Pags' Plays 9/6

[pags11]

regularguy,

that is valid for you to feel that way about the Nevada secondary...I think that this is a game you have to have a very strong stomach to bet Nevada in this game (as you can see it was the last game I bet on my card)...I'll explain more in my write-up tomorrow, but I see a high scoring shootout here and think Nevada can trade scores with Texas Tech...

[WestsidePete]

Anyone who doubt's pag's should have followed him last year...mostly dogs like I see here and excellent results...Now I was in Miami in July and this was probably the lowest amount of attention given to the Canes that I've seen in a long time...they know they need to make a statement to at least play respectable in this game three plus touchdowns is a lot...agree that the qb for Miami is key to this one...must keep the mistakes down...GL Pags

[pags11]

westsidepete,

thanks for the recognition and thanks also for speaking the truth...isn't it all about making plays and enjoying the action...for people to be splitting hairs about things takes away from what we should really focusing on...thanks again...

yes, the Miami game should be an interesting one...got to stay ahead of the chains and keep 3rd downs managable...I do think the Miami D and special teams will come to play...BOL to you sir...

[WIRE]

Hey Pags, Thanks For Last Week, You Did Me Right. I Appreciate All The Research You Do. Between What You Know, And The Teensy Bit I Know, We Should Do Good This Year Lol....i Like The Georgia Tech And Penn State Picks. I Know You Dont Do Points, But I Like The Over In The Nevada Game.was Wandering How You Felt About The Lsu Game, They Are At -23 Right Now....thanks Bud And Gl

[vicash25]

Good luck this week pags!!

[BuddyBear]

Why don't we just have a 24 hour round the clock camera on Pags to make sure he is telling the truth?

You guys don't even understand how hard he works. He is busy setting his own lines, developing power ratings of each team and conference, watching game tape, talking with contacts, monitoring line movement, keeping tabs on injury reports and weather updates, etc... How many of you guys do any of that?

Most of you guys need to relax and just watch how he does and maybe you could learn a thing or two over the course year. Remember, "genius is 1% percent inspiration, 99% percent perspiration." He works day and night at this and the fact that he gets the best number/juice is a reflection of his committment to his extraordinary handicapping skills.

Good luck this week Coach....

[Richkas]

Here are my 6 plays for this week pags. What do you think of them.


South Carolina -9.5 -110
Navy +7 -115
Oregon -36 -110
WakeForest -7.5 -110
UConn -7 -110
Texas -26.5 -110


all to win 1 unit

[pags11]

wire,

thanks bro...it should be a fun season together then...yeah, I'm not a totals player but there should be quite a few points scored in the Texas Tech vs. Nevada game...no opinion on the LSU game, but I wouldn't go against Les Miles at home as a bully...GL...

vicash,

thank you...GL to you as well...

buddybear,

well said my friend...thank you for that...I'm sure we will talk before Saturday and look forward to the conversation...

richkas,

I think that Vandy is going have some problems scoring points tonight and do like that Smelley is starting at QB for South Carolina...I can see why the line has moved up in this game but no lean either way...I think the Navy vs. Ball St. game is going to be one high-flying entertaining game and don't blame you at all for siding with the points in that one...Nate Davis and Shun White are the two players to keep your eye on...I wouldn't go against Oregon at home (have learned the hard way before), but not interested in laying those points...I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them cover that number...I know a lot of people are high on Mississippi this week, but I have a slight lean to Wake Forest...against you on the UConn play...that's a ton of points to lay on the road with Texas, but they probably get that done...GL to you and remember, don't do drugs!...

[SoonerBS]

GL to you and remember, don't do drugs!

[gm2022]

Here are my 6 plays for this week pags. What do you think of them.


South Carolina -9.5 -110
Navy +7 -115
Oregon -36 -110
WakeForest -7.5 -110
UConn -7 -110
Texas -26.5 -110


all to win 1 unit

Hit south carolina hard boys

[WIRE]

Pags, Are You Still With Penn State Even With The 3 Suspensions Of Some Key Players

[pags11]

soonerbs,



gm2022,

3rd and goal from the 20 and Vandy's in press coverage vs. McKinely with no saftey help?...that was brutal just now...

