Edge against an effecient market?

**danshan11** · 08-04-18, 06:08 PM

what is the difference between sports and roulette if you bet at the closing line? they have about the exact same margin

**tsty** · 08-04-18, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Here's a simple math-based system I've been testing since June. Is 12% roi after 294 picks just luck? After eliminating some odds ranges I reduced it to 155 picks and 17% roi.

If you are using a "system" then yes you are lucky. Positive variance.

Also there is a big difference between ROI and Yield.

**Gaze73** · 08-05-18, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

what is the difference between sports and roulette if you bet at the closing line? they have about the exact same margin

Ok so you're saying you can't make money on the closing lines, correct? You're saying that when Germany lost to South Korea, Germany actually had 80% chance to win, they just happened to to lose 2:0 to a +2000 dog in that particular game, and it was a 50/50 shot my Korea +2 handicap would win. If they were to play 9 more games, Germany would've probably won 8 of them, right? There's more - They also lost to +700 Mexico, to +600 Austria, won only by 1 goal against +10000(yes, 100 to 1 dog) Saudi Arabia. It's almost as if *gasp* they were vastly overrated and the closing lines were not their true odds at all. But according to you the closing lines were spot on and Germany just happened to get mega unlucky in 4 games.

**Gaze73** · 08-05-18, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by tsty

If you are using a "system" then yes you are lucky. Positive variance.

Also there is a big difference between ROI and Yield.

I dare you to make a system that creates a similar graph. I have a dozen more where that came from. How likely do you think a system that makes profit in 300 bets is about to crash down to lose it all? I'd say it's 1%.

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 07:53 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Ok so you're saying you can't make money on the closing lines, correct? You're saying that when Germany lost to South Korea, Germany actually had 80% chance to win, they just happened to to lose 2:0 to a +2000 dog in that particular game, and it was a 50/50 shot my Korea +2 handicap would win. If they were to play 9 more games, Germany would've probably won 8 of them, right? There's more - They also lost to +700 Mexico, to +600 Austria, won only by 1 goal against +10000(yes, 100 to 1 dog) Saudi Arabia. It's almost as if *gasp* they were vastly overrated and the closing lines were not their true odds at all. But according to you the closing lines were spot on and Germany just happened to get mega unlucky in 4 games.

sometimes the market does need to adjust for a team or teams that are overrated but it does. The thing you think is indicative is probably just luck. What I am saying is that if a game is -150 at closing, that the most accurate method we have is the closing line to tell us what the probability is over a large sample of games. Now I am not saying you cannot devise some system that creates an edge but I am saying that if you did and you did indeed have an edge with it long term. your system
A would need to be taking into account some relevant data that the entire betting consensus is not.
B would need to ensure whatever this relevant data was that it was such a significant factor that could overcome a margin

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 08:10 AM

look at my results since I came here to SBR and started keeping a record, what does my record tell you?

League	Win %	W	L	P	CLV	Net CLV	Units
MX	100.00%	1	0	0	6.14%	5.15%	1.00
MLS	33.33%	2	4	0	0.98%	0.04%	-1.20
CFL	57.14%	4	3	0	1.02%	-0.66%	0.80
MLB	38.24%	13	21	2	1.11%	0.11%	-8.81
WNBA	42.86%	6	8	0	2.76%	1.08%	-2.55
Total	41.94%	26	36	2	1.53%	1.14%	-10.75

**tsty** · 08-05-18, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

I dare you to make a system that creates a similar graph. I have a dozen more where that came from. How likely do you think a system that makes profit in 300 bets is about to crash down to lose it all? I'd say it's 1%.

you would be surprised if you did the math

you realise there are people who have won the powerball before right? yet you think making money ovet a tiny sample size makes you profitable lol

**tsty** · 08-05-18, 09:18 AM

system bettors are the clowns watching baccarat results thinking it affects future results

if you cant tell me the probability of the event your betting on then its useless

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by tsty

system bettors are the clowns watching baccarat results thinking it affects future results

if you cant tell me the probability of the event your betting on then its useless

the problem is they think they can, unfortunately they are in lala land because they think because the Broncos won yesterday by 12 they are gonna win by 6 because the last 15 teams that won by 12 the next game won by 6. They also think pitchers that pitched well in their last day games will pitch well today because its a day game. They dont just think this, they bet it with real money!

