Edge against an effecient market?

[SilverSpoon111]

at the end of the day he is only betting $50 per game

there is a reason for that

just waiting for the link to his private skype chat where you need to $30 a month

[danshan11]

at the end of the day he is only betting $50 per game

there is a reason for that

just waiting for the link to his private skype chat where you need to $30 a month

I think they are both good guys, Gaze believes in his system and wants to win with it, I just want him to know how to gauge if he has a real edge and its not some luck, he might and does not even know it, he needs to know if he does or does not.
Silver is a good guy too, he just thinks you can overpower the system and win, if you hope hard enough that might be enough and of course it is not, this game is about setting a fair line and that only gives you a chance of winning does not guarantee it!

[oilcountry99]

Pinnacle posted this article...relates to danshan11 topic exactly.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/odds-movement-profit-expectation/XQP2JMBSBHBWEP88

[danshan11]

Directions silver
Step 0 Read the whole article
Step 1 Read it once say "hell no"
Step 2 Read it again and say "who is this guy"
Step 3 read it again and say "but does he know my system is 100wins and 1 loss in last 101 games?"
Step 4 read it again and if you are thinking any of the above go back to step 0

and Gaze just make sure you incorporate the line in everything thing you track, use this info in this article to start tracking the "right" data not the useless stuff like wins and losses, think of it like this me and you have a "fair" coin and we are flipping for +105 to you, no matter what happened before you would keep playing and never stop as long as I give you +105 on the flips and we know the coin is fair. you ever see the casino shut the doors and say no we are not taking slot players today because we are having a bad streak of luck, heck no they know an edge is an edge win lose or draw, so if you know your edge is real and proveable play that bitch!

[Gaze73]

I told you I don't care about beating the line. Look, I'll give you an opposite example. This system was literally created to find bad favorites, and surprise surprise, it finds bad favorites. According to your theory this is just variance and I should now expect roughly 32(82) winners in the next 40(140) bets to get 50/50 results. Coin flip calculator says it's just 1 in 1246 that these results are based on luck. I'll take those chances and confidently bet money against these favorites.

[danshan11]

I told you I don't care about beating the line. Look, I'll give you an opposite example. This system was literally created to find bad favorites, and surprise surprise, it finds bad favorites. According to your theory this is just variance and I should now expect roughly 32(82) winners in the next 40(140) bets to get 50/50 results. Coin flip calculator says it's just 1 in 1246 that these results are based on luck. I'll take those chances and confidently bet money against these favorites.

no the idea that past results has anything to do with upcoming results is flawed.

if you hit 100 dogs in a row and your record is now 100-0 and say the next dog is +150 to win your chances of winning that next dog is 40% the other 100 games you won or loss dont matter or play into this game and that 40% is before margin so really like 39% chance of winning.

[danshan11]

if I win 10 coin flips in a row my chances of winning the next coin flip is still 50-50 it never changes

[danshan11]

if you bet against those favorites with no edge on those bets, you will lose by the margin under normal circumstances and if you ran that system you have and it truly has no edge omitting variance your system will lose by margin overall and the next bet it picks has the exact same chance to win as the closing line minus margin.

[danshan11]

look at my system results and tell me what is the chance I win my next WNBA game or MX soccer game?

League	Win %	W	L	P	CLV	Net CLV	Units	Net Win%
MX	100.00%	1	0	0	6.14%	5.15%	1.00	54.70%
MLS	33.33%	2	4	0	0.98%	0.04%	-1.20	-16.87%
CFL	57.14%	4	3	0	1.02%	-0.66%	0.80	5.27%
MLB	38.89%	14	22	2	0.96%	-0.04%	-8.75	-11.59%
WNBA	47.37%	9	10	0	2.23%	0.55%	-1.62	-5.33%
Total	43.48%	30	39	2	1.38%	1.01%	-9.77	-7.66%
					ROI	-13.06%

[Gaze73]

no the idea that past results has anything to do with upcoming results is flawed.

if you hit 100 dogs in a row and your record is now 100-0 and say the next dog is +150 to win your chances of winning that next dog is 40% the other 100 games you won or loss dont matter or play into this game and that 40% is before margin so really like 39% chance of winning.

You're wrong. If you pick a RANDOM +150 dog, there's probably a 40% chance it'll win. But if you pick a +150 dog with a system that picked 100 winners in a row, there's at least a 90% chance it'll win. Of course that kind of edge is impossible but the point is that not every +150 dog has 40% chance to win, some of them have 70% and some have 20% and a good capper can tell which is which. When a +700 dog wins 5:0, do you really think the fav was priced correctly before the game? Do you think the people who bet on that dog were just taking a pointless -5% roi gamble? Or could it be that they actually had a good reason to take the dog? Oh and I just added 2 more favs to the loser's list, Norrkoping and Landskrona, guess I got lucky.