WIRE,

the suspensions defintely concern me...I would fee comfortable recommending the play at -14 now although I bet the game at -16.5 (+102) for my investors at matchbook earlier and am sticking with the play...you will see more in my write-up tonight...

[The Seer]

Pags,
Looks like I'll be with you on Miami, GTech, and ECU. People saw Florida run past an outmanned Hawaii but they don't realize that Miami has kids that run well also. I agree with everyone in that Miami has to stay in manageable down and distances for their young QB. This is a pride game here as both schools have tons of kids from within the state. In these type of games, I'll definitely take 3 TDs with good talent. I see this game being fairly close for a while.
Also, anyone who plays GT will have problems defending their midline option. It's something a defense needs to see regularly to defend effectively. I wouldn't be surprised if they made a run for the conference title this year.
As for ECU, Skip Holtz has quietly built a competitive program there. I think they can make a game of it with WV. Looks like I've got a good start on the weekend as Vandy cashes for the second straight year. Good luck to you this week.

[pags11]

seer,

sharp analysis bud...thanks for posting...GL this week bud...

[awhitejackson]

Pags...appreciate the picks bro.. Following you on all but Stanford and WVU (the second for obvious reasons and because you can now find the line at 7)... Anyhow good to see you back and lets make some money this weekend. Also I totally agree on taking Penn St up to 17...GL

[pags11]

awhite,

thanks very much man for the positive energy...good to hear we will be on some games together...GL to you...

[buckeyeforbass]

pags,

Im sure you have answered this q before, but ... I noticed that you mostly pick dogs, is there a reason behind that ?

[GatorFan]

Pags,

I am with you on Temple +7 and ECU +7.5. Good luck to you bro.

[pags11]

Temple +7

Temple has had the number one recruiting class in the MAC the past three years and I really like the team that Al Golden has put together this year. They return all twenty-two starters from a team played very competitive football towards the end of last year. I was able to watch their game last week vs. Army and came away fairly impressed, especially with their defense. They have more team speed than I’ve seen them have in many years. I was especially impressed with KR/ CB Jamal Schulters, brother of NFL veteran Lance Schulters. I think he could have a dramatic impact in this game on special teams. QB Adam Dimichelle isn’t going to wow you, but he makes solid decisions and has a bunch of upper classmen to distribute the ball to. I look for Temple to feature RB Marquise Liverpool in the running game. A Boston College transfer, and ex-professional baseball player, he has explosiveness rarely seen from a MAC player. Also, senior WR Travis Shelton should attract attention on defense with his sub 4.3 speed. Both teams are well coached in the special teams department and both teams return both their punter and kicker. Temple returns both their punt and kick returner, whereas Connecticut lost both of their returners. I give a slight edge in special teams to Temple. Defensively, Temple will focus on containing UConn RB Donald Brown. I watched the film of last week’s game and it appears the Brown is fully healthy, having recovered from a nagging ankle injury he had most of last year. However, RB Tony Dixon, who got the majority of the carries last year didn’t play last week vs. Hofstra, and Randy Edsal has been very tight-lipped about Dixon’s status this week. If Dixon does play I don’t expect him to be 100%. The other thing that I noticed in watching last weeks film is that UConn QB Tyler Lorenzen doesn’t seem to be throwing the ball very well right now. He had a thumb injury that really affected his performance last year, and I wonder if it is still bothering him as he doesn’t seem to have much touch or strength behind his throws. He was intercepted three times last week, and I felt like two other passes should have been picked off. Lastly, this is a major revenge game from Temple as last year they had a very bad call go against them at the end of the game where their WR caught what would have been the game winning TD, but it was ruled incomplete. Expect a strong effort from Temple this week.

