GL tonight bro! With you on Toledo. Still unsure about the over. I think 68 is spot on or little high. More so if Toledo dominates early. If its a tight game, that may possibly mean a shootout with NIU covering +9.5 and the over. Or perhaps it'll be a 42-30 win for Toledo. I've been off kilter lately, so who knows. Regardless, I feel fairly strong that Toledo is the play also. GL on your card this week also.
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Spladle, maybe you are doing bad because you're too optimistic? I'm not sure. For example Hawaii -7.5 maybe you were thinking that they would win so you bet them ATS but the game turned out much closer although they won. Are they going to win against the spread? And thats the real question you have to decide. You did well earlier on in the season but things have changed now. The betting is much more situational now instead of stats on paper. Its about let down games, home field advantage, and odd lines that sucker you into betting. Just an opinion.Comment -
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Thanks for the win Spladle, I've been fading you and winning. Are you going to release this weeks pick? Thanks.Comment -
Thanks for the advice, however in that particular game it was a 70 yard fumble return for a TD that screwed me... not the type of thing you can factor in, but yeah I need to break games down more and I am.
Ras yeah I am a huge NIU fan, lol the one time I fade them is the one time they win for me lol, my bet on the over was bigger however so I win a little... thats how it goes.
yeah Creative, I am throwing out 8 picks, fade them all and make millions, good luck sir.Comment -
Pathetically enough, discipline did not take place just now:
tomorrow's card: (fade me)
200.00 to win 185.19
Football - 303 Temple/Ohio under 47½ -108 for Game
And
200.00 to win
185.19
Football - 303 Temple -3½ -108 for GameComment -
If you are betting what I say, risk your house on the UNDER, I just doubled my bet... its an easy win, GOOD LUCK GUYS..Comment -
Some unusual post for your thread... I hope you kill it this week, just to get it back to normal around here...Comment -
You know I tailed you two weeks ago and got killed pretty hard. Just changing things up.
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with the Over/Under being 47.5 you're expecting a heck of a sweat huh? I hope your wrong but Ive been cold as Ice, so wouldn't surprise me if you are right
Short justification, on the under, and Temple.
Though Ohio and Temple have scored a lot in other games, I don't see this being a shootout. Temple's D has been money on the road, holding opponents to 23 points (total) over 3 games (Maryland, Akron, Bowling Green) not the greatest competition but still an impressive number. Ohio hasnt been as impressive at home but they have given up a total of 40points through 4 games (which is also a pretty impressive number despite the competition) the more I look the more I want to justify Temple -3 as the play and not so much the UNDER... let me sidetrack
I know Ohio has been better in the past
Temple has the monster defense and relies heavily on the run. Ohio has a lack-luster defense, and has had some pretty crappy run-stopping performances (the only reason their rushing against is 119 is because they gave up 6 to NMST and 81 to Akron... without those 2 numbers it would be 145+). Common opponents include Buffalo, Ball State, and Akron, who Temple outscored 117-3 (winning all 3 games obviously) while Ohio, went 94-81 dropping 2 of the 3 contests (Ball State/Buffalo) wow...
Temple is 12-4 ATS over the last 4 seasons in road games, while Ohio is 5-1 in November games ATS, and 5-1 o/u in those games.... interesting,
Temple though is 0-7 over/under and I think their D will control this one, I am hoping for a final score of 14-10 or something like that, but who knows...
Anyways Im getting started on my 8-game fade material, Im done with this game GL CHICOsComment -
FADE MATERIAL #1 locked in for 3u....
UTEP/Rice: UTEP +1 nevermind OVER 56.5 for 3uwhat the hell is going on here? Am I seeing things?
UTEP has been better across the board… true they have played softer competition but let’s looks at some games from both sides.
The only common opponents are Houston and Southern Miss (who are both good teams) Houston beat Utep by 7 and Rice by 39. Southern Miss beat Rice by 24 and Utep by 18… nothing too spectacular in those numbers.
Neither team has any notable wins; I guess you could consider Purdue a decent win for Rice… but after I make one more point I’m abandoning the side and jumping on the “Over” bandwagon (I assume there is one out there somewhere.)
UTEP is favored in almost every relevant statistical category, points for/against, Passing-Rushing for/against, Turnover diff, etc… true Rice has played Baylor/Tulsa/Houston and they can make a lot of teams defenses look bad but I’m just not seeing why the line has moved in their favor. Fun stat:
“The betting public is correct when moving the total in RICE games 35.3% of the time since 1992. (30-55)”
Last year UTEP won big at home (44-24) and the year before Rice won @ home 30-29 but were aided by 6 UTEP turnovers… a 1 point victory when you are +5 on turnovers… hmmmm anyways if I had to play a side I would say UTEP easy, but I am going to look at this over instead.
SINCE 2002 no less than 59points (total) has been scored in ANY game between theses 2 teams, the average total in those 9 games is ~73
Both teams give up points (27 for Utep, 37 for Rice) Both teams have offenses able to score (Rice has only been held under 20 once this year), and history is on my side… Im taking OVER 56.5 for 3u… BOOM Cash it
EDIT**** No clue whats going on with the font, it wont let me fix it...
