Pags - what's your thoughts about Nebraska on the ML this week?
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Pags, I know you have a guy who knows the Maryland program pretty well. Any insight on the Thurs. night matchup with Va Tech? I'm probably going Hokies, but I'd like to hear what you think.Comment -
Louisville is a big time Jekell and Hyde team... LOVE the Oklahoma State pick, they lost by 4 on the road at Texas, I'm a firm beliver in the Cowboy ML in that one. Anybody who saw that Texas/Texas Tech game last week can not tell me either one of those teams looked top 5 material. Very sloppy play Texas just gave it to them. I can only what Tech will look like when they come out a week off that huge game... OSU knows exactly what to expect and will come out firing... One question Pags, why Cincy? Their run defense was torn up by UCOnn two weeks ago, who knows what White and Devine can do to them, especially now that they seem to be getting their feet underneath them.Comment -
clowncar,
always appreciate you checking in...thanks for your thoughts regarding the Nebraska game...you are always so much better than me figuring out hypothetical lines, part of what makes you a great capper...also excellent thoughts on the TCU vs. Utah game, I agree oddsmakers opened the line up shading the TCU side (I know you are a big believer in the team and have been all year)...BOL to you this week my friend...
trey,
I get asked questions like that quite frequently but I am playing them all for the same ammount...I've learned over the years that the pick you can sometimes feel most confident in doesn't come in and the pick you have the least confidence in comes in...GL this week...
masr,
good luck in tomorrow night's game...glad we will be together on a few this weekend...BOL to you as well...
tbond,
thank you very much...glad to hear you have enjoyed my write-ups but also glad that you do your own homework as well...GL this week...
dana,
now that Nebraska has crossed over as a favorite my recommendation to you is to just lay the points with them as I'm a firm believer the money line should only be used in betting on underdogs...
cougar bait,
I appreciate you recognizing that I follow Maryland pretty closely...I'm not feeling a play on them this week, especially with all of their injuries...that being said Va. Tech has some injuries of their own, but going against them at night, at home, on a weeknight ESPN game is not a smart move IMO...GL with what you decide...
korbs,
thanks for all of your thoughts...I can tell you do your homework...regarding your comment on Cincinnati's game a couple of week's ago...it was actually a close game through the first 50 minutes but turnovers by Cincinnati at the end made the final score appear to be a blowout...they are going to have their hands full trying to contain Noel Devine and Pat White, but I feel they are up to the challenge...GL this week...Comment -
cougar, i couldn't help but notice you and pags goign back and forth. if you take a look at Maryland's road games this year (L 14-24 @ Mid Ten State, L 0-31@ Virginia, W 20-17 @ Clemson) I think you will notice a bit of a trend. The ONLY reason the line is only Va Tech -3 is Vegas' attempt to get plays on Maryland because of the quarterback situation with the Hokies. Home field advantage on a Thursday night is worth 3 pts alone, especially at Va Tech. And if you have seen Sean Glennon play at all this year, any other option is a better option. Maryland will be lucky to put up 10 Thursday night, pending Va Tech turnovers. We're all aware of the Hokie special teams so we know that won't be a factor. Not to mention Va Tech seeing their window of opportunity with N. Carolina and Georgia Tech playing eachother atop the division this saturday. Pags, hope you can chime in on this one...
VA TECH -3!!!Comment -
How can you say Texas Tech or Texas did not look like top 5 material. Texas Techs "so-so" defense held the nations most efficient passer to no touchdowns in the first half. Then Texas makes a comeback in the second half after being down 22-6 (a good quality of a top 5 team). Then Graham Harrell calmly leads Texas Tech down the field to score with 1 second left against the number 1 team in the nation. I'm sorry, this was a great game and I could watch this shit over and over again and you will never convince me that these two teams did not look like top 5 material. Texas played arguably the hardest stretch of 4 games in the nation and still almost managed to pull this one out against one of the highest scoring teams in the nation. Maybe top 5 is Alabama beating Kentucky 17-14. Sorry, not trying to bust your balls but it makes me sick to my stomach to hear someone say that they did not look like top 5 teams, what more do you want? Maybe top 5 is watching USC roll over high school teams week after week??? I have no idea.....