Miami FL +23

I can understand that after a quarter and a half that a WAC squad like Hawaii wasn’t able to hang with a talented Florida team. They had to travel across the country, play the game at what was 6 AM their time, and they were breaking in several starters, many of them at key positions. This week, though, we are talking about a Miami FL team that has athletes on both sides of the ball and the line opens only two-three points less than the Hawaii game opened? Don’t get me wrong, Florida may very well cover this game, but this game appears to me to be priced to perfection. Especially on defense, Miami has athletes that can run with the Florida offense and I think the Miami special teams are every bit as good as the Florida special teams. It will come down to Miami’s offense vs. Florida’s defense. I admit that I am concerned that Miami is starting a red shirt freshman QB in this game, but Robert Marve was one of the top QB’s in his respective recruiting class and if there’s a guy that can handle this type of pressure, he’s the guy. Look for Miami to rely on their running game by splitting carries between RB’s Javarris James and Craig Cooper. Both of these guys run hard and it will be extremely important that the Miami FL O-line work hard to open up holes. If Miami is able to establish a running game, this will allow QB Marve to have manageable third down situations. It will be imperative that Marve make good decisions, checking down, and even throwing the ball away if a receiver isn’t open. In reading last week’s box score, I saw that Hawaii turned the ball over deep in their own territory. If that happens again this week, Miami is in trouble. However, if the Miami defense can come out and establish themselves early, forcing Florida to a few punts and some field goal attempts, I think they can withstand the initial onslaught Florida will look to put on them and stay in this ballgame. A technical trend that favors Miami FL is that Miami has six straight wins vs. Florida and their last loss was back in ’85. I anticipate that Miami is going to come out extremely focused for this game. Much of what I have read on the internet and heard on TV has to have Miami feeling disrespected. Anyone remember last week when all of the “experts” said that Clemson was going to mop the floor with Alabama? Not so fast my friend. Miami FL will give maximum effort, and if they can keep turnovers to a minimum they have an excellent chance to hang around in this game.

Penn St. -13

Much is being made about the suspensions of the four players today and I can’t say that it doesn’t concern me. I can’t also disagree with those that say Joe Paterno has lost control of his players off the field how it reflects negatively on the program. You can not disagree, however, that this is the best Penn St. team he has had since his ’05 Orange Bowl team. I also think that amongst all of this adversity that they have rallied around it and become stronger as a team. I’m not saying that I condone or agree with the behavior of the Penn St. players, nor do I agree with the way head coach Joe Paterno has handled most of these situations. Remember that the only thing we really care about as handicappers is the following: Does this team have a good chance of covering the point spread this week? I have to think so. The biggest advantage that Penn St. has in this game is from a situational aspect. Oregon St. is breaking in a good deal of young players, specifically their entire front seven on defense. They are coming off a loss in which they had a chance to attempt to tie the game but fumbled the ball going into the end zone for a touchback. The way they lost the game has still got to be lingering with the players, because their schedule the next four or five games is monstrous. They blew the one chance they had to win a ballgame early in the season last week. The players know this and so does the coaching staff. If Toby Gearhart ran for 7.7 ypc vs. them last week, I can only imagine with the stable of four to five Penn St. running backs are going to do to their front seven this week. There will be over 100,000 fans in the stands and it is a cross-country trip to play a team with a big-time chip on their shoulder. Another factor working in Penn St.’s favor is that Oregon St. doesn’t see many mobile/ spread QB’s as they will this weekend when facing senior QB Daryll Clark. It is going to be an extremely difficult challenge for the defense to contain the Penn St. RB’s, led by sophomore sensation Evan Royster. Look for playmaking senior WR/KR Derrick Williams to get some carries as well. When Penn St. does choose to throw, Clark has two other senior WR’s to throw to in Jordan Norwood and Deon Butler. They also feature junior TE Andrew Quarless. Oregon St. will have to pick its poison, and over the course of the game the Penn St. offense is going to wear this defense down. I give an edge to Penn St. in the special teams department as they return both kickers and both return men. Williams took a kickoff to the house last week and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do so again this week. Kevin Kelly is as solid of a kicker as you will find in the country. Penn St. will have to pay attention to WR/KR Sammy Straughter, who is coming off a twelve catch performance last week. The other two players to focus on are the Rogers brothers, RB Jaquizz and WR James. QB Lyle Moevao did have a good game last week, but he will be in a much different environment this week, with constant pressure forcing him into some bad throws. Most people see a Big Ten team laying two plus TD’s to a Pac 10 team and see “value” in the dog, I’m not one of them. Rarely will I lay double digits, but I will do so here.

