Edge against an effecient market?

[tsty]

Because I'm broke and unemployed, and still testing and perfecting my systems, that's why. But I'd bet my first born that I can get 10% roi on the closing lines. I've been doubted by everyone for years, but I'll show them...I'll show them all!

excuses on excuses on excuses

[Gaze73]

excuses on excuses on excuses

Boy, am I going to enjoy your envious fukking faces when you see my profits later.

[Gaze73]

Look at this, I took Helen Athletic +5.5 and it's 3-3 with 17 minutes to go. Muh efficient market. Favs are such crap. Tards who risked 10k to win 100 are shaking in their boots right now.

[danshan11]

Gaze,
I think your thought process of long term sports betting is flawed but the only way to know for sure is for you to post your lines before games and if the line moves in your direction enough to cover the spread you have a very good chance to be profitable long term if you dont you probably wont be. Sorry it is so just matter of fact but it is what it is

[tsty]

Boy, am I going to enjoy your envious fukking faces when you see my profits later.

You joined this site in 2014

4 years and still nothing

There are actual pros on this site letting you know that you are wrong but you still want to argue

[Gaze73]

It's easy to be a pro when you have 50k roll. But in terms of betting skill I'd blow you out of the water, that's what matters. Just keep grinding at your pathetic 4% roi.

[tsty]

It's easy to be a pro when you have 50k roll. But in terms of betting skill I'd blow you out of the water, that's what matters. Just keep grinding at your pathetic 4% roi.

Nobody cares about ROI in the betting world my friend

It's only about the $ made and it seems like you ain't making a lot of it

[Gaze73]

Roi is the #1 indicator of betting skill, nobody cares about that? In one year I'll be richer than you.

[tsty]

Roi is the #1 indicator of betting skill, nobody cares about that? In one year I'll be richer than you.

No it's not. It's how much money you make.

It has always been about how much money you make.

Nobody gives a flying penetrate about ROI or imaginary ROI in your case.

[Gaze73]

Yeah, that's what you keep telling yourself to cover for your lack of skill. You're like the guy at the poker table who thinks he's the best player because he has the biggest stack.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Yeah, that's what you keep telling yourself to cover for your lack of skill. You're like the guy at the poker table who thinks he's the best player because he has the biggest stack.

Think of it like this: you have a selection of possible bets, and you chop out all the low edge ones. Your RoI rises as a result, but you make less money overall.

If you have a model that's working long-term, you take all the meat on the table, even the little scraps - they're not remotely as profitable, but there are a lot of them.

[danshan11]

@Gaze
You are an angry person at people who just are telling you the reality of this game, I agree tsty is a bit harsh but he is just telling you that your expectations are not reasonable. No one including tsty can know you wont win a 30% roi or whatever. I am just saying that i think your methods are flawed and I am trying to help you save money and time.
1. you are tracking some good things but are missing some really key things (CLV mainly)
2. you do not have an edge that I can see, that is not to say you dont but I dont see an edge from the posts and screenshots.

do yourself a favor
1 keep fighting its good for the blood flow
2 track your line value
3 dont ever track, bet, consider another game until you know you have an edge.
4. Dont ever believe you are better at handicapping the games than the entire betting community.

if you dont know if you have an edge, read this https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...P2JMBSBHBWEP88

I wish you the best of luck

[Gaze73]

Think of it like this: you have a selection of possible bets, and you chop out all the low edge ones. Your RoI rises as a result, but you make less money overall.

If you have a model that's working long-term, you take all the meat on the table, even the little scraps - they're not remotely as profitable, but there are a lot of them.

I understand that, but if you really wanted all the scraps you'd have to make 50 bets a day, and I really doubt you're doing that. The bottom line is that I can make at least 15% roi with 10 bets a day at even odds long term, that clown probably makes 4% and thinks what a pro he is. Also less bets means you can stake bigger, so the scraps really are just a waste of time, and for me roi below 5% is scraps.

[tsty]

50 bets a day is nothing

once again showcasing your lack of knowledge

who would you rather be ?

A guy doing 10 mill in bets with 3% edge or a guy doing 1 mill in bets with 10% edge? who is the superior bettor?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The bottom line is that I can make at least 15% roi with 10 bets a day at even odds long term .....

Starting with a bankroll of $100, betting half-Kelly, that would turn into a median $206,841 after three months. After a year the entire betting industry would be bankrupt.


It might be an idea to actually hit those targets first - you're basically assuming the equivalent of winning the lottery.

Here's what I guess has happened: you have leakage in your models, so the results are meaningless.

[Gaze73]

50 bets a day is nothing

once again showcasing your lack of knowledge

who would you rather be ?

A guy doing 10 mill in bets with 3% edge or a guy doing 1 mill in bets with 10% edge? who is the superior bettor?

How about a third option? Guy doing 30 mil with 10% edge? You see, higher edge means better win rate and higher roi therefore shorter losing runs and lower bank drawdown, which allows for higher staking.

