Pags' Plays 9/6

pags11 · 08-31-08, 05:10 PM

my bad...moving this to the college football forum...

ZBOIZ · 08-31-08, 05:11 PM

Wow Miami Fl Is +23!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

pags11 · 08-31-08, 05:14 PM

Pags' Plays 9/6

double post...

MartinBlank · 08-31-08, 05:24 PM

Pags, I know we fought over the June Jones issue...but I sure do love your GT pick.

Absolutely love that game.

Miami's line is so crazy I feel like a dog staring at an open gate..."Do I try it?"....I love the 23, but I am just too uneasy about it.

Best of luck.

AdamL2424 · 08-31-08, 05:29 PM

Hey Pags thanks for the hard work on the First week pics.... Thats gotta be some even harder work doing it the first week. I ended up 3-4 week 1. I was on the Idaho and Cal pick with you. Thanks again for all the hard work man good luck week 2!!!! Show me the money

pags11 · 08-31-08, 05:54 PM

zboiz,

yep...line settled around 21 for now...

martinblank,

it's apparent that you have college football knowledge and you are always welcome in my threads...glad to hear you like the Georgia Tech play too...I can understand your reservations about the Miami FL play as well...

adam,

thanks bud...thanks also for understanding that it's a marathon, not a sprint...I usually use the first couple of weeks to get a feel for all of the teams...GL bud...

ZBOIZ · 08-31-08, 05:55 PM

Miami Fl, is a gift!!!! This game will be close! Can I say Field goal?

Aces · 08-31-08, 05:56 PM

Good luck Pags I hope you got some of the Bama money line with me. I'm trying the Col St Money line tonight just for shits and grins.

pags11 · 08-31-08, 06:08 PM

zboiz,

Florida is still a very strong team, but I do feel that the line presents some value...

aces,

yeah, Bama looked great...congrats...GL with your play tonight...

ZBOIZ · 08-31-08, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Aces

Good luck Pags I hope you got some of the Bama money line with me. I'm trying the Col St Money line tonight just for shits and grins.

Colorado State is the play bud

rossta4i · 08-31-08, 10:05 PM

pags GL this weekend. I can't wait for your write ups. thanks for the hard work pags.

tobycsh39 · 08-31-08, 10:12 PM

Pags,

I am new to this board as well but followed a few of your picks in week 1. I know it is a lot of hard work to give those detailed write ups every week. I look forward to betting with you all year. Do you recommend any other sites or cappers other than yourself so I can get all the knowledge and more lol. Anyways just wanted to say hey and thank you for your hard, unpaid efforts. Lets kill the books this year.

PS
By the way, what do you think about Texas -24.5 against UTEP. UTEP got beat by Buffalo 42 to 17 and Texas put a beat down on Florida Atlantic. It seems like that line against UTEP is way to low, I was expecting 34 plus. Anyways what do you think about it.

WIRE · 08-31-08, 10:36 PM

Hey Pags, I Am New To Your Thread Also,. Thanks For Week One....alabama Pick Did Me Right.....i Looked Into The Illinois Game And Got A Little Nervous, So I Bet The Over....big Success. I Was Wondering If You Were Ever Into The Over/under Bets , Or Do You Stay Away From Them Like The Teases

WIRE · 08-31-08, 10:41 PM

Pags, Sorry To Bother You Again....but If You Are Not Into The Nfl....do You Know Of A Capper That Is On The Sbr Forum....thanks

pags11 · 09-01-08, 05:05 AM

ross,

thanks for stopping by and thanks also for the kind words...

toby,

there are many great cappers across the net...here at SBR, we have several good ones...ltprofits, soonerbs, jimmydafreak, rjt are some that come to mind...keep working and learning...I don't have any opinion on those two games...sorry I couldn't help you more...

wire,

I don't play any parlays, teasers or totals...I don't handicap any other sport besides college football...I've dabbled in other sports throughout the years having some winning and some losing years, but college football is by far my best sport and I have made a profit each season for the past 24 years...I try to stick to what I know...thanks man...

