NFL: Rushing Attempts as a Proxy for Winning

[BigDaddy777]

Using sportsdatabase.com, I came up with this formula -

season>2007 and D and p:L and DIV and week <17 and rushes - o:rushes >1

If you can simply prognosticate which team will make more rushing ATTEMPTS, you will OWN the NFL.
It's not easy since, as we all know, teams nursing a lead late in the game will generally rush it down the other team's throat irrespective if they're a 'rush-based' offense.

I used a divisional rivalry paradigm to narrow down the games we look at a bit.

But, if you're good at guessing just that, simply put the team into a 2 team 6pt teaser (paying even money)
In the last 100 games, going back to the beg of the 2008 season (which is far back as you need to test
any NFL paradigm given how rapidly the game has changed) you'd win 47 times out of 50.


Here's the link to results http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?...it=S+D+Q+L+%21

[Stallion]

Test it out this season!!! Start a thread, and keep track of the record every week. If you build it, they will come.....

[EXhoosier10]

It's not easy since, as we all know, teams nursing a lead late in the game will generally rush it down the other team's throat irrespective if they're a 'rush-based' offense.

End thread.
Guessing who has more rushing attempts at the end of the game is more or less the same as guessing who wins, except rushing attempts doesn't correlate with wins as well as wins correlate with wins.

[BigDaddy777]

"End thread." Screw You.

"Guessing who has more rushing attempts at the end of the game is more or less the same as guessing who wins,"

Maybe, maybe not. Some people might find it easier. Thus the post.

[BigDaddy777]

"Test it out this season!!! Start a thread, and keep track of the record every week."


If you're asking if I feel comfortable deciding in advance who will have more rushing attempts...the answer is no.

But, I'm thinking someone with more NFL acumen might.

As demonstrated in the link, if you are able to make this call, you win huge. In almost unprecedented numbers for NFL.

For the 2013 season, there were 22 plays. (A total of 11 two team 6pt teasers.)

It went 10-1.

More interesting was the 3 team 10 pt teasers. They NEVER lost until this past year. Out of 100 instances (33 plays) there finally was a loss late last season.

This isn't happenstance, there are solid football reasons for this stunning record.

But again, it all depends on your ability to call the rushing attempts.

It might be that you can't call all the games (due to reasons that have been iterated) but perhaps some games will pop up at you.

[capone1899]

How are you going to predict who will have more rushing attempts accurately? I'd bet the team that have less TO's also cover the spread at an alarming rate, but that's hard to predict before the game also

[BigDaddy777]

"How are you going to predict who will have more rushing attempts accurately"

Not sure, but I think it's a heckuva lot easier than prognosticating turnovers!

A game that comes to mind is the Saints vs The Jets early this past season. The Jets had way more rushing attempts and easily covered.

During pre-game, it was said that Rex Ryan planned to run the ball down their throat as they had successfully done to another opponent earlier in the season.

Now, that doesn't mean Ryan couldn't change up the game plan but, as it turns out, that's pretty much what the Jets did, and the results speak for themselves.

Again, I'm not saying it is an effortless task. But, people who dig deep into matchups may have a feel for this and it may be a much easier row to hoe than actually picking winners.

Do what you wish with this information. The genius of course is that I framed it among divisional rivals with the dog having a previous loss. Those are the parameters that produced such stunning results.

NOTE: Jets vs Saints was not included in the list of winners as it was not a divisional game.

[TomG]

Did you know that if you can also prognosticate which team will score more points you will OWN the NFL

[BigDaddy777]

"Did you know that if you can also prognosticate which team will score more points you will OWN the NFL"

Welcome to the internet, folks. Where retards OWN the comment section...

[LT Profits]

"Did you know that if you can also prognosticate which team will score more points you will OWN the NFL"

Welcome to the internet, folks. Where retards OWN the comment section...

BigDaddy, what these guys are trying to say, some subtly and some not so much () is that rushing attempts is not a predictive stat and that this is probably a fruitless venture.

[BigDaddy777]

"BigDaddy, what these guys are trying to say is that rushing attempts is not a predictive stat and that this is probably a fruitless venture."

Thanks for that translation. Helpful since most of us don't speak retardese.

PS You know what non-retards do, right? They look at a thread, and if they don't see any value, just move right along.

But retards? They just can't help themselves....

[Insert goofy animated icon of your choice here]

PSS In fact, rushing attempts CERTAINLY is a metric you can call. Under certain conditions, anyway...

[LT Profits]

PSS In fact, rushing attempts CERTAINLY is a metric you can call. Under certain conditions, anyway...

Meh, not really because there will be many cases where a passing team faces a running team, the passing team scores a couple of quick touchdowns and build a multi-score lead and then runs the ball more to protect the lead and often ends up with more rushing attempts than the running team. This is not nearly as easy to predict as you seem to be making it out to be.

[BigDaddy777]

Big Daddy writes: "It's not easy" (Post# 1)
Big Daddy writes: "I'm not saying it is an effortless task" (Post#7)

You write - "This is not nearly as easy to predict as you seem to be making it out to be."

Welcome...to Club Retard! lol

[BigDaddy777]

Folks,

I should have known better....

Enjoy!

