Spladle08 (Thread for rest of season)

brahmabull117 · 10-05-11, 09:19 PM

you should have teased that stanford play bro, the only team in the country that you can lay 30 point spreads with is Oregon and Boise in the past

stanford plays a very physical brand of football that gives them much fewer possessions than say Oregon. SU wil have to to score on nearly every drive to really secure this spead win - I actually have stanford in this one by 28 pts

spladle08 · 10-05-11, 09:26 PM

Blah yeah I locked it in because I saw a stat awhile back that they had won like 7 of their last 8 by 25+, and I think now it would be 9 of their last 10 or 10 of their last 11... anyways they cover often, I never feel 100% confident in them but they always cover, they beasted an under-rated Arizona team by a similar number and I can honestly see Colorado going scoreless here. I think Colorado has a severely depleted secondary and LUCK will have a field day... anyways, Im just praying to see a 48-14 effort but we will see... Blah Blah Blah pray

brahmabull117 · 10-05-11, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by spladle08

Blah yeah I locked it in because I saw a stat awhile back that they had won like 7 of their last 8 by 25+, and I think now it would be 9 of their last 10 or 10 of their last 11... anyways they cover often, I never feel 100% confident in them but they always cover, they beasted an under-rated Arizona team by a similar number and I can honestly see Colorado going scoreless here. I think Colorado has a severely depleted secondary and LUCK will have a field day... anyways, Im just praying to see a 48-14 effort but we will see... Blah Blah Blah pray

I would hedge out of that play if I were you

I was probably the person who gave you that state that Stanford has won 9 of their last 10 by 25+ but you're not betting on a 20 point spread, you're betting on a 29 point spread. Stanford has only won 2 of their 4 games this year by 30+ points and only 6 of their 13 games last year by 30 points

I agree with you that Colorado is absolutely horrible, but this is just such a dangerous backdoor type spread (especially with a slower paced team like stanford that doesn't really get all that many possessions). I mean Stanford could be 42-7 in the 4th quarter in this game and give up a garbage time TD with 2 minutes to go and kill your play

hedge it and then tease it below 20 with the oklahoma. OU is a damn near lock to win that game and you avoid any sort of a backdoor cover possibility with a 10 point teaser

brahmabull117 · 10-05-11, 09:44 PM

here are a couple more plays you should add though

virginia tech/miami under 44.5 - this line should be no more than 40-41. Vtech's offense has been absolutely terrible so far this year, while their defense has been phenomenal. Expect no more than 14-20 points a side here

Baylor/Iowa State over - Baylor is something like 9-1 on Home Overs heading back to last season. RG3 should put up 50 points in this one with the defense allowing 20-30 points for an easy cover

spladle08 · 10-05-11, 09:50 PM

Definately interested in the Baylor total, havent seen the numbers but was thinking about a play on the Arkansas/Auburn over as well assuming its 65 or less.

spladle08 · 10-05-11, 09:53 PM

Nevermind I just locked in 63.5 on both games... not sure I should have on the Auburn one but dont hate it

brahmabull117 · 10-05-11, 09:56 PM

I don't like that auburn play nearly as much as the baylor game, Arkansas still has a decent defense and that game should be in the high 20s/low 30s

another very high total that might be worth a stab is houston vs ECU. 2 Teams that throw the ball 40+ times a game - should be 49-38 type score in that one

spladle08 · 10-05-11, 09:59 PM

Yeah that was a total "impulse" play.... reflecting on it now, Ark will score high 30's to mid 40's on a relatively weak Auburn defense, and I think we can count on Auburn to get in the low 30's against an equally weak Ark Defense... meh now that I think about it, I think it will be an easy cover, But yeah ISU/Baylor has shoot out written all over it, Baylor is similar to Kansas, except you feel they actually can win games.

spladle08 · 10-06-11, 09:43 PM

Anyone got any locks I should add... ?

