Odds on hitting 2 out of 3 games?

[Stocks]

If you hit 55% and bet 3 games in a parlay I think it comes out to 16.6% chance on hitting all 3 games. But what are the odds of hitting 2 of those 3 games?

[LT Profits]

3*(.55*.55*.45) = 40.8%

[Stocks]

ok cool thanks man.

So

3 out of 3 16.6%
2 out of 3 40.8%
1 out of 3 33.4%
o out of 3 9.2%

Would that be correct?

[cruzing vato]

40.83%.
There are 3 scenarios in a 3 game series where you have 2 wins and 1 loss. With 55% win percentage, you calculate .55 x .45. .55 x 3 (wwl, wlw, and lww) which equals 40.83%

[cruzing vato]

If push is an option, then it gets tricky, you have to figure what your odds of pushing are, and then does push push the entire parlay or just drop it one team.. but you have now 27 possible outcomes..3x3x3.

[LT Profits]

ok cool thanks man.

So

3 out of 3 16.6%
2 out of 3 40.8%
1 out of 3 33.4%
o out of 3 9.2%

Would that be correct?

Correct assuming no Pushes as cruzing vato said

[Stocks]

Does this math work for 4 games as well? I did it with 4 games and it either doesn't make sense or don't add up to 100%.

4 out of 4 9%
3 out of 4 30%
2 out of 4 25%
1 out of 4 20%
0 out of 4 4%

For the 0 out of 4 I went .45 x.45 x.45 x.45 = 4.1% (4.1% makes sense but it only adds up to 90%)

It would seem like the most common occurrence would be 2 out of 4 and would make sense if that was 35% instead of 25%.

[Kaabee]

there's only 1 way to lose all 4 and only 1 way to win all 4. there are 4 ways to hit 1 out of 4 and 3 out of 4. there are 6 ways to hit 2 out of 4.

just gotta multiply your odds by the number of ways that each can happen.

[LT Profits]

4 out of 4 and 0 out of 4 are the easy calculations.

3 out of 4, there are 4 possibilities and your answer looks right.

Same with 1 out of 4 and your answer looks right.

Now 2 out of 4, there are 6 possibilities so it is 6*(.55^2*.45^2) = 37%

And again, all if these calculations assume no pushes

[Stocks]

ok cool I got it now. Is there a quick or easy way of figuring out how many possibilities each scenario would have. I'm going to look at 5 gamers next and that would probably come in handy. Thanks

[cruzing vato]

Pascals theorem or triangle??Let me look for my advanced algebra book.You can just write each possibility out for now.With 5;WwwwwWwwwlWwwlwWwwllWwlwwWwlwlWallsWwl wlWlww... ahh you do it homie

[cruzing vato]

With 5 games, with 2 poss. Outcomes per game,The tot number of outcomes is 2 to the 5th power, or 32 (2x2*2*2*2).Using pascals? Theory or some sh.t, 1 scenario gives 5 wins,1 scenario has 0 wins,5 scenarios have 4 or 1 win ( n-1), then n or 5 times 1, 5*1=5And 10 scenarios for 2 or 3 wins .. absolute value of n-2... ..2*5=101+5+10+10+5+1=32Something like that

[Stocks]

Thanks Vato I was also watching this video http://www.khanacademy.org/math/trig...ations--part-2 and half way through I think he shows how to do it. He shows hitting 3 out of 5 and it was 5 factorial over 3 factorial and then he put a 2 in there not sure why but the answer was 10 different combinations. So I guess that should also apply to hitting 3 out of 5 teams in a parlay.

[Stocks]

So doing the math I got.

4 out of 5 has 5 combinations.

3 out of 5 has 10 combinations.

2 out of 5 has 10 combinations.

1 out of 5 has 5 combinations.

Not sure if that is right I would figure 2 our of 5 has more than 3 out of 5 but that's what it comes out to.

[cruzing vato]

I watched that video to. What was your question again? How many ways to hit 3 wins in 5 games? Yes, that answer is 10, as is 2 out of 5. Remember 2 and 3 are your median numbers (plural) in your set of total wins; 0,1,2,3,4, and 5. So it makes sense that they would have same number of possible appearances.

[cruzing vato]

N over k. N = 5. K= 3. Combination formula n!/(n-k)!k!. That is 5!/(5-3)!3!. Or 5*4*3*2*1/(2)3*2*1. Simplified 5*4/2 = 20/2. = 10 combinations. The original combination notation is (n above k). I can't write this on my device. Sorry.

[cruzing vato]

Was looking at your original question as a combination problem. It yielded 3 possible combinations of 2 wins. Not sure how to calculate the rest and if it would be the same answer. It seems like there is a 3/8 chance to hit 2 out of 3. But then do you mult. 3/8 x .55?

[SportMac]

Great answer!! cool calculations

[SportMac]

Do anyone have any basic calculations for basic Streak calculator. A logic and method behind it.!!