Sorry to clutter pags, but had to get my word in lol. Good luck this week bro! Love Nebraska, Ok State, Florida St, and Louisville, but gonna have to go against you on the Iowa pick. Just think Joe Pa and the nittany lions may be a little pissed about getting jumped. But then again you are a way smarter man than I and I know you have great reasons to be on Iowa. Best of luck bro
"Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
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korbs,
I can't disagree with anything you've written...excellent analysis...
tobycsh,
not a problem, good thoughts...thanks very much...yeah, I'll explain more in my write-up tomorrow...BOL to you as well this week...Comment -
Pags, there has been a lot of talk on this forum about reverse line movement. I was wondering what your take on this is, and if you take it into consideration (i am not sure, but i think you don't considering you cap the games so early in the week). I followed your Florida St. play earlier this week since I too agreed that it seemed like the play. However, when I was looking at the numbers it seems that although Florida State is receiving roughly 75% of the action, the line has moved from -6.5 to -5.Comment -
deluxeliner,
thanks for your post...yes, I follow the line movements each week and use sportsinsights.com to follow reverse line movement...I think when studying this type of movement you have to also pay close attention to key numbers games may or may not cross through...
here's what bookmaker has for the Clemson vs. FSU game:
POINTSPREADS11/03 11:22AM: +5½ -110 / -5½ -11011/03 12:24PM: +6 -110 / -6 -11011/03 04:50PM: +6½ -110 / -6½ -11011/04 12:23PM: +6 -110 / -6 -11011/04 06:22PM: +5½ -110 / -5½ -110
with all due respect, I'm not sure this game falls into that category being that the current number for the game is at the same number that it opened at...funny that you mention this game because when discussing this game with my group of guys that I discuss games with on Sunday I told them I thought the line would fluctuate between 6.5 and 5.5 all week...funny that it has done so...
now when I see a game that opens +10, gets bet down to +7 by kickoff yet 80% of the bettors are on the favorite it definitely is something to pay attention too, but also doesn't guarantee one side will cover vs. the other...just my thoughts on things...Comment -
Pags, How much do you know about Cory Holt, the QB who is supposed to start for the Hokies tonight?Comment -
cougar bait,
I watched him play in the second half vs. FSU earlier this year...wasn't extremely impressed with him but he wasn't terrible either...he should be able to manage the game fairly well...Comment -
Pags,
Long time reader. 1st time poster. Really appreciate u sharing ur knowledge and hard work w/ everyone. Just wanted to get ur thoughts on Kansas/Nebraska now that it's a pick em.Comment -
Pags,
I've been following your threads all season and am really impressed with your insight. Wondering if you could check out my thread and let me know what you think of my plays this weekend.Comment -
Pag's Love the Iowa pick and I see it as a close game as well. As usual I haven't gone online yet so I will be getting much different lines. How do you feel about Cinci down to 6.5, nc state to 3.5, louisvillle at 6 and nebraska at -1.5? Thanks and great job last week.Comment -
Sir Pag,
- Love Neb, Cinci. I'll be on them both. Kansas is overrated. They can't win big game because their D is soft. They can't score against tough defense. Neb's D play tough at home. I think Neb will win outright. Cinci is a well balanced team on both side of the ball. They should be able to hold WV to a field goal.
- Iowa may come thru and cover. This line is set too low IMO. I will be rooting for Louisville. It would be sweet revenge, because they defeated my Notre Dame last weekend. I have no play on this game or others.
BOL Sir, your work is much appreciated.Comment -
GL pags! Your card looks poised for another big week
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deluxeliner,
you're welcome bud...keep learning as you go and I'm sure you will continue to get better...GL this week...
dangerousone,
thanks for your post...yes, I'd recommend Nebraska still at PK...I'll have my write-up late tonight for you to read and you can gather more info. from that...BOL to you this week...
soonergreg,
thank you very much for saying that...yes, I'll head over to your thread and check it out...GL this week...
blunt5619,
glad to hear you feel the same about the Iowa game...I'd prefer at least seven with Cincinnati but the other games look good at the current numbers...thanks very much...BOL to you as well...
rixsaw,
appreciate your thoughts on these games and glad we will be together on a couple...thank you...GL to you this week...
vegasdave,
thank you...BOL to you this week as well...Comment -
Love the Florida St game, got the line at -5.5 hopefully we both cash in.
