What is your mesasuring stick for a "sharp" player

[tsty]

should have*

Also gambling isn't supposed to be a hobby? Why? If you're breaking even or better I don't see the problem.

How does placing bets give you enjoyment?

only degenerates find it fun

[ApricotSinner32]

How does placing bets give you enjoyment?

only degenerates find it fun

What do you find fun?

[danshan11]

I really enjoy losing in the NBA for fun, really entertaining LOL

[Toples]

reminds me of this

[tsty]

What do you find fun?

Irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

You just need to ask yourself why placing a bet is "fun". People in this thread have clearly stated that as long as you don't lose a lot of money then it's fine because it brings enjoyment. So where does this enjoyment come from? It can't be beating the market because you don't even need to place a bet to make a model or test your theories. Then is it the act of risking monkey? Is risking money the enjoyment people get from this?

[Toples]

Probably adrenaline. its addictive.

[Bsims]

Comedian Norm Macdonald discusses his addiction to gambling in the book "Based on a True Story: Not a Memoir". I think his description of why people are addicted is the best I've seen. I don't have the book handy, so I'll have to loosely describe from memory.

He watched people at a craps table. When they were placing their bets, he felt he saw anxiety on their faces. Anxiety is not something people get addicted to. But when the dice were in the air, their expressions changed to hope. That is what people get addicted to, hope.

[danshan11]

How do the books make money?

I think it is really important for us to build our strategy based on knowing how the books really make money. Anyone that knows anything or has any decent ideas chime in!

[snapperman2]

We all know how books make money. They make money from the vigorish: the difference between the total odds they offer for the two different teams in a game and 100%. They offer small limits at first and then large limits close to game time. They make sure that the money wagered on the two teams is similar. If people are betting on one team primarily then they make the odds worse for that team until the wagers on the two teams are in balance. The market will make sure that the odds become fair on the two teams. The books may lose a little money on their early lines, but their later lines will be very sharp and they will make a lot of money from the vigorish.

The ways to make money are to attack opening lines before they get sharp, or small markets like obscure sports.

[danshan11]

so if this is the case how did they lose one zillion on the Rams over and have a bad week a couple weeks ago where they said they lost all games, these scenarios would be impossible if they "balanced the action"

[Alfa1234]

so if this is the case how did they lose one zillion on the Rams over and have a bad week a couple weeks ago where they said they lost all games, these scenarios would be impossible if they "balanced the action"

Because they simply don't balance all action on 1 game. It balances out over a season and all games combined.

[danshan11]

you are missing my point.
if you can build a model to pick winners, why doesnt pinnacle do that? if picking winners is possible why dont they do that, why all the hassle of a site and taking bets they know they are going to lose, if picking winners is possible why are they losing money on purpose.

[danshan11]

Because they simply don't balance all action on 1 game. It balances out over a season and all games combined.

Honestly I dont even understand what you are trying to say here, really, can you say it a different way or give me an example, please

[yak merchant]

you are missing my point.
if you can build a model to pick winners, why doesnt pinnacle do that? if picking winners is possible why dont they do that, why all the hassle of a site and taking bets they know they are going to lose, if picking winners is possible why are they losing money on purpose.

Are you serious? Nobody loses money on purpose. To pick a winner you have to have a line. To have a line you have to have someone willing to hang a line. Bookmakers deal in distributions of results and betting interest.

[danshan11]

yeah say all the sharps on here and the professional modelers know the Bears are going to cover, why would they even put a line up for the Bears why not just take the Vikings money? Could it be possible maybe its really 50-50 ATS and the only way to win is to make the coin flips +105?

[Alfa1234]

you are missing my point.
if you can build a model to pick winners, why doesnt pinnacle do that? if picking winners is possible why dont they do that, why all the hassle of a site and taking bets they know they are going to lose, if picking winners is possible why are they losing money on purpose.

They have a model, which they use for their opening line. They then adjust their opening line by using the weight of money, combining the models and opinions of every single client they have to make the perfect line. That is why their closing line is so incredibly hard to beat.

Re the balanced action: I meant they don't necessarily have balanced action on every game but that doesn't matter. At the end of the season it will all balance out because a book will be on the wrong side of the balance just as many times as they are on the right side of the unbalanced action, they have their juice advantage and will make money long term.

[danshan11]

They have a model, which they use for their opening line. They then adjust their opening line by using the weight of money, combining the models and opinions of every single client they have to make the perfect line. That is why their closing line is so incredibly hard to beat.

Re the balanced action: I meant they don't necessarily have balanced action on every game but that doesn't matter. At the end of the season it will all balance out because a book will be on the wrong side of the balance just as many times as they are on the right side of the unbalanced action, they have their juice advantage and will make money long term.

but you yourself have heard 1000 people say they can pick winners so if they can, why cant pinnacle? Why offer action on the Bears if guys like Snowball (not picking on him but he says he can) and Pinnacle know the Bears are going to win!

[Alfa1234]

but you yourself have heard 1000 people say they can pick winners so if they can, why cant pinnacle? Why offer action on the Bears if guys like Snowball (not picking on him but he says he can) and Pinnacle know the Bears are going to win!

