Edge against an effecient market?

[danshan11]

brother you give me a more important topic in sports betting than clv and stake method and I will learn it discuss it and fight about!

[danshan11]

dude there are what 100,000 members or more on this forum, I think you should understand that 99,991 of those are not that advanced or pinnacle would be closed down!

[danshan11]

most people in the betting online world know me
98% think I am an idiot
100% think I talk to much and annoying
2% think man this dude knows what the penetrate he is saying even though he chats like a 2 year old

[danshan11]

2% think man this dude knows what the heck he is talking about even though he chats like a 2 year old, sorry autocorrect!

how do I edit posts???

[Derailer]

dude there are what 100,000 members or more on this forum, I think you should understand that 99,991 of those are not that advanced or pinnacle would be closed down!

Yes, but you traffic in the more advanced areas. The problem for the average bettor is not a lack of knowledge where it comes to betting so much as it is an inability to match their bankroll with the amount they want to bet. It is not so much that they do not know the problems they have as a gambler or what makes a good bet. And even if they don't have CLV, they still like a $10 parlay.

[Barrakuda]

IMHO DrH is a jerk and rude dude BUT I think he is a very talented baseball capper who got zapped by the variance bug! but his CLV was slightly pushed by the strong following that helped move lines his way!

Well, if markets are truly efficient, you can't argue that a small group of people impacted the closing line hours before game time. Their action, if it moved the line excessively, should be offset by opposing action to make the closing line perfectly efficient.

All this, according to the efficient market hypothesis nutjobs. As someone who has made a living strictly from inefficiencies in trading and sports for decades (not arbs, but edges), I would submit that no market is efficient.

[Barrakuda]

Yes, but you traffic in the more advanced areas. The problem for the average bettor is not a lack of knowledge where it comes to betting so much as it is an inability to match their bankroll with the amount they want to bet. It is not so much that they do not know the problems they have as a gambler or what makes a good bet. And even if they don't have CLV, they still like a $10 parlay.

Nah, the problem is finding an edge, not sizing bets. 99.9% have zero edge. for the 0.1%, BR mgmt is important but nowhere near as precise a science as people make it out to be.

[Derailer]

Nah, the problem is finding an edge, not sizing bets. 99.9% have zero edge. for the 0.1%, BR mgmt is important but nowhere near as precise a science as people make it out to be.

Edge is a problem for anybody. The biggest problem for almost all losing gamblers is that they bet way more than they should and wind up losing far more than they imagined. No discussion of bankroll management or CLV can change this. Not having an edge does not stop many from gambling.

[danshan11]

Nah, the problem is finding an edge, not sizing bets. 99.9% have zero edge. for the 0.1%, BR mgmt is important but nowhere near as precise a science as people make it out to be.

could not agree more, 99% of the BR talk is because they are struggling to find ways to win and think of course "its not my selections, I looked up the defense on the internet"

[danshan11]

" i make good picks, but I am just unlucky" all those arguments cause desperation and a feeling to try and find way to make it that their thought skill is not the problem

[danshan11]

Well, if markets are truly efficient, you can't argue that a small group of people impacted the closing line hours before game time. Their action, if it moved the line excessively, should be offset by opposing action to make the closing line perfectly efficient.

All this, according to the efficient market hypothesis nutjobs. As someone who has made a living strictly from inefficiencies in trading and sports for decades (not arbs, but edges), I would submit that no market is efficient.

2 different things
the live market is not effecient so we have deficiencies
the closed line is effecient

[danshan11]

Edge is a problem for anybody. The biggest problem for almost all losing gamblers is that they bet way more than they should and wind up losing far more than they imagined. No discussion of bankroll management or CLV can change this. Not having an edge does not stop many from gambling.

its not that they bet too much its that they dont use kelly if you have a negative edge which 99% do, how much should they bet, they are not following kelly.
if you have a negative edge your bet size is $0

[danshan11]

Well, if markets are truly efficient, you can't argue that a small group of people impacted the closing line hours before game time. Their action, if it moved the line excessively, should be offset by opposing action to make the closing line perfectly efficient.

All this, according to the efficient market hypothesis nutjobs. As someone who has made a living strictly from inefficiencies in trading and sports for decades (not arbs, but edges), I would submit that no market is efficient.

