Pags' Plays 11/8

[pags11]

plays will be posted shortly...

[Dbldown11]

Pags, I know this thread is for next Saturday and I'm not sure how much you play weekday games.....But look at the NIU Ball St Wed. night game. Ball St is currently favored by 9.5. I think anyone that likes money needs to look at both these team carefully (not just records or rankings) and anyone will see that 9.5 points is a gift for NIU, and makes that a VERY easy play

[tobycsh39]

bad ass week last week man bro, congrats! Anyways best of luck this week and I'm sure Ill be tailing you on most of your plays!

[tobycsh39]

Also, think OU covers that spread against ATM, definitely am gonna hit the over up lol. Anyways....

[pags11]

dbldown,

thanks for your analysis on the NIU vs. Ball St. game...I can understand your reasonings for playing NIU here...they are a good defensive team and should be motivated for the game...I have a tough time fading Ball St. at this point and since I usually struggle with weeknight game I'll be sitting this one out...BOL to you though...

toby,

thank you bud...sound good...not sure on the OU vs. Texas A&M game, but you are probably right that there will be a lot of points scored...GL this week...

[laxdjock]

Interesting write up.

[pags11]

laxdjock,

yes, I agree...dbldown seems to have a good handle on the MAC...

[Dbldown11]

thanks pags, and I understand why ur not gonna touch it. Good luck to you with whatever games you play. I'm just hoping that I'm not looking at the NIU game with blinders since I am an NIU fan. I honestly dont feel like I am, and I've looked at both teams closely, but I guess even if I was I'd say the same thing haha. good luck to ya this week.

[shrax4]

Well done last week pags. You nailed em.

[Jbougs]

Another good week, any interest on the Kansas -1.5 line at Nebraska?

Nebraska got canned this week against a high powered passing offense in Oklahoma, no reason Kansas can't do the same.

[cashflow50]

pags good week as usual. I hope one of your plays will be Okie state. bol this week bud.

[pags11]

PLAY NUMBER ONE:

Cincinnati +8 (+100) for 2 units

[pags11]

PLAY NUMBER TWO:

Oklahoma St. +3.5 (+100) for 2 units

[pags11]

PLAY NUMBER THREE:

Iowa +7 (+101) for 2 units

[pags11]

dbldown,

I feel you are looking at it fairly objectively, I say that because some guys I know who I respect have a lean to NIU...thanks...BOL to you as well this week...

shrax,

thanks very much sir...GL to you this week...

jbougs,

I'll get back to you with my thoughts on that game within a day or two...

cashflow,

thanks very much...yep, OSU will be one of my plays...BOL to you as well...

[I.R.B]

Oklahoma St will be a big play for me this week pags. Good to know you're on them also.

[bailey]

Pags,Think we can can better lines on Ok St and Iowa by waiting.Penn St and Texas Tech should be big public favorites this week.

[ferrari355spider]

Hey Pags,

Where do you get these juices? (just curious)

T

[inuk0923]

Question for Pags

Pags, My name is Nick and I am a college student (21 years of age.)

I had a few questions if you do not mind answering them that would be awesome.

First things first, I admire your skills and talent in picking consistent winners, I have never witnessed a handicapper as good as you and truly am impressed with the remarkable talent that you have and the love for the game that you possess.

With that said, being a stupid college student (grades don't reflect it I have a 3.2 GPA), with MONEY, I found myself in heavy credit card debt this season that I am looking to pay off before gambling any of my money, so this season I am sitting out.

I was wondering if as of now you think you will probably be here next season posting your plays on the forums so I can follow along and make some good money with you guys.

Second off, I was wondering how much of a bankroll should account for 1 unit size. This way I know what my piggy bank should be at the start of next season. For example if I have $1,000 is 1 unit like $100? or less or more, How much should I start with to have 1 unit=$100.00


Also, does your unit dollar amount fluctuate through the season or no? By this I mean say you start off with a unit size of $100.00 You make picks and after week 6 or 7 you have $1,000 or $2,000 extra dollars than what you started with by picking good winners, Does a size fo ONE unit then change to a higher amount or do you keep 1 unit the same size all season?


Thank you and If you can't answer me because my question is too long or something than I understand, your a busy man.

Thanks
Nick

[strictlywinners]

I don't know it yet cause my numbers aren't in but I have a feeling that Okie State will be my biggest play of the year.

[laxdjock]

I'm not Pags, but I figured I'd take a stab at some of this....

...I found myself in heavy credit card debt this season that I am looking to pay off before gambling any of my money, so this season I am sitting out.

In general, money management is where most bettors screw themselves. Bets, bankroll, and decisions need to be made as objectively as possible, so don't go into this with money you need elsewhere, or you'll start chasing things, making poor decisions, and crapping out.

I've been doing this for 7-8 years (so I have relative experience, but not at the level of many others here), and it took me awhile to learn money management....and I *still* do stupid things from time to time (last week I threw down a 2nd half bet to try and recoup a bad first bet, instead of accepting the loss and moving onto the next game). Money management is the hardest part of gambling.

Second off, I was wondering how much of a bankroll should account for 1 unit size.

There are different rules of thumb for this, though you should really only bet a small % of your total because you don't want your bets to be influenced by "needing" to hit something, etc. Everything is scalable, and it depends on what kind of exposure you want....I started with a bankroll 1/10th of what I use to use, so I adjusted everything to fit my bankroll.

Also, does your unit dollar amount fluctuate through the season or no?