Richkas · 09-01-08, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by pags11

All plays for 1.5 units...

Temple +7
Miami FL +23
Penn St. -13
ECU +10
Georgia Tech +7.5
Stanford +14.5

will be adding one more play

GL with your plays pags. I will post my seven plays a little later in the week so I can get your opinion on them.

hawk 5 · 09-01-08, 08:50 AM

You've got to be happy getting Penn St at -13, Pags. I took it at -15. Can't see this game being very competitive.

Richkas · 09-01-08, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by hawk 5

You've got to be happy getting Penn St at -13, Pags. I took it at -15. Can't see this game being very competitive.

Richkas · 09-01-08, 09:28 AM

Nice lines pags. I'm taking these lines came from a local?

hawk 5 · 09-01-08, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by Richkas

Nice lines pags. I'm taking these lines came from a local?

I only meant he got a good opening line, nothing more. Looks like I'm going to have to more more careful in the future.

SoonerBS · 09-01-08, 09:35 AM

Pags, I like East Carolina and Penn State. I think West Virginia is going to hurt this season without Slaton and their defense. We get a decent home doggy here playing an overhyped team in my opinion.

Penn State looked impressive this last week even if it was against lowly Coastal Carolina. I feel like we are getting a great home line against an Oregon State team that lacks a consistent defense and has to travel all the way to Happy Valley for the first time.

I disagree with you on the Miami play though. I think we will see a similar incident to the Miami/Oklahoma game of last season here. Florida should be a little more refined this week and I think they lay a whipping on an ACC team that is still a year or two away from being decent.

Good luck this week, Pags!

LT Profits · 09-01-08, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by Richkas

Nice lines pags. I'm taking these lines came from a local?

Opening lines at Bookmaker/CRIS

CBBPhenom · 09-01-08, 09:54 AM

Love your Penn State and Temple plays as I am from PA. Good Luck this week!

Richkas · 09-01-08, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Opening lines at Bookmaker/CRIS

Damn pags is fast. They had Miami Fla at +23 a whole 2 minutes

08/31 6:03pm FLA XX MIAMI XX FLA-23 FLA+23
08/31 6:05pm FLA XX MIAMI XX FLA-21.5 FLA+21.5
08/31 6:08pm FLA XX MIAMI XX FLA-21 FLA+21
08/31 6:15pm FLA XX MIAMI XX FLA-20.5 FLA+20.5
08/31 6:25pm FLA XX MIAMI XX FLA-21 FLA+21
08/31 7:26pm FLA XX MIAMI XX FLA-20.5 FLA+20.5
08/31 7:38pm FLA XX MIAMI XX FLA-21 FLA+21
09/01 10:26am FLA XX MIAMI XX FLA-21.5 FLA+21.5

Helmut · 09-01-08, 10:22 AM

Pags,

I think you should wait 30 minutes or so after the lines come out before posting your plays. I don't doubt that you were able to get these numbers, however the lines are very volatile when first coming out. It's going to rub some players the wrong way when the see most of the games 2-3 pts in your favor.

Richkas · 09-01-08, 10:27 AM

He was fast also on pennState. It was only up 4 minutes.

08/31 6:01pm PENNST XX OREGST XX PENNST-13 PENNST+13
08/31 6:05pm PENNST XX OREGST XX PENNST-13.5 PENNST+13.5
08/31 6:07pm PENNST XX OREGST XX PENNST-14.5 PENNST+14.5
08/31 6:39pm PENNST XX OREGST XX PENNST-15 PENNST+15
09/01 1:30am PENNST XX OREGST XX PENNST-15.5 PENNST+15.5