I thing the action was heavy enough to slightly sway the line and you combine that with DRH's skill and you got a great CLV, you can see it slipped slightly as his units sank and people backed off, you got to know the 5k for each signup went to what a hundred people minimum each buy in. Not to mention the number of touts that bought it and passed his picks on via twitter hoping he would kill it and they could charge their followers 3k each!

[Derailer]

its not that they bet too much its that they dont use kelly if you have a negative edge which 99% do, how much should they bet, they are not following kelly.
if you have a negative edge your bet size is $0

Betting $0 is not any fun danshan. Betting $10 is not much more fun. What is fun is betting $250. And once you've bet $250 you are not going back. People bet for action. There are few bettors that think they are going to come out winners except the newbies and they learn fast. But that doesn't stop them.

But most people on forums have read about CLV and BR management countless times and they can't apply it because the BR and the bet size don't mix.

[danshan11]

Rec bettors more power to them, I am the first guy to get drunk and go nuts on a craps table! I am a rec bettor at the craps table my bets are based on how much I got in my jeans and if super drunk maybe an atm pull or 2

[Derailer]

Rec bettors more power to them, I am the first guy to get drunk and go nuts on a craps table! I am a rec bettor at the craps table my bets are based on how much I got in my jeans and if super drunk maybe an atm pull or 2

There you go. But you always engage with the non-rec bettors as if they are rec bettors.

[Snowball]

2 different things
the live market is not effecient so we have deficiencies
the closed line is effecient

sportsbooks care about the aggregate sum, that agggregate must be balanced to
reduce exposure to any side. It is not based on time but on dollar volume. In a live market
there is much less oversight. Live bettors are much more impulsive and undisciplined,
like e-casino players, plus there are lower limits.. and wider spreads.. the inefficiencies are overcome.
I agree that the pre-game markets are efficient. To say a closing line is not efficient
would be to assume information only the sportsbooks have access to. If it were not efficient
for THEM, it would not be active. Once you start deciding what is efficient and what is not
based on EV that is not quantitatively demonstrable, you're in the realm of choosing winners,
which is handicapping. Handicapping is all I do. The line is of secondary importance to me.

[danshan11]

the house unfortunately need some sharp plays to try and suck up the over exposure on the big faves and popular teams but in reality the books are exposed on nearly every game, the issue is they will take that risk because with the margin they are beating the line

[danshan11]

There you go. But you always engage with the non-rec bettors as if they are rec bettors.

again same argument, 100,000 members and 99,991 are at the rec bettor level including me!

[Derailer]

again same argument, 100,000 members and 99,991 are at the rec bettor level including me!

I understand you are attempting to educate the masses. But you can't educate the masses by debating with the most advanced gamblers on these topics and even getting them confused about your points. You've got to engage the 99,991 in their threads.

Enough with the CLV.

[danshan11]

I am not trying to educate anyone, I wanted to have a discussion about it and hoped someone could enlighten me about it, I definitely dont know it all by a mile. I talk big but want to learn like everyone else. I dont know this is only my opinion

[danshan11]

sportsbooks care about the aggregate sum, that agggregate must be balanced to
reduce exposure to any side. It is not based on time but on dollar volume. In a live market
there is much less oversight. Live bettors are much more impulsive and undisciplined,
like e-casino players, plus there are lower limits.. and wider spreads.. the inefficiencies are overcome.
I agree that the pre-game markets are efficient. To say a closing line is not efficient
would be to assume information only the sportsbooks have access to. If it were not efficient
for THEM, it would not be active. Once you start deciding what is efficient and what is not
based on EV that is not quantitatively demonstrable, you're in the realm of choosing winners,
which is handicapping. Handicapping is all I do. The line is of secondary importance to me.

Snowball thanks for the info, so you cap a game and bet say -4 -110 and it closes at -4 -110 is that ok with you?