They should be back on track this weekend vs a still struggling Clemson offense on the road.
Have you looked at the Bama line at all? Just wondering, seems like Alabama is on a mission and LSU is still struggling to find its rhythm on offense.Comment -
pags,
like the FSU, Ok St, NC St and the Iowa picks. FSU should be able to rebound after the tough loss last week against GTech. Clemson has a hard time moving the ball effectively and the way FSU stops the run, it's a matter of FSU maintaining drives to score, which I believe they can do. Ok St will bring it all to this game, this is their chance to jump up, and I believe Robinson, Bryant and Co. will have Tex Tech D confused with their powerful run attack only to set up Robinson to Bryant. NC St matches up well against Duke, who started out strong, but seems to be tiring of late, inexperience on the Duke team could attribute to this, seeing is that they still have to "learn" how to close out seasons. And Iowa, Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to play, and the crowd should be well into this game. Add that, Clarke got his bell rung last game, it'll be interesting to see how he rebounds in this game, if he can rebound after that concussion.
best of luck to you. and will be looking forward to the write-ups on the other games. Always interested in how you see the game compared to i.Comment -
I get asked questions like that quite frequently but I am playing them all for the same ammount...I've learned over the years that the pick you can sometimes feel most confident in doesn't come in and the pick you have the least confidence in comes in...GL this week
boy , was I glad to see you post this comment. I could not agree more.
Belated BRAVO on your good calls a week ago.
I see it is back to a dog slate (mostly) this week. Makes me happy. I especially like the OSU pick. I just hope my saying so doesn't jinx us.
GLComment -
...hahahahahaha...I agree as well. I was really hoping Glennon would play instead of Taylor. I'd rather have the veteran.Comment -
jbougs,
agree with your analysis on the Clemson vs. FSU game...no way in heck I'd take LSU in the other game although I'm not in a hurry to play Alabama because of the emotion surrounding the game...GL with what you decide...
manofmyth,
agree with most all of your thoughts here...good analysis...yes, I'll have my write-ups posted later tonight for you and others to view...thank you...BOL to you as well this week...
cougar bait,
no problem at all...GL...
taurus,
missed you last week in the thread, but glad to see you posting this week (maybe it was two weeks ago we missed out on a post from you, they are all blending together right now)...yeah, these are the games I'm feeling this week...glad you agree with me about how weird it is in terms of what games come in and what don't...thanks very much sir...GL with OSU and the rest of your card...
en11871,
not a big fan of Glennon but that's me...GL tonight...Comment -
You shoulda been on this with us Pags! Evans is gutting the Terp D and Glennon hasn't turned the ball over yet (although there is still a whole half yet to play!). Lane Stadium is taking over!
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Good luck pags this week. I know we are against on a couple but as a Husker fan I lost faith in them last week when they allowed Oklahoma to score 4 TD's in the first 5 minutes of the game. As far as Florida St. I think that Clemson has their number and they will keep the game close.Comment -
Pags, I hope you kick arse this week because I'm on 4 of those too (Ok State, FSU, Neb,and Iowa). I really like this weeks card. I've got 8 games going.Comment -
Pags im new to this site and it seem that you are the guy to come when your having a awful season like myself. I think this site is great and will be posting and asking for advice here own.. here are my play?
