I've won a ton of money this year betting on Iowa. The only thing that worries me about this game is whether the players feel jilted about the #3 ranking the BCS gave them.
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Lookin good so far Pags. Well Done last week
I'm surprised you didn't jump all over Kansas -2.5 vs. Nebraska. Is there something to that game that should worry me? It looks pretty straight forwardComment -
PLAY NUMBER SEVEN:
Nebraska +1.5 (+101) for 2 unitsComment -
That "clunk" you heard was about a half dozen folks' chins hitting their keyboards...Comment -
Pags-I've read where you talk about setting your own lines and then creating leans and then plays. Can you go into a little detail on how you set your lines?
ThanksComment -
KU may have a little something to play for, but with Texas and MU up after this, it aint looking good for them.Comment -
Pags,
I have alot of respect for you as a handicapper, I rarely comment though in your threads.
Was wondering about you Iowa Play though....even without the motivation of being "shafted" by the pollsters, this PSU team does everything better Iowa. This is a team who just got finished handing Beanie Wells his worst day as a college back in Columbus. Instead of this being a possible let down game, the by week and subsequent snub by the voters has dashed any doubts in my mind as to which team shows up....combine that with this game not being a night game at Iowa, I just think there is no reason to think PSU scores less than 35 Points in this game. Iowa has turned in some nice performances on the road against some decent backs but they have not faced any offense like PSU's. I think PSU keys in on the Run and attacks the Iowa secondary to set up some big plays from Royster.
Not trying to be disrespectful just offering commentary and I am extremely curious as to your reasoning for Iowa.
Just my opinion, but I think PSU wins this one big, 41-20Comment -
dana,
thanks for posting...I appreciate your well wishes...GL this week...
cougar bait,
of course I remember you bro...thanks very much...glad that we will be on some games together this week and glad you are having a good year...and thanks for responding to that post with some good advice...
UndisputedGblr,
thank you very much...my honest advice is not to play any money line parlays or teasers...stick with straight plays and money management over the course of time and you will be better off...hope you don't mind my honesty...
soonerbs,
as quality of a handicapper as you are I'm sure you will find some plays...I'm sure we both agree at this time of the year though less plays become attractive...we really have to be selective...thank you very much my friend and BOL to you this week as well...
Always Somethin',
actually no this week, thanks regarding my favorite plays...when I do play a favorite I really have to like it...yeah Penn. St. definitely has a lot to play for but I'll take my chances with Iowa this week...
Trey333,
appreciate it...actually on the other side of Kansas this week...will elaborate further in my write-up on Thursday...GL this week...Comment -
gopherbroke,
haven't seen you in the thread the last couple of weeks...always a pleasure to have you around...figured you'd be questioning my favorite plays the last couple of weeks but glad to see you didn't...not sure what you meant about people's jaws hitting the floor...not sure maybe you like the Kansas side or something...at any rate, GL to you this week...
merkyone,
yeah, ol' gopherbroke is a pretty funny guy...
tweets and always somethin',
something like that regarding the Kansas vs. Nebraska game although I do think Kansas will be motivated for the game...I do think Kansas has issues on defense, and also think Nebraska at home is pretty tough...will explain more on Thursday in my write-up...
Jcoz,
I appreciate very much your delivery in questioning my Iowa play, it's not always the case with posters that come into my thread...unfortunately, we have a very different view of what will happen in the game Saturday between PSU vs. Iowa...if you wouldn't mind waiting until Thursday evening to read my write-up on the game I'd greatly appreciate it, as I have a lot of tape and further research to do...BOL to you this week...Comment -
well this is nothing new i like WVU -8 vs cinci and i like penn st -7 at Iowa. WVU is amazing at home and as long as pat white is good to go they should roll because cinci is not a good road team at all. I also like Penn St, they are great against the run and coming off a bye week they should be pumped up to play. Just my takes and ive been sucking lately and youve been on fire so looks like a possible losing weekend for meComment -
Far be it from me to question your plays, pal. You're solid...Understand, when I do chime in, it's not criticism to you, pags. I'm just writing what my eyes tell me when I'm watching the game (i.e., Duke 1H vs Virginia and TCU shitting themselves at CSU).
The jaw reference was due to a couple of earlier posts wondering if you were possibly playing Kansas at the "short" number. It seems to be a popular play this week by the masses. That's all.
BOL and thanks for posting...Comment -
james,
I think we both know that anything can happen but I am sorry to hear we will be against eachother in a couple of games this week...
gopherbroke,
I understand...thank you...BOL to you as well...Comment -
james,
no real opinion on those two games bud...my best advice when you aren't going as well is to limit the ammount of games you are playing and limit your unit size...try to stay away from teasers and parlays and be very careful in betting road favorites...hope this helps...Comment -
Pags, do you make Q or H bets? I've found some pretty good lines this year on them....having never really considered them previously. So far I've cherry picked 5-0, though it is far too small of a sample size to say anything other than I found 5 games that worked.Comment -
i myself love the Nebraska play Pags, I was leaning that way but probably would not have had the balls to play it....but I will now that you like it as well haha. Aside from a disatrous first 7 minutes or so in the Okalhoma game, they played right with them the rest of the way, on the road.Comment -
Pags - there has been some movements on the points since you posted your picks. OK State is now only getting 3, Iowa has increased to getting 7.5 and FSU is now giving 6.5. What's your take here?Comment -
dbldown,
I respect your opinion as I have read many of your post but I have to disagree with your assessment of Neb. hanging with the Sooners. When you go up 28-0 in the first 5 min of Q1, the play calling gets much more conservative. Neb. was completely outclassed by OU.