Whoever says they can "pick winners" on every game is an idiot and you are just as strong an advocate of "having to beat the closing line to make a profit" as I am. No-one knows the bears are going to win, your model may predict the bears should win by x points and the Pinnacle closing line may say differently. If your model is right you'll be able to beat the closing line and beat the market long term if you bet enough games. If you are "picking winners" from the closing line, you have either found those few games where the market closing line was "off", which is off course possible (say a sharp was wrong and put 500k on a game, his opinion will be reflected more strongly and that could cause the line to be a bit off) or you are simply not profitable long term.

Pinnacle cannot create a model that beats the models of all their clients combined for all games, no-one can. That is the whole point of Pinnacle's business model.

[danshan11]

Whoever says they can "pick winners" on every game is an idiot and you are just as strong an advocate of "having to beat the closing line to make a profit" as I am. No-one knows the bears are going to win, your model may predict the bears should win by x points and the Pinnacle closing line may say differently. If your model is right you'll be able to beat the closing line and beat the market long term if you bet enough games. If you are "picking winners" from the closing line, you have either found those few games where the market closing line was "off", which is off course possible (say a sharp was wrong and put 500k on a game, his opinion will be reflected more strongly and that could cause the line to be a bit off) or you are simply not profitable long term.

Pinnacle cannot create a model that beats the models of all their clients combined for all games, no-one can. That is the whole point of Pinnacle's business model.

EXACTLY, so what is all this other conversation, I think one of the "pick winner guys" should explain how this works. this question is not for people that think the earth is round, this is a flat earther question really

[snapperman2]

It is easy to get fooled by variance and wishful thinking into thinking that you actually have an advantage sports betting when you don't. Many people think that they have an advantage when they do not and many of them post pick threads on SBR. They lose money until they wise up. I confess that in the past I used to have fantasies of being able to beat the sports books in major sports and I lost a lot of money proving myself wrong.

[danshan11]

It is easy to get fooled by variance and wishful thinking into thinking that you actually have an advantage sports betting when you don't. Many people think that they have an advantage when they do not and many of them post pick threads on SBR. They lose money until they wise up. I confess that in the past I used to have fantasies of being able to beat the sports books in major sports and I lost a lot of money proving myself wrong.

but what is your definition or fuel gauge of an edge?

[snapperman2]

Winning or losing to an extent significantly different than zero. After a few hundred bets, a t-test should tell you whether your winning is statistically significant or not.

[tsty]

You guys are arguing with someone who doesnt even understand basic probability

He thinks picking winners is speaking in terms of absolutes

[danshan11]

You guys are arguing with someone who doesnt even understand basic probability

He thinks picking winners is speaking in terms of absolutes

are you talking about me and what is your point? I dont get it
what tells you I don't understand basic probability?
and picking winners in terms of absolute is for me just to show the craziness in believing you can pick better than the line, which is complete horse doo doo. But honestly I am not even sure what the heck you even mean so please clarify or say something else cause I have no clue of your point, I think LOL

[arschillig]

This thread blows

[danshan11]

This thread blows

you should start a really good one, that would be very cool or if you want just give me some ideas and I will do it for you!

[tsty]

You say the same thing in every post

What is your end goal?

What is the point?

You state that closing lines are accurate. Ok so what now?

What do you want?

[danshan11]

You say the same thing in every post

What is your end goal?

What is the point?

You state that closing lines are accurate. Ok so what now?

What do you want?

I think I say the same thing over and over because I am not totally convinced of anything really.
My end goal is to learn how it all really works
The point is can someone handicap a game better than the line
beat the line and profit of course
I want to win!

[qsgsg]

As long as i got a good model. I can make money with a 15% win rate over a few hundred or thousands of games. i can even make money with a 5% win rate over the same number of games.

[tsty]

If the line is moving then its pretty obvious you can but just depends for how much

I doubt anyone is making a million on their own in edge per year

Heck even half that would be very surprising

[oilcountry99]

The amount of profits generated yearly. Win% is less important than staking strategy. Good MM can out perform good win%. Don't get me wrong you need wins, but the money attached to them sets cappers apart. Sports game results are so random and unpredictable that a recovery strategy has to be implemented, I don't believe in flat betting -110 odds. It's to much up and down, win one lose one....yadda yadda yadda. People won't agree with me but a controlled chase type strategy should be employed. All games should be capped and strategically placed.

The bottom line is PROFIT over the long term = Success.

We're all here for the same reason, to make $$$. We all have different theories, methods, etc. To me MM is what sets people apart. Cap the Game, cap the Wager.

[tsty]

The only reason I even bet is because i pay zero tax on my winnings

If i had to pay tax i doubt i would even bother

Imo its not worth it if you are living in a rich country

[tsty]

Also lol at martingale strategy

[oilcountry99]

Also lol at martingale strategy

Yes, I'm sure you're a winning bettor just like everyone else on theses forums. LOL. 1% of bettors win and they must all be on these forums, it's such a joke. There is never anything constructive anymore.

you read 'martingale' and you laugh....reread the post.

[danshan11]

As long as i got a good model. I can make money with a 15% win rate over a few hundred or thousands of games. i can even make money with a 5% win rate over the same number of games.

what is a 15% win rate? I dont know that terminology