I keep my units the same through the season, and I tend to cap my units for any one type of bet and/or game to limit my exposure. I also try and bet a certain # of games, so I don't throw good money on bad games. I stick with certain teams/conferences that I know better, and pass on the rest.

[pags11]

PLAY NUMBER FOUR:

Florida St. -6 (-101) for 2 units

[pags11]

IRB,

thank you...glad we are on that game together...GL this week...

bailey,

my personal philosophy is to play games earlier because I feel most people that move the line aren't the public players...I did grab better numbers with both the OSU and Iowa games at bookmaker yesterday but have been posting my matchbook numbers here...GL with what you decide on those two games...

ferrari,

matchbook...if you have access to pinnacle I highly recommend them...also fivedimes and betjamaica have reduced juice later in the week...GL...

inuk,

thanks for your message...I appreciate you recognizing my work and thank you for the kind words...I don't mind answering these questions at all...first off, I think it is smart for you to pay off your credit card debt before you start gambling...I'm a firm believer in the saying "scared money never wins"...gambling is something that should be a recreational activity and I've seen many people ruin their lives by getting consumed and playing over their heads...that being said, yes it is my intent to post my plays here at SBR again next year...I have received great support from Bill Dozier and moderator crazyl in regards to monitoring my thread and feel that they have given me what I've asked for...in turn, I post my plays and write-ups exclusively at SBR...regarding your bankroll, I don't recommend making any play during the year that exceeds 2.5% of your bankroll...my personal money management system calls for light plays to start the year (1/2 unit on 7 games) and then I increase the size of the units I play each week a half unit per week until I reach 3 units per game (still playing 7 games per week)...I play 3 units per week for a while and then in week 10 I go back down a half unit per game...starting week 12 I play only five games, the same with week 13 and then play 3 games in week 14...I do this because at the beginning of the year I am starting to get a feel for teams...no matter how many preseason magazines you read you just never know how teams will be...I start to lower my units at the end of the season because the lines start to get tighter...this is what I have developed over the last 24 years of doing this...hope this helps...GL bud...

strictlywinners,

it should be a good game and I can understand you liking the play...try not to put too much on it is my advice but GL with what you decide...

laxdjock,

thanks for your help...great responses to inuk's questions...

[pags11]

PLAY NUMBER FIVE:

N.C. State +4.5 (-101) for 2 units

[regularguy]

Keep rolling pags!

The first four picks look great (I haven't looked into the NC State game). I especially love the Iowa pick. Iowa is better than their record shows. Four losses by a total of 12 points. I think they are going to take out some frustration on Penn State on Saturday, and maybe even get their win of the season.

Thanks for all your hard work, and, mostly, for such well-reasoned writeups. Just awesome. And much appreciated.

[pags11]

regularguy,

thank you very much sir...glad you don't disagree with any of the first four...I do think we will see a terrific effort from Iowa on Saturday as well...BOL to you this week...

[upwardspiral]

pags - thanks for posting your picks every week, they have been fun to follow over the year.

question on play #4, FSU -6.0. could you elaborate a little on this? i am a clemson fan and follow the acc closely. i have done well going against clemson most of the year, however this game was the first i was confident taking clemson +6.0. i was about to load up on it knowing the line will probably go to 4.5 or 5.0 by gametime, but your pick is making me second guess. any quick points to share?

thanks

[pags11]

upwardspiral,

I'll have much more for you Thu. in my write-up, but look closer last week at the Clemson box score, especially with their QB play...FSU should shake off last week's defensive performance and get back to their usual stout run defense...will have one more angle for you on Thu. you might find interesting...GL this week...

[Dana4U]

Pags -

I really look forward to your weekly selections and the analysis during the week. I only recently signed up for an account on SBR, but have been reading your analysis since the beginning of the season.

[Cougar Bait]

Pags, this is Bet The House from last year. Not sure if you'll remember me, but I had to sign up under a different name in order to comment. I finally signed in on a different computer and it worked out on my home PC. I've been tailing you on a lot of plays this year and mixing them with mine and have had a great year and I want to say thanks for all the insight. I actually prefer the new method of posting. It really helps me make my own mind up on my plays without just looking at yours like in years past. My number one play this week was NC State so I am thrilled to see that you are on it. Also like the Iowa and Oklahome St. plays. Look forward to the write-ups as always and I will be postying mine as the week goes on. GL this week as always!

[UndisputedGblr]

Hey Pags,

First off I tailed your plays last week and thanks to you I payed off my **** . So I appreciate you helping out the entire board posting your plays and answering all the questions we post.

I just had two questions. I was thinking about placing a fairly large money line parlay (around $500) and I was wondering if you could maybe tell me some plays which you would recommend. Also, I wanted to play a 10 point teaser as well this weekend and would appreciate any insight on plays you would make for the teaser.

Sorry, I know you put in a lot of time with the forum but I'd greatly appreciate your help.

Have a great week.

[Cougar Bait]

I've never seen Pags play ML or teasers but my advice would be to continue with what works. His money management system is the way to go. There's a reason people salivate over his picks. Because they consistently win. He's not gonna go 7-0 every week. No one does, no matter what they claim. But, in the end, if you want to win smart, you'll listen to him.

[pags11]

PLAY NUMBER SIX:

Louisville +6.5 (-103) for 2 units

[SoonerBS]

I'm having trouble finding more than one play this week and you have already found 6!!

Good luck this week, Pags, hit 'em hard!!

[Always Somethin']

Pags any big chalk plays for this weekend? You've been money so far on them. Love the picks so far, I know Iowa has been the trendy pick so far I just can see Penn St. putting up a lot on them.