The under is a better move than MT. Anything can happen, but I really like how Miami has been playing as a team.
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biff + zulu, when you guys make your official moves tomorrow on that game be sure to post them here!! i wanna play it but i honestly have no clue so i'm gonna tail one of you guys (or both if you have the same play).
what'd you guys think about OSU nearly throwing it away last night? i about had a stroke.Comment -
now that is a play i could get behind. i love unders when both teams are from second-tier conferences. i could definitely see a 20-16 or 21-17 game. Miami playing with backup QB and d-backs coach is in charge for this game, and Miami's run defense is probably their best attribute. i don't think that both teams score 20. under is worth a look. would like it better at 49 or 49'.Comment -
sure thing. OSU game was gripping, i thought the blocked punt was the end of the world. typical Tressel, never wins pretty. what did they throw, 6 passes in the second half? 2H under is gold when OSU leads against a good team. i'm just glad they won, no complaints, no pictures on a scorecard. in Tressel we trust.Comment -
I think I am going to back Miami OH Under, it seems solid to me. I will probably stick with 1-2 units, I will let you know for sure tomorrow.Comment -
I now officially have 2 units on Miami Oh UNDER 49.5Comment -
I also put this teaser on SBR for fun:
4 Team Teaser:
Saints -4.5
Colts +3.5
Miami OH/MTSU UNDER 54.5
Nevada -1.5
30.00 to win 90.00
What are your feelings on the Nevada/BC game, Biff? I really don't like the -7 or -8 that it is currently at, leaning more towards the OVER at the moment.Comment -
i don't have a very strong read on it, but i also haven't spent much time on it. work's been crazy this week, but i plan to spend a solid few hours tonight on the final bowl games plus NFL wildcard games. line movement says BC, and i'm always extra-cautious taking Nevada or UNLV when the line movement says otherwise (probably just paranoia, but i'm sure that i'm not the only one). will be sure to look at that one tonight and post thoughts here.
if i can get 49' on tonight's under, i'll be on it in a hot minute. best i can get right now is 48', but i should be able to get at least 49 if i'm patient.Comment -
Thanks for the input guys. I know nothing about these teams tonite. So I'll probably just tail that under small - cause I'm sure I'll watch it. Good LuckComment -
My guy has the Under at49.5, I'll put in a wager for you if you want
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3* MTSU/Miami-OH under 49'
and got it at reduced juice on 5D. glad i waited.Comment -
ok boys. i'm in for 2 units. let's do this. thanks for posting it guys! BOLComment -
and the number never reached 50 and is dropping. 49' will beat the closing number, down to 48 in some places. BOL fellas. in the words of Austin Carr, "deeeeeeeeee-fense."Comment -
21pts already. Lack of tackling hurting this totalComment -
3* MTSU/Miami-OH under 49'
15-10 +12.5u.Comment -
leaning A&M and under tonight, will not touch UK/Pitt (think it's a coinflip), leaning under in BC/Nevada, then Auburn on Monday.
zulu, i think that the spread in BC/Nevada is a coinflip. sucks that last night blew your teaser, i think that Nevada is solid teaser material, but don't like the spread much. BC's defense is their strong suit, and they can't keep up with Nevada in a shoot-out, so i think that they'll be shortening the game from the outset. of course, i've been wrong plenty of times....Comment -
the more i look at the Cotton Bowl under, the more i like it, and i'd like A&M a lot more at +3 than the current +2. A&M had some high-scoring games, but they were against weak defenses like Okie State and Baylor. in their 5 games against decent defenses (UNL, Okla, Texas, Arkansas, Missou), all 5 went under, and by a pretty wide margin (average of 17.2, and Texas was the only game where the margin was less than 10). it its 3 games against good offenses (Auburn, Bama, Arkansas), LSU went under in all 3, though not by nearly as wide a margin (11 vs Auburn, 1/2 vs Bama, 2 vs Arkansas). A&M's defense improved a lot over the course of the year in DeRuyter's new 3-4 scheme (allowed 18.2 ppg over final 6 games). LSU's offense is, per usual, horrendous. Ridley's good, and there's plenty of talent outside, but the QB play is terrible as always (and i don't put a ton of stock in the 51 they scored vs ULM nor the 43 vs Ole Miss late in the year). of course, LSU's defense is outstanding as always, and it's worth noting that with the extra time to prepare for bowl games, LSU's defense under Miles has yielded an average of only 12.6 points per bowl game (and only 1 of 5 teams broke 20). i think that we're looking at something between a 20-16/21-17 game and a 24-21/24-17 game.
of course, i said the same thing last night and was wrong, but that game had a lot more big plays that i think anyone expected. i don't think that there will be many big plays tonight. LSU doesn't create many, and they certainly don't allow many. i'm strongly considering the under for 3* or 4*, and it's not to chase last night (i actually added some college hoops leans last minute and ended up slightly positive for the night despite the GoDaddy Bowl under loss). any thoughts?Comment -
Should have gone with my gut and bet on Miami Oh, of well, line up the next one.