Bentley · 10-07-11, 12:46 AM

lsu all day lsu defense is better than alabama and florida plays with speed.. lsu is bigger and faster and has good enough d to shut them out.. im a florida gator fan our back up is a piece.. florida's run game only works on teams that dont have their kind of speed.. lsu does so did alabama

spladle08 · 10-07-11, 12:50 AM

Thanks Bentley. I will look into it more in the morning, I think I liked this game at first but then started questioning if LSU would score enough. They have been money in the bank when I played them, so I will give it another look today and post my little "for what its worth" review...

spladle08 · 10-07-11, 08:10 PM

family day tomorrow apparently, juiced my picks to 4u each... dont know if I will have time to add any tomorrow, maybe a few late night plays... hoping for a winner tonight.. lets go Boise.

spladle08 · 10-07-11, 11:26 PM

6-3
Boise/Fresno OV 58.5 W
KU/OSU OV 71.5W
Michigan -7W
Arizona -1.5L
ASU -4W
TCU OV 55
Maryland/GTech OV 63.5L
Stanford -29.5W

2 games added
Auburn/Ark: OV 63.5L
Baylor/ISU:OV 63.5W

spladle08 · 10-08-11, 06:04 PM

Just got home, wow Georgia Tech didnt score worth a crap.... and I dont know what to think about Zona... but Im kind of ashamed by these picks... Im hoping the back end does better... looking to add some now. Hopw others are doing better than I

spladle08 · 10-08-11, 09:40 PM

Im pretty confident in the TCU game that just started... but Im already only 6-3

if I end tonight with a win, I will end NCAAF 7-3 obviously if I lose 6-4, not the worst but I expected to do better. Sorry anyone who tailed me. I will do better next week.

Just added 2nd half of TCU game over to my picks, not sure if Im tracking halfs in my win/loss.. I reckon I should since its a wager but I think I am just doing game threads, so win or lose I will not add it. not looking good overall though prolly gonna be a 6-4 weekend

spladle08 · 10-09-11, 10:08 AM

[COLOR=#000000 !important] 6-4.... terrible weekend, im sorry guys. I'll do better next weend... I suck
Boise/Fresno OV 58.5 W
KU/OSU OV 71.5W
Michigan -7W
Arizona -1.5L
ASU -4W
TCU OV 55L
Maryland/GTech OV 63.5L
Stanford -29.5W

2 games added
Auburn/Ark: OV 63.5L
Baylor/ISU:OV 63.5W[/COLOR]

spladle08 · 10-09-11, 10:09 AM

17-7-1 YTD lets get this ship right next Saturday

spladle08 · 10-09-11, 08:40 PM

Early games that caught my eye… should have full write ups on spreads tomorrow, and team totals whenever they are released.
Baylor/A&M OV
Michigan (+3)
Cincinnati -14.5
Georgia Tech -8
OkieSt -8 or Over
Clemson -8.5
Northwestern +6
Stanford -20
OU/KS OV
USU -4
ASU/Oregon OV

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 01:18 PM

Im simply playing too many games this week which is a direct result of writing on too many games. Anyways I already have 30u in play and im sure I will make some last second wagers but we'll just see how it goes (I should just condense the 30 units into 5 games or something but I like to be entertained a little more all day .....during basketball its easier to bet and not watch the games, football however I like watching em all day sigh)

****NOTE I got some of these numbers so bad its ridiculous****

SDSU/AF OV 59
USC -3
USC/CAL OV 58.5
Hawaii -6
Toledo -7
Purdue +11.5
Baylor OV 75.5
Temple -21
OSU -7.5
OSU OV 64.5
NIU/WM OV 68.5
Clemson -9
Stanford -21
OU/KU OV 72
Oregon/ASU OV 66

Lots of favs and overs, I did write ups on all these, but yeah 15 wagers 30u, wish me luck this will definitely be a wash.

ken10 · 10-12-11, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by spladle08