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just decided Im going to make a week 10 "fade material" thread... seems like a good ideaComment -
you should go back to the original picture... you got hot and picked up a hot chick pic. went big time. lol I am just talking out of my ass butComment -
I laughed at picturing you actually talking out of your "ass-butt"
and yes I know I added a t
BOL
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I see my "fading" joke picking up a steam
You know we rarely agree on something but one thing I hope everyone on this thread can see tale or fade spladle08 you prone to make some money just need to pick right week to do one or another.Comment -
You'll get it back together spladle. Under looks to be a sucker bet though. Both teams put up points like someone said earlier. I'll stay away from it, but I will hope for a low scoring game for your sake. Like Temple - the points maybe? May put money just because I feel the need to. Hit 3 nights in a row, ride it while it's working right? Ha, doubt it continues.
Anyway, good luck tonight spladle. Hope you come out of your funk.Comment -
Thanks Doughnut, got a clear head now and getting some good bets locked in. I locked in "Temple and the under", with the help of Captain Morgan last night but I think I would have done it today also... I just feel thats the right side of things.
Thanks for the positive comments, hope we all crush this weekend....
I will have 8 locked in by tonight, and if I don't go at least 6-2 its going to be a fail
(aim high)
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Like the optimism. I'll probably put a little on Temple tonight. Can't see them laying back-to-back eggs. Let's win a little tonight
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Man, man, man,...
Support u completely but not on your picks! U really need a BIG weekend, I hope u get one.
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Wish I could have been one her earlier to talk you out of the under
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The rest of the week and weekend will get better! Luckily I didn't have power or else I probably would have been on Temple with you, but I couldn't bet. My picks are up so just do the opposite of me and you will probably be ok!Comment -
Im only playing 8 this weekend, Im sure yall are opposite on all of them but here is my ticket... probably another 1600 flushed down the drain.... blah blah blah.
OK so my final card is....
AFA/ARMY: OVER 59
Utep/Rice: UTEP ML
Utep/Rice: Over 56.5
ARK. ST/FAU: Ark. St. -17
ARK/SC: ARK -5.5
ASU/UCLA: ASU -8.5
Baylor/Missouri: OV 73
Rutgers/USF: Rutgers ML
FADE ME HARD
Only 8 plays because I want to win for onceComment -
Oh man, I was going to roll with Arkansas, ASU, and Rutgers but now I'm not sure... haha... just kidding. BOL this weekendComment -
I wont say anything about totals but 5 sides you took all on the road
You can be onto something but I'm pretty sure there are easier way to get back on the horse.
GL just don't make it harder than it has 2b and it hard enough already
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It is plenty hard...
lol I was upset last night and just locked in what I thought were my top 8 at the time.
I know I made it look like it was on the road but 2 are at home, and I dont think UCLA has a prayer vs ASU, nor Rice vs UTEP...
Rutgers and Arkansas are both at home....
Totals... who knows?Comment -
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ARM-QB-Trent Steelman-OUT AIR-QB-Tim Jefferson-Probable... was that factored into your over pick?Comment -
LOL had FSU Over/Tulsa/Miami Ohio tonight, planned on playing all the games I had in this $35 parlay as they came up...but after playing a side to negate the NIU win and then losing 2 ways on Temple, I decided just to wait for my 8 weekend plays to come up… tonight would have been alright
#1) Wager Type : Total
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : College Football / Game
Selection : No Illinois/Toledo
Time : 11/1/2011 4:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : Over 67 -110
Game Notes : (ESPN2)
#2) Wager Type : Total
Outcome : Loss
Sport / Period : College Football / Game
Selection : Temple/Ohio
Time : 11/2/2011 5:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : Under 47 -110
Game Notes : (ESPN2)
#3) Wager Type : Spread
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : College Football / Game
Selection : Miami Ohio
Time : 11/3/2011 4:30:01PM - (PST)
Line : -14½ -110
Game Notes : (ESPNU)
#4) Wager Type : Total
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : College Football / Game
Selection : Florida State/Boston College
Time : 11/3/2011 5:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : Over 44½ -110
Game Notes : (ESPN)
#5) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : College Football / Game
Selection : Tulsa
Time : 11/3/2011 5:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : +100
Game Notes : (CBSC)
#6) Wager Type : Total
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : College Football / Game
Selection : Central Michigan/Kent
Time : 11/4/2011 5:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : Under 43 -110
Game Notes : (ESPNU) TIME CHANGE
#7) Wager Type : Spread
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : College Football / Game
Selection : USC
Time : 11/4/2011 6:00:01PM - (PST)
Line : -21½ -110
This was the Parlay I made for the week, just to pass time, like I said was going to do a bet (2u) on each, but after my early week fails, I decided to hold off... possibly a bad call..
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Steelman is their second leading rusher so that sucks, but Jenkins is a senior and he should be able to step in and help lead this offense (they are going to get pummeled regardless, but Im sure that rushing game can put up a few TD's) but yeah makes the AFA -17 look even more golden.Comment -
I'll be bored at work tomorrow so I will prolly look at a ton of games, trying to stay disciplined though, might point out some lines I feel are off, but wont be adding any plays... unless of course I fall off the wagonComment -
Ugh, why did the Army/Af Total go from 58.5 to 55.5 over night?Comment -
QB for AF is hurt I think ....not sure though ...go check espn.com out.....SPLADLE GET THE FUC BACK IN HERE>>>>>everyone has a dry run bro....get those funky ears back in the forum ....Hope all is good bro....peaceComment -
There QB was hurt yesterday when it was 3 pt higher...Comment