Still up at the moment. I have been looking into the TAMU under as well, I haven't made a concrete decision yet. I really appreciate all the people who say they are tailing me and Biff, I wouldn't ever have expected it. Nor would I necessarily suggest it. I do my research on games that I bet on, I hate to lose my money. But on misses, I don't want anyone (including myself) to feel like I lead them into a losing game.
That being said, feel free to tail my picks, but please, do some research so you know what you are getting into. It is always a possibility that I've missed some huge fact (stat, injury, ect) that will impact the outcome. And I don't care if I call it, Biff calls it, or if the mob tells you the fix is in, dont ever, EVER make a bet an outcome that you aren't comfortable with.
Sorry, just a tough loss last night. i'll get off my soapbox now.
For the Sugar Bowl, I like TAMU +2 or +3, but I also like the UNDER. Both teams have defense that seem to complement their opponents strong suite. TAMU has a pretty good pass offense but LSU averages only giving 165 pass yards per game. Also, everyone with eyes can see that rushing is what make the LSU offense be able to move the ball at all, while TAMU only gives away 117 yards rushing.
The big X factor here (what also makes me a little uncomfortable with the spread) is Les Miles. What insane, bullsh*t, probably illegal play will he pull out of his ass if LSU is behind at the end of the game?Comment -
Biff, do you have any sort of lean on the Delaware/E. Wash?Comment -
4* LSU/Texas A&M under 49
for the reasons mentioned above. i talked myself into it by typing out my rationale.Comment -
hey, zulu, i hear you on last night. i liked the under a lot, and never saw that many big plays coming from those teams. a Miami-Ohio game without a field goal is like a day without sunshine. oh well, onward and upward.
also agree with the disclaimer about tailing. i really appreciate the well-wishes and support, and i had losses twice as much when i feel like someone tailed me. main thing i'll say is don't ever switch sides on a pick, just pass on it. if someone likes a pick contra to my lean, i'll let them talk me out of my lean, but never into their pick. because my lean on this game is A&M, there is no way that i will consider taking LSU no matter what anyone tells me. i'm just not playing it ATS.
i haven't looked at Delaware game yet, but should have time to look at it early this afternoon.Comment -
Zulu - we win some we lose some. I tailed last night cause I wanted a little action on a game I was going to watch. Believe me - anything bet in those situations is not going to make a difference one way or the other. I am not much of a capper - so normally I look for reinforcement of my own thoughts. Thanks to you and Biff for your insight.Comment -
zulu, i don't have a strong read on E Washington/Delaware, but if i played it, i'd play Delaware or under. they have some outstanding defensive numbers in a good conference. i saw them play William & Mary earlier this season, and it was an great comeback win for W&M, but they were pretty lucky. Delaware shut down their offense most of the game until the Tribe got a couple of fluky breaks and managed two second half TDs. i also understand that EWU's top RB is not 100%. anyway, that's my two cents, BOL whatever you decide.Comment -
Was never a "Sherwood" fan when he was in GB. And still don't think much of him, but he and A&M hit me in the head with the 2x4 a few times late in the season and I think the SEC gets some extra love here. So I'll go with A&M and tail you guys with the under. Best of luck.Comment -
tough loss on miami boys.. had a nice hit with lsu -3 today.
you guys got anything on nfl tomorrow? sorry, i know this is a bowl thread, just curious.. i might put a couple bones on seattle ML? is that totally outrageous or what haha..Comment -
btw, i tail those whose opinions i regard highly, i regard your guys opinions highly and i appreciate the discussion we've had going here as of late. any time that i do tail i know what i'm getting myself into. gambling is just that - a gamble. i never make a bet without looking into it myself but sometimes reinforcement is helpful in making the call..
BOL going forward to everyone!Comment -
4* LSU/A&M under 49 - LOSER
15-11 +8.1u.
Christ, these last two plays have been disappointing. went out with a group of guys to watch CSU/Butler and Cotton Bowl, and no one went home happy. in looking back, perhaps the numbers that i over-looked/under-valued were LSU's previous point totals in bowl games. up to now, they have scored well above their average in bowl games under Lester, and per usual, i didn't give LSU's offense enough respect (i tend to think of them as an offense with outstanding skill position talent that greatly underachieves). oh well, bitching is for bitches, onward and upward.
i have no interest in wagering on UK/Pitt tonight (just think it's too unpredictable with coaching/QB changes), but i'm going to spend some time this morning on the NFL and will post my thoughts here. i sincerely welcome anyone else's thoughts as well.Comment -
College teams roll over so fast now. It's hard for me to look at stats for past teams in past years. At least in the pros they tend to keep the same foundations.Comment