ECU +10

You have to give it up to Skip Holtz for doing a great job with the ECU program the past three years. He took over a program that had become a Conference USA doormat and not only has brought it back to respectability, but has his team in the national spotlight. When I watch East Carolina play, I see athletes that can compete in the ACC, Pac 10 and even the SEC. I’m not saying that they are going to win the national championship or anything, but I do think they have the type of athlete that isn’t going to be intimidated by West Virginia’s athleticism or team speed. Most importantly, this team believes they belong with the big boys. In their past two games they have beaten Boise St. and Virginia Tech. They are not going to back down to West Virginia on Saturday and are coming into this game with a great deal of confidence. I’m extremely impressed with senior QB Patrick Pickney, who has established himself as the clear-cut number one starter. He has great footwork and possesses good arm strength. Last week I thought he did a good job not forcing throws and isn’t afraid to tuck it and run. ECU has a speed back in Johnathon Williams and more of a short yardage back in Brandon Simmons. Both of ECU’s WR’s, Dwane Harris and Jamar Bryant, return from last year are extremely capable of making plays. Their tight end Davon Drew is also an excellent threat. This is a balanced team on offense. I think everyone in the country saw a well-coached special teams unit that played a huge role in last week’s victory over Virginia Tech. I look for more of the same from them this week, as good special teams play will be a key to ECU trading blows with West Virginia. ECU returns their punter, kicker, punt returner and one of their two kick returners. You can count on Skip Holtz making sure that this unit in particular is ready to play on Saturday. The ECU defense will have its hands full in defending the West Virginia offense. In particular, they will have to focus on containing WVU QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine. A key to defending Devine is making sure to keep him from getting in the open field, which is when he does his most damage. Look for run blitzes from ECU to keep him from breaking off big runs. Much as been made of Pat White passing the ball, and while he is adequate in that area, West Virginia doesn’t have the type of playmakers at the receiver position to put a big scare into the ECU defense. Expect the ECU defensive scheme to be centered on spying White and keep him from creating big plays with is legs. While a difficult task, I think ECU is up for the challenge. Last week many said ECU was “lucky”, I’m not sure they will say the same if ECU performs the way they can again this week.


Georgia Tech +7.5

It was very interesting last week to watch Georgia Tech run Paul Johnson’s offense with such skilled athletes. Those of you that have been following me for years can attest to how much money we made with Johnson’s Navy squads. What was amazing about what he accomplished while at Navy, was that he had merely above average athletes. He has much more athletic players to work with now and this should make his scheme that much harder to defend. I was especially impressed with RB Johnathon Dwyer last week. People forget that when Tashard Choice was hurt last year, Dwyer stepped up and filled in nicely. He will be a key cog in the Georgia Tech offensive game plan this week. I was able to watch QB Josh Nesbitt in the bowl game last year and think that he’s definitely the right type of player to run the triple option attack. I do have some concerns about the health of his shoulder, but I don’t anticipate he will have to throw a whole lot in this game. When he does he will have both returning WR’s Greg Smith and Demarylus Thomas to help move the chains. Look for freshman RB Roddy Jones to make an impact in this game as well. Georgia Tech lost both their punter and kicker from last year but do return all of their punt and kick returners. Boston College loses their punter and their punt returner, but return their kicker and kick returner. The special teams are about even. Defensively, the key match-up in this game will be between the Georgia Tech defensive line and the Boston College offensive line. B.C. will look to feed the ball to highly touted freshman RB Josh Haden. Although Georgia Tech does have injuries to two of their linebackers heading into this game I think the defense can contain the B.C running game and will force QB Chris Cane, who has a total of 58 career passing attempts, to beat them. B.C. does return three of their top four pass catchers from last year in Rich Gunnell, Brandon Robinson and Ryan Purvis, but the lack of experience by Cane could affect their ability to make plays. I have respect for Jeff Jagodzinski as a coach, but I have even more for Paul Johnson. This should end up a grind-it-out ground battle between two similar teams and I’ll hope for some more magic from a Johnson coached squad.