Utah +1.5 (last night)
NEV -1
FSU - 4
OHIO ST -12
GA -12
TROY -17.5
OKLA ST +3
TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK OR OTHER PLAYS YOU LIKE?Comment -
cougar bait,
congrats on cashing with Va. Tech...I have to go back and watch the tape but the few moments I saw tonight they looked good and Maryland didn't seem to be playing very well...
pavy,
thanks very much...it is unfortunate and although I respectfully disagree with your thoughts (as I'll explain in detail later on in my write-up) on both games I still wish you luck...
theseer,
thank you...glad to hear we will be on four games together...GL with the rest of your card...
biggame,
appears you already have one winner...here are my thoughts:
NEV -1 (pretty much a no play for me as I won't touch Fresno State but I don't see much value with Nevada)
FSU - 4 (on the play)
OHIO ST -12 (no opinion)
GA -12 (no opinion)
TROY -17.5 (no opinion)
OKLA ST +3 (on the play)
GL this week...Comment -
a little late starting my write-up, it should be up within a couple of hours...Comment -
Cincinnati +8
The Big East has been a bit of a wild ride so far this season and I expect that to continue this week. There’s no question that Morgantown is a difficult place to play for an opposing team and there’s also no doubt that this West Virginia team is an improved team since the beginning of the year. I have to admit that I thought after the first month of the season that Bill Stewart was a terrible hire. However, as I watch his press conferences each week I see that this guy is genuine and is an excellent motivator. That being said, I still like the coaching match-up in this game as I think Cincinnati Head Coach Brian Kelly is one of the better coaches in the country. I also like that Kelly and his staff had an extra two days to prepare for this game. Much has been made about Cincinnati QB Tony Pike’s non-throwing arm being in a cast, but if anyone watched last week’s game vs. South Florida you could see that Pike can still run the offense very efficiently. Although Pike (61.3% comp., 9 TD/ 3 INT) will use almost exclusively shotgun formations, I do think Cincinnati will have success running some draws and delays out of the spread formation. It’s important to note that West Virginia’s defensive leader Reed Williams is out for the season, and although it didn’t make as much of a difference against a struggling Auburn offense and against Connecticut who was using their third string running back, I think that William’s absence could play more of factor in this game. RB’s Jacob Ramsey (4.7 ypc.) and John Goebel (4.8 ypc., 5 TD) are both very capable ball carriers. The strength of the Cincinnati offense, though, is with their receiving corps. WR’s Marshawn Gilyard (43 rec., 7 TD), Dominick Goodman (48 rec., 5 TD) and Marcus Barnett (21 rec., 10.4 ypr.) all do a great job with their route running and have improved upon their pass catching skills. Defensively, Cincinnati will look to contain the explosive duo of QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine. Both of these players can break a big run at any time, so the Cincinnati defense will have to be focused on every snap. WR Jock Sanders and Dorrell Jalloh are also capable pass catchers. West Virginia is going to get their share of explosive plays, but if Cincinnati can buckle down inside the red zone and create some turnovers I like their chances to keep this game close deep into the fourth quarter. Cincinnati is a team built on speed, which is one of the main reasons I like them in this game, and they have excellent schemes on both sides of the ball. I’ll take Cincinnati and the points here.
Oklahoma St. +3.5
As I watched the respective press conferences of Mike Leach and Mike Gundy earlier this week it was very apparent to me that Texas Tech was still enjoying the glory of beating Texas last Saturday and that, in turn, Gundy was very focused on his next opponent. Texas Tech has spent all week getting the “atta boys” from everyone in the Lubbock community and they deserve it, beating Texas in such dramatic fashion was a terrific feat. QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree should be considered for the Heisman Trophy, no question. Their run defense is much improved and they are definitely a more confident team when playing at home. While I understand all of these points and see these two teams being very similar in a lot of areas, I just really like how this spot sets up for Oklahoma St. OSU has already played two tough road games at Missouri and at Texas earlier this year and has seemed to grow stronger each week. As I mentioned last week, having TE Brandon Pettigrew (21 rec., 11.2 ypr.) back fully healthy has taken their offense to another level. WR Dez Bryant (60 rec., 15 TD) might be the second best receiver in the country behind Crabtree and there’s no doubt Oklahoma State’s running game is one of the best in the country. Kendall Hunter (6.7 ypc., 11 TD) seems to have gotten stronger as the season has gone on and Keith Toston (7.4 ypc., 8 TD) adds a great deal of depth to the OSU running game. Then there’s the impressive play of QB Zac Robinson (69% comp., 20 TD/ 5 INT), who has continued to quietly fly under the national radar. I’m not sure that the Texas Tech defense has faced an offense this balanced so far this season and you also have to wonder what type of hangover the Red Raider defense may have from chasing around Colt McCoy and crew all last week. The Oklahoma State defense has grown stronger as the season has gone on. I have been especially impressed with their defensive line, which will need to play well to contain the Texas Tech running game. Texas Tech also has a couple of other talented receivers in Detron Lewis and Eric Morris, who will put some pressure on the Oklahoma State secondary. This game comes down to that I think Oklahoma State catches Texas Tech off an emotional win, they have a slight edge in coaching and they are getting over a field goal in a game that I think could come down to the last possession. I’ll take Oklahoma State and the points in this one.