[danshan11]

anyone look at my last 20 bets or so, am I horrible, great, average or what, dont pull any punches I can take it

Date	Team	League	Close	Bet At	Bet Amt	Result	Line D	Notes	Potential	Est CLV%	Odds	Actual CLV
7/20	Yankees	MLB	104	-105	1.05	L		U8.5				-2.20%
7/20	Storm	WNBA	-110	-107	1.07	W		2.5				0.69%
7/20	Sky	WNBA	-114	-108	1.08	L		U181				1.35%
7/20	Sun	WNBA	-119	-107	1.07	W		U177				2.65%
7/21	Calgary	CFL	-104	-106	1.06	L		-19.5				-0.48%
7/21	Cardinals	MLB	-106	110	0.91	L						3.84%
7/21	Brewers	MLB	104	102	0.98	W		U8				-0.49%
7/21	Mariners	MLB	-115	-105	1.05	W		U9				2.27%
7/21	Atlanta	MLS	-219	-238	2.38	W						-1.76%
7/21	Liberty	WNBA	-120	-107	1.07	W		O163				2.85%
7/22	Athletics	MLB	108	111	0.90	L		U8				0.68%
7/22	Astros	MLB	-119	-120	1.20	L						-0.21%
7/22	Dream	WNBA	-116	-108	1.08	L		O163				1.78%
7/23	Phillies	MLB	-110	-100	1.00	L		U8.5				2.38%
7/23	Marlins	MLB	-113	-100	1.00	L		U8				3.05%
7/23	Nationals	MLB	-110	-104	1.04	L						1.40%
7/24	Mystics	WNBA	-103	-105	1.05	L		4.5				-0.48%
7/24	Liberty	WNBA	-128	-104	1.04	W		O155				5.16%
7/24	Phillies	MLB	114	-105	1.05	L		U7.5				-4.49%
7/24	Dream	WNBA	-125	-106	1.06	L		O155.5				4.10%
7/24	Rockies	MLB	-111	-107	1.07	P		O10				0.92%
7/25	Phillies	MLB	-102	-105	1.05	L		U8.5				-0.72%
7/25	Royals	MLB	-130	-100	1.00	W		O8.5				6.52%
7/25	Sky	WNBA	-105	-105	1.05	W		6.5				0.00%

[Derailer]

Snowball thanks for the info, so you cap a game and bet say -4 -110 and it closes at -4 -110 is that ok with you?

[danshan11]

I look at this and would say this guy is an average pro, he is beating the line by a hair and that is a good start

[danshan11]

i would tell this person with this sheet to get a bit sharper you are beating the margin but honestly not by enough to take big risks!

[danshan11]

why is that funny, I was being serious

[Snowball]

why is that funny, I was being serious

dan, I never follow a line after I place a bet
unless there is some sort of breaking news that
could impact the lineups or the venue.

[Derailer]

why is that funny, I was being serious

What do you think he is going to say? You know how it works as well as anyone. It is not preferable. It is not much concern on one bet. If they are all not moving, you've got problems.

[danshan11]

dan, I never follow a line after I place a bet
unless there is some sort of breaking news that
could impact the lineups or the venue.

that is awesome and I have heard of a few that do that you know Jets? he is a line hater and tells me I am dumb with all the line talk but he wins and consistently and laughs at me when i started crying line, LOL

[danshan11]

What do you think he is going to say? You know how it works as well as anyone. It is not preferable. It is not much concern on one bet. If they are all not moving, you've got problems.

i track lines like they are my lost kids!

[Derailer]

i track lines like they are my lost kids!

No one wants the line to go against them. But what if you start the NBA year 10-0 and every game goes against you, what are you going to do? Adjust the model? You are going to sit and see what happens next.

If the line goes against you on bets, you either think you were right or you were wrong. If you are curious enough, you look at the box score to try to find out. If people continue winning with lines going against them, they are going to have to assume they have an edge on the market until proven otherwise especially if the box scores are on their side.

[danshan11]

not me if I am not close to the line I throw the model away and get a new one, I am in that way kinda like a Kennedy

[Derailer]

not me if I am not close to the line I throw the model away and get a new one, I am in that way kinda like a Kennedy

Well, you might want to re-evaluate. If the games and the stats are on your side, you most likely have a good model and the market is going to adjust to you.

[danshan11]

Snowball you are a long term winner? like over 1000 plays winner? do you know in general if you are beating the line most of the time?