[danshan11]

You're wrong. If you pick a RANDOM +150 dog, there's probably a 40% chance it'll win. But if you pick a +150 dog with a system that picked 100 winners in a row, there's at least a 90% chance it'll win. Of course that kind of edge is impossible but the point is that not every +150 dog has 40% chance to win, some of them have 70% and some have 20% and a good capper can tell which is which. When a +700 dog wins 5:0, do you really think the fav was priced correctly before the game? Do you think the people who bet on that dog were just taking a pointless -5% roi gamble? Or could it be that they actually had a good reason to take the dog? Oh and I just added 2 more favs to the loser's list, Norrkoping and Landskrona, guess I got lucky.

so you are saying so we are clear, the following
A your system is better by a ton than the worldwide betting (paying) consensus?
B a +150 dog is truly a -150 fave in sheeps clothing?
please tell me those 2 things are true and we can continue working this out from there.

[Gaze73]

Not exactly, but that's the general idea. I don't expect a +40% roi edge long term but I'm pretty sure I can do at least 20%, because I'm 100% sure these favs are some of the worst you can find.

[danshan11]

Not exactly, but that's the general idea. I don't expect a +40% roi edge long term but I'm pretty sure I can do at least 20%, because I'm 100% sure these favs are some of the worst you can find.

imagine take the yankees right now and change the line by 100 cents, what do you think what would happen within 5 minutes?

you got to understand how the lines work right?
a book has a guy in a little red bowtie(required) and really thick glasses and he sits 24 hours a day working up lines and the book sports manager reviews them at a glance and says post it!
they put those lines out and they are shivering cause they dont trust that little guy in the redbow tie so they put super low limits on the bets and move the line fast
say bowtie guy says +150
and frank the sharp says hell no i got -150 he keeps betting it over and over and ten other frank the sharp type guys do the same and they pound on it until one of two things happens, the book moves the line out of their bet zone or they close the line .
so if this happens too heavy and bowtie guy is way way off too often, they take his bowtie and bring in a better version of bowtie guy and try again.
in otherwords if any line was a +150 and in anyway shape or form could or should be a +100 bet it will get pounded like my hot sister on prom night after too many drinks, over and over!
I am gonna say this in CAPS, there is no such thing in the major markets NO WAY IN HELL A +150 IS A +100 BET, it does not exist.

[danshan11]

I know what you are really trying to say
you are saying look dude I know how to cap some games and I can beat the line. I know if they put the Pats at +6 you know better and take the Pats and more time than not you will kick ass and win. I understand that and that is where 99% of bettors get it so so wrong. The line is +6 not because that is a fair line, that is the voting consensus of some sharps and some nerfs, they battle each other and that battle is powerful because they both pound at the line until it closes and the actual people who know wont let it close at +6 if its suppose to be +7 they will keep betting until it is +7 if it is suppose to be.

Rule #1 dont think who will win, think what line is fair and once you know what line is fair, you know who and what to bet.

[Gaze73]

I am gonna say this in CAPS, there is no such thing in the major markets NO WAY IN HELL A +150 IS A +100 BET, it does not exist.

Just today there was this dog Tillerbyen. Pinnacle opened at +145, closing line was +259. They won 0:7 on the road. So either a 1 in 1000 event just happened, or both the linesmakers and sharp franks couldn't possibly be more wrong, they bet against them all day when Tillerbyen was in fact a fav in sheeps clothing. You think they actually only had 25% chance to win and scored 7 lucky goals?

[danshan11]

yes that is pure luck, is this luck

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=line%3E11+and+W+and+team%3DGiants+and+season%3D2017&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

of course this is pure 100% luck it means nothing, it is just luck

[danshan11]

Just today there was this dog Tillerbyen. Pinnacle opened at +145, closing line was +259. They won 0:7 on the road. So either a 1 in 1000 event just happened, or both the linesmakers and sharp franks couldn't possibly be more wrong, they bet against them all day when Tillerbyen was in fact a fav in sheeps clothing. You think they actually only had 25% chance to win and scored 7 lucky goals?

things like this look common place and have some trend but in reality they are just anomalies of tons of tons of games and they stick out

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Not exactly, but that's the general idea. I don't expect a +40% roi edge long term but I'm pretty sure I can do at least 20% .....

Sorry, but reality check: you're not going to get anywhere close to that.

[Gaze73]

That isn't anywhere near close to my example, just an ordinary dog win. Show me a NFL dog winning 50:0, and if it happened, would you bet against them in a rematch next day at -150? Hell, I'd give you a private line at +150 to sweeten the deal because I'd think the dog will win again.

[Gaze73]

Sorry, but reality check: you're not going to get anywhere close to that.

Just because you can't doesn't mean no one can. We'll see by the end of the year who gets the last laugh.

[danshan11]

That isn't anywhere near close to my example, just an ordinary dog win. Show me a NFL dog winning 50:0, and if it happened, would you bet against them in a rematch next day at -150? Hell, I'd give you a private line at +150 to sweeten the deal because I'd think the dog will win again.