Stanford +14.5

I followed Jim Harbaugh when he took over the San Diego program several years ago and wondered what type of head coach he would be. He was definitely a hard-nosed, mentally tough player and I thought that his teams might take on a similar personality. I watched him build the San Diego program into one of the top I-AA squads in the country and I felt Stanford made a good hire in him, but still had questions on whether or not he could make Stanford a truly competitive Pac 10 program again. I say this because I saw some pretty good coaches come in the past decade, Walt Harris in particular, and have very little success. Recruiting at Stanford is very difficult with its academic restrictions and it takes a special coach to get kids into buying in to be a part of the Stanford football program. Despite all of these obstacles, he has this program going in the right direction and is flying under the radar as one of the most underrated coaches in the country. I was able to watch his team play last week and liked most of what I saw. Last year I remember watching Stanford play SJSU and RB Toby Gerhart was sensational. I thought that he had the potential to be one of the best RB’s in the Pac 10 until he ended up injuring himself later that game. He is back healthy, after having played in the College World Series this summer for the Stanford baseball team, and appears to be at full strength. RB Anthony Kimble is a nice change-of-pace back and also catches the ball well out of the backfield. Look for Stanford to center their offensive game plan on these two players, which will allow QB Tavita Pritchard to be put in manageable third down situations. WR Richard Sherman is Stanford’s leading returning pass catcher and has the ability to run after the catch. Stanford returns both their punt returner and their kick returner but loses both their punter and kicker from last year. ASU returns Thomas Weber, who punts and kicks for them and also their kick returner Kyle Williams. I give the edge in special teams to ASU but Stanford will utilize discipline to make up for some of what they lack in athleticism in their special teams. The biggest challenge for Stanford will be in defending ASU QB Rudy Carpenter. The good news for Stanford is that the Achilles heel of the ASU offense is with their offensive line. Stanford will have to get pressure from their front four to help their secondary, who struggled last week vs. Oregon St. I have read that playmaking WR Michael Jones is questionable this week, which should help Stanford’s cause. Also, RB Keegan Herring has a lingering hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for this week’s game. Dimitri Nance is a talented back, but he doesn’t have the breakaway speed that Herring possesses. WR Chris McGaha is a good possession receiver and Kyle Williams has big play potential but needs to work on his route-running. This all being said, Stanford is not being asked to walk into Sundevil stadium and win the ball game, they are getting two plus TD’s. Also, much is being made of Stanford wearing down in the second half of this game. Understand that last week it was 89 degrees at kickoff, part of which could be due to the hurricane and tropical storm back east playing havoc on the weather. Harbaugh’s teams are tough and well conditioned, they will battle in this game until the end. If they can force Carpenter to check down routinely and eat up clock with their running game, they should give themselves an excellent shot in this one.


Nevada +10.5

This game was by far the hardest for me to click the “submit” button on. At first glance you see a powerful Big 12 squad vs. an upper tier WAC school and think that it’s going to be a slaughter. I’m just not sold that this is going to be the case when this game does take place on Saturday evening. Last year I kept hearing about how Texas Tech was this great team, but every time I watched them I came away unimpressed. Don’t get me wrong, I think QB Graham Harrell is one of the top QB’s in the country and I do have respect for Mike Leach’s offensive scheme. It takes more than a great QB and play caller to become an elite program and I’m just not sold that the Texas Tech running game is all that good, or that their defense is “much improved” as everyone says that it is. I can’t get the bowl game vs. Virginia out of my head. It was a game that for three and a half quarters they made the Virginia offense look like world beaters, when really the UVA offense was merely average. They were destroyed by Missouri’s spread, and let Colorado put up almost forty points on them at home. Then they start off this season by giving up 24 points to Eastern Washington. Yeah, yeah, I understand that Eastern Washington possesses a “potent” offense, but they aren’t even in the same subdivision as Texas Tech! C’mon people. Nevada possesses one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the country, combined with also one of the more underrated home field advantages around. QB Colin Kaepernick burst on the scene last year vs. Boise St. and is an excellent dual threat QB. He had an incredible touchdown to interception ratio last year of 19:3. I know it was “just Southern” last week, but the Nevada offense put up over 600 yards of total offense in that game. Much of the damage was done by the running back tandem of senior Luke Lippincott and junior Brandon Fragger. Everyone is saying that Texas Tech’s run D is “stout” but I do feel that Nevada will be able to move the ball through the ground. This will take some of the pressure of Kaepernick who does have two senior WR’s to throw the ball to in Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy. Nevada also features their secret weapon, red shirt freshman Zach Sudfield, who was the Scout Team Offensive Player of the Year last season. Nevada returns their senior kicker Brett Jaeckle, who will also be handling the punting duties this year. They also return both kick returners but lose their punt returner from last year. Texas Tech returns everyone but their kicker and top punt returner from last year. I give a slight edge to Texas Tech in this department, although Jaeckle is definitely the better kicker of the two. Say what you want about Chris Ault, but the guy can flat-out coach. For many years now, he has been able to get his players to play above their ability level. That’s exactly what he will have to do in this game as his defense will be faced with the task of trying to contain the Graham Harrell to WR Michael Crabtree duo. The only good news is that WR Eric Morris is Texas Tech’s only other playmaker. RB Shannon Woods has been in and out of Mike Leach’s doghouse, and Leach has a tendency to abandon his running game in the second half of ball games. Texas Tech will get their points in this game, but so will Nevada. On paper you may think to yourself “blowout”, but Nevada will find ways to stay in this game.

