Eligible for Poisson?

[SparJMU]

I am handicapping a prop on Christian Ponder completions. The line is set at 20.5 while I am predicting 23.5. Using a poisson calculator, I determine that this bet is likely to go over 20.5 completions 72.5% of the time. This converts to odds of Ponder Over 20.5 Completions -263.

We could spend a lot of time debating how accurate my projection of 23.5 really is, but assuming 23.5 is the correct figure, is this Poisson calculation correct? I am struggling to understand the core requirements of whether or not a sample is eligible for a poisson calculation.

[JPMcGavin]

It's all pink in the middle bro.

[VLR100]

The Poisson distribution works best when the number of trials is very high and the probability of success is very low ( ideally < .05, however the probability can be higher if the number of trials is high). I wouldn't use the Poisson Distribution to price this prop.

[buby74]

Dont use poisson use a normal distribution or maybe binomial if you have an estimate of the number of pass attempts