Ok Gaze, I was hoping you were just a little off course, I did not think you were a flat earther, its ok good luck and you come back and I hope you win like no one ever has. Good luck buddy!

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Just because you can't doesn't mean no one can. We'll see by the end of the year who gets the last laugh.

OK, think of it like this: starting with $100 bankroll, at 20% edge, 500 bets at half-Kelly has a median expected bankroll of $450k.

Everyone when they start thinks they've hit the jackpot at some stage - it never works out like that, the markets aren't that soft.

Like I said, a reality check. I've done this for a living for quite a few years.

[Gaze73]

Ok Gaze, I was hoping you were just a little off course, I did not think you were a flat earther, its ok good luck and you come back and I hope you win like no one ever has. Good luck buddy!

So you'd bet against that dog which just won 50:0 (or 7:0 in soccer) and I'm the crazy one? Guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

[Gaze73]

OK, think of it like this: starting with $100 bankroll, at 20% edge, 500 bets at half-Kelly has a median expected bankroll of $450k.

Everyone when they start thinks they've hit the jackpot at some stage - it never works out like that, the markets aren't that soft.

Like I said, a reality check. I've done this for a living for quite a few years.

What kind of staking is that? Half a bankroll per bet? I plan to go with 5%.

[danshan11]

So you'd bet against that dog which just won 50:0 (or 7:0 in soccer) and I'm the crazy one? Guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

if I knew there was an edge yes I would bet against the dog every single time until my bankroll was gone, I like to play craps its a losing house edge game but I love it, looking at hot ass waitresses and the thrill of the box, I love dice but I do not have an edge and many night I have come home ahead, now you think somehow I got an edge or was I just a lucky dude that session. It would be irresponsible to tail me my next session cause you will lose your ass just like I will, at craps and without beating the line in sports, I have no edge.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

What kind of staking is that? Half a bankroll per bet? I plan to go with 5%.

No, it's Kelly with a 0.50 multiplier. Smooths out the rollercoaster a bit.

5% will wipe you out at some stage - I'd say go with 1%, or 2% max. There's no hurry ...... if you really do have even 10% edge, you're going to be insanely rich.

Golden rule of betting is that over-staking kills you. There's a clean mathematical proof of this: you can have the biggest edge imaginable, but if you stake too large, you have zero or even negative EG.

[Gaze73]

No, it's Kelly with a 0.50 multiplier. Smooths out the rollercoaster a bit.

5% will wipe you out at some stage - I'd say go with 1%, or 2% max. There's no hurry ...... if you really do have even 10% edge, you're going to be insanely rich.

Golden rule of betting is that over-staking kills you. There's a clean mathematical proof of this: you can have the biggest edge imaginable, but if you stake too large, you have zero or even negative EG.

Well, you're making me optimistic, I'm gonna be rich sooner than I thought! I'm 100% sure I can get 10% at the very least, even my mediocre systems can do that. I can easily start with 5% and cap it later at €5 or €10k. Of course I'm not going to place €50k bets.

[danshan11]

What kind of staking is that? Half a bankroll per bet? I plan to go with 5%.

the 1 or 2% rule is not good
you need to stake according to your risk tolerance and also to your implied win%

[danshan11]

dont use your implied win%, use the implied win% of the book to determine your bankroll

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Well, you're making me optimistic, I'm gonna be rich sooner than I thought! I'm 100% sure I can get 10% at the very least ....

That would make you the greatest gambler in the history of the world. Or ..... you goofed with the numbers.

The likelihood it's the latter is why I say 1% or 2%. You'll find out whether it works soon enough.

[Gaze73]

10% roi is not a big deal, many people can do that. And I cracked the horse racing market already so I thought I can crack soccer too. I was just sick of the variance with horses. I like to stake big and the occasional 20 losing favorites in a row are not fun. See here, this was my best horse system. I packed my bags after that breakeven part at the end.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Well, I tried.

[Gaze73]

What, you think I just keep getting lucky in everything I do? You know I have 3 groups of favs - max confidence, medium confidence, low confidence. I expected that the first group would make profit on both ML and -1.5 spread. I expected the second group to break even. I expected the third group to bleed money. It turns out, the first group makes money on ML and spread, the second group breaks even at ML and spread, and the third group bleeds money. It's almost as if there's a difference between a max confidence fav at -200 and a low confidence fav at -200. But that couldn't possibly be true, because of muh efficient market.

[tsty]

then why are you betting $50 per game? why are you not a millionaire yet then?

you have no fking idea what you are talking about

there are professionals making close to millions in edge every year that have run 10k+ break even

[Gaze73]

Because I'm broke and unemployed, and still testing and perfecting my systems, that's why. But I'd bet my first born that I can get 10% roi on the closing lines. I've been doubted by everyone for years, but I'll show them...I'll show them all!