Im simply playing too many games this week which is a direct result of writing on too many games. Anyways I already have 30u in play and im sure I will make some last second wagers but we'll just see how it goes (I should just condense the 30 units into 5 games or something but I like to be entertained a little more all day .....during basketball its easier to bet and not watch the games, football however I like watching em all day sigh)

****NOTE I got some of these numbers so bad its ridiculous****

SDSU/AF OV 59
USC -3
USC/CAL OV 58.5
Hawaii -6
Toledo -7
Purdue +11.5
Baylor OV 75.5
Temple -21
OSU -7.5
OSU OV 64.5
NIU/WM OV 68.5
Clemson -9
Stanford -21
OU/KU OV 72
Oregon/ASU OV 66

Lots of favs and overs, I did write ups on all these, but yeah 15 wagers 30u, wish me luck this will definitely be a wash.

Where can I find your USC/CAL write up!?

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 01:41 PM

ooops, didnt do any write ups on the Thursday and Friday games but I will right now if you would like.... USC/CAL LETS GO! give me 20min or so

ken10 · 10-12-11, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by spladle08

ooops, didnt do any write ups on the Thursday and Friday games but I will right now if you would like.... USC/CAL LETS GO! give me 20min or so

Thanks man. only been lurking for a week but can already see you are one of the more informative ones (and successful)

Also, I am too scared to bet the overs on college ball... it's just too high. should i grow some balls?

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 02:22 PM

im well into it but girlfriend is here so I have to stop for a bit so give me a little bit longer but convincing myself.

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 02:32 PM

USC vs CAL, USC-3 and Over 58.5
Note I made this bet without much research which I already frown upon, but maybe research will confirm my previous thoughts.
USC (30/26) 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 Over/Under
Cal (34/28) 3-2 SU, 2-3ATS and 3-2 O/U
Ok well those don’t say much, basically mirror images, let’s keep looking.
Fun fact, in all October games over the last 3 years USC is 8-1 Over/Under J I like that stat. As many people have said USC has kind-of “released” the offense over the past 3 games, Barkley going for 468 in their last outing but that was against a Zona team that is horrible against the pass. In the previous game the offense didn’t have much to brag about (but ASU has a pretty decent defense,) the USC D however gave up 43 (which will factor in to our over conversation later) anyways in the Syracuse game (final of the last 3 I will be citing) Barkley went crazy through the air going for 324 YDS, 5 TDs. Ok now that the stage is semi-set let’s look at the numbers. (I have to cite certain games because I can’t exactly value the 48yrds they held Presbyterian to because yeah) Cal has let Colorado go for 474 through the air 108 on the ground, Wash 292-117, and Oregon 365 on the ground and 198 through the air, as said before they did have decent outing against fresno and Presbyterian but lets not put to much weight into those games, between the Colorado/Oregon/Washington (1 poor, 1 middle of the road, and one good team) they average giving up 35pts per… and trust me USC is more than capable of putting up offensive numbers similar to Colorado/Washington. Now for Cal’s Offense vs USC’s Defense. Cal is averaging 147 on the ground and 300 through the air, conversely USC is allowing 112 on the ground and 267 through the air so don’t expect those numbers to change much. USC has given up over 40 in their last 2 games, while Cal has only managed to put up 23 and 15, I think you can count on Cal for 21+ here as they should have had more against Oregon meh look for them to rebound after their fail offensively last game, and obviously USC has a porous D. I would give you more number but girlfriend is still pouring out emotional baggage so I have to go, I will leave you with some generic stats and I hope this helped but I like both my plays, I hope you do to.
USC is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Last 2 years totals,
2010 USC 48 Cal 14
2009 USC 30 Cal 3

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 01:19 AM

and yeah Ken Overs are easy peasy I bet em hard, seldom do any unders unless I have overwhelming evidence lol this over should hit easily though, take it.

Ask Whole · 10-13-11, 02:01 AM

impressive record spladle, i want to tail. Wondering what are your top 3 picks for this Saturday?