Iowa +7
Maybe it’s just me but when I watch Penn State play lately I’m not seeing them play with the same explosiveness and cohesiveness that they were at the beginning of the year. This is natural for a lot of teams as the ebb and flow through the course of the season is something to be expected when you deal with 18 to 23 year old athletes. Joe Paterno has done a great job with his team so far through the season and has put them in a hunt for national title contention. The Penn State defense does a good job vs. the run and doesn’t seem to give up many big plays and as I’ve mentioned over the course of the year they have a variety of playmakers. I just don’t see as much difference between these two teams as a lot of people may, especially with the game being played in Iowa. Kinnock Stadium has been a tough place for most Big Ten teams to win over the years and the weather report is calling for rain, snow and cold temperatures. I feel this sets up for a classic Big Ten slugfest and Iowa is the type of team that relishes playing in this type of game. In all of Iowa’s games this year they have been competitive, losing their four games by a total of twelve points. Say what you want about Kirk Ferentz, but the guy puts his team in a position to win ball games in the fourth quarter and when you have a touchdown to work with in a game like this I think it’s worthy of consideration. Every week I watch Iowa QB Rick Stanzi (59.6% comp., 9 TD/ 6 INT) play I become more impressed. Sure, he’s got to work on his decision making in the red zone, but this kid is as tough of a QB as there is in the country. He also has excellent footwork which will be key in avoiding the Penn State pass rush this weekend, and it also helps that he can hand the ball off to one of the most talented running backs in the nation, in Shonn Greene (6.3 ypc., 11 TD). Iowa’s passing game comes primarily out of play action passes and rollouts, which fits Stanzi and their offensive line quite nicely. WR’s Andy Brodell (27 rec., 4 TD), Derrell Johnson-Kouilianos (26 rec., 1 TD) and Brandon Myers (22 rec., 3 TD) all help take the pressure off Greene and can make plays in the passing game. Iowa’s strength on defense is against the run, and I also feel they do a good job covering the tight end. They should be able to limit big runs from Penn State running back Evan Royster, but they will need to do a good job on limiting big plays from the receiving trio of Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood and Deon Butler. QB Daryll Clark has had a great year but is coming off a concussion he sustained two weeks ago vs. Ohio St. Look for Iowa to try and get some hits on him early in the game which could affect his decision making. It’s a game where you are going to have to hold on tight going against one of the best teams in the nation off a bye week, but I’m willing to take a chance with Iowa and the points here.