[LT Profits]

Big Daddy writes: "It's not easy" (Post# 1)
Big Daddy writes: "I'm not saying it is an effortless task" (Post#7)

You write - "This is not nearly as easy to predict as you seem to be making it out to be."

Welcome...to Club Retard! lol

Dude, it seems I am the only one talking to you in a calm manner and I am just trying to save you time and energy. This approach won't work, especially when you consider that even passing teams run more when they have a lead. The guys that said trying to predict who will have more rushing attempts is equivalent to trying to predict who will win the game are telling you the truth, this is a worthless exercise.

[a4u2fear]

Ok, so you need to start building a model to predict who will have more rushing attempts. It will be near impossible to do since coaches game plan around injuries and opponents etc. often early events in games like TOs or quick TDs or unable to establish the run make the game plan change more rapidly and get away from the run.

[a4u2fear]

Also, check out Buffalo from 2013. Usually no matter how good or bad they did with running the ball each game they normally stuck to it. They averaged one the most rushing yards and attempts per game this year with not having one of the best Yards per rush

[Blax0r]

dude, it seems i am the only one talking to you in a calm manner and i am just trying to save you time and energy. This approach won't work, especially when you consider that even passing teams run more when they have a lead. the guys that said trying to predict who will have more rushing attempts is equivalent to trying to predict who will win the game are telling you the truth, this is a worthless exercise.

this.

[flsaders85]

Folks,

I should have known better. Given how superior my skills are to everyone else in this elite forum, I never should have challenged them with a task I was unwilling to take on. What was I thinking? lol

But, I have good news. Out of my generous magnanimity, I have decided to SPOON FED these....er...geniuses a Big Daddy gem that all but the MOST retarded should be able to comprehend.

Which means of course, that most of the commenters on this thread are plum SOL! bahaha

But for the rest, here is the link - http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ow-profit.html

Enjoy!

Let me know if you need a bookie

[BigDaddy777]

"Let me know if you need a bookie"

Sure, just post his full name, address and phone number right here.

If I don't need one, I'll refer him to someone who...er...might be interested in his endeavors!

[green7]

query for net rushing attempts/game

Those teams averaging more rushes per game net than their opponents hit about 50.5% ATS.

755-693-2 (0.97, 52.1%) 711-700-39 (0.00, 50.4%) avg line: -1.0 +6: 981-436-33 (69.2%) -6: 457-965-28 (32.1%) +10: 1130-298-22 (79.1%) -10: 299-1130-21 (20.9%) 726-704-20 (1.35, 50.8%) avg total: 41.3 +6: 499-937-14 (34.7%) -6: 971-449-30 (68.4%) +10: 361-1074-15 (25.2%) -10: 1137-297-16 (79.3%)'

As a dog they are less than 50%.

226-412-1 (-4.87, 35.4%) 309-312-18 (-0.18, 49.8%) avg line: 4.7 +6: 440-187-12 (70.2%) -6: 193-430-16 (31.0%) +10: 506-128-5 (79.8%) -10: 117-514-8 (18.5%) 309-318-12 (0.71, 49.3%) avg total: 41.4 +6: 208-426-5 (32.8%) -6: 419-207-13 (66.9%) +10: 154-478-7 (24.4%) -10: 487-145-7 (77.1%)

A better predictor is to go contrarian on net turnovers per game average....in other words the team with the worse turnover margin/game is a good predictor of spread coverage. So for example the Packers after 5 games have 5 turnovers and have created 10.......they have a turnover margin per game of 1. If they are playing the Bears and the Bears have 10 turnovers and have created 5...they have a turnover margin per game of -1.

Anything over .5/game is a play,..the play would be the Bears. As you can see below, it is close to a 55% winner over 20 years.

1088-1406-4 (-2.28, 43.6%) 1330-1103-65 (0.78, 54.7%) avg line: 3.1 +6: 1747-702-49 (71.3%) -6: 837-1609-52 (34.2%) +10: 1985-474-39 (80.7%) -10: 550-1900-48 (22.4%) 1226-1228-44 (0.79, 50.0%) avg total: 41.2 +6: 815-1646-37 (33.1%) -6: 1686-779-33 (68.4%) +10: 576-1890-32 (23.4%) -10: 1948-521-29 (78.9%)

27.5 111.6

[green7]

adding rushing results to net turnovers/game

If one adds going contrarian turnover margin with a better yards/rush of >=.1/game the percentage moves up to 56.4%.

NFL SDQL Query Access

515-605-1 (-0.68, 46.0%) 614-475-32 (1.47, 56.4%) avg line: 2.1 +6: 792-308-21 (72.0%) -6: 380-718-23 (34.6%) +10: 903-200-18 (81.9%) -10: 263-840-18 (23.8%) 551-553-17 (0.72, 49.9%) avg total: 41.2 +6: 369-735-17 (33.4%) -6: 749-355-17 (67.8%) +10: 272-839-10 (24.5%) -10: 861-242-18 (78.1%)

28.6 135.4 31.8 18.1 193.3 1.9 4.0 6.2 4.5 5.7 20.6 27.2 93.4 33.6 20.2 227.1 1.7 4.1 6.8 4.6 5.8 21.3