You stake $100 with a 3% edge to win $3 30 times a day to make $90. I stake $300 with a 10%(really lowballing here) edge 10 times a day to make $300. Less bets, less variance, more profit. 3% edge is shit.

[Gaze73]

Starting with a bankroll of $100, betting half-Kelly, that would turn into a median $206,841 after three months. After a year the entire betting industry would be bankrupt.


It might be an idea to actually hit those targets first - you're basically assuming the equivalent of winning the lottery.

Here's what I guess has happened: you have leakage in your models, so the results are meaningless.

I guess Pinnacle can pack their bags because there's a new sheriff in town.

[danshan11]

Nobody knows if you have an edge including you, dont you think you should know that before you claim the hall of fame?

[Gaze73]

I know I have an edge. Did you ever pick a +400 dog thinking it should be favorite and it wins by 3 goals? Sure I get these like once or twice a week but they're there because the market is stupid.

[danshan11]

well gaze your example means nothing but if you know you got an edge you are golden, best of luck! did you read that article BTW?

[Gaze73]

Yes I read it but it's irrelevant because I make profit on the market's stupidity.

[danshan11]

if the market was stupid dont you think it would be drained of cash and gone? why if its stupid is it still around?

[Gaze73]

Because people keep depositing again and again.

[Gaze73]

They say about 98-99% of sports bettors are losers, and yet these losers keep pouring billions into bookies pockets. Human stupidity at its finest.

[danshan11]

Because people keep depositing again and again.

yes people just like you, who think because they picked a few long shots they can beat the effecient market over time and they just cant.

[danshan11]

Gaze you are just flat wrong, I tried to be nice and tell you nicely but reality is you have very little knowledge of how the market works and lack the research necessary to even really be discussing these type of issues and you lack the openness to even listen to some people that have experience, skill and knowledge. You are basically insulting the whole premise of sports betting as a pro, you are discounting the skill it requires. You think anyone that can multiply their ROI in excel can just win. WE all know that if it were that simple it would not even exist. I am sorry I am being harsh but you need it or you will lose the little money you have and tons of time that people cant afford to waste. Study dude long and hard before you comment again on the market being stupid!

[Gaze73]

You know why I lost my bankroll? Because while I was creating my systems and collecting statistically significant data for the past few years (on horses mostly), I wasted my money on "professional" services and each and every one of them turned out to be a money burner. They lure you in with the next big thing that has the best record you've ever seen but after you sign up you're lucky if it breaks even. And when you're like "I'm going to be disciplined and follow every pick with the same stake even through a losing run" the losing run just never ends. There's nothing better than winning with your own picks because you know the exact reason why you picked them and how they should perform. I spent at least 1000 hours in the past 3 months researching soccer, you think I haven't noticed how stupid the market is by now?

[danshan11]

read this book dude
How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar: The Truth About Sports Tipsters

[danshan11]

that book will be the best 10 dollars you ever spent

[danshan11]

You know why I lost my bankroll? Because while I was creating my systems and collecting statistically significant data for the past few years (on horses mostly), I wasted my money on "professional" services and each and every one of them turned out to be a money burner. They lure you in with the next big thing that has the best record you've ever seen but after you sign up you're lucky if it breaks even. And when you're like "I'm going to be disciplined and follow every pick with the same stake even through a losing run" the losing run just never ends. There's nothing better than winning with your own picks because you know the exact reason why you picked them and how they should perform. I spent at least 1000 hours in the past 3 months researching soccer, you think I haven't noticed how stupid the market is by now?

NO, the only reason you lost your bankroll is because you dont know how to calculate an edge if you did you would not have followed those picks because those picks did not have an edge on the market, learn how to calculate your edge!

[Gaze73]

I don't need to calculage the edge when someone has stats like this. But the last 50% roi guy I followed went straight to -40% and never recovered.

[danshan11]

dude of course you do need to calculate edge, everyone has hot streaks, I sometimes win 20-30 games in a row and then lose 30, you need to calculate the edge on every single bet, you dont need an MIT degree to do it on the surface just do this

take a tipster for example
say they give you ten picks
Bears +6 closes Bears +7 BAD
Yankeees +140 closes +120 GOOD
Dodgers -200 closes -180 BAD
Nuggets -9 closes -6 BAD
and you pretty much need to see good on 7 out of 10 or more if not the guy dont know shit!
yes you need a way larger sample size but this is enough to even know if he is worth investigating further if he dont have 7 or 8 good out of last 10 skip the guy AND DONT PAY ATTENTION TO WINS, LOSSES, ROI, or any other crap, this simple method will lead you down better paths in the future and is a good idea for your own picks as well!

[Gaze73]

So the graph above is a 12 month hot streak? These stats are based on closing prices, so apparently he has a 59% edge over the dumb market.

[danshan11]

did you not even read what I wrote?

[danshan11]

AND DONT PAY ATTENTION TO WINS, LOSSES, ROI, or any other crap, this simple method will lead you down better paths in the future and is a good idea for your own picks as well!