With that said I'll be on Neb. this week too. Kansas is a garbage road team. In their only three road games this year....1) Loss at South Florida, 2) Win 35-33 at Iowa St (worst team in Big XII), 3) Blown out at Oklahoma. Neb does have four losses as well but look at who they lost to. Virginia Tech, #14 Missouri, #2 Texas Tech (in OT), #6 Oklahoma, all solid teams. Neb. seems to be the logical choice here. GL this week.Comment -
Yeah you are right about that SoonerGreg, such a huge lead so early deffinately changes the scope of things.....Like yourself I am still on Nebraska howeverComment -
laxdjock,
no I don't make any first half, halftime or quarter plays...congrats on your success so far this year with them...
Dbldown11,
glad that we will be on some of these plays together...agree with your analysis...GL this week...
Dana4U,
I'd prefer +3.5 or more with Oklahoma St....still think FSU -6.5 is a good play, don't like it as much at 7...obviously Iowa +7.5 is a better number than I posted so I feel it's a good play...
SoonerGreg,
thanks for your thoughts on Kansas vs. Nebraska game...Comment -
Pags, did you look at Illinois at all this week?
I like the Iowa play, not a great week for the Big 10 so that means I'm on a lot of your plays.......GluckComment -
msuspartans,
yeah, looked into the game a little...can't find any reason to play Illinois right now with all of the off the field issues they are having, especially since they are laying over a TD at a neutral site to a veteran MAC squad...glad to hear we will be on the Iowa game together...thanks...GL to you as well...Comment -
I'm curious to hear your take on TCU. I've been a big TCU backer this year, and I'm really surprised they aren't closer to a TD favorite (in Utah). Utah's game last week against New Mexico was sub-par. NM is *not* a good team, and they struggled to beat them and gave up almost 300 yds. The 2 TOs kept it close, but considering TCU average 35+ pts a game and can move the ball at will.....how is this not TCU by 7-10+?Comment -
laxdjock,
while I admit Utah isn't playing like they were at the beginning of the year and TCU is definitely rolling I really think the line when it came out at PK was about right...I can't advocate a play in this game because I can make cases for both sides...I don't blame you if you do play TCU but it could end up being a pretty close game...GL with what you decide...Comment -
Im leaning towards Utah here...
This game is for Mtn West Supremacy, TCU QB Dalton threw 4 int in 27-20 loss LY in Ft Worth.
TCU has lost 4 out of the last 5 games against UTAH.
Game will be close, Likin UTAH + ptsComment -
Hope you have another good week pags. I'm on FSU, Nebraska, NC State, L'Ville... Wanted 4 with OSU but still might play it and might ride with you on Iowa and Cincy. I also like UCLA(gulp)and USC. Carroll is pissed about the BCS situation, so think they're gonna continue to trounce people to prove a point. Wish I grabbed the 17... Also, I don't play many totals but seems like 50pts is a lot in the LSU/Bama game... I know LSU has been giving up quite a few lately but I feel this is an overreaction. Any thoughts on UCLA USC or that total?Comment -
hey anybody like ball state tonight i see a bs38 nil 17Comment -
masr,
I can understand your reasons for liking Utah here...I will personally be sitting this one out and enjoying the game...I'd wait to see if you can get +3 if you are going to play them...GL in that one...
drluck,
thank you sir...glad to hear we will be on those games together...I don't disagree with either the USC or UCLA sides although I won't be playing them...not much of a totals player so I can't really give you much insight on those three games...GL with what you decide...
irishdude,
not much of a MAC player but I know NIU has enough strength on defense to stay in that game for three quarters...obviously, though, Ball St. has been good this year against the spread and are a great team...GL tonight...Comment -
Love your card this week pags as Nebraska is my favorite play of the week. Would be curious to hear what line those who feel the kansas line opened short think it should be. And what they would then make the line if the game were played at kansas.
Also, something to note in regards to the TCU line that people have mentioned. The line opened shorter than most expected at PICK , which indicates the books wanted Utah money and still the early money came in on TCU. I think most knowledgeable sports bettors know the difference between early money and late money. Does not mean that TCU will cover but it does indicate where the "sharps" are putting their cash.
Best of luck , as always , pagsComment -
Pags,
Which 3 of those do you have the most confidence in?Comment -
pags, I just signed up here and I've been reading your threads and writeups. I will be tailing you on a number of those games after doing my due diligence as well and wish you the best of luck! Thanks for the insight you provide.
CheersComment
now that was funny.