Florida St. -6
Clemson is definitely playing better football since the resignation of Tommy Bowden and there’s no question that this team has talent. As I mentioned earlier this year, they still have a lot of holes in their team that I feel FSU can exploit them this week. RB’s C.J. Spiller and James Davis are top notch running backs and WR Aaron Kelly is one of the top pro prospects in the country. The Clemson defense does have speed and does a pretty good job against the run. This week, though, they face their toughest road test to date in a game where their ex-coach’s father has a bit of a score to settle. You are kidding yourself if you think it’s not in the back of Bobby Bowden’s mind how his son was treated by the Clemson University administrators and atheltic department staff. You are also kidding yourself if you think Bowden hasn’t talked to Tommy about how to properly scheme a lot of his former players. I also feel Clemson’s suspect offensive line and shaky quarterback play will be exploited by a talented FSU defense. At the beginning of the year I really thought Bobby Bowden was making a mistake when he went with sophomore QB Christian Ponder (54.5% comp., 10 TD/ 7 INT) in place of senior Drew Weatherford. As the season has gone on, I’ve seen what Bowden probably saw in practice. Ponder is very athletic, quite mobile and his decision making has continued to improve. Ponder also has four very talented receivers to get the ball to in Greg Carr (24 rec., 2 TD), Taiwan Easterling (22 rec., 1 TD), Bert Reed (15 rec., 3 TD) and Preston Parker (18 rec., 1 TD). They aren’t the greatest group of possession receivers but any four of them can break a big play at anytime. There are no doubts that the strength of the FSU offense is with their running game. RB Antone Smith (4.9 ypc., 11 TD) is their top back, but Jermaine Thomas (8.4 ypc., 2 TD) and D’Vontrey Richardson (8.6 ypc., 3 TD) have emerged recently. All three backs will see carries in this game behind an improved FSU offensive line. I anticipate some misdirection runs and screen passes to slow down the Clemson pass rush, which ultimately could open up the big play down field. FSU’s strength on defense is with their run defense, which should match up well against the Clemson running game. Last week FSU had to defend the triple option, where as this week they face more of a traditional running attack. FSU should be able to put Clemson in some third and long situations and attempt to force Clemson QB Cullen Harper into some poor decisions. The FSU crowd should get stronger as the game goes on and with that being said I’ll lay the points with FSU here.
N.C. State +4.5
I’m sure most people took a look at this game and once they looked at N.C. State’s record they dismissed the game and moved onto another. I believe you have to dig a little deeper with this game and look at how competitive NCSU has been with QB Russell Wilson (57.3% comp., 8 TD/ 1 INT) at the helm. Most of you are aware how much emphasis I put into quarterback play and coaching and I think Wilson is one of the top young quarterbacks in the country and NCSU Head Coach Tom O’Brien is as solid as they come. O’Brien should have his team prepared very well heading into this game as they’ve had a week off to prepare. They also face a Duke squad who has been on the road the past two weeks and most recently lost an emotionally draining game to Wake Forest in overtime. Duke Head Coach David Cutcliff has done a great job rebuilding the Duke program and his defense has been playing pretty well so far this season. I’ve mentioned that I’m a fan of QB Thaddius Lewis and WR Eron Riley, who seems to have had his hand injury heal up which was causing him to drop some passes. RB Jay Hollingsworth has emerged as their go-to back. Duke is a team that has done a good job in the role of a dog, but this week they are now the favorite against an NCSU team that’s not listening to any of the critics and has been playing very competitive football. In addition to Wilson finally being healthy NCSU has also had some veteran playmakers who were hurt get back on the field. RB Andre Brown (4.2 ypc., 4 TD) is their workhorse back and RB Jamelle Eugene (4.8 ypc., 15 rec.) is the glue to their offense as NCSU looks to get him the ball in space and pick-up first downs. TE Anthony Hill (7 rec., 1 TD), once an All-ACC performer, is back to his original form and is putting pressure on opposing line backing units. Young WR’s Owen Spencer (20 rec., 2 TD), T.J. Graham (13 rec.) and Jarvis Williams (12 rec., 3 TD) are all tall and athletic and have started to develop as the season has gone on. As good as Duke’s defense has played, I expect them to be a step slow for the first half of this game. If NCSU can build momentum early in the game and pick up first downs they have a very good chance to win this game. I’ll take NCSU and the points in this game.