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 02:16 AM

Shoot I don't know I have too many games, here is a link to my write-ups this week a few people asked about random games so I wrote on em to see if I would possibly play, and some were very convincing. http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...write-ups.html

Anyways if I had to choose 3 and only 3, I think I would go.
NIU/WM Ov 68
Temple -21
Toledo -7
(gosh this actually is hard, I like OSU both the over and to cover a lot, and despite my love for Washington state, its hard to jump off the Stanford gravy train with any spread under 30)
Thats probably my top 5... top 6 if you count OSU as 2 bets. but yeah read some of the write ups, might help you decide but then again you may already know all the info. Either way BOL! Thanks for the post.

gilbert91016 · 10-13-11, 02:29 AM

If u had to pick 3 totals what would u play? Thank for taking the time

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 10:49 AM

Thats a little easier,
Baylor/A&M will simply be in the 80s
WM/NIU will be the in the 70's at least
there is a slew of good 3rd choices here (OSU/TX should go over 64 fairly easily, unless you think OSU isnt going to score 35+ because you know they are going to give up at 28+ at the bare minimum..I know 35+28=63 doesn't cover but Im just saying those are the 2 lowest numbers I see either team scoring)
(PSU/Purdue Under seems very nice, PSU has a pathetic offense only averaging 21 pts a game but the 41 they hung on Indiana state and 34 on E. Michigan help that # out and obviously their defense is nice holding opponents to 10pts per)
If I had to choose one more game though to hang my hat on it would be OU/KS over 72.5 Kansas's lowest combined team total for a game this year has been 66 against McNeese State, after that its 79 vs TT... 79! is their second lowest team total... wow

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 01:27 PM

1 play added
TT/KSU over 60 for 2u

New Ticket
SDSU/AF OV 59
USC -3
USC/CAL OV 58.5
Hawaii -5.5*
Toledo -7
Purdue +11.5
Baylor OV 75.5
Temple -21
OSU -7.5
OSU OV 64.5
NIU/WM OV 68.5
Clemson -9
Stanford -21
OU/KU OV 72
Oregon/ASU OV 66
TT/KSU over 60

rb3b3 · 10-13-11, 02:04 PM

ok im a tailer:-) let me ask you, what would you say is your overall best play for the weekend? you can include tonights and tomorrows games as well if its in there. lookng forward to tailing you!!

spladle08 · 10-13-11, 02:16 PM

Tough question with those 3 team totals I listed earlier seeming like very easy plays.... Im absolutely in love with TT/KSU over 60 I see a few 59.5's out there, I don't know what I am missing I am about to do more research. The game is @ tech, Tech has allowed at least 34 in their last 3 games, and scored at least 40 in 4 of 5 games this year with the lone exception being the 35 they put on Nevada. KSU has scored 28-36-24 against decent teams, I don't see this game being any less than 35-28 I dont know what else to say. Lock it in. and scroll up 2 posts to see the other over I feel are locks... also in my other thread I referenced LSU.
"Look for the LSU over to be flying under the radar, they have only scored under 40 twice this year (35 vs Kentucky and 19 vs MissST) No reason to think Tennessee will slow them down. Total is at 43.5"

I think the oddsmakers expect the public to think "new QB" and draw a direct correlation between Florida and Tennessee, but Tennessee's QB has seen playing time and started most of last year... I think they will put up 14+ at home... but slowing down the LSU attack will be difficult, if Florida hung 33 on the dont expect less from LSU

Ras1112 · 10-13-11, 05:16 PM

Good to see someone doing good and it's not just dumb luck

Appreciative your write ups, it's nice when someone on your side.
USC should cover and over might hit if Cal shows up. They played like garbage so far but I saw something in Oregon game from Cal QB, so he maybe coming around.
BOL!

JMF2479 · 10-13-11, 05:44 PM

Good luck this week