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 09:31 AM

I think everyone who thinks they have a system should watch a coin flip simulator as it happens and watch the patterns it can look like you are onto something with 10 straight heads and bam five tails and a head a few times in a row but in the end 51-49 and that is a coin flip, I am shocked by the things people think about betting.
how can anyone who is sitting at home watching the nfl network and reading the last 5 games for each team and they think they have information that is better than the entire consensus of the betting world. FAF LMAO

**Gaze73** · 08-05-18, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by tsty

system bettors are the clowns watching baccarat results thinking it affects future results

if you cant tell me the probability of the event your betting on then its useless

Every time you place a bet it's a system bet, unless you make random picks. Now, if you make 500 picks according to system A, guess what, the 501st game is very likely to end similarly to the previous games. My system A had only 21% draws out of 300 picks, so now I can confidently never pick the draw whenever conditions for system A are met and I can confidently back the fav and grind the value.

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 10:26 AM

what would game 500 have to do with game 501?

do you have more information than the betting consensus on those games?
what is your clv on those 500 bets? You might be really talented and not even know it, some long term winners are and they dont know it

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 10:27 AM

@Gaze you know when I pick the draw, when the line shows me I will have an edge and I will play the draw every time I have a real edge against the line

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 10:29 AM

you know the only time I wont play the draw is when the line shows I have zero edge or negative edge because of margin, there is no other way to long term successfully bet for 999,999 out of 100,000 bettors and I am smart enough to know I am not the 1 out of 100k that has an edge on the closing line and sees bad lines at close.

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 10:31 AM

the simple thing with stats to back it up is that the closing line is effecient and if it is effecient how can you beat it long term with a margin. that would be like saying you are good at coin flips!

**Gaze73** · 08-05-18, 10:37 AM

The draw is very tricky, but the rule of thumb is if the favorite is bad you should take dog +0.5 instead of the draw. EV is the same or better and the variance is lower. Nothing is worse than betting the draw and seeing the +800 dog win 2:0. Anyway, today I have 2 systems saying New York Red Bulls has roughly 40% chance to win, so I'm taking LA +0.5 at +155 and we'll see how it goes.

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 10:42 AM

Gaze you seem like a smart guy and someone that enjoys betting, if you want to make money know your edge! Biggest and boldest thing you need on those spreadsheets is CLV dude!

**tsty** · 08-05-18, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Every time you place a bet it's a system bet, unless you make random picks. Now, if you make 500 picks according to system A, guess what, the 501st game is very likely to end similarly to the previous games. My system A had only 21% draws out of 300 picks, so now I can confidently never pick the draw whenever conditions for system A are met and I can confidently back the fav and grind the value.

take an online statistics course

you are wrong on all fronts

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 11:32 AM

tsty do I know you from anywhere else twitter BT???

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 11:33 AM

come on silverspoon I know you are just reading this and got some street knowledge on the subject?

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-05-18, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

I dare you to make a system that creates a similar graph. I have a dozen more where that came from. How likely do you think a system that makes profit in 300 bets is about to crash down to lose it all? I'd say it's 1%.

Gaze is there some way to get a hold of you cant message on here would love to discuss something with you.

**KVB** · 08-05-18, 12:44 PM

Good seasons of CFL have show graphs a that look like solid stock charts, I believe I've posted those in previous seasons.

One of my CFL forecasts tends to predict line movement and beats the closer the vast majority of the time.

This year it is 12-0-1 against the closer, with one line closing where it opened. That line was a 19.5 point line that jumped higher toward the forecast but such a huge line was bound to get hit, and it eventually went back to where it started. They won by only 17.

It may beat the closer often, but it certainly has a good start this season.

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 12:58 PM

the issue with CFL lines is A the margin is big and B the market is effecient but not nearly NFL effecient C you say it beat the line but that caan be tricky when you say for example +11 -110 and what was that +10.5 at for the moneyline which actually was still +11 -110, point spread lines can be very tricky you are not comparing apples to apples, you have to compare the moneyline to moneyline for the same number you bet at BUT with all that said on the surface it looks very solid BUT more negativity with American football it takes 20 years to get a decent sample size to decide anything! That is why we really need to be very careful trusting ideas and or touts with something with a tiny sample size. NO offense but it does look very good! thanks for the post, I say keep on with that one !

