was shit because favs I opposed just kept winning at a crazy rate. But fortunately I went 5/5 overnight and made a profit in the end. I will never go bust 100%.Comment -
One more time. The discussion above is based on the faulty assumption that your non-random wager selections will perform at the aggregates 50/50 rate which may or may not be true. You cannot use a 50/50 simulator if your selections do not perform that way. GIGO garbage info in, garbage info out. Each individual event is not 50/50 even though the aggregate has a 50/50 rate.
I make many wagers where I wait for the line to go up (a better price) but according to the BTCL theory I could never have value in that wager because I can't BTCL in that scenario which is of course false.
I honestly don't know what else to write. The statistical inference that an individual event will perform exactly as the aggregate is just absolutely statistically incorrect. There is no way to prove this other than with results.
If you can be profitable trying to BTCL, congratulations, but it is not necessary. I am not aware of any book that pays based on CLV therefore wins and losses matter very much. I was going to elaborate on this but I would probably be wasting my time.
i honestly wish the best of luck to all but please be aware that there is more than one way to go about being profitable and there are no "have to do's" other than making selections that collect more on your winners than you lose on your losers.
Joe.Comment -
If your sample size is big enough and you make random selections on any random handicap, those selections WILL perform at a rate of 50/50. That is based upon the fact that, over the long term and on average, the market is efficient and will have a correct closing line. Without having an edge, you will end up with a 50/50 win rate over the long term. There is nothing faulty about that. Your assumption is only true for a relatively small sample size but once the sample becomes big enough the win rate will revert to the mean 50%.
The spreadsheet of some well known poster here is a perfect example. There are tens of thousands of selections in that spreadsheet and the win rate is 50%.
Edit: I understand what you are saying and you are of course right, but over the long term the only way to deviate from the mean 50% is making non-randon selections with a +EV.
I strongly believe that is impossible by only betting the closing line, because the market has erased all inefficiencies and positive EV out of the closing line (on average). If you are making a profit betting the closing line only, I believe your edge is fake and it will eventually evaporate and you'll revert back to a 50% win rate. I stronly believe the only way to win long term is by beating the closing line.Last edited by Alfa1234; 08-25-18, 08:13 AM.Comment -
Let's say I bet on 500 dogs priced +400 and 28% of them win for a 40% roi. Say what you want, but when I bet on the 501st dog I'm going to go out on a limb and assume he has a 28% chance to win. Sure, maybe it's 15% and maybe it's 40% but who cares about one individual event?
I fully agree with the second paragraph, bookies don't pay based on CLV.
Btw here's some doggos I like today:
Juventus - Lazio Draw +383 (30%)
Napoli - Milan Draw +308 (35%)
Sporting ML +390 (35%)Comment
