Football Spread Relationship to Total

[Bullajami]

One of the bowl games today is listed as a +2.5 spread and a O/U of 76.5.

It would seem to me that a game that is expected to have so much scoring is less likely to be within a field goal than a game where the expected total was 35. Is there some existing data and/or principles to support my hunch?

[Justin7]

You're correct. The lower the total (in NFL, NCAAF, NBA or NCAAB), the more likely the game is to land on the "3" when the spread is close to "3".

[Bullajami]

You have a video to explain this yet?

[Justin7]

You have a video to explain this yet?

No, but that's a good idea!

[hhsilver]

So, it seems if you like the dog, you should play ML and if you like the fav, you should play spread. UNLESS, the moneyline odds are adjusted because of the above.

say, if spread is 3 and total is 43 and money line is X for dog and in another game where spread is 3 and total is 73, would the moneyline for dog still be about X, or would it be significantly lower than X?