How Would I?

[FreeFall]

Figure out the odds of the NBA finals game going to a game 6 and a game 7? I noticed at 5dimes the odds are both +185 and +187. I'd like to bet both of those, but was wondering how I can go about figuring out if it's +eV or not.

Thank you.

[splash]

You can use the moneyline for game 1 as a guideline for all the games in LA. If you can guess the moneyline for games in Orlando, just multiply the win percentages and figure out every possible outcome.

[Ganchrow]

Figure out the odds of the NBA finals game going to a game 6 and a game 7? I noticed at 5dimes the odds are both +185 and +187. I'd like to bet both of those, but was wondering how I can go about figuring out if it's +eV or not.

First estimate single game win probabilities just as splash suggests and then see http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...readsheet.html.

[Pancho sanza]

estimate single game win probabilities http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...readsheet.html

Very hard to do for a 7 game series IMO. Sure you can assume the same price for all home games in LA/Orl, but is that correct?

I think psychology plays a big part in these series, ie, who wins the first game, whos leading the series at any given point etc.

Take Orlando/Cleve, with orlando up 3 games to 1, Cleveland had about a 10 - 15 % chance of coming back to win in 7 looking at historical results, yet the game by game lines suggested a much higher probability.

tread with caution.

[FreeFall]

Game # Team 1 Win Prob Team 2 Win Prob
1 100.000% 0.000%
2 100.000% 0.000%
3 36.000% 64.000%
4 40.000% 60.000%
5 65.000% 35.000%
6 38.000% 62.000%
7 60.000% 40.000%

This leaves my total at

Total 79.337% 20.663% 100.000%

but when you look at the line of +630 you will see that says ORL has a 13% chance to win the series implying I should take those odds right?

2nd question:
I have series to goto 6 games for +180
and series to goto 7 games for +180

These two bets would be sucker bets correct because
6 Games
6 games 15.762% 8.333% 24.095%
100/280 ~ 35% while the series predicts it to hit 24 % of the time making my bet -eV.

Same applies to 7games

7Games
7 games 18.495% 12.330% 30.825%
100/280 ~35% while the series predicts this to hit 30% of the time and I have odds saying it will hit 30% making this other bet I have -eV.

Are my thoughts correct?

[Pancho sanza]

game 5 and 6 odds are off, next 3 games are in Orlando.

[FreeFall]

game 5 and 6 odds are off, next 3 games are in Orlando.

good point . Assuming they were correct are my assumptions correct?

[Pancho sanza]

Teams down 2-0 have less than 13 % chance of winning the series.

http://www.whowins.com/tables/up20.html

[FreeFall]

Teams down 2-0 have less than 13 % chance of winning the series.

http://www.whowins.com/tables/up20.html

I saw that on TV, but I don't see how that is relevant or correlates with the series at hand.

[Pancho sanza]

I saw that on TV, but I don't see how that is relevant or correlates with the series at hand.

Its relevant because Orlando is down 2-0 in the current series.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I saw that on TV, but I don't see how that is relevant or correlates with the series at hand.

It doesn't. You can also use my Series Calculator. It allows you to use either home/away odds or probabilities or set individual game odds.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/190052-no-vig-series-calculator.html