I guess I am asking what you use to determine if someone is sharp or not. Sharp to me means a long term winner and has a clear understanding of how betting really works! I am just trying to get some peoples ideas of what the benchmarks are, thanks
What is your mesasuring stick for a "sharp" player
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danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#1What is your mesasuring stick for a "sharp" playerTags: None -
SBR DrewSBR Hall of Famer
- 01-08-18
- 7351
#2Knowing when to place a bet, when to not place a bet, and mostly when to walk away .Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#3I think one thing that sticks out to me is a guy who has too many plays on a small card
say the MLB card has 10 games that means 10 sides and 10 totals
usually average roughly about a guy has 1 or maybe 2 plays out of that
and I see these guys with 12 plays, that to me is usually a big sign "this guy dont know shit" or "he just throws a bunch of shit up" but he definitely is not getting value on that many plays out of 20
I mean like I found 1 play on the WNBA playoffs and I was shocked there was one with only 2 games and all the posts I see guys picking 3 or 4 plays out of 4 available plays, that to me tells me they are FOS.Comment -
Rich BoySBR Hall of Famer
- 02-01-09
- 9714
#4Anyone who can consistently get an edge over the marketComment -
Waterstpub87SBR MVP
- 09-09-09
- 4102
#6
I've seen you say that "not many plays" thing before. It isn't uniform. Could have 10 plays today, and then none for the week. Plenty of days I get 1 play out of both sides and totals, others days I might have 5 or 6. Still beat the close enough that I should be up money in baseball totals and sides. Depends on the time of the season. When you get to august, I tend to get very few plays, but in April it was easily 4 to 5 sides a day.
College football last year, beat the close by 1.5 pts on both the totals and sides over the entire season, had roughly 10-15 sides and 10-15 totals a week, which would be roughly 25% of the options.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#7so you get roughly one "value bet out of 4? you dont think that seems high in general?Comment -
Rich BoySBR Hall of Famer
- 02-01-09
- 9714
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danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#9so line value over a decent sample size is what you are saying? what do you consider a decent sample size?Comment -
Waterstpub87SBR MVP
- 09-09-09
- 4102
#10
Plenty of people make 1 square play a day. Doesn't mean they are a sharp.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#11I am not saying you cant have 10 one day, I am saying guys that are turning out huge game numbers dont usually see volume. I am not doubting your talent because your number is high to me, you might be extremely talented and be able to narrow down value plays way tighter.
example
If I make the Yankees -150 if they are -162 I cant take them because my math is not close enough to say for with any certainty that -160 is closer than me. I am in baseball about 14 cents off from a +100 game. so for me to have an MLB play its got to be more than 14 cents off on a +100 game, so that limits my plays dramatically. What I am saying is MOST guys who put out 4 plays on a 8 option card are FOS 99% of the time. that does not decide he is FOS but it is a symptom to me of someone FOS.Comment -
Rich BoySBR Hall of Famer
- 02-01-09
- 9714
#12Depends, if your average winner is around 5% then you will need a much larger sample than if its near 50%. Also depends on how confident you are in your system/backtests etc. I would be confident in a sample of 100+ games of results vs odds and prob 50+ games odds vs closing numbersComment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#13Depends, if your average winner is around 5% then you will need a much larger sample than if its near 50%. Also depends on how confident you are in your system/backtests etc. I would be confident in a sample of 100+ games of results vs odds and prob 50+ games odds vs closing numbersComment -
Rich BoySBR Hall of Famer
- 02-01-09
- 9714
#14
If your expected win rate is around 50% then 100 games is more than enough, you wont get much more variance than 45-55%.
But if you can compare your odds vs pinny closing odds then it wont take a sample much more than 25-50 games to say you can out-handicap them consistently.
I would track both and see how they compare, also compare open vs closing line and see if they generally move in the direction you pickComment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#15straight line value bet line to closing line is perfect for me but it seems like MOST people dont use that for some reason.
I also was reading a ripple theory. Big bettors with books eyeing their plays create ripples and this in turn creates a ride it or not effect. So example
Big bettor A with book respect bets a nickel on a game the line will move at that book and probably a few affiliate sites as well, this creates a ripple that might not have been there before he bet. So because other smart bettors see this bet, they tail it and this turns that ripple into a wave and can influence the closing line. You think this is true?
we are not even talking about syndicate plays or big capper plays with 1000s of followers or big money followers on their picks!Comment -
Waterstpub87SBR MVP
- 09-09-09
- 4102
#16I am not saying you cant have 10 one day, I am saying guys that are turning out huge game numbers dont usually see volume. I am not doubting your talent because your number is high to me, you might be extremely talented and be able to narrow down value plays way tighter.
example
If I make the Yankees -150 if they are -162 I cant take them because my math is not close enough to say for with any certainty that -160 is closer than me. I am in baseball about 14 cents off from a +100 game. so for me to have an MLB play its got to be more than 14 cents off on a +100 game, so that limits my plays dramatically. What I am saying is MOST guys who put out 4 plays on a 8 option card are FOS 99% of the time. that does not decide he is FOS but it is a symptom to me of someone FOS.
So you take things that are roughly 3.25% off or so. I am about 5% or so.
Depends on the sport. College lines, especially something like Toledo/Akron or UL Monroe/UL lafayette is going to be less efficient.