Louisville +6.5
As I mentioned earlier in this write-up the Big East has been a topsy-turvy conference so far this season. Despite these two teams’ positions in the conference standings, I’m not sure there is a whole lot of difference between the two and I like the situational spot for Louisville this week. Yes, Louisville is off an embarrassing loss to Syracuse last week, a game in which RB Curtis Brinkley showed why he is one of the most underrated RB’s in the country in what I feel was a sandwich spot for Louisville off an emotional win vs. USF. I’m also aware that Pitt is coming off a win vs. Notre Dame, but it was a win that took them four overtimes to accomplish and was a very emotionally draining game. As I’ve mentioned in earlier write-ups this season, Pitt Head Coach Dave Wandtstat and his team seems to struggle in the role as a home favorite. This week they face a Louisville team who is doing a much better job tackling than they did last year. Steve Kragthorpe, who I will admit isn’t my favorite coach in the world, is defensive minded coach who will center his offensive attack on the running game and play action passes. Anytime I can get a team getting a handful of points that has a chance to sustain drives, and one that plays good defense, I definitely like my chances in covering the game. Louisville QB Hunter Cantwell has a big frame and is accurate with the football. He struggles at times with getting the ball out on time, which is why Louisville focuses on the short passing game. Fortunately for him, Louisville does have a good offensive line which has opened up some holes for the Louisville running game. RB’s Victor Anderson (6.2 ypc., 7 TD) and Brock Bolen (4.2 ypc., 5 TD) are a terrific duo who should have success against the Pittsburgh defense this week. WR’s Doug Beaumont (37 rec.) and Josh Chichester (20 rec., 1 TD) help sustain drives and will look to do so on Saturday. Louisville will have to center its defensive game plan on trying to contain Pitt running back LeSean McCoy, who is one of the more talented running backs in the country. It appears that starting QB Bill Stull will start this game, but he is coming of a concussion he sustained in the second half of the game vs. Rutgers two weeks ago. WR Derek Kinder and Oderick Turner are talented receivers who Louisville will have to watch. I just see this game setting up nicely for Louisville and think that they have the athletes on defense and tackling ability to slow this game down. I’ll take Louisville and the points in this one.
Nebraska +1.5
Nebraska’s game last week was over before it started, but I watched the entire game and have watched this team a lot so far this season and I like that they are fighting and continuing to get better. Nebraska has played a pretty tough schedule so far this season and is coming off a stretch where they’ve played three of their last four games on the road. I think they have a chance this week to expose a Kansas team who has really struggled so far on the road, especially on defense. Kansas QB Todd Reising is a talented player, but he seems to be forcing more throws this year. Possibly this is because Kansas is having to play from behind in a lot of their games and he is trying to keep up scoring with their opposition. It’s of concern to me that Kansas RB Jake Sharp is continuing to run the ball well and Mark Mangino should have his team ready to play. I’m just not sure they are talented enough to handle an equally talented Nebraska team, who possesses one of the best home fields in not only the Big 12 Conference, but also the entire country. Nebraska QB Joe Ganz (68.6% comp., 16 TD/ 8 INT) is attracting the attention of some professional scouts with his play this year, and being the son of a coach he has a good understanding of how to run the Nebraska offense. I’ve been most impressed with the burst of running back Roy Helu (6.8 ypc., 3 TD) and Marlon Lucky (4.3 ypc., 7 TD) is getting healthier every week, looking more and more like his former self. Nebraska WR’s Nate Swift (47 rec., 7 TD) and Todd Peterson (45 rec., 2 TD) quietly do their job each week and have a knack of making big catches to sustain drives. Nebraska’s balance on offense should create some problems against Kansas’s defense, who’s giving up an average of over 38 points per game on the road. Defensively, Nebraska will have to put pressure on Reising and try and force some turnovers. Kansas will score their fair share of points in this game, but I believe that Nebraska can simply outscore them. Bo Pelini’s looking for a signature home win this season, and I believe he has a good chance of getting it on Saturday. I’ll take Nebraska and the points here.Comment -
pefect timing again this week... just checked for your write ups and they just got posted... last week I asked and by the time the page refreshed they were up
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great job as usual pags
a lot of sharp guys are on that nebraska game and I haven't seen Nebraska much this season
GOOD LUCK PAGS
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saddestbison,
glad you enjoyed the write-ups...thank you...GL to you as well...Comment -
Great write-ups this week...no surprise...still can't bring myself to play the last 2, but I see your reasoning behind the plays. Considering Cincinnati but will probably lay off that one too. Glad we agree on a bunch though and am looking at a great week. Best of luck!
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