Richkas · 09-01-08, 10:30 AM

ECU +10 has to be a local. Here is Cris line

Date Time Fav Dog Fav Dog Over Under Fav Dog Fav Dog
08/31 6:01pm ECAR XX WVA XX WVA-8 WVA+8
08/31 6:05pm ECAR XX WVA XX WVA-9 WVA+9
08/31 6:08pm ECAR XX WVA XX WVA-9 WVA+9
08/31 9:41pm ECAR XX WVA XX WVA-8.5 WVA+8.5
09/01 1:13am ECAR XX WVA XX WVA-9 WVA+9

Richkas · 09-01-08, 10:37 AM

Stanford was +14.5 for a whole 7 minutes. Pags you are quick. It must be hard looking at all the lines of all the games and then betting the ones that are off all within 5 minutes. Pretty impressive.

Money Line Spread Total 1st Half 2nd Half
Date Time Fav Dog Fav Dog Over Under Fav Dog Fav Dog
08/31 6:02pm ASU XX STAN XX ASU-14.5 ASU+14.5
08/31 6:09pm ASU XX STAN XX ASU-13.5 ASU+13.5
08/31 6:25pm ASU XX STAN XX ASU-14 ASU+14
08/31 6:31pm ASU XX STAN XX ASU-14.5 ASU+14.5
08/31 8:21pm ASU XX STAN XX ASU-14 ASU+14

ChiGuy23 · 09-01-08, 12:09 PM

Pags, keep pundin the dogs, huh? Last week seems like a lot of favorites hit. Any thoughts on that? Not knockin picks at all, just curious as to why you think so many dogs failed last week.

PerfecTrader · 09-01-08, 01:24 PM

I have never broken down someones post before but I'm sorry I just could not help it here

Originally posted by Helmut

Pags,

I think you should wait 30 minutes or so after the lines come out before posting your plays.

You must have been high on something here. How bout Pags, I think you should do whatever the fvck you want and those of us with any intelligence whatsoever, will continue to appreciate it

Originally posted by Helmut

Pags,

I don't doubt that you were able to get these numbers, however the lines are very volatile when first coming out.

Rocket science here. Lines are volatile when they first come out? Like subject to change? You mean lines change? That's a conspiracy theory and I don't believe you

Originally posted by Helmut

Pags,

It's going to rub some players the wrong way when the see most of the games 2-3 pts in your favor.

I believe this what the part that got me the most. I want to ask you if you were serious here but I have no doubt you were. Pags it might rub people the wrong way when you get better lines by being so savy and sharp so as Helmut appears to be implying here, we were wondering if maybe you could start shopping for worse lines so that people don't get so rubbed wrong? We'd apprecaite that Pag's thanks

Again I apolgize but come on already, rub players the wrong way by getting more favorable lines? You should share some of that shit you're smokin man. Hell I'll take a hit. It'd probably make me feel better about my Rutgers bets lol

MartinBlank · 09-01-08, 02:21 PM

Suggesting Pags wait "30 mins" to post is moronic.

Do me a favor, call a day trader and ask him to wait 30 minutes prior to buying or selling and see the response you get.

Sharp players get sharp lines. If Pags can get those lines, more power to him for having done his work early.

durito · 09-01-08, 02:31 PM

cris profiles it's players, if a profiled players hits an opener for the max, it's going to move.

there are plenty of people ready and waiting to bet the second those numbers come up.

Helmut · 09-01-08, 03:24 PM

Why do so many people on these forums post plays using none WA numbers? I'll never do it, but you guys go ahead and do what ever the **** you want.

Dazzez · 09-01-08, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by Helmut

Why do so many people on these forums post plays using none WA numbers? I'll never do it, but you guys go ahead and do what ever the **** you want.

What I find problematic about pags' picks (and it's no disrespect intended to pags personally) is that not only is he posting these non widely available opening numbers but he's also somehow managing to find a bookie to take them all at +100.

I don't doubt that pags is able to make money betting this way, and more power to him. But a person attempting to tail his picks, having to consistently bet not only at a line 1+ points worse than pags, but also at -110 (versus pags' +100) should exercise caution.