Most people are FOS. But betting more plays is not necessarily indicative of being a square unless you don't beat the close.Comment -
BarrakudaSBR Wise Guy
- 02-28-18
- 786
#17Its about variance and probabilities. If your theoretical probability is very low or high (<10% or >90%) then it will require a larger sample in order to eliminate chance or luck from the sample. You could have a sample of 100 games with a 5% expected win rate and end up with a sample of 1-10%, huge range
If your expected win rate is around 50% then 100 games is more than enough, you wont get much more variance than 45-55%.
But if you can compare your odds vs pinny closing odds then it wont take a sample much more than 25-50 games to say you can out-handicap them consistently.
I would track both and see how they compare, also compare open vs closing line and see if they generally move in the direction you pickComment -
BarrakudaSBR Wise Guy
- 02-28-18
- 786
#18Its about variance and probabilities. If your theoretical probability is very low or high (<10% or >90%) then it will require a larger sample in order to eliminate chance or luck from the sample. You could have a sample of 100 games with a 5% expected win rate and end up with a sample of 1-10%, huge range
If your expected win rate is around 50% then 100 games is more than enough, you wont get much more variance than 45-55%.
But if you can compare your odds vs pinny closing odds then it wont take a sample much more than 25-50 games to say you can out-handicap them consistently.
I would track both and see how they compare, also compare open vs closing line and see if they generally move in the direction you pickComment -
Rich BoySBR Hall of Famer
- 02-01-09
- 9714
#19
What sample size you want for data is subjective and based on personal preference.
Try running simulations and see what kind of variance you are comfortable with
Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#20No, but if they beat the pinny closer on average over those 100 plays I would say its concrete.
What sample size you want for data is subjective and based on personal preference.
Try running simulations and see what kind of variance you are comfortable with
http://www.equitycurvesimulator.com/Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#21man I just got scared to death by that simulator I set it up for my fair win% minus vig and spun that baby 10 rolls at a time and it took me 1200 rolls to get to my fair win% I would have lost for lord knows how long that is to get to profit on my edgeComment -
tstySBR Wise Guy
- 04-27-16
- 510
#22money earnt
minimum games 10kComment -
BarrakudaSBR Wise Guy
- 02-28-18
- 786
#23No, but if they beat the pinny closer on average over those 100 plays I would say its concrete.
What sample size you want for data is subjective and based on personal preference.
Try running simulations and see what kind of variance you are comfortable with
http://www.equitycurvesimulator.com/
LOL. Beating a closing line on 100 plays means nothing -- unless you're beating it by 10%.Comment -
TheMoneyShotBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-07
- 28672
#26I always thought being a SHARP meant... you place your wager moments before the line moves against your initial play. Creating the best opportunity possible... best bang for your buck... and winning that play.
I've been doing this for nearly 20 years now... I technically play hungry dogs 80% of the time with my formulas...
Beating the closing line is sort of useless for me... 60%+ of the time you'll get the best line near closing time.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#27
So if wins and losses mean zero which the simulator proves we got to use beating the line. I think if you bet 100 games and can by average beat the margin you have a chance but man its thin and forever.Comment -
tstySBR Wise Guy
- 04-27-16
- 510
#28100 games lol
best thing ive ever heard
i clear 100 bets a day fairly often
100 aint shitComment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#29Comment -
tstySBR Wise Guy
- 04-27-16
- 510
#30
the only difference is the variables in playComment -
Rich BoySBR Hall of Famer
- 02-01-09
- 9714
#31My point is that with lower win rate systems you need more precision in the data to have confidence since variance has a large impact on the results. 1 more win or loss in a 100 game sample at 10% expected win rate represents a huge difference, compared to 50%. But even if you have that data it doesnt guarantee that system will continue to work. Thats the biggest problem with systems and backtesting, in an efficient market past success doesnt guarantee future results and I have seen that first hand in sports over the years, books are quick to catch on to positive expectancy players, they watch you, stalk you like a fkn hawk and all the bets you place you are essentially giving them free info on their weaknesses at a small cost to them, they shore up those lines and you are on to the next system that works for a while and the cycle repeats.
That is the reason why I decided to give up sports betting, the edges are not as good as they used to be and books are constantly adjusting and becoming more efficient.Comment -
ThichtSBR Rookie
- 07-29-17
- 24
#33I think Danshan that a big reason that you are hesitant when a guy has a lot of volume is because you may be used to touts/services releasing very selectively and so you may have been conditioned to believe that is correct. But what you don't see is behind the scenes these touts/services may be unloading a great deal more volume. Most services aren't doing much with 1st halves and 2nd halves and even the main side/total action may be something like 10-20% of their total action.Comment -
tstySBR Wise Guy
- 04-27-16
- 510
#34My point is that with lower win rate systems you need more precision in the data to have confidence since variance has a large impact on the results. 1 more win or loss in a 100 game sample at 10% expected win rate represents a huge difference, compared to 50%. But even if you have that data it doesnt guarantee that system will continue to work. Thats the biggest problem with systems and backtesting, in an efficient market past success doesnt guarantee future results and I have seen that first hand in sports over the years, books are quick to catch on to positive expectancy players, they watch you, stalk you like a fkn hawk and all the bets you place you are essentially giving them free info on their weaknesses at a small cost to them, they shore up those lines and you are on to the next system that works for a while and the cycle repeats.
That is the reason why I decided to give up sports betting, the edges are not as good as they used to be and books are constantly adjusting and becoming more efficient.
even more so if you think they care about "systems"
the real reason is that your system never worked
systems in general never work
the only way to model sports is with regression , that's it
none of this coincidence bsComment -
reigle9SBR Posting Legend
- 10-25-07
- 17879
#35i thought consistently beating the closing line was the textbook definitionComment
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