[pags11]

buckeye,

anything can happen in college football...and trust me when I say anything...

gatorfan,

good to hear we will be on those two together...GL this week bro...

[xyzky]

Well..You know I am with you Pag's and I will give you first hand knowledge of the game...

[pags11]

xyzky,

thank you my friend...nice avatar by the way...

[DrLuck]

sounds good pags GL this week

[pags11]

dr. luck,

thank you...GL to you too...

[crackerjack]

Nice write up...definitely did your homework.

[masr]

Nice write up...with you on GA tech and Temple
Good luck this week

[gopherbroke]

toby.

I would play Penn St. up to -17...GL to you...

I presume this position has changed, but if one is still able to buy it out at -150, would you?

Thanks in advance, and BOL

[taurus]

buckeye,

anything can happen in college football...and trust me when I say anything...gatorfan,

good to hear we will be on those two together...GL this week bro...

how true, bro, how true. May I use those words on certain of my buddies?

Thanks again for the terrific write ups. I seldom play against you, but am going on UConn. But as 'anything can happen' I won't be too surprised either way. I just think UConn remembers that game last year too, and will be well focused so as not to put themselves in that position again this year.

Following you on all the others-( GT was already on my card )- and it includes Nevada. Gritting my teeth as I hit the button on that one.
Best of luck to you.

[pavyracer]

Nice write up pags. Good luck.

If you get some time let me know what you think of these plays:

Georgia -24
Wake Forest -7.5
Kansas -20
Maryland -12.5

Thanks

[BigDeal]

Pags, Thanks again for the insight! I was wondering though if you have taken into account the possible weather problems that face some of your picks? Hurricane Hanna is due for landfall tonight. I see you have alot of east coast games. Just curious! Again great insight!

[bosterosoy]

Pags,

Great write-up, good luck and thanks for the detailed info.

[icemantbi]

Thanks for the picks and writeups pags. Looks solid as always.

[gopherbroke]

Thanks for the picks and writeups pags. Looks solid as always.

Who is in your avatar, iceman?

[sir.civic]

jst my 2 cents...(n gud 2 b back@ sbr) i like the miami pick i dont no who was able to get on the +23 but im on for 21.5 dat half point might be the key ftw...and for the others who r skeptic jst do ur own work....in my opinion der isnt much info about college football as of now since its week 2 only and last years stats wont do u any gud (maybe alil)alwayz go w/ the gut instinct.

my picks
miami 21.5
neb -26
utah -21.5
mich -14.5

i feel the faves will still prevail dis week.....gudluck guys, let our bankrolls roll

[maritime]

I think ESPN checked out Pags plays

Great writeups pags, as always. I'm driving today listening to the Scott Van Pelt show on ESPN radio and the dude starts giving his picks. He's on East Carolina +8, Temple +7, and Miami +22. I was like what the hell. Those were his only college plays I think. Generally the ESPN so called analysts are pretty square as we know. So my guess is that he's checking out this thread.