5Dimes

-11

-110

95.5%

5Dimes

-11

-110

95.5%

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Good seasons of CFL have show graphs a that look like solid stock charts, I believe I've posted those in previous seasons.

One of my CFL forecasts tends to predict line movement and beats the closer the vast majority of the time.

This year it is 12-0-1 against the closer, with one line closing where it opened. That line was a 19.5 point line that jumped higher toward the forecast but such a huge line was bound to get hit, and it eventually went back to where it started. They won by only 17.

It may beat the closer often, but it certainly has a good start this season.

the real question is why does silver not want to reach out to you about this system LOL

**KVB** · 08-05-18, 01:02 PM

Yeah, there is more detailed info on what I deem the price of each half point to be and can calculate that as well but for the CFL so far, the lines have moved enough for that to be sufficient for SBR purposes right now.

The market agreement on even the .5 difference was overwhelming for a closer, so I didn't dig deeper for the thread, yet.

But good points for sure.

**KVB** · 08-05-18, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

the real question is why does silver not want to reach out to you about this system LOL

Guy knows better than to try to talk to me anymore, I shut him down.

He's a lying troll and continued to lie when JJ Gold didn't call his name on the POTM video.

I won't give him the time a day anymore, not even in the think tank.

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 01:05 PM

you dont want to use half point calculators for this purpose to calculate line value you need actual pinny lines that closed on that number use oddsportal.
say you bet Bulldogs -10 -110 once the game starts go to oddsportal pull up the game and find the cost of -10 when it closed, that is a way more accurate way to predict actual line value and dont forget the disgusting high margin on the CFL, it is brutal high, hard to beat, but i think you did beat it on multiple occassions, better than me!

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 01:06 PM

why didnt anyone call my name out on the poster of the month LOL, just kidding!

**KVB** · 08-05-18, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

you dont want to use half point calculators for this purpose to calculate line value you need actual pinny lines that closed on that number use oddsportal.
say you bet Bulldogs -10 -110 once the game starts go to oddsportal pull up the game and find the cost of -10 when it closed, that is a way more accurate way to predict actual line value and dont forget the disgusting high margin on the CFL, it is brutal high, hard to beat, but i think you did beat it on multiple occassions, better than me!

I do it multiple ways as well, but stay consistent for whatever I track at SBR.

I may get into more detail with that tracking in the CFL thread itself, including average line error, once we get a few more games under our belt. I will do that for both CFL forecasts.

In that thread we are working with two different forecasting methods, both of which should beat the spread handily this year, but I've warned multiple times about a weakness in the sharp forecast Total predictions for this season.

Tune in if you are betting CFL, love to have the input.

It is a thread meant to teach as well, and types of and what is tracked is often dealt with.

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 01:21 PM

I surely will thanks for the invite!

**Gaze73** · 08-05-18, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by SilverSpoon111

Gaze is there some way to get a hold of you cant message on here would love to discuss something with you.

Well your PM is disabled so... Anyway, I have more testing to do. In a month or two I'll know if I'm gonna finally be rich when the good systems confirm their stability.

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-05-18, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Well your PM is disabled so... Anyway, I have more testing to do. In a month or two I'll know if I'm gonna finally be rich when the good systems confirm their stability.

Wanted you to see if you can run a NBA system i have i think its very profitable but don't have concrete evidence.

**danshan11** · 08-05-18, 03:53 PM

I can tell you if it is valid or not, give me some info on it and I can tell you if it is good or has hope for sure

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-05-18, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I can tell you if it is valid or not, give me some info on it and I can tell you if it is good or has hope for sure

Why would i just give you it lol i think it really is profitable i no i cant tell with only the "short term" numbers i have on it but it's different then any other angle ive ever heard it's not really based on stats more of human tendencies and it's been profitable up until this point.

**SilverSpoon111** · 08-05-18, 04:09 PM

One of those things i have in my gut that tells me i really onto something idn if you no that feeling but thats what i have with this NBA sytem only has very very very few numbers that come into play to so wouldnt be